Pictures added! Galveston/Harris County Hurricane Workshop

[furluvcats]

Here's our latest....We're going to arrive 5/27 and stay at the Commodore on the Beach. We thought an informal Meet and Greet poolside at the hotel may be fun, (bring swimsuits if you like) and have everyone bring their favorite munchie for snacking and or beverage of choice. This way its inexpensive and casual... What would be a good time for everyone? Posting this on Off Topic as well, to get full exposure...

Furry >^..^<

[galvbay]

I'll be getting to the conference around 8:00 and will need to leave around 12:30 or so to get back to school. I'm sure I will be able to find 'the gang' when I get there. Save me a seat! jim - galvbay

[furluvcats]

UPDATE:
Sorry to say, we're going to have to bow out of the conference. Our non-trusty ole' Caddy is sitting in our driveway, refusing to start. Looks like she'll be getting towed to the shop tomorrow, leaving us only with Brian's midget 2 seater p/u truck! Hope everyone has a great time and take notes for me!

Furry >^..^<

[Houstonia]

Well, the deed has been done and I have told my employers that I have a "doctor's appointment" tomorrow.

So, I will be at the conference.

I will be wearing a white, long-sleeved T-shirt that (in fairly large letters) says "The Agonist" or "Agonist.org" on the back.

I will be looking for Storm2k t-shirts!!

Houstonia....

[vbhoutex]

UPDATE:
Sorry to say, we're going to have to bow out of the conference. Our non-trusty ole' Caddy is sitting in our driveway, refusing to start. Looks like she'll be getting towed to the shop tomorrow, leaving us only with Brian's midget 2 seater p/u truck! Hope everyone has a great time and take notes for me!

Furry >^..^<

Furry that really sucks!!!! I was looking forward to meeting the whole fam damily!! I guess it wasn't supposed to happen this time. There will be other times we can maybe work it out.

It's too bad you can't come down on the 1st. I'll eat a liittle for you. We'll post pictures from both gatherings.

[furluvcats]

David, I know, I'm really bummed too. We plan to visit the island during the summer, so we'll take a rain check, and maybe see ya there for a hurricane party! I miss those things! Have a wonderful time tomorrow at the conference and tell everyone I said hi...

Furrysittinhomewithabrokedowncaddy

[Guest]

Unfortunately I won't be able to attend either. My daughter has an 1/2 day of school and I have to be there to pick her up at 11:45 a.m. - I'm disappointed at the chance of not meeting all of you in person. Maybe next year.

Patricia

[Houstonia]

I want to see that picture of OtherHD, GalvBay, and I standing with the infamous Dr. Neil Frank!!

Thanks VB!

[Houstonia]

Ticka - Are you going to be able to meet us on Sunday when we gather at Shrimp and Stuff??

[Rainband]

Ticka - Are you going to be able to meet us on Sunday when we gather at Shrimp and Stuff??

Wis I could be there..but I am busy...and in florida!!!! HAVE FUN!!!!!

[GalvestonDuck]

Well, the deed has been done and I have told my employers that I have a "doctor's appointment" tomorrow.

Ummmmmmmmmmm

[vbhoutex]

I want to see that picture of OtherHD, GalvBay, and I standing with the infamous Dr. Neil Frank!!

Thanks VB!

I emailed them to you. I need instructions on posting an image(jpg file) on the message board.

[vbhoutex]

The Hurricane workshop today was very interesting. We had several local OCM's in attendance as well as OEM personnel from several of the area couonties and safety officers from many local industries, many which are in evacuation zones. Several private weather vendors were in attendance also. I managed to hand out about 20 Storm2k biz cards to NWS personnel, Dr. Neal Frank, each of the private weather services in attendance, and to Jim Franklin the featured speaker from the NHC.

Both Dr. Neal and Mr. Franklin were more than happy to talk weather.

Mr. Franklin's presentation was about Dropsondes, how much the forecasting has and hasn't improved over the last 25 years and the 5day forecast. HIs basics on the 5 day forecast are that it is meant as a heads up for those that need long lead times to prepare for storms. Past that the watches and warnings will not go up any sooner than they always have at 36 an d24 hours prior to predicted landfall. Where track prediction has improved markedly over the last 25 years due to the use of dropsondes and sattelites, intensity prediction has not improved enough to call it improvement. Interestingly the current margin of error ex[ected with the 5 day forecast is up to 375 miles. Without public announcement last year the 5 day was being beta tested and during Lili in her early stages as a weak ts the margin of error was large, but as she strenthened the margin of error was much smaller. In fact the track prediction of the 5 day was almost right on the money. Another fact I found interesting was that he does not like seasonal forecasts as they really have no impact at all on anything that happens during the season. He did admit though that it looks like the NHC will be very busy this year.

Dr. Neal Frank was also very gracious in answering questions. When I asked him about the La Nina his answer was basically what La Nina? His thoughts at this time are that we are definitely out of the El Nino phase, but he is not so sure we are going into a La Nina phase as opposed to staying in a neutral pattern. Even if the La Nina doesn't develop we are still probably looking at an above average season.

[Guest]

Great info David..........Thanks for sharing that............Intresting answer as well from Dr. Neal Frank about La Nina................

[cycloneye]

I would haved wished to be there and see that conference but I am over 3000 miles away from Texas.But it was interesting that answer from Mr Frank about la nina.

[galvbay]

vb...great posting on the conference! It was fun meeting everyone...maybe next year we can swing a booth of some sort.

[furluvcats]

Wow David, thanks for sharing! Sounds like it was fun and informative...did you all go out afterwards?

[Guest]

David - send the picture to Chad or Marshall and they will post it on the site for all to see.

Patricia

[Houstonia]

But for the short time I listened, it was interesting. Franklin seemed doubtful about the true need for 5 day forecasting, though he acknowledged that it's necessary for some companies. He was very clear about the margins of error being large in some cases.

I went to the breakout session on Evacuations. This was interesting. Some of the highlights included the fact that evacuations in Texas can only be recommended, not forced. The best that law enforcement agencies can do is prevent people from returning home once they leave.

The head of Harris County's office of emergency management said that the problem with evacuees heading north from Brazoria and Galveston Counties is that in most cases people in southern Harris County are leaving as well. He wants people to realize that they shouldn't stop in Harris County--that they need to keep going north to Montgomery County. He also said that since routes like I-10 flood, people shouldn't count on roads like that to get them out of town. They need to have planned alternative routes.

With the redrawing of the flood maps this summer, it just messes things up more. All of the emergency management heads (Galveston, Brazoria and Harris counties) repeated and stressed the fact that if you live in the Gulf Coast area and you don't know what the weather is doing and you don't know that you should be evacuating or getting ready for a storm--it's basically your own fault. They really stressed personal responsibility.

Ah, by the way, they gave a number for people in Harris County to find out if they are now in the flood plane (the new maps are being drawn, but someone told me that they wouldn't be out till later in the summer). For Harris County residents that number is 713 956 3000.

Someone asked about the reverse 9-1-1 being used to warn people. The Harris County guy said that that's only going to be used in case of terrorist attack, Galveston County said they would use it for cases like Allison, which blow up quickly, but not for established storms, and Brazoria County is the same as Galveston County.

Finally, the woman from Galveston County's office of emergency management was asked, in a worst-case scenario (meaning a cat 5 hurricane bearing down on Hou/Galv) how long would it take to evacuate the island.

She responded that in that case--to evacuate Galveston, Brazoria, and low-lying Harris County areas--assuming that all roads were open and no construction or other problems--basically with everything working in their favor, it would take 33 hours to evacuate.

Interestingly enough, The representative from Orange County's OEM said that it would take 33 hours to evacuate their whole county and they have less people than the Hou/Galv area. I think there are less than a million people in their county. However they don't have any north-south Interstates to help them in their evacuation.

Sorry this was so long!

[Houstonia]

That was important to me--

Galveston/Brazoria counties reinforced the fact that they evacuate due to flooding due to storm surge. They don't evacuate for wind or urban flooding.

Consider a situation like Allison where Houston flooded so badly--what if thousands of residents from Galveston and Brazoria were trying to head north during a situation like that. The potential for catastrophe is pretty obvious.