Predict 2006 landfalls, dates, and level of destruction

[Cookiely]

Three major hurricanes in the GOM. One major hurricane on the East Coast.

[TSmith274]

Well, last year at this time, I predicted a major hurricane would make landfall at Buras, La. It was a joke because I had just built a house down there. But, it came true with Katrina... landfall right at Buras, La. So, I'm stayin away from these predictions this year.

[KWT]

Alberto- Weak TS, max winds something like 40-45mph, hitting Hispanola, flash flooding and lots of deaths due to this on high terrean, early June

Beryl- category 2, Max winds about 100mph but out to sea. Early July

Chris- Category 1, Max winds about 80mph, out to sea, similar to Beryl. Also early July, maybe a bermuda hit.

Debby- Strong category 2, North florida hit, max winds about 110mph, about 5-700 million dollars worth of damage, late July

Ernesto- Weak TS, out to sea max winds about 40mph, late July

Florence-Another Ophelia type storm, forms to the east of Florida and heads northwards, could be a threat to north Carolina, category-2 at 105mph. Early August

Gordon- The first major of the season, a re-curver and the first Cape verde system but still a danger to Bermuda, Category- 3, 125mph winds. Early August

Helene-Just about hurricane and a quick former, abit like a weaker Beta in location, max winds of 75mph. Mid August

Isaac- Another major Cape Verde system, track very similar to Isabel though stronger at landfall, weaker at peak thankfully but still a cat-4 at 140mph, landfall at 120mph. mid August

Joyce- A really powerful one, forms in the Caribbean, a similar track to Emily this year but hits Texas very hard indeed, close to Galveston which is placed in the NE eyewall, massive damage compareable to Katrina and possibly greater. At peak a 175mph category-5 in the gulf of Mexico with pressure at 899mbs, landfalling as a 135mph hurricane just south-west of Galveston, $100's billions of damage possibly in Texas. Late August.

Kirk- Strong category-1 re-curver, a cape verde system orginally then floats around the atlantic for a good 2 weeks, max at 90mph. Late August

Leslie- A quickly spun up system, small and forms just to the east of the lesser Antilles. goes on to hit Puetro Rico fairly hard as a minimal category-1 at 75mph, before being being ripped compeltely apart by shear. Early September.

Michael- Final cape Verde system, another powerful system, ,sent on a bee-hive towards south Carolina, very powerful at peak, just under category-5 at 155mph, makes landfall at 105mph with Charleston close to the eye. Early September

Nadine- moderate TS that forms in the Mid-Atlantic, max winds 55mph. mid-September

Oscar- Similar to Nadine, slightly stronger at 60mph. Mid September

Patty- 75mph hurricane out to sea, does get quite far east though, possiblty for Azores landfall. Late September

Rafael- Starts in the Bay of Campeche, very quick to form and makes it breifly to hurricane status at 75mph. late September.

Sandy- Forms several miles east of Florida, stalls and gets upto category-2, tries to make landfall in Georgia but re-curves enough before eye makes landfall, max winds upto 110mph. Late September

Tony- Mid atlantic weakeling, lasts just one advisory before dying. Mid October.

Valerie- Real suprise package this one, but extremely dangerous. forms in the southern reaches of the Gulf of mexico and spins up very fast, and stalls with nothing to move it for now, during the 36hrs it stalls atmospheric condtions become next to perfect and it bombs, dropping 70mbs in 24hrs making it upto category-5 and winds at 170mph, pressure down to 904mbs, re-curves ENE after stall towards Florida extremely fast, still very powerful and makes a landfall about 20 miles north of Charlotte Harbour destroying the area, hitting as a 155mph category-4, also some major floods in Tampa region due to postion of the eye, comprasions made between Charley and Valerie, though Valerie is a fair size larger, though still not that large compared to other systems. Late October.

William- Weak TS in the Mid-atlantic

Alpha- yes I believe we will see Alpha pop up again, this time I think it may well make hurricane status, could be a threat to Bermuda, 75mph hurricane.


Well thats what I think, this season would probably be known more so then the 05 season simply because of more larger hits and ALOT of hurricanes, 16 overall though several are only just hurricanes.
big hitters are Valerie and Joyce though several cat-1 and cat-2 landfalls on N.Florida and the Carolinas. In terms of ACE, I think this would actually top the 05 season, simply because of many cape Verde systems, possibly with a ACe upto 270-280.

[hicksta]

Loving the joyce prediction. If it did that i woulndt have a house.

Alberto- Weak TS, max winds something like 40-45mph, hitting Hispanola, flash flooding and lots of deaths due to this on high terrean, early June

Beryl- category 2, Max winds about 100mph but out to sea. Early July

Chris- Category 1, Max winds about 80mph, out to sea, similar to Beryl. Also early July, maybe a bermuda hit.

Debby- Strong category 2, North florida hit, max winds about 110mph, about 5-700 million dollars worth of damage, late July

Ernesto- Weak TS, out to sea max winds about 40mph, late July

Florence-Another Ophelia type storm, forms to the east of Florida and heads northwards, could be a threat to north Carolina, category-2 at 105mph. Early August

Gordon- The first major of the season, a re-curver and the first Cape verde system but still a danger to Bermuda, Category- 3, 125mph winds. Early August

Helene-Just about hurricane and a quick former, abit like a weaker Beta in location, max winds of 75mph. Mid August

Isaac- Another major Cape Verde system, track very similar to Isabel though stronger at landfall, weaker at peak thankfully but still a cat-4 at 140mph, landfall at 120mph. mid August

Joyce- A really powerful one, forms in the Caribbean, a similar track to Emily this year but hits Texas very hard indeed, close to Galveston which is placed in the NE eyewall, massive damage compareable to Katrina and possibly greater. At peak a 175mph category-5 in the gulf of Mexico with pressure at 899mbs, landfalling as a 135mph hurricane just south-west of Galveston, $100's billions of damage possibly in Texas. Late August.

Kirk- Strong category-1 re-curver, a cape verde system orginally then floats around the atlantic for a good 2 weeks, max at 90mph. Late August

Leslie- A quickly spun up system, small and forms just to the east of the lesser Antilles. goes on to hit Puetro Rico fairly hard as a minimal category-1 at 75mph, before being being ripped compeltely apart by shear. Early September.

Michael- Final cape Verde system, another powerful system, ,sent on a bee-hive towards south Carolina, very powerful at peak, just under category-5 at 155mph, makes landfall at 105mph with Charleston close to the eye. Early September

Nadine- moderate TS that forms in the Mid-Atlantic, max winds 55mph. mid-September

Oscar- Similar to Nadine, slightly stronger at 60mph. Mid September

Patty- 75mph hurricane out to sea, does get quite far east though, possiblty for Azores landfall. Late September

Rafael- Starts in the Bay of Campeche, very quick to form and makes it breifly to hurricane status at 75mph. late September.

Sandy- Forms several miles east of Florida, stalls and gets upto category-2, tries to make landfall in Georgia but re-curves enough before eye makes landfall, max winds upto 110mph. Late September

Tony- Mid atlantic weakeling, lasts just one advisory before dying. Mid October.

Valerie- Real suprise package this one, but extremely dangerous. forms in the southern reaches of the Gulf of mexico and spins up very fast, and stalls with nothing to move it for now, during the 36hrs it stalls atmospheric condtions become next to perfect and it bombs, dropping 70mbs in 24hrs making it upto category-5 and winds at 170mph, pressure down to 904mbs, re-curves ENE after stall towards Florida extremely fast, still very powerful and makes a landfall about 20 miles north of Charlotte Harbour destroying the area, hitting as a 155mph category-4, also some major floods in Tampa region due to postion of the eye, comprasions made between Charley and Valerie, though Valerie is a fair size larger, though still not that large compared to other systems. Late October.

William- Weak TS in the Mid-atlantic

Alpha- yes I believe we will see Alpha pop up again, this time I think it may well make hurricane status, could be a threat to Bermuda, 75mph hurricane.


Well thats what I think, this season would probably be known more so then the 05 season simply because of more larger hits and ALOT of hurricanes, 16 overall though several are only just hurricanes.
big hitters are Valerie and Joyce though several cat-1 and cat-2 landfalls on N.Florida and the Carolinas. In terms of ACE, I think this would actually top the 05 season, simply because of many cape Verde systems, possibly with a ACe upto 270-280.

[JonathanBelles]

are you guys just taking wild guesses on this?

[HurricaneJoe22]

what else would it be but a wild guess??! No one can know this stuff...NO ONE

[JonathanBelles]

no there are probaly psychics who could

[brunota2003]

ok, all but 20 hit NC, 17 of the 20 recurve, and the other 3 hit florida... oh, and 20 form, see there is a method to my madness...

[ROCK]

Geeez, KWT you must not like Galveston at all. I expect a couple of threats this year but nothing as harsh as that.

Hicksta- all of Seabrook would be flatten by a C5 storm surge. I have seen the sloth model and its not pretty for you guys down there.

[mike815]

i guess everyone hates fl and galvelston lol

[JonathanBelles]

i myself hate fl

[HurricaneJoe22]

fact, psychics can't know what's going to happen...they can only guess with the best of 'em....and that's a fact

[mike815]

thank u fl sux lol good point

[Extremeweatherguy]

KWT's predictions were good...but here are mine:

Alberto- Becomes a 60mph storm in the Gulf of Mexico and makes landfall in Tampa. Minor damage. Early June.

Beryl- Becomes a 40mph storm in the Caribbean, but quickly dies due to shear. mid June.

Chris- The first hurricane of the season. Forms in the Bahamas and manages to wrap into a 75mph Cat. 1 before making landfall in Cocoa Beach, FL. Less than a billion in damages. Early July.

Debby- First major storm of the Season. Forms in the Caribbean and tracks to the Gulf. In the Gulf it becomes a 120mph Cat. 3 before making landfall on the Florida Panhandle near Tallahassee. 4-8 billion in damages. Mid July.

Ernesto- Forms in the eastern Atlantic and meanders for days. Reaches 70mph TS at max. Never makes landfall. Mid July.

Florence-Florence forms in the eastern Atlantic and becomes a Cat. 5 storm. She weakens to a Cat. 4 once reaching the Bahamas. Once 20 miles offshore the Florida east coast she turns north (Fl east coast still sees 90+mph gusts). She then tracks north and makes landfall on the NC/SC border as a Cat. 3. After making landfall she tracks toward the NE where she dumps flooding rains. 5-15 billion in damages. Late July.

Gordon- Gorden forms in the open Atlantic, but re-curves out to sea and is never a threat. Max winds reach 100mph for a point. Early August.

Helene- Forms in the bay of campeche and reaches 85mph before making landfall in Mexico. Early August.

Isaac- Forms just off the coast of Africa and makes a long track toward the islands. After crossing the islands Issac heads through the Caribbean and grazes the Yucatan as a Cat. 3 with 130mph winds. It re-curves into the Gulf and makes landfall in the keys as a Cat. 3 and then SW Florida as a Cat. 2. Issac tracks up the FL peninsula with 66mph gusts reported when it passes over Orlando, and gusts to 41mph in Jacksonville as it is dying. 5 billion in damages. Late August.

Joyce- (I, like KWT also feel that this one is destined for TX). I think that Joyce forms in the Caribbean, reaches Cat. 4 status and then moves into the Gulf. In the gulf she explodes into a Cat. 5 monster and sub 900Mb pressures are observed. Sustained winds reach 175mph. Right before Joyce makes landfall near Galveston she weakens to a strong Cat. 4, but is powerful enough to destroy the Island. Inland, in downtown Houston, they record sustained winds over 105mph and gusts to 135mph. Even in north Houston gusts to 120mph are observed. Joyce finally dies in the panhandle of Texas as a TD. damages top 75 billion. Early September.

Kirk- Forms near Bermuda and becomes a 50mph storm. Kirk only lasts 3 advisories. Early September.

Leslie- Leslie forms off the east coast of Florida and becomes a Cat. 2 as it grazes NC. Leslie finally makes landfall in NYC as a strong Cat. 1 storm. Damages top 20 billion, mainly because of damages to NYC. It is the most expensive Cat. 1 landfall ever. Mid September.

Michael- Michael becomes a 40mph TS in the Gulf and makes landfall in Louisiana. Top gusts recorded on land are only 29mph and less than an inch of rain falls. No storm surge. No damages. Mid September.

Nadine- Forms in the middle Atlantic and spins around for days. She briefly reached Cat. 3 intensity. Mid September.

Oscar- Oscar forms off of Africa and in a surprise move re-curves and hits Africa. Late September.

Patty- Patty forms in the southern Gulf and becomes a 50mph TS before making landfall in Corpus Christi, TX. Less than a billion in damages. Late September.

Rafael- Starts in the Florida Straights and heads north making landfall in the keys as a 40mph TS. Early October.

Sandy- Forms 30 miles west of Tampa and sits there for days. As it churns, winds reach 100mph. In Tampa they see increasing rain and winds for days. Wind gusts reach hurricane force by day 3. Then, Sandy moves south as a cold front approaches and finally turns east making landfall near Naples as a weakening Cat. 1. 3-7 billion in damages. Mid October.

Tony- Becomes a Cat. 2 storm in the Atlantic. Affects no one. Mid October.

Valerie- Valerie is a monster of a storm. She forms in the Caribbean and moves into the Gulf. Though only reaching Cat. 3 strength, her wind field is insanely large. Hurricane force winds extend out 300 miles from the center and TS force winds go out 600 miles! She makes landfall on the Texas/Mexico border, but TS force winds are felt north to Houston and the Gulf coast and Hurricane force winds take over a good part of the Texas coast. She has the largest wind field of any storm in history and since her eye hits Texas, she becomes the only TX land falling hurricane in late October. Damages top 30 billion due to the wide impact.

William- Briefly reaches TS strength off the Georgia coast, but quickly moves inland and dies. No damage. Early November.

Alpha- IF Alpha forms then I think it will be a 50mph TS somewhere in the Caribbean. Mid November?

Beta - IF Beta forms I think it will be an 80mph Hurricane somewhere in the Atlantic. Late November/early December?

**These are all just gut feelings and should not be taken seriously. Any real occurrence of these scenarios is all coincidence**

[ROCK]

KWT's predictions were good...but here are mine:

Alberto- Becomes a 60mph storm in the Gulf of Mexico and makes landfall in Tampa. Minor damage. Early June.

Beryl- Becomes a 40mph storm in the Caribbean, but quickly dies due to shear. mid June.

Chris- The first hurricane of the season. Forms in the Bahamas and manages to wrap into a 75mph Cat. 1 before making landfall in Cocoa Beach, FL. Less than a billion in damages. Early July.

Debby- First major storm of the Season. Forms in the Caribbean and tracks to the Gulf. In the Gulf it becomes a 120mph Cat. 3 before making landfall on the Florida Panhandle near Tallahassee. 4-8 billion in damages. Mid July.

Ernesto- Forms in the eastern Atlantic and meanders for days. Reaches 70mph TS at max. Never makes landfall. Mid July.

Florence-Florence forms in the eastern Atlantic and becomes a Cat. 5 storm. She weakens to a Cat. 4 once reaching the Bahamas. Once 20 miles offshore the Florida east coast she turns north (Fl east coast still sees 90+mph gusts). She then tracks north and makes landfall on the NC/SC border as a Cat. 3. After making landfall she tracks toward the NE where she dumps flooding rains. 5-15 billion in damages. Late July.

Gordon- Gorden forms in the open Atlantic, but re-curves out to sea and is never a threat. Max winds reach 100mph for a point. Early August.

Helene- Forms in the bay of campeche and reaches 85mph before making landfall in Mexico. Early August.

Isaac- Forms just off the coast of Africa and makes a long track toward the islands. After crossing the islands Issac heads through the Caribbean and grazes the Yucatan as a Cat. 3 with 130mph winds. It re-curves into the Gulf and makes landfall in the keys as a Cat. 3 and then SW Florida as a Cat. 2. Issac tracks up the FL peninsula with 66mph gusts reported when it passes over Orlando, and gusts to 41mph in Jacksonville as it is dying. 5 billion in damages. Late August.

Joyce- (I, like KWT also feel that this one is destined for TX). I think that Joyce forms in the Caribbean, reaches Cat. 4 status and then moves into the Gulf. In the gulf she explodes into a Cat. 5 monster and sub 900Mb pressures are observed. Sustained winds reach 175mph. Right before Joyce makes landfall near Galveston she weakens to a strong Cat. 4, but is powerful enough to destroy the Island. Inland, in downtown Houston, they record sustained winds over 105mph and gusts to 135mph. Even in north Houston gusts to 120mph are observed. Joyce finally dies in the panhandle of Texas as a TD. damages top 75 billion. Early September.

Kirk- Forms near Bermuda and becomes a 50mph storm. Kirk only lasts 3 advisories. Early September.

Leslie- Leslie forms off the east coast of Florida and becomes a Cat. 2 as it grazes NC. Leslie finally makes landfall in NYC as a strong Cat. 1 storm. Damages top 20 billion, mainly because of damages to NYC. It is the most expensive Cat. 1 landfall ever. Mid September.

Michael- Michael becomes a 40mph TS in the Gulf and makes landfall in Louisiana. Top gusts recorded on land are only 29mph and less than an inch of rain falls. No storm surge. No damages. Mid September.

Nadine- Forms in the middle Atlantic and spins around for days. She briefly reached Cat. 3 intensity. Mid September.

Oscar- Oscar forms off of Africa and in a surprise move re-curves and hits Africa. Late September.

Patty- Patty forms in the southern Gulf and becomes a 50mph TS before making landfall in Corpus Christi, TX. Less than a billion in damages. Late September.

Rafael- Starts in the Florida Straights and heads north making landfall in the keys as a 40mph TS. Early October.

Sandy- Forms 30 miles west of Tampa and sits there for days. As it churns, winds reach 100mph. In Tampa they see increasing rain and winds for days. Wind gusts reach hurricane force by day 3. Then, Sandy moves south as a cold front approaches and finally turns east making landfall near Naples as a weakening Cat. 1. 3-7 billion in damages. Mid October.

Tony- Becomes a Cat. 2 storm in the Atlantic. Affects no one. Mid October.

Valerie- Valerie is a monster of a storm. She forms in the Caribbean and moves into the Gulf. Though only reaching Cat. 3 strength, her wind field is insanely large. Hurricane force winds extend out 300 miles from the center and TS force winds go out 600 miles! She makes landfall on the Texas/Mexico border, but TS force winds are felt north to Houston and the Gulf coast and Hurricane force winds take over a good part of the Texas coast. She has the largest wind field of any storm in history and since her eye hits Texas, she becomes the only TX land falling hurricane in late October. Damages top 30 billion due to the wide impact.

William- Briefly reaches TS strength off the Georgia coast, but quickly moves inland and dies. No damage. Early November.

Alpha- IF Alpha forms then I think it will be a 50mph TS somewhere in the Caribbean. Mid November?

Beta - IF Beta forms I think it will be an 80mph Hurricane somewhere in the Atlantic. Late November/early December?

**These are all just gut feelings and should not be taken seriously. Any real occurrence of these scenarios is all coincidence**

Seems alot of people hate Galveston or for that matter every major / minor city on the Gulf coast and eastern seaboard. Geezzz.

For Joyce to make that sort of an impact Extreme it would have to be moving really fast since DT is 50-60 miles inland.

[mike815]

lol yup its tru fl sux bad lol

[TS Zack]

This is the biggest -removed- post ever made on Storm 2K...

[mike815]

yeah it may not exsit in the next decade

[wxwatcher91]

right now Im thinking:
..............ns.....h.....mh.....cat5s
January =>0, =>0, =>0, =>0
February =>0, =>0, =>0, =>0
March =>0, =>0, =>0, =>0
April =>0, =>0, =>0, =>0
May =>0, =>0, =>0, =>0
June >0, =>0, =>0, =>0
July >2, >0, =>0,=>0
August >3, >1, >0, =>0
September >4, >2, >1, >0
October >3, >3, >2, >0
November >2, >1, =>0, =>0
December >0, =>0, =>0, =>0

total >14, >7, >3, >0

US lanfalling systems: >4, >2, >1, =>0

basically Im playing it safe and giving it a range lol
I think that this year will be above the 1886-2005 average and will most likely continue the 1995-2005 activity

the range of what wont suprise me this year:
14 to 50 named storms
7 to 30 hurricanes
3 to 15 major hurricanes
0 to 6 category 5 hurricanes

basically outside of that range I will be suprised.

I think that like the past 3 years, 2006 will have at least 1 category 5 hurricane...
I think that a hurricane with cat 5 history will make landfall but at cat 2 to cat 4 intensity

I think there will be at least two hurricanes that make landfall at cat 3 status or above.

I say there is a 99% chance of reaching 14 named storms
50% chance of reaching Alpha
and a 30% chance of reliving 2005

the most likely senario for 2006 I think is a 2004-type season

oh and I also think that the I-storm (this year Isaac) will have revenge for the fishy I-storm (Irene) in 2005

[JonathanBelles]

nice I storm prediction