Any signs of a pattern change?

[Air Force Met]

yup big bunch of noncence

It's spelled "nonsense."

[mike815]

so hit wrong key also horrible speller horrible dont use spell check sry lol

[ETXHAMXYL]

The major forecasts sites don't show any signs of any pattern change to cold next week or 15 days out. Looks like 60's will prevail but may get down to middle 50's/30's at night. I don't think that is a Cold Blast by any means. Also most of them have us in the same dry windy warm pattern.
I guess I'll believe it when I see the temps fall or something falls from the sky to believe any pattern change will take place anytime soon. Its almost like we are under a Wintertime Mexican Plune? Cap?
I just hate the wind...bad hair days!!!

[mike815]

lol today in fl horrible hair days but i dont have much hair to worry about lol

[Air Force Met]

so hit wrong key also horrible speller horrible dont use spell check sry lol

I was just being critical for no good reason...and submitting a post with no substantial value to the conversation at hand...sort of like yours.



Now...if you have a meteorological reason you think it's nonsense, then that would be worthy of a critical post. Otherwise, it's just annoying.

[Portastorm]

The major forecasts sites don't show any signs of any pattern change to cold next week or 15 days out. Looks like 60's will prevail but may get down to middle 50's/30's at night. I don't think that is a Cold Blast by any means. Also most of them have us in the same dry windy warm pattern.
I guess I'll believe it when I see the temps fall or something falls from the sky to believe any pattern change will take place anytime soon. Its almost like we are under a Wintertime Mexican Plune? Cap?
I just hate the wind...bad hair days!!!

The NWS focuses on 3-5 days and has enough trouble there alone! I wouldn't look too closely at their long-range forecasts ... you need to be more tuned into pro mets who specialize in medium to long range forecasting and know the trends and what to look for.

You've seen what our own Air Force Met has written as well as the venerable Don Sutherland and SE Texas' "Jeff." Also, most of us quote Accuweather's Bastardi. All of them are saying a turn to more seasonal and perhaps below normal temps look more and more likely. Guaranteed? Heck no, but more likely indeed!

[mike815]

right it should but who knows

[gboudx]

Well our rain chances for Monday went from 50% to 30%, now to 20%. They may just disappear completely. Hopefully some of you other Texas posters get a few raindrops.

[Portastorm]

Well our rain chances for Monday went from 50% to 30%, now to 20%. They may just disappear completely. Hopefully some of you other Texas posters get a few raindrops.

Same depressing trend here in south central Texas. We're down to 20% POPs for Monday-Tuesday.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The major forecasts sites don't show any signs of any pattern change to cold next week or 15 days out. Looks like 60's will prevail but may get down to middle 50's/30's at night. I don't think that is a Cold Blast by any means. Also most of them have us in the same dry windy warm pattern.
I guess I'll believe it when I see the temps fall or something falls from the sky to believe any pattern change will take place anytime soon. Its almost like we are under a Wintertime Mexican Plune? Cap?
I just hate the wind...bad hair days!!!

yes, sites like accuweather do not show much in the way of cold weather, because Accuweather's local forecasts are not made by pro mets...but rather computers. Thier 15 day forecasts are highly variable beyond day 7, and should not be trusted. What you have to watch more are the models themselves, discussions from pro mets, and the overall pattern at hand. Just because accuweather may have a warm forecast, if you read JB's coloumn (who works for accuweather), you would learn that he expects much colder weather down the road. Overall, we are heading out of this warm pattern back into a colder pattern which could end up as cold or colder than early and mid Decembers cold pattern. As for the short term...the coldest air since before christmas is on the way the mid part of this week. Though NWS forecasts do not seem too cold, they will likely drop a bit. North of Houston I would expect Tuesday to not get above 50 with a hard freeze Tuesday night. In Houston I would expect a high below 55 on Tuesday with a low below 30 on Tuesday night. And south of Houston I would expect a high below 60 on Tuesday with a low below 35 at night. As for far southern areas (like Brownsville), I would expect a high below 63 on Tuesday and a low below 38. This will only be a taste of the cold weather expected to come later this month.[/img]

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well our rain chances for Monday went from 50% to 30%, now to 20%. They may just disappear completely. Hopefully some of you other Texas posters get a few raindrops.

Same depressing trend here in south central Texas. We're down to 20% POPs for Monday-Tuesday.

hmm thats weird. we still have 60% chances here in Houston on Monday along with a threat of severe storms.

[mike815]

yeah i saw that with next front

[gboudx]

Well, you're just about right on top of the GOM. We're a ways inland and the return flow may not be very good and/or may only reach East Texas.

[ETXHAMXYL]

Our local mets in Dallas have us in the upper 40's near 50 but then shoot back up to the 70's again by the weekend. Rain mainly east of the I-35 corridor mainly the farther east the higher the rain chances. No mention in the NWS forecast of any frozen stuff, in fact they are saying 70 Monday and 58 on Tuesday then again back up in the 60's for the extended period. No hint from them of anything really cold coming down the pike either.

Also Question: Will the Ash up in Alaska make an impact on the cold weather up there and will it affect the pattern change? My sister lives in Homer and they are getting ash from the volcano about 75 miles to their north. She said they are getting colder than what they have been in the upper 30's and 40's very warm for them.

[mike815]

yeah good quest. not too much of an impact it depends

[Extremeweatherguy]

Our local mets in Dallas have us in the upper 40's near 50 but then shoot back up to the 70's again by the weekend. Rain mainly east of the I-35 corridor mainly the farther east the higher the rain chances. No mention in the NWS forecast of any frozen stuff, in fact they are saying 70 Monday and 58 on Tuesday then again back up in the 60's for the extended period. No hint from them of anything really cold coming down the pike either.

Also Question: Will the Ash up in Alaska make an impact on the cold weather up there and will it affect the pattern change? My sister lives in Homer and they are getting ash from the volcano about 75 miles to their north. She said they are getting colder than what they have been in the upper 30's and 40's very warm for them.

Sometimes large erruptions can be known to have a cooling affect on the earth. Back in the 80s a volcanic erruption put the earth in a 2-year period of cooler weather due to the ash blocking some of the sunlight...kind of like a very mini-ice age. We shall see if this erruption is big enough and long enough lasting for anything like that... I also know that back in the 1800s there was an erruption big enough for a "year without a summer". The erruption caused the coldest summer in centuries across the world. There was frost in the north during July, and crops would not grow up there...that would have meant that there would be cold fronts in the summer capable of 60s, and 70s in Texas during that summer. Now a repeat of a year like that is very improbable. Truthfully, I feel that this series of erruptions will only cause minor impacts to most of the world.

[mike815]

right it can

[jasons2k]

And FWIW I can't for the life of me see why anyone would actually WANT something like that to happen. Dead plants aside (and boy there would be plenty) that's just plain miserable. Brrrrr. Yuck. Take a ski trip but don't wish such awful - and I do mean awful - bone-chilling cold for this normally mild city.

Well for one thing, it would kill off almost all mosquitos around here, leading to lesser amounts for summer!

That's a misconception. A freeze will kill mosquito larvae and have a short term impact, but little effect on the summer. Just ask anyone who lives in Alaska - some of the worst mosquito swarms in the world come right out of the tundra.

[jasons2k]

extra post sorry

[dashwildwood]

hey guys im new here so dont rip me a new one if you disagree with me please but i just wanted to throw some stuff in here, i too have been reading JB's for about 4 years now and other than his dibacle of a forecast last winter i think hes done an awesome job, also anyone who believes this pattern will stick right through the rest of winter and it will consistantly be warm might be more -removed- than anything. I have been reading this board since I found it a month ago along with other boards and it seems that when there is a pattern shift everybody wants to jump on it and scream COLDEST WINTER EVER or WARMEST WINTER EVER because if we all look back to just a month ago how many media outlets and message boards were saying that the cold pattern would last forever? and now those same people are saying warm forever. Sometimes I think long range forecasting falls turns into a situation like people being bandwagon fans in sports. They ride it until the wheels fall off and they say, o wait I was saying the other way. The reason we had the pattern change back in December was in part because the airmass between the arctic i guess u could call it and the US had become fairly uniform which helped level out the trough in the east and the ridge in the west, and yes i do know there were other factors like the NAO going positive and such. But as the arctic and Canada grows colder because the ridiculously cold air from Asia has started and will continue to trickle into that area once again we will see the temperature gradient in the latitudes (or is it longitudes? i dont remember) will increase and since nature doesnt like these huge stratifications the cold air will have essentially no place to go but into the US. Where? no idea. How much cold air? no idea. Eventually cold air is going to flood southward it might just not be what us winter weather lovers are looking for.