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#101 Postby x-y-no » Mon Jan 16, 2006 12:20 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:**I mean, come on, would this stuff really be happening if we were deep in global warming? I mean the coldest air in 20+ years in Asia and 10+ years in Europe does not happen everyday, and certaintly shouldn't be happening if the world was warming. Just a few thoughts...**


There's absolutely no reason it wouldn't be.

Once again: LOCAL IS NOT GLOBAL.
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#102 Postby kenl01 » Mon Jan 16, 2006 12:54 pm

x-y-no wrote:
kenl01 wrote:A quick note:

It's pretty much lunacy here how some people have turned this snow topic into an irrelevent environmental issue. This topic is about snow and cold. That's what's important !


Excuse me, but your original rant (subesquently edited) made the claim that the local and regional cold events described were evidence against AGW. So if you're upset about the topic of this thread, you have yourself to blame.

And NO - the growing glaciers in New Zealand are not caused by American made hairsprays, ok ???????



Excuse me, but for the most part, you have no idea what your talking about. I just don't put much credibility into the IPCC. I have no use for them whatsoever. Plus you have to realize that many regional areas and local areas are getting more extreme cold and snow. Plus according to the Plant Hardiness Zone Map (from the department of agricuture) shows it getting colder since 1960 in the US, especially midwest and south. That's not just local ok, that's regional over a long period. Plus John Daly had some excellent sites they monitor since the 1700's - many stations (about 50 %) have turned colder since that time.

This guy here never gets it..................
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#103 Postby kenl01 » Mon Jan 16, 2006 1:02 pm

It's actually getting colder
Average annual temperatures have declined more than 10ºF during the past 40 years in many states, including Mississippi, Texas, Ohio, Alabama, Missouri, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Indiana, Florida, Arkansas, Georgia, and Kentucky. See Plant Hardiness Zone Maps.

In Illinois, temperatures have been falling for several decades, says Illinois State Climatologist. See http://www.sws.uiuc.edu/atmos/statecli/ ... nge/cc.htm

In Minneapolis, average July temperatures (which are critical for plant growth) have fallen 6ºF since mid-century.

In Kalispell, Montana, average July temperatures have fallen 6ºF since mid-century.

In Bismarck, ND, average July temperatures have fallen 8.89ºF since mid-century.

In Spokane, WA, average July temperatures have fallen 5.5ºF since mid-century. Average January temperatures declined an incredible 16ºF.

In Umea, Sweden, average July temperatures have fallen 3.24ºF since mid-century.

In Asheville, NC (home of the National Climatic Data Center), average annual temperatures have declined 1.1ºF since 1946.

http://www.iceagenow.com/PlantHardinessMaps.htm
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#104 Postby x-y-no » Mon Jan 16, 2006 1:12 pm

kenl01 wrote:Excuse me, but for the most part, you have no idea what your talking about. I just don't put much credibility into the IPCC. I have no use for them whatsoever.


So, you reject out of hand the collaborative effort of thousands of climate scientists to put together a comprehensive view of the current state of our understanding, and then you have the chutzpah to tell me I have no idea what I'm talking about?

:roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol:

Plus you have to realize that many regional areas and local areas are getting more extreme cold and snow.


And many areas are having extreme warm events. For example Australia.

Plus according to the Plant Hardiness Zone Map (from the department of agricuture) shows it getting colder since 1960 in the US, especially midwest and south. That's not just local ok, that's regional over a long period.


So you'll selectively accept evidence for a long-term regional trend, but reject evidence for a long-term global trend? Where's the logic in that?


Plus John Daly had some excellent sites they monitor since the 1700's - many stations (about 50 %) have turned colder since that time.


And because this supports the conclusion you wish to reach, you'll uncritically accept this data? Where is the analysis showing that their selection of stations is a better indicator of the global trend than the research which shows a distinct global warming trend?


This guy here never gets it..................


Don't give up on yourself yet.
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#105 Postby x-y-no » Mon Jan 16, 2006 1:23 pm



Where is this alleged dramatic shift south of colder zones?

The main difference I see between these maps is that they went into somewhat finer scale drawing the zone boundaries in the 1990 version, but the general position of the zones is very similar.

The text of that page picks out a few states where the map is somewhat shifted south. But one could do the same thing the other way. Look at Nevada, for instance - in 1960 it was mostly in zones 4 and 5, in 1990 none is in 4, and most is in zones 6 through 8.
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#106 Postby gigabite » Mon Jan 16, 2006 5:05 pm

x-y-no wrote:...The main difference I see between these maps is that they went into somewhat finer scale drawing the zone boundaries in the 1990 version, but the general position of the zones is very similar...


I layered them in photoshoped and flipped back and forth for a while. It looks like there has been some shifting.

Contouring is a personal thing variations can occur over the same data just by changing operators, and the distance between data points this lends itself to opinion.

I concur with kenl01 on some points however. This is some research I looked up last year.

Not Gridlock, Freezelock
As the global warming industry continues to champion hotter summers and milder winters, there is convincing evidence that natural and inevitable climate change is about to lead to a period of colder weather and a series of very cold winters. There have been recent warnings of the possibility that the winter of 2005/6 may be severe (1). However due to changes in solar activity that go beyond the 11-year visible sunspot variation to the longer Gleissberg cycle, a period involving cooler winters is likely to persist and culminate around 2030

http://www.abd.org.uk/pr/469.htm

Dr K Lassen,
"70-90 years oscillations in global mean temperature are correlated with corresponding oscillations in solar activity. Whereas the solar influence is obvious in the data from the last four centuries, signatures of human activity are not yet distinguishable in the observations."

http://www.abd.org.uk/freezelock.htm


As far as polar ice melt goes it was worse in 2003. Solar activity has dropped significantly since then. The Labrador SST anomaly that has been showing up during the winter and tapers off in the spring is doing so earlier the last couple of years. The last Solar Cycle was brutal. There is a need for a lot of re-icing, and to do that there has to be more hurricanes to bring moisture from the tropics to the north pole.

For a mini Ice Age to engage there has to be an accompanying increase in water vapor to compensate for the reduced albedo of the to date ice loss. I have been expecting global water vapor density to increase maybe this year it will pick up. South Florida broke the rainfall record for the data base during the 91-95 upswing. The Solar Cycle is about at that same level, but with the latitude of the solstice New Moon so high the majority of the increased rain will fall in the central US in the spring of 2006. Hopefully.

One point I try to make in the global climate discussion is that averaging sea surface temperatures over the active real time data base does not give a number that relates to a complete cycle. Average sea surface temperature goes up for 6 years and then goes down for 6 years, and real time might go back as far as mid 1996 but it doesn’t go back to 1993. So, there isn’t a whole cycle to compare. There is still a lot of old school equipment out there. The reliability of hand recorded data is not that complete.

The new GOES systems are really nice and can stream data at the 1000 mb level real time with 4 nodes every 20 kilometers. The problem for researchers is the “real time” data is not stored long so, it has to be captures as it happens or you have to jump a hoop to get it, or settle for some type of composite graph relevant to the provider.
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#107 Postby P.K. » Mon Jan 16, 2006 5:41 pm

gigabite wrote:Not Gridlock, Freezelock
As the global warming industry continues to champion hotter summers and milder winters, there is convincing evidence that natural and inevitable climate change is about to lead to a period of colder weather and a series of very cold winters. There have been recent warnings of the possibility that the winter of 2005/6 may be severe (1).


As usual the media exagerate everything. (Expect an "increase" in violent tornadoes in your media when the new EF scale starts being used there in Feb) The UKMO winter forecast said "The last eight winters have been relatively mild and perhaps have given the impression that these are 'normal'. The balance of probability is for a winter colder than those experienced since 1995/6." However on seeing a colder than average winter forecast the media then all say it will be as cold as 1963, which isn't going to happen.

Also I'm not sure what counts as severe here anymore as we get severe weather warnings whenever snow is expected to exceed about 1 cm it seems.
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#108 Postby gigabite » Mon Jan 16, 2006 7:49 pm

This reference
http://www.sws.uiuc.edu/atmos/statecli/ ... trends.htm
is interesting to me because if you look at table 1 it shows that when the temperature is low the precipitation is high.

I plot annual rainfall and compare it to the latitude of the new moon at perihelion. I expect annual rainfall to increase. A deductive conclusion would be that global temperature would subsequently drop. The mechanism I suspect irradiance is increasing insolation.

Total solar irradiance is defined as the amount of radiant energy emitted by the Sun over all wavelengths that fall each second on 11 ft2 (1 m2) outside Earth's atmosphere. Insolation is the amount of solar energy that strikes a given area over a specific time, and varies with latitude or the seasons.

As the latitude goes into the southern hemisphere while irradiance is high then the volume of global water vapor increases because the amount of water surface available to be brought to the threshold of evaporation is larger. As atmospheric water vapor increases so does atmospheric albedo cooling things off, and causing the water vapor to condense and fall as rain.
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Excellent article by Phil Brennan

#109 Postby kenl01 » Tue Jan 17, 2006 10:27 am

Take it or leave it, but this guy is great !


http://newsmax.com/archives/articles/20 ... 4822.shtml


Phil Brennan
Wednesday, Feb 23, 2005
Listen up. This is very important.
The global warming fanatics have fingered rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), a so-called greenhouse gas alleged to be in the process of shoving the planet into a global microwave and raising sea levels to the point where the world's coastal regions will be submerged.
They blame the rise of CO2, now about 370 parts per million and rapidly climbing, on us evil humans for using fossil fuels, driving SUVs and barbecuing frankfurters on our backyard grills. They ignore the proven fact that over millions of years, every time CO2 levels have risen above 200 parts per million, an ice age has occurred.

And in past ice ages, we weren't around to cause the levels to rise. Mother Nature did it all on her own, and she doesn't drive an SUV.

Some 19,000 of the world's scientists and experts on climatology have signed declarations saying that blaming rising CO2 levels on mankind is garbage – junk science at its worst – and they insist that all the available evidence proves their contention.

In fact, the global warmiacs couldn't be further from the truth. As I argued in my January 13 column, Let Eyes See and Ears Hear, and in my 1997 investigative report, "Global Warming or Globaloney," high levels of CO2 in the atmosphere are indeed a dire warning that something very unpleasant is about to befall our planet and those of us who reside here, but it has nothing to do with global warming.

Precisely the opposite: It is both the harbinger and the cause of a coming new ice age.

Now comes Robert W. Felix, who in his book "Not by Fire but by Ice" argues persuasively that it is not global warming but ocean warming that is pushing CO2 levels through the roof. Moreover, those skyrocketing levels of CO2 are bringing on a new ice age, which is sitting at our front door right now.

Here's how he puts it: "If today's rising carbon dioxide levels are caused by humans, then what caused the dramatic rise in CO2 levels at the dinosaur extinction?

"Research shows that there was 'a sudden and dramatic rise' in carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere at the dinosaur extinction of 65 million years ago. ... [T]oday's rise in CO2 levels can be attributed to our warming oceans. After all, the oceans are known as a carbon dioxide 'sink,' especially when the water is cold.

"But as the water warms up, it releases CO2 into the atmosphere. This happens in much the same way that a warm bottle of home-brewed root beer will release CO2. And if you give that CO2 no way to escape, the bottle will explode. We've got it backwards. We've got cause and effect in reverse. The CO2 is not causing global warming. Instead, our warming oceans are releasing CO2 into the atmosphere. It's not global warming, it's ocean warming, and it's leading us into an ice age."

According to Felix, the oceans are warming as the result of widespread underwater volcanic activity, which he thoroughly documents. He adds that "We've forgotten that this isn't the first time our seas have warmed. Sea temperatures also shot upward 10º to 18ºF just prior to the last ice age. As the oceans warmed, evaporation increased. The excess moisture then fell to the ground as giant blizzards, giant storms and floods (Noah's Deluge type floods), and a new ice age began."

And he warns, "The same thing is happening today. Underwater volcanic activity in the Arctic Ocean far stronger than anyone ever imagined!

"German-American researchers have discovered more hydrothermal activity at the Gakkel Ridge in the Arctic Ocean than anyone ever imagined.

"The Gakkel Ridge is a gigantic volcanic mountain chain stretching beneath the Arctic Ocean. With its deep valleys 5,500 meters beneath the sea surface and its 5,000-meter-high summits, Gakkel Ridge is far mightier than the Alps.

"Two research icebreakers, the USCGC Healy from USA and the German PFS Polarstern, recently joined forces in the international expedition AMORE (Arctic Mid-Ocean Ridge Expedition). In attendance were scientists from the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and other international institutions.

"The scientists had expected that the Gakkel Ridge would exhibit 'anemic' magnetism. Instead, they found 'surprisingly strong magmatic activity in the West and the East of the ridge and one of the strongest hydrothermal activities ever seen at mid-ocean ridges.'

"The Gakkel Ridge extends about 1,800 kilometers beneath the Arctic Ocean from north of Greenland to Siberia, and is the northernmost portion of the mid-ocean ridge system.

"To their surprise, the researchers found high levels of volcanic activity. Indeed, magmatism [blazing hot magma flowing from eruptions] was 'dramatically' higher than expected.

"Hydrothermal hot springs on the seafloor were also far more abundant than predicted. 'We expected this to be a hydrothermally dead ridge, and almost every time our water measurement instrument came up, they showed evidence of hydrothermal activity, and once we even "saw" an active hot spring on the sea floor,' said Dr. Jonathan Snow, the leader of the research group from Munich's Max Planck Institute in a 2003 press release.

Researchers found that "Naturally occurring bubbles of liquid carbon dioxide were observed rising from the ocean floor," according to the Associated Press. "For the first time ever, scientists using a camera-equipped submarine have been able to witness an undersea volcano during an eruptive episode.

"Exploring the ocean floor in an area known as the Mariana Trench, last year researchers found bubbles of liquid carbon dioxide being released into the sea, enlarging up to a thousand times and turning to gas as they drifted upward."

El Niño Related to Ocean Warming

"Ice ages looked like El Niño," Felix wrote, citing an article in the July 12, 2002 issue of Nature. "During past ice ages," he continued, "the tropical Pacific Ocean behaved rather as it does today in an El Niño event. ... Shifts between warm and cool global average temperatures look like super El Niños.

"Our seas, heated by underwater volcanism, are leading us directly into the next ice age ... and we don't even know it.

"That's what El Niño is all about," Felix explained. "Warmer seas send excess moisture into the sky, leading to increased precipitation.

"Worldwide flood activity is the worst since before Christopher Columbus. In Poland, it's the worst in several thousand years. In the U.S., precipitation has increased by more than 20 percent just since 1970. This is no coincidence.

"When that precipitation begins falling in the winter, you have the makings of an ice age."

The book is an easy read, even though it is crammed full of technical detail that Felix manages to explain even to scientific dunderheads like me. He goes into great detail, for example, in explaining why a reversal of the earth's magnetic field helps cause ice ages, as it has in all past ice ages, and points out that all previous magnetic reversals were preceded by declining geomagnetic field intensity, which is falling.

"During the past 2,000 years geomagnetic field intensity has plummeted more than 50 percent. Five percent of that decrease occurred in the past 100 years" – a sign, he writes, "experts warn may be a precursor to a new reversal attempt."

Felix emphasizes that the record proves that we are on on the verge of the onset of a new ice age. "Ice ages begin and end abruptly every 11,500 years. First comes an enormous flood, a Noah's Deluge type of flood, which ends the previous ice age. Then comes a period of warmth similar to today's ... which lasts about 11,500 years. Then the next ice age begins – catastrophically.

"That 11,500-year cycle of warmth followed by an ice age has returned like clockwork for millions of years. To hope it won't happen again just because humans now inhabit this planet would be wishful thinking."

On his Web site, http://www.iceagenow.com, Felix tracks the number of incidents building up to the onset of an ice age, including charting current underwater volcanic eruptions heating the oceans, and rainfall (think California), temperature and earthquake records now being broken.

He emphasizes over and over again that the onset of an ice age is both sudden and violent, lasting about 20 years, and anyone paying attention to what is happening to our planet will understand that we are probably somewhere in that 20-year period now. When it ends, huge numbers of us will go extinct, just as did the dinosaurs, and just as rapidly and as violently.

Let me recap: Felix has demonstrated convincingly that rising levels of CO2 are the result of ocean warming, not because of human activities, and that high levels of CO2 cause vastly increased precipitation, which results in vastly increased snowfall in moderate temperature zones and in the polar regions, which in turn brings on ice ages.

In short, he has told us the reason why CO2 levels have gone through the roof, what caused those levels to increase and what the result will be.

Anyone who reads this blockbuster of a book and pays attention to his regularly updated Web site will understand just what we face, and will come away with a feeling of absolute contempt for those politically inspired global-warming advocates who are lulling many of our fellow human beings into dangerous complacency.

The threat is here; the threat is now.


* * * * * *
Phil Brennan is a veteran journalist who writes for NewsMax.com. He is editor & publisher of Wednesday on the Web (http://www.pvbr.com) and was Washington columnist for National Review magazine in the 1960s. He also served as a staff aide for the House Republican Policy Committee and helped handle the Washington public relations operation for the Alaska Statehood Committee which won statehood for Alaska. He is also a trustee of the Lincoln Heritage Institute and a member of the Association of Former Intelligence Officers.

He can be reached at phil@newsmax.com
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Re: Excellent article by Phil Brennan

#110 Postby x-y-no » Tue Jan 17, 2006 11:19 am

kenl01 wrote:Take it or leave it, but this guy is great !


http://newsmax.com/archives/articles/20 ... 4822.shtml


Great at what, spreading disinformation? Yeh, I'll give you that.

But the fact that you get your scientific understanding from Newsmax explains pretty much everything about your approach to this dialogue - pure ideology at the expense of truth.


Phil Brennan
Wednesday, Feb 23, 2005
Listen up. This is very important.
The global warming fanatics have fingered rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), a so-called greenhouse gas alleged to be in the process of shoving the planet into a global microwave and raising sea levels to the point where the world's coastal regions will be submerged.
They blame the rise of CO2, now about 370 parts per million and rapidly climbing, on us evil humans for using fossil fuels, driving SUVs and barbecuing frankfurters on our backyard grills. They ignore the proven fact that over millions of years, every time CO2 levels have risen above 200 parts per million, an ice age has occurred.


What has this guy been smoking? Ice ages correlate with low CO2 levels, not high levels. The fact is that ice ages largely correlate to variations in orbit, and the observed CO2 changes are a positive feedback.

And in past ice ages, we weren't around to cause the levels to rise. Mother Nature did it all on her own, and she doesn't drive an SUV.


Is he trying to claim that the current rise in atmospheric CO2 is not caused by man? That claim is trivially falsified by isotopic analysis.

Some 19,000 of the world's scientists and experts on climatology have signed declarations saying that blaming rising CO2 levels on mankind is garbage – junk science at its worst – and they insist that all the available evidence proves their contention.


Ahhh ... dragging out that old bogus poll again. How many "scientists" in that list know the first thing about climate science? As I said, isotopic analysis conclusively proves the anthopogenic nature of the observed increase in atmospheric CO2, so anyone making the above claim is completely ignorant of the science.

...

Here's how he puts it: "If today's rising carbon dioxide levels are caused by humans, then what caused the dramatic rise in CO2 levels at the dinosaur extinction?


This once again raises the nonsense-argument that because something has happened naturally in the past, it cannot possibly be caused by humans now.

I'll ask once again - since all you contrarians avoid the question as apparently too embarassingly devastating to your logic:

DOES THE FACT THAT FOREST FIRES OCCUR NATURALLY PROVE THAT MAN CANNOT CAUSE FOREST FIRES? If not, why would you think the same faulty logic applies to atmospheric CO2?

I'd appreciate an answer.

I'd also appreciate if you would cease with the posting of political screeds. This board is non-political by rule, but you persist in posting political attacks on climate science, peppered with accusations of fraud and references to "global warming fanatics" etc. I find the level of vitriol in your posts disgusting and offensive.
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#111 Postby kenl01 » Tue Jan 17, 2006 11:26 am

That's not the point. The site http//:iceagenow.com under the ocean warming section explains very well with scientific links that underwater volcanoes are by far a much greater contributor to CO2 release than forest fires.

He knows what he's talking about. Sounds to me you must be working for the IPCC or the UN. :roll:

NOTHING we do will stop an ice age cycle............. :wink:
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#112 Postby kenl01 » Tue Jan 17, 2006 11:40 am

Some more excerpts about CO2 and volcanoes:

Naturally occurring bubbles of liquid carbon dioxide rising from the ocean floor - June 8, 2004 – For the first time ever, scientists using a camera-equipped submarine have been able to witness an undersea volcano during an eruptive episode.

Exploring the ocean floor in an area known as the Mariana Trench, the researchers “found bubbles of liquid carbon dioxide being released into the sea, enlarging up to a thousand times and turning to gas as they drifted upward.” (I have been saying for years that rising CO2 levels are a result of naturally occurring processes in the seas. This helps confirm those statements.)
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ ... lc0608/BNS

* * *





Underwater volcanic activity in the Arctic Ocean far stronger than anyone ever imagined!

German-American researchers have discovered more hydrothermal activity at the Gakkel Ridge in the Arctic Ocean than anyone ever imagined.

"The Gakkel ridge is a gigantic volcanic mountain chain stretching beneath the Arctic Ocean. With its deep valleys 5,500 meters beneath the sea surface and its 5,000 meter- high summits, Gakkel ridge is far mightier than the Alps."

Two research icebreakers, the "USCGC Healy" from USA and the German "PFS Polarstern," recently joined forces in the international expedition AMORE (Arctic Mid-Ocean Ridge Expedition). In attendance were scientists from the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and other international institutions.

The scientists had expected that the Gakkel ridge would exhibit "anemic" magmatism. Instead, they found "surprisingly strong magmatic activity in the West and the East of the ridge and one of the strongest hydrothermal activities ever seen at mid-ocean ridges."

"The Gakkel ridge extends about 1800 kilometers beneath the Arctic Ocean from north of Greenland to Siberia, and is the northernmost portion of the mid-ocean ridge system."
To their surprise, the researchers found high levels of volcanic activity. Indeed, magmatism was "dramatically" higher than expected.

Hydrothermal hot springs on the seafloor were also far more abundant than predicted. "We expected this to be a hydrothermally dead ridge, and almost every time our water measurement instrument came up, they showed evidence of hydrothermal activity, and once we even 'saw' an active hot spring on the sea floor," said Dr. Jonathan Snow, the leader of the research group from the Max Planck Institute.

No wonder the ice is melting!

See http://www.mpg.de/english/illustrations ... ion/pressR eleases/2003/pressRelease20030718/index.html

(From the Max Planck Society, 18 July 2003, The Fiery Face of the Arctic Deep.) (Thanks to Jon C. Olsen for telling me about this.)



Surely, someone will find a way to blame this on "global warming."

Volcanic eruption under ice sheet - 23 Nov 05 - A rare
volcanic eruption is rapidly expanding the size of Montagu Island in the South Atlantic, scientists announced today.

Located in the South Sandwich Islands, Montagu Island has grown by 50 acres (0.2 square km) in the last month as lava pours into the sea. This event is special, say scientists, because Montagu Island is mostly covered by ice.





Popping rocks reveal multiple underwater volcanoes off northern Mexico
– 27 Oct 2005 - “Noisy popping rocks hauled up from the deep Pacific seafloor off northern Mexico appear to be from a very young undersea volcano, say U.S. and Mexican geologists.

Underwater volcanoes pose tsunami threat – July 28, 2005 –
Seventy five previously unknown underwater volcanoes between New Zealand
and Tonga pose a tsunami threat, warns Australian geologist Professor Richard
Arculus. See Tsunami Threat

.

Warmer oceans may be killing West Coast marine life
– 13 July 2005 - Scientists suspect that rising ocean temperatures and
dwindling plankton populations are behind a growing number of seabird
deaths, reports of fewer salmon and other anomalies along the West Coast.

Coastal ocean temperatures are 2 to 5 degrees above normal, apparently
caused by a lack of upwelling.— a process that brings cold, nutrient-rich
water to the surface and jump-starts the marine food chain.

This spring, a record number of dead seabirds washed up on beaches from
central California to British Columbia … five to 10 times the highest number
of bird deaths seen before.

"Something big is going on out there," said Julia Parrish, an associate
professor in the School of Aquatic Fisheries and Sciences at the University
of Washington . "I'm left with no obvious smoking gun, but birds are a good
signal because they feed high up on the food chain."

"In 50 years, this has never happened," said Bill Peterson, an oceanographer
with NOAA in Newport, OR. "If this continues, we will have a food chain
that is basically impoverished from the very lowest levels."

NOAA's June and July surveys of juvenile salmon off the coasts of Oregon, Washington and British Columbia indicate a 20 to 30 percent drop in populations, compared with surveys from 1998-2004, especially coho and chinook.

"Nobody saw this coming," said Bill Sydeman, director of marine ecology at Point Reyes Bird Observatory.

Higher water temperatures are typically seen during an El Niño. But this is not an El Niño year.

See the full article by Carina Stanton with the Seattle Times http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/l ... an13m.html



Underwater volcano erupting 700 miles SE of Tokyo - July 3, 2005 -
The coast guard sent helicopters to monitor a huge column of steam more than
half-a-mile wide rising above the Pacific Ocean southeast of Tokyo, and warned
ships to stay away. The water in the area was brick-red.

"It's highly likely that it's caused by an eruption of an underwater volcano,"
coast guard spokesman Shigeyuki Sato said.

"We suspect the undersea volcanic moves are becoming active," said another coast guard official.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-p ... 646185.stm

.

Sea levels change faster than thought - 20 April 2005 - New evidence confirms that sea levels have risen and fallen much more quickly and frequently than previously believed. A new method of dating dead corals reveals a long record of repeated rises and drops in sea level of 6 to 30 meters over just thousands of years.

That's too fast to be explained by regular shifts in the Earth's orbit that are usually considered responsible for the ice ages, as well as the loss or gain of water from the oceans. (As you know if you've read my book, I think it's caused by underwater volcanism unleashed by the ice-age cycle, leading to assive evaporation.)

Dr William Thompson of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and Associate Professor Steven Goldstein of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University published their findings in the current issue of Science.
.

Underwater volcano grows 1,000 feet in four years
– May 25, 2005 - On an expedition to observe the Vailulu'u Volcano, an underwater volcano discovered in 1999 near American Samoa, scientists saw another volcano growing out of the first, like the island in the middle of Crater Lake .

Scientists dubbed the new volcano, about 20 miles (32 km) east of the island of Ta'u , Nafanua after the Samoan goddess of war. Growing at a rate of about 8 inches (20 cm) a day, Nafanua measured nearly 1,000 feet (300 meters) high. It could go much higher, said geologist Hubert Staudigel from the University of California at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography

The scientists were so amazed to find eels living in the newly formed lava that they
nicknamed the population "Eel City."

(Knowing that the temperature of the basalt should be around 2150 degrees Fahrenheit, I wonder why don’t we see any comments about how much heat underwater volcanoes must be pouring into the seas?)
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/7984261/?GT1=6542
.

Underwater Volcanoes Erupting Simultaneously All Over the World - March 14, 2005 -

Hundreds of underwater volcanoes are erupting all over the world, especially around the Ring of Fire, reportsthe India Daily.

Underwater volcanoes are erupting in Australia, Greece, New Zealand and many other countries including the American Northwest, which is experiencing an unprecedented level of underwater volcanism. Andaman Nicobar Island is experiencing underwater volcanism in both the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal .

Tectonic movements have gone up by several folds in the last nine months, say geologists, so much so that they don’t have enough monitoring mechanisms to keep track.
http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/1904.asp

(I don’t know how valid these sources are, but if they are correct, then I am very concerned that this could be the trigger that sends us into the ice age.

As you know if you’ve read my book, I think underwater volcanoes (not humans) are heating our seas. I also think these warmer seas will lead us into an ice age. I’m therefore very anxious to learn how much magma may be pouring into the sea right now.

If there’s a tremendous amount of magma pouring into the ocean, the magma could be as much as 2,150 degrees Fahrenheit - 10 times the boiling point – which could lead to much warmer seas and thence to an ice age.)

Such warming of the Northwest seas has happened before. There’s an old Makah Indian story that I tell in my book (page 181), and I’d like to repeat it here.

“Tales of warming seas also come from the Makah Indians, who live at Neah Bay on the northwest corner of Washington's Olympic Peninsula. They tell of a time when "the sea rose without any waves until it submerged Cape Flattery." "The water on its rise became very warm, and as it came up to the houses, those who had canoes put their effects in them, and floated off with the current."

I sincerely hope that this is not the beginning, but I fear that it could be.
* * *

More than 4,300 undersea earthquakes in five days!

- March 7, 2005 – "It might be a volcanic eruption or a magma event on the ridge," said Garry Rogers, a seismologist with the Geological Survey of Canada in Vancouver , B.C. "These earthquake swarms are associated with sea floor spreading [underwater volcanic activity]," said Robert P. Dziak, an oceanographer at the Hatfield Marine Science Center in Newport, Oregon.

The undersea quakes, about a mile-and-a-half below the ocean surface, weren’t large enough to trigger a tsunami, so the experts advise us not to worry.

I hope they’re correct, but if there’s a tremendous amount of magma pouring into the ocean I think we have a problem. The magma could be as much as 2,150 degrees Fahrenheit - 10 times the boiling point – which could lead to much warmer seas and thence to an ice age.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/ ... y=6420&slu g=CAN%20Undersea%20Quakes

* * *


Underwater volcano found off Antarctic coast. May 21, 2004. The National Science Foundation announced yesterday that a previously unknown underwater volcano has been discovered in an area known as the Antarctic Sound at the northernmost tip of Antarctica.

Dredges on the research vessel Lawrence M. Gould “recovered abundant fresh basalt.” Although large areas of the volcano were colonized by submarine life, none was found around the volcano itself, indicating that lava had flowed fairly recently. Temperature probes showed signs of geothermal heating of seawater. http://www.nsf.gov/home/news.html#story1
* * *

NASA confirms changing Atlantic currents – 15 April 2004 - "Whether the trend is part of a natural cycle or the result of other factors related to global warming is unknown." http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/2004/0415gyre.html

* * *



Rapid heating in the deepest waters of the Pacific Ocean. Oceanographers are “baffled.”
They don’t understand how the deeper waters could be heating so quickly, although it may be possible
that underwater volcanic activity may be the culprit. (This is the first time I’ve heard any scientist admit that underwater volcanism may be heating the seas.)

A recent article entitled “Changing Climate” talks about newly discovered rapid heating in the Pacific Ocean. "We find that the deepest waters of the North Pacific Ocean have warmed significantly across the entire width of the ocean basin," Japanese and Canadian scientists report in the current issue of the journal Nature.”

Oceanographers are “baffled.” They don’t understand how the deeper waters could be heating so quickly.

“Climate scientist Andrew Weaver, of the University of Victoria in British Columbia, said the undersea-volcanism possibility "was one of the first things I thought about" when he read the Nature paper. Even so, Weaver doubts that explanation because the warming is so uniform over a large area, whereas undersea volcanism tends to be along midocean ridges.” (March 1, 2004, by Keay Davidson, Chronicle science writer)

Anyone who has read my book knows that I think the heating is caused by underwater volcanism, which will lead directly to an ice age. This is the first time that I’ve seen anyone willing to admit that underwater volcanism may be heating the seas.

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f ... 5B7VE1.DTL
* * *



Undersea eruptions killing billions of fish. Feb 4, 2004. Undersea eruptions of noxious hydrogen sulphide are devastating one of the world’s richest fisheries. Satellite images show that toxic eruptions off the coast of Namibia are more frequent and widespread than anyone realized. The area supports a fishery that was worth around $400 million in 1998, providing Namibia with its second largest source of revenue after mining. (My guess is that this is caused by underwater volcanic activity.) http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99994639

.See also:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Natura ... g_id=11988

Volcanism killed the Dinosaurs. "It wasn't the impact of an asteroid that killed the dinosaurs 65 million years ago, reports Science Daily of new research from Cardiff University in Wales. "It was a mantle plume, a huge volcanic eruption from deep within Earth's mantle...." "The massive outpouring of lava, ashes, and gas can have significant effects on climate." (I agree, I agree, I agree. I think the mantle plume heated the seas. This caused increased evaporation. Then the excess moisture rose into the skies, skies which had already cooled because of the ash. This lead to massive increases in snowfall, and to an ice age. And that's what I've been saying all along.)





http://channels.netscape.com/ns/news/pa ... ddinosaurs






--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Here's an important study showing that El Niño activity correlates with ice ages. (Meyerson, Mayewski, et al., Annals of Glaciology 35: 430-436.)
The authors found that a shift toward cooler conditions during the Little Ice Age was concurrent with an increase in the frequency of El Niño events. This is contrary to what is generally predicted by climate models, where cooling leads to less El Niño activity and warming leads to more.

The findings were harmonious with the historical El Niño chronology of both South America and the Nile region, which depict "increased El Niño activity during the period of the Little Ice Age and decreased El Niño activity during the Medieval Warm Period.
http://www.co2science.org/journal/2003/v6n34c1.htm

This goes along with what I have been saying for years - that today's increase in El Niño activity is the precursor to an ice age.

* * * * *

We’ve forgotten that this isn’t the first time our seas have warmed. Sea temperatures also shot upward 10º to 18ºF just prior to the last ice age.

As the oceans warmed, evaporation increased. The excess moisture then fell to the ground as giant blizzards, giant storms and floods (Noah's Deluge type floods), and a new ice age began.

The same thing is happening today.

It’s not global warming, it’s ocean warming, and humans have nothing to do with it. Our seas are being heated, I believe, by underwater volcanism. Here’s why:

We are living in a period of vastly increased volcanism, said Dixy Lee Ray in her 1993 book Environmental Overkill, the greatest in 500 years.
Eighty percent of all volcanism (say experts at NOAA) occurs underwater.
Therefore, underwater volcanism should also be the greatest in 500 years.
Our seas, heated by underwater volcanism, are leading us directly into the next ice age . . . and we don’t even know it.
That's what El Niño is all about. Warmer seas send excess moisture into the sky, leading to increased precipitation.
Worldwide flood activity is the worst since before Christopher Columbus. In Poland, it's the worst in several thousand years. In the U.S., precipitation has increased 20 percent just since 1970. This is no coincidence.
When that precipitation begins falling in the winter, you have the makings of an ice age.




You may have seen the articles about the deaths of many giant squids, and how their demise may be attributable to "global warming." I attribute their deaths to ocean warming, ocean warming caused by underwater volcanoes. After all, the warming begins at 10,000 feet down, far too deep for humans to be at fault. (Oct 2002)


See "Ice ages looked like El Niño" in the July 12, 2002 issue of Nature. "During past ice ages," the article says, "the tropical Pacific Ocean behaved rather as it does to day in an El Niño event." "Shifts between warm and cool global average temperatures look like super El Niños."
http://www.nature.com/nsu/020708/020708-19.html


See also, "Global climate: no change" in the July 12 issued of Nature. Global climate 50,000 years ago was rather like that of today, the article says. Studies of fossilized trees in southern Chile reveal that the climate between the last two ice ages varied much as it does now. "Climate fluctuations closely resemble those we are experiencing now, including the 2--5--year spell of El Niño oscillations." http://www.nature.com/nsu/010329/010329-13.html


See also "Global climate 50,000 years ago was rather like that of today," says an article in the July 12 issue of Nature.. Studies of fossilized trees in southern Chile reveal that climate fluctuations between the last two ice ages closely resemble those we are experiencing now, including the 2--5--year spell of El Niño oscillations. http://www.nature.com/nsu/010329/010329-13.html

________________________

"Fiery birth of a new Pacific island!"

Thus read the May 24, 2000 announcement from the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Organization (CSIRO).

CSIRO had sent a team of researchers to the Soloman Islands east of Australia to study a "dormant" underwater volcano.

Instead, their target was very much alive.

The scientists watched in amazement as lava and ash blasted through the surface of the Pacific Ocean and then continued rising more than 200 feet into the sky. Plumes of steam and smoke rose thousands of feet above the ocean's surface.

They were witnessing the birth of the Island Kavachi.

They were also witnessing "global warming" at work.

Volcanic islands such as Kavachi are formed as underwater volcanoes pump vast amounts of red-hot basalt into the seas. The basalt can reach temperatures of up to 2,150 degrees Fahrenheit; ten times the boiling point.

Kavachi confirms observations that submarine volcano chains contibute significantly to heat entering the oceans, said Gary Massoth of the Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences in Darwin.

Rising more than 3,000 feet above the ocean floor, Kavachi is just one of thousands of volcanic islands that contribute to ocean warming. Kavachi has formed at least 8 times in the past 60 years, only to recede beneath the water. At times, Kavachi has reached more than 500 feet in length.

Most underwater volcanoes—also called "seamounts"—erupt so far beneath the sea that their steam and gasses never reach the surface. Still, they contribute an incredible amount of heat to the world's oceans.

Submarine volcanoes can be even larger than above-water volcanoes. Hawaii's undersea Loihi volcano, for instance, towers almost 10,000 feet above the ocean floor, which is taller than Mount St. Helens.

Even then, Loihi's top remains about a half mile below the surface of the ocean. Researchers estimate that Loihi will reach the surface of the ocean and officially become an island in about 100,000 years.

As with other underwater volcanoes, Loihi contributes to ocean warming. During a 1996 eruption of Loihi, researchers recorded the temperature of the surrounding water at almost 400°F.

Worldwide, as many as 30,000 islands have been formed by underwater volcanoes, say researchers. The major islands in Hawaii, for example, were built around the active volcanoes at their centers. Hawaii's Big Island was formed by five large volcanoes, including Mauna Loa, the largest active volcano on Earth.

Other islands birthed by undersea volcanic eruptions include the islands of Japan, the West Indies islands in the Caribbean, the Azores in the Atlantic, and hundreds of islands in the Pacific.

Today, most of the world's underwater volcanoes remain unmonitored, leaving us with no inkling of how much they contribute to "global warming."

I think we owe it to ourselves to find out.

See more photos of Kavachi erupting:
http://www.syd.dem.csiro.au/research/hy ... vachi.html




Carbon dioxide

On a related subject, let me ask you. If today's rising carbon dioxide are caused by humans, then what caused the dramatic rise in CO2 levels at the dinosaur extinction?

Research shows that there was "a sudden and dramatic rise" in carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere at the dinosaur extinction of 65 million years ago. A recent report attributes the rise in CO2 levels to an asteroid impact. See http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/2038599.stm

I disagree. I think today's rise in CO2 levels can be attributed to our warming oceans. After all, the oceans are known as a carbon dioxide "sink," especially when the water is cold.

But as the water warms up, it releases CO2 into the atmosphere. This happens in much the same way that a warm bottle of home-brewed root beer will release CO2. And if you give that CO2 no way to escape, the bottle will explode.

We've got it backwards. We've got cause and effect in reverse.

The CO2 is not causing global warming. Instead, our warming oceans are releasing CO2 into the atmosphere.

It's not global warming, it's ocean warming, and it's leading us into an ice age.



"Volcanic 'flood' linked to extinction"

"A huge outpouring of molten rock 250 million years ago may have been the decisive factor in the deaths of nearly all life forms on the Earth at that time." So says a recent article in the journal Science.

The flood basalts at the Siberian Traps covered around 3.9 million square kilometers, says Marc Reichow, of the University of Leicester, UK., an area much larger than previously believed.

Reichow's studies suggest that the "volcanic flood" was about one mile deep, and covered an area half the size of Australia.
See http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/2030075.stm
(Thanks to Adam Lemanski for this info.)

Question. If the vast majority of volcanic activity takes place under water, wouldn't it seem as if an underwater area several times the size of Australia should have been concurrently covered with a mile-deep layer of lava?

And every single one of those millions of kilometers of lava would have been incredibly hot; up to 2,100 degrees Fahrenheit hot.

It's not global warming, it's ocean warming, and it's leading us into an ice age.

__________________

I think the same thing happened at the dinosaur extinction of 65 million years ago. For anyone familiar with that extinction, you know that there was a huge volcanic outpouring at the time known as the Deccan Traps. It covered one million square miles of India and the surrounding areas under successive layers of basalt up to one-and-a-half-miles deep.

According to paleontologist Dewey McLean, a good portion of the Deccan Traps was submarine. This would explain why ocean temperatures at the dinosaur extinction rose by some 14° to 22°F. See http://filebox.vt.edu/artsci/geology/mc ... index.html

* * *

Intense volcanic activity linked to dinosaur-era extinctions - November 1, 2003: Peter Ward, a University of Washington paleontologist, thinks intense volcanic activity may have caused widespread extinctions 250 million years ago at the end-Permian, and about 200 million years ago at the end-Triassic.
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/031101/80/ecr08.html
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#113 Postby x-y-no » Tue Jan 17, 2006 11:57 am

kenl01 wrote:That's not the point. The site http//:iceagenow.com under the ocean warming section explains very well with scientific links that underwater volcanoes are by far a much greater contributor to CO2 release than forest fires.


1) If the seas were warming due to volcanic activity, then we would see warming in the abyssal oceans first. The opposite is true - warming is occurring at the surface and gradually propagating down.

And my question about forest fires had nothing to do with CO2 from forest fires - it had to do with the false logic you guys repetedly offer that past variation is some sort of evidence against human influence.

Please, please, please explain the logical step which allows you to claim that past natural variability in atmospheric CO2 is any kind of evidence at all that the current change in CO2 is not caused by human activity.

Also, please explain where you think all the fossil carbon we are pumping into the atmosphere is going.

Also, please explain why the isotopic analysis of CO2 in the atmosphere would so closely match the ratios expected from human input if it's all natural?

Also please explain why the acidity of the ocean surface is going up if CO2 is being outgassed?

I could go on and on, but answer these questions first, please. Answer them with some real science to back up your answers, if you can.

He knows what he's talking about. Sounds to me you must be working for the IPCC or the UN. :roll:


You're the one who keeps posting political screeds - not me. But I won't accuse you of working for the fossil-fuel mining industry.

My basic scientific philosophy is based on fealty to truth. My basic political philosophy is based on responsibility. I'm sorry you find that so threatening.


NOTHING we do will stop an ice age cycle............. :wink:


Eventually, one would certainly expect another ice age. It's hard to predict what the level of our technology might be in the thousands or tens of thousands of years from now that it might happen, though.

In the meantime - we're living today.
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Moscow cuts power in record cold

#114 Postby kenl01 » Tue Jan 17, 2006 11:59 am

Moscow cuts power in record cold

MOSCOW, Jan. 17 (UPI) -- As record cold temperatures moved into Moscow from Siberia, electricity suppliers have ordered power cuts at factories in order to prevent a blackout.


A number of factories were expected to be without power for several hours Tuesday, in order to make up for the expected 10 percent to 15 percent rise in electricity consumption resulting from the cold snap, The Moscow Times reported.

However, residential houses, hospitals, schools, nuclear sites, the police and the subway would continue to be supplied with electricity, officials said.

The temperature in Moscow Tuesday morning was minus 26 Celsius -- nearly minus 15 Fahrenheit.

The country's top health official, Gennady Onishchenko, said Monday that Moscow schools would likely close if temperatures were at minus 25 Celsius or colder for any length of time.

It was not clear Monday whether the city government had ordered any measures to help the homeless survive the cold. Even before temperatures plummeted Monday, five people froze to death in Moscow over the weekend.

Staff at the Moscow Zoo were also preparing for the extreme cold Monday. All of the zoo's approximately 6,000 animals would stay indoors in heated shelters, a spokeswoman said.

Copyright 2006 by United Press International. All Rights Reserved.


http://www.sciencedaily.com/upi/?feed=T ... owcold.xml



Siberians shiver in record cold
TOMSK, Russia, Jan. 16 (UPI) -- Record low temperatures were felt in western Siberia over the weekend, with temperatures in the Tomsk region reported at minus 58 degrees Fahrenheit and lower.

"This morning people felt Arctic weather," a local meteorologist told the Interfax news agency Friday.

A state of emergency was declared in the Tomsk region, where at least one man died because of the cold and hospitals treated dozens of people daily for cold-related health problems, while public transportation and electricity supplies were disrupted, The Moscow Times reported Monday.

In the Novosibirsk region, temperatures fell to minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit -- the lowest in 100 years. In the city of Krasnoyarsk, celebrations for the Russian holiday known as Old New Year's Eve were canceled Friday after temperatures were also predicted to fall to minus 40.

In the Komi-Permyatsky autonomous district, where temperatures were as low as minus 49 Fahrenheit, 85 people -- mostly preschoolers -- were evacuated from a settlement after a heating system serving 600 residents failed, Interfax reported Saturday.

There was some good news, however: Scientists in the Tyumen region said the thousands of school closures across Siberia would reduce the spread of an expected flu epidemic among schoolchildren.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/upi/?feed=T ... ldsnap.xml
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Re: Excellent article by Phil Brennan

#115 Postby P.K. » Tue Jan 17, 2006 12:07 pm

kenl01 wrote:They blame the rise of CO2, now about 370 parts per million and rapidly climbing, on us evil humans for using fossil fuels, driving SUVs and barbecuing frankfurters on our backyard grills. They ignore the proven fact that over millions of years, every time CO2 levels have risen above 200 parts per million, an ice age has occurred.

And in past ice ages, we weren't around to cause the levels to rise. Mother Nature did it all on her own, and she doesn't drive an SUV.


Burning petrol is going to release CO2 so where do you think it is going then??

The people working for the IPCC do know what they are doing.
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Re: Excellent article by Phil Brennan

#116 Postby kenl01 » Tue Jan 17, 2006 12:11 pm

P.K. wrote:
kenl01 wrote:They blame the rise of CO2, now about 370 parts per million and rapidly climbing, on us evil humans for using fossil fuels, driving SUVs and barbecuing frankfurters on our backyard grills. They ignore the proven fact that over millions of years, every time CO2 levels have risen above 200 parts per million, an ice age has occurred.

And in past ice ages, we weren't around to cause the levels to rise. Mother Nature did it all on her own, and she doesn't drive an SUV.


Burning petrol is going to release CO2 so where do you think it is going then??

The people working for the IPCC do know what they are doing.



Dude that doesn't mean ANYTHING. Read those articles I pasted earlier. We are no match for nature. Nor will we stop the next ice age.
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#117 Postby bob rulz » Mon Jan 30, 2006 4:26 pm

I come here to see news from heavy snow events around the world and instead I find an endless debate on global warming. :roll:
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