Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Johnny]

I've been reading alot of thoughts from forecasters on the upcoming cold the end of January and into February. Most all of the forecasters/mets are buying the cold pattern that could be taking place BUT their discussions are mainly centered around the midwest and northeastern United States.

I figured this would be a good time to start discussing maps, models etc. for the possibility of the coldest air of the winter season for us southerners, mainly the deep south.

It's obvious that cold air is being pooled up in Alaska (currently -33 in Fairbanks). Will this cold air be tapped betwwen now and then or will it continue to build?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I've been reading alot of thoughts from forecasters on the upcoming cold the end of January and into February. Most all of the forecasters/mets are buying the cold pattern that could be taking place BUT their discussions are mainly centered around the midwest and northeastern United States.

I figured this would be a good time to start discussing maps, models etc. for the possibility of the coldest air of the winter season for us southerners, mainly the deep south.

It's obvious that cold air is being pooled up in Alaska (currently -33 in Fairbanks). Will this cold air be tapped betwwen now and then or will it continue to build?

Looks like it will continue to build and then be sent southward in a week or two.

[beachbum_al]

Not forecasting but this is the way I see it. Mardi Gras is the week of Feb 25~well that is when the ball is and my dress is sleeveless so I figure it will be the coldest day of the year and the night will be freezing.

Okay now on the serious side this has been a strange winter here in Alabama. Usually we have several days that we are below freezing and usually they are before now. Well at least I think they are. We have had some days here that it has been warm enough to jump into a swimming pool. You know when your children get their bathing suits on and want to play in the sprinkler that it is hot.

I figure it will cold but it will be the end of January or the first part of Feb.

[WaitingForSiren]

I still dont think anything terrible is brewing. Just your typical arctic front bringing 15 or so degrees below normal weather for a week max...no big deal.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah may be nothing terrible...but then again I am not too sure. Some of the coldest air in the world will work into Alaska over the next week or two and when Alaska sees temps. as low as -50F, then we need to watch out here in the US. Would not be surprised if we saw a decent arctic outbreak with temps. 30-50 below normal for the northern plains and NE for a day, and 15-35 below normal in the southern plains and east. Now I am not saying that this WILL happen, but there seems to be the chance of an early December (or worse) like outbreak to set up.

[Johnny]

I believe JB said that this front that just came through was gonna be alot colder than what models were saying? That doesn't look to be the case with sunny skies today with highs in the mid 50's. I think JB was thinking we would stay cloudy today which would of kept us in the 40's easy. This blast of cold air will not last long at all. Southerly flow resumes tomorrow with temperatures climbing back up into the upper 60's close to 70.

[gboudx]

If we don't get some nice sub-freezing temps with frost, I will be getting my lawn mower ready in about 3 weeks. Add the drought on top of it and I guess the grass won't be staying green long, and/or won't be growing very fast. If we don't get good rain, I forsee even stricter water restrictions in the coming months.

[Air Force Met]

One thing the Canadian is showing that interests me is that at 240 hours it has a huge high sitting over siberia...about 1060mb. It's about 1054mb and closer to alaska at 144 but is being held at bay by the Aluetian low.

B/W the 216 and 240 hour points...the low becmoes weaker and the cross-polar flow is strengthened some...which could be the first signs of the sir being tapped across the poles in 2 weeks as the polar vortex moves closer to the pole....if it verifies.

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... hdd_50.gif

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... hdj_50.gif

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... hdk_50.gif

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... hdf_50.gif

[ETXHAMXYL]

Hey AirForce met...I gather what you are saying is that there might be a possible change in the pattern in two weeks out? Is that correct?
Also I see you are in Angleton..that is where my grandfather lives. He lives near the fairgrounds. I love visiting him. His whole garage is filled with miniture trains and carnival rides that he build himself over the past 60 years... I believe there was an article in the paper Dec. of 04 on his train set up.

Looking forward to reading more of your posts since you seem to really have lots of knowledge and experience with this weather predicting. I get more excited when you see things than when everyone is oh ahing over Jb and his wild weather rides.

[Air Force Met]

Hey AirForce met...I gather what you are saying is that there might be a possible change in the pattern in two weeks out? Is that correct?
Also I see you are in Angleton..that is where my grandfather lives. He lives near the fairgrounds. I love visiting him. His whole garage is filled with miniture trains and carnival rides that he build himself over the past 60 years... I believe there was an article in the paper Dec. of 04 on his train set up.

Looking forward to reading more of your posts since you seem to really have lots of knowledge and experience with this weather predicting. I get more excited when you see things than when everyone is oh ahing over Jb and his wild weather rides.

I'm thinking about 2 weeks out. Last week I was thinking 3 weeks out so...still on track...we'll see.

I am getting into toy trains because of my sons. My youngest is a train nut (he's 31/2) and we got him an O scale and we are in the process of building our first real layout (beside the 2x5 that came with the kit).

There is a real nice model train store in Angleton...Riverview...I'm sure your grandfather knows it well. Great place to hang out.

[Johnny]

AFM. I appreciated the info. Now how are the precipitation chances looking over the next two to three weeks for us here in Texas? I'm not talking about frozen precipitation but precipitation in general? Boy do we need it.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

AFM. I appreciated the info. Now how are the precipitation chances looking over the next two to three weeks for us here in Texas? I'm not talking about frozen precipitation but precipitation in general? Boy do we need it.

We need the rain big time. We got a quick downpour last night that lasted about 10 minutes with the front, but we need one of those pattern were we stay damp and cool for about 2 weeks to get the soil moist for planting season for the farmers. If we don't get it with in the next 6 weeks, we're screwed till May because March and April are two of the drier months of the year.

I heard on the Paul Harvey noon update on the radio that Sieberia was having record cold. Hmmm, I wonder how cold it could get if some of that air ultimately makes over to the 48?

[Air Force Met]

AFM. I appreciated the info. Now how are the precipitation chances looking over the next two to three weeks for us here in Texas? I'm not talking about frozen precipitation but precipitation in general? Boy do we need it.

Well...I got an inch last night...so I'm pleased with that.

I think we will see a lot more precip chances over the next 2 weeks than we have over the last month or so. Looks like 3 or 4 seperate events during the period that have potential to bring some rain.

[Tyler]

AFM,

I really appreciate your information and analysis that you give to this board. I REALLY hope we see that pattern change in two weeks, so far this winter has been way too warm for my tastes, and I'm sure the rest of the nation agrees, as its really been nothing but a blowtorch for everybody...

The GFS around 180 hours develops some areas of precip around Dallas and Oklahoma City. Hopefully this situation comes to reality, as they DESPERATELY need the rainfall.

As far as last night goes, I got an inch of rain AND I got to see hail for the first time in a LONG time. It was pretty neat. After the main line of rain moved through, areas of precip developed behind it. And one of those areas gave me lots of dime sized hail. It was everywhere, and really loud. It was really cool!

[Portastorm]

Speaking for the Austin area (once again): "I got a rock."

(it spit out some rain drops in a few, selected areas of the metro area).

[txwatcher91]

One thing the Canadian is showing that interests me is that at 240 hours it has a huge high sitting over siberia...about 1060mb. It's about 1054mb and closer to alaska at 144 but is being held at bay by the Aluetian low.

B/W the 216 and 240 hour points...the low becmoes weaker and the cross-polar flow is strengthened some...which could be the first signs of the sir being tapped across the poles in 2 weeks as the polar vortex moves closer to the pole....if it verifies.

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... hdd_50.gif

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... hdj_50.gif

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... hdk_50.gif

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... hdf_50.gif

AFM, thanks for the great analysis. I have one question though, if it verified, could the possible arctic outbreak rival the outbreak of 1989?

[jasons2k]

AFM,

I really appreciate your information and analysis that you give to this board. I REALLY hope we see that pattern change in two weeks, so far this winter has been way too warm for my tastes, and I'm sure the rest of the nation agrees, as its really been nothing but a blowtorch for everybody...

The GFS around 180 hours develops some areas of precip around Dallas and Oklahoma City. Hopefully this situation comes to reality, as they DESPERATELY need the rainfall.

As far as last night goes, I got an inch of rain AND I got to see hail for the first time in a LONG time. It was pretty neat. After the main line of rain moved through, areas of precip developed behind it. And one of those areas gave me lots of dime sized hail. It was everywhere, and really loud. It was really cool!

Check out the thread on Ohio. They are very thankful (as I'll bet most of the nation is) the winter has been warm so far due to the outrageous high gas/heating oil prices.

I'm sure the citrus growers and other plant enthusiasts (like myself) are pretty happy as well.

Aside from the pocketbook, I never thought shivering, my ears going numb, and my nose turning raw from the nasty cold was pleasant thing, but to each his own I guess.

But I definitely enjoyed last nights storms. I had gusts to about 40 mph and some hail myself, but nothing severe. Now if it would warm back up so I could rip off this very uncomfortable sweater I'd be even happier I can't wait to break out the shorts & flip-flops again

[LarryWx]

I heard on the Paul Harvey noon update on the radio that Sieberia was having record cold. Hmmm, I wonder how cold it could get if some of that air ultimately makes over to the 48?

It is my belief, based on my years of following wx in combo with my own thoughts, that the U.S. would generally be colder more often than not during a particular period if there were no extreme cold in Asia. There is only so much extremely cold air available as I see it. If it favors Asia, that would seem to me to leave less cold available for the U.S. near that time, especially since it is very hard for Siberian cold to make it to the U.S. largely intact. I feel it is no coincidence that the U.S. is having extreme warmth while Asia is having the opposite. Something similar occurred during the winter of 2001-02. JB kept harping on record Siberian cold coming to the U.S., but it never really got cold through 2/2002. I think that for the prospects for widespread, intense, long-lasting U.S. cold to increase soon, it would be best for Asia to start getting warmer very soon, which may well be finally happenning.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I heard on the Paul Harvey noon update on the radio that Sieberia was having record cold. Hmmm, I wonder how cold it could get if some of that air ultimately makes over to the 48?

It is my belief, based on my years of following wx in combo with my own thoughts, that the U.S. would generally be colder more often than not during a particular period if there were no extreme cold in Asia. There is only so much extremely cold air available as I see it. If it favors Asia, that would seem to me to leave less cold available for the U.S. near that time, especially since it is very hard for Siberian cold to make it to the U.S. largely intact. I feel it is no coincidence that the U.S. is having extreme warmth while Asia is having the opposite. Something similar occurred during the winter of 2001-02. JB kept harping on record Siberian cold coming to the U.S., but it never really got cold through 2/2002. I think that for the prospects for widespread, intense, long-lasting U.S. cold to increase soon, it would be best for Asia to start getting warmer very soon, which may well be finally happenning.

well actually the cold air is currently spilling into (and will continue spilling into) Alaska and Canada. Once it can get established up there, then it can head towards us. Asia should begin to get a little milder as we get colder.

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow...what a windy day it has turned out to be! Here are a few of the top gusts recorded at SE Texas airports today:

Hooks (Tomball): 38mph
IAH: 41mph
Hobby: 39mph
Galveston: 46mph
Beaumont: 40mph
Conroe: 43mph
Lufkin: 36mph

***Wind Advisory will remain in effect for the Houston area until 6pm. Make sure all loose items are secure, including plastic lawn furniture, small potted plants and trash cans. Also, use caution when driving high profile vehicles.***