Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

#21 Postby **gboudx** » Tue Jan 17, 2006 4:28 pm

Yeah, you guys down south are getting the winds we had last night. It's still windy up here, but not as windy as last night.

cctxhurricanewatcher · #22 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Tue Jan 17, 2006 4:34 pm

gboudx wrote:Yeah, you guys down south are getting the winds we had last night. It's still windy up here, but not as windy as last night.

Yep. We had 50 MPH gusts with the front last night. Right now winds are sustained in the 25 MPH range.

Tyler · #23 Postby **Tyler** » Tue Jan 17, 2006 4:36 pm

This is the most wind we've had in sometime!

Tyler · #24 Postby **Tyler** » Tue Jan 17, 2006 5:18 pm

Centerpoint Energy is saying there are 20,000 people without power around the area due to the high winds...

Extremeweatherguy · #25 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jan 17, 2006 6:15 pm

yeah I have had in and out power all day.

southerngale · #26 Postby **southerngale** » Tue Jan 17, 2006 7:00 pm

Thanks AFM. I'll look forward to hearing you say this next week: "Last week I was thinking 2 weeks out so...still on track...we'll see."

Many areas around here got between 1 and 2 inches of rain. It started in the afternoon and lasted until 5 or 6am. A lot of it was light but it got pretty heavy and stormy when the main line went through, and then another line a few hours later. Winds were pretty gusty as well but I didn't see any hail. I did lose cable (internet) twice, the first time for nearly an hour and the 2nd time for a few hours. There were some power failures, but mine has stayed on. *knock on wood*

But apparently we're still in a burn ban.

Extremeweatherguy · #27 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jan 17, 2006 7:35 pm

I am starting to get concerned about tonight. The forecast is for a freeze (32F), but I have a feeling that we may wake up to temps. in the 20s! :eek:

why? Well the dewpoint is currently about 14, and the winds are dying off fast! If the winds can go calm, then we could easily see the temp. and dewpoint meet up near 25 degrees or so tomorrow morning. Now, the chances of this happening are not high, but if it occurs then we may see a "surprise" freeze. Something to watch...

Also: Looks like another shot at severe weather Friday and then a much cooler period starting this weekend. By much cooler, I mean a prolonged period of near normal/slightly below normal temps. for next week with highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s next Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday (at least). Also, expect most of next week to be cloudy with a 20-30% chance of showers each day. The pattern is beginning to change folks! and in 2 weeks we could begin to get into an even colder period, which may include a decent arctic shot capable of a few well below normal days. Overall..it looks like Late January/ Early February will be cold. Can't wait!

WaitingForSiren · #28 Postby **WaitingForSiren** » Tue Jan 17, 2006 8:17 pm

I agree it will get much below normal in early february (just in time for my birthday, which is funny since last year it was in the low 50s here on my birthday with record highs), but I doubt there will be any severe weather. This cold front should clear out the gulf of any humid air, and the storm on Friday doesnt look particularly intense, so my guess is it will be a similar event to yesterday. Rain, heavy at times will develop from southeast texas into lousiana and spread northeastward, with maybe a few severe storms in extreme southern texas and lousiana with wind reports, marginal hail and a tornado or two. Thats all I expect at this point.

Tyler · #29 Postby **Tyler** » Tue Jan 17, 2006 9:32 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I am starting to get concerned about tonight. The forecast is for a freeze (32F), but I have a feeling that we may wake up to temps. in the 20s! why? Well the dewpoint is currently about 14, and the winds are dying off fast! If the winds can go calm, then we could easily see the temp. and dewpoint meet up near 25 degrees or so tomorrow morning. Now, the chances of this happening are not high, but if it occurs then we may see a "surprise" freeze. Something to watch...

Also: Looks like another shot at severe weather Friday and then a much cooler period starting this weekend. By much cooler, I mean a prolonged period of near normal/slightly below normal temps. for next week with highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s next Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday (at least). Also, expect most of next week to be cloudy with a 20-30% chance of showers each day. The pattern is beginning to change folks! and in 2 weeks we could begin to get into an even colder period, which may include a decent arctic shot capable of a few well below normal days. Overall..it looks like Late January/ Early February will be cold. Can't wait!

I don't think the winds tonight will go completely calm, which will help the temperatures not drop down to the dewpoint... Also, yes, looks like this weekend will be on the coolish side with a chance of rain! We've changed into a pattern more conducive for rain, but the really cold air just hasn't come yet. That could change though!

Extremeweatherguy · #30 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jan 17, 2006 9:47 pm

Tyler wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:I am starting to get concerned about tonight. The forecast is for a freeze (32F), but I have a feeling that we may wake up to temps. in the 20s! why? Well the dewpoint is currently about 14, and the winds are dying off fast! If the winds can go calm, then we could easily see the temp. and dewpoint meet up near 25 degrees or so tomorrow morning. Now, the chances of this happening are not high, but if it occurs then we may see a "surprise" freeze. Something to watch...

Also: Looks like another shot at severe weather Friday and then a much cooler period starting this weekend. By much cooler, I mean a prolonged period of near normal/slightly below normal temps. for next week with highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s next Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday (at least). Also, expect most of next week to be cloudy with a 20-30% chance of showers each day. The pattern is beginning to change folks! and in 2 weeks we could begin to get into an even colder period, which may include a decent arctic shot capable of a few well below normal days. Overall..it looks like Late January/ Early February will be cold. Can't wait!

I don't think the winds tonight will go completely calm, which will help the temperatures not drop down to the dewpoint... Also, yes, looks like this weekend will be on the coolish side with a chance of rain! We've changed into a pattern more conducive for rain, but the really cold air just hasn't come yet. That could change though!

uh oh... latest report from Hooks airport has "calm winds". The good news is that the dewpoint is now 26..the bad news is that it is 40 (as of 8pm...probably in the 30s now). With a dewpoint still below freezing and a temp. in the 30s I would expect to reach 25-32 tonight areawide. Here are my predictions: Hooks = 29-30 degrees....IAH = 31-33 degrees...Hobby = 35-40 degrees. Outlying areas and cold pockets may get 2-4 degrees colder than their closest airport.

Tyler · #31 Postby **Tyler** » Tue Jan 17, 2006 10:05 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Tyler wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:I am starting to get concerned about tonight. The forecast is for a freeze (32F), but I have a feeling that we may wake up to temps. in the 20s! why? Well the dewpoint is currently about 14, and the winds are dying off fast! If the winds can go calm, then we could easily see the temp. and dewpoint meet up near 25 degrees or so tomorrow morning. Now, the chances of this happening are not high, but if it occurs then we may see a "surprise" freeze. Something to watch...

Also: Looks like another shot at severe weather Friday and then a much cooler period starting this weekend. By much cooler, I mean a prolonged period of near normal/slightly below normal temps. for next week with highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s next Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday (at least). Also, expect most of next week to be cloudy with a 20-30% chance of showers each day. The pattern is beginning to change folks! and in 2 weeks we could begin to get into an even colder period, which may include a decent arctic shot capable of a few well below normal days. Overall..it looks like Late January/ Early February will be cold. Can't wait!

I don't think the winds tonight will go completely calm, which will help the temperatures not drop down to the dewpoint... Also, yes, looks like this weekend will be on the coolish side with a chance of rain! We've changed into a pattern more conducive for rain, but the really cold air just hasn't come yet. That could change though!

uh oh... latest report from Hooks airport has "calm winds". The good news is that the dewpoint is now 26..the bad news is that it is 40 (as of 8pm...probably in the 30s now). With a dewpoint still below freezing and a temp. in the 30s I would expect to reach 25-32 tonight areawide. Here are my predictions: Hooks = 29-30 degrees....IAH = 31-33 degrees...Hobby = 35-40 degrees. Outlying areas and cold pockets may get 2-4 degrees colder than their closest airport.

Sounds reasonable! Hooks is now at 37. Its going to be a cold night for sure! :cold:

Extremeweatherguy · #32 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jan 17, 2006 10:22 pm

Tyler wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Tyler wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:I am starting to get concerned about tonight. The forecast is for a freeze (32F), but I have a feeling that we may wake up to temps. in the 20s! why? Well the dewpoint is currently about 14, and the winds are dying off fast! If the winds can go calm, then we could easily see the temp. and dewpoint meet up near 25 degrees or so tomorrow morning. Now, the chances of this happening are not high, but if it occurs then we may see a "surprise" freeze. Something to watch...

Also: Looks like another shot at severe weather Friday and then a much cooler period starting this weekend. By much cooler, I mean a prolonged period of near normal/slightly below normal temps. for next week with highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s next Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday (at least). Also, expect most of next week to be cloudy with a 20-30% chance of showers each day. The pattern is beginning to change folks! and in 2 weeks we could begin to get into an even colder period, which may include a decent arctic shot capable of a few well below normal days. Overall..it looks like Late January/ Early February will be cold. Can't wait!

I don't think the winds tonight will go completely calm, which will help the temperatures not drop down to the dewpoint... Also, yes, looks like this weekend will be on the coolish side with a chance of rain! We've changed into a pattern more conducive for rain, but the really cold air just hasn't come yet. That could change though!

uh oh... latest report from Hooks airport has "calm winds". The good news is that the dewpoint is now 26..the bad news is that it is 40 (as of 8pm...probably in the 30s now). With a dewpoint still below freezing and a temp. in the 30s I would expect to reach 25-32 tonight areawide. Here are my predictions: Hooks = 29-30 degrees....IAH = 31-33 degrees...Hobby = 35-40 degrees. Outlying areas and cold pockets may get 2-4 degrees colder than their closest airport.

Sounds reasonable! Hooks is now at 37. Its going to be a cold night for sure!

just went out to check the thermometer and it's already 33 at my house! :eek:

cold for sure! :cold:

Also: the dewpoint has dropped 2 degrees at Hooks during the last hour! I wonder what the NWS evening discussion will say...they will probably lower the low temp. forecasts by at least a few degrees. I am fully expecting middle to upper 20s at my house tomorrow.

Tyler · #33 Postby **Tyler** » Tue Jan 17, 2006 10:34 pm

Yes, I'm expecting 20's as well. I'm usually 5 degrees cooler than the airport, so if they reach the low 30's, then I'll be in the 20's for sure.

Johnny · #34 Postby **Johnny** » Tue Jan 17, 2006 10:36 pm

It's 33.0 here at my house (central Montgomery County) and that if fixing to roll over to 32 here very soon....probably in the next 3 to 5 minutes easy. Not surprised at all with the way the winds were ushering in that cold air today. When I saw the winds go dead calm at sunset I knew we would drop pretty quick.

Extremeweatherguy · #35 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jan 17, 2006 10:52 pm

JB's evening post says that he expects a possible "extreme" arctic outbreak into the central and eastern US later this month/early February. He also says that just like people are forgetting the December cold, they will soon be forgetting the January heat. Could get interesting; especially since 10-20 yr.+ records are being shattered all over Europe and Asia and it is THAT cold that will seep into Alaska and then down the front range.

Extremeweatherguy · #36 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jan 17, 2006 11:01 pm

NWS evening discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
939 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...
DAYSHIFT WAS RIGHT ABOUT TEMPS PLUMMETING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
CURRENT READINGS RUNNING 2-5 DEGREES BELOW CURRENT NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE VALUES AT 9 PM. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED NICELY AND ARE
GENERALLY 5KT OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
ADDITIONAL RAPID COOLING. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE SW WHICH HAS BROUGHT DEWPOINTS BACK INTO
THE 20S (VERSUS THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS EARLIER). SO...CURRENT
THINKING IS WE`LL SEE CONTINUED RAPID COOLING FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR SLOW THEIR DECLINE WITH RISING DEWPOINTS.
WILL BE SHAVING LOW TEMPS DOWN ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES FOR THE UPDATE
THAT WILL BE COMING OUT SHORTLY. MARINE FORECASTER WILL BE MAKING
SOME CHANGES TO THE MARINE FLAGS, SINCE WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED
SOME. LOOK FOR CAUTION FLAGS IN THE 0-20NM GROUP, ADVISORY IN THE
20-60NM GROUP AND NADA IN THE BAYS. 47/35

Tyler · #37 Postby **Tyler** » Tue Jan 17, 2006 11:58 pm

I would not be suprised if IAH hit 29 tonight!

EDIT: Ok, nvm about that. I didn't realize winds had shifted to the SW so just scratch what I just said!

Extremeweatherguy · #38 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Jan 18, 2006 12:15 am

temps. look to be in the "steadying out" phase. I have noticed that on nights with good radiational cooling that we will quickly drop a good 20 degrees after sunset and then even out for about an hour or two (sometimes 3-4) and then rapidly drop again overnight. If we assumed that the 11pm update was the last steady temp. reading...then I would expect a 1-2 degree temp. drop from midnight to sunrise...if this is right, then I would expect mid 20s at my house, 27-32 at Hooks and IAH, and then 30-35 downtown and towards Hobby. It all depends though. If we see a more rapid fall in temps. then it may be even colder, yet if the temps. steady out more times tonight, then it may be much warmer. I would think that the warmest scenario for Hooks tonight is 33, and the warmest scenario at IAH is 36. The coldest is probably 25 at Hooks and 27 at IAH. We'll see in the morning...

#39 Postby **jasons2k** » Wed Jan 18, 2006 12:18 am

It sure is chilly, I'll be optimistic and say 31-32, at my house. We'll see...

NC George · #40 Postby **NC George** » Wed Jan 18, 2006 1:15 am

My prediction is for a colder Feb/March than January. One reason comes to mind - ash from the volcano currently erupting in Alaska will gradually filter out some solar energy.

Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

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