Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[ETXHAMXYL]

Talking about ash from volcano? My sister emailed me and said the volcano had a big eruption and lots of ash but it was heading towards russia. They are south of the volcano and will receive little ash so plume must be blowing back towards the NW of them. Who knows it might help lower temps in Russia at least.

I'd do anything for no wind but looks like bad hair days all week long according to NWS in NTX

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well what a weird night here in Houston. In the evening I was in the lower to middle 30s. Overnight we fell to 28-32, and now in a surprise twist of events we wake up to temps. above 40! Who would of thought?! Completely un-expected...but at Hooks there WAS officially a freeze last night.

[Air Force Met]

Well...taking a look at the new ensembles...all I can say is:

Wow.

If the long-range verifies...it's gonna start to get really cold in the lower 48 in the next 2 weeks. Really cold. Right now it looks like the bulk of it goes east....but the final set-up is far from finished.

What is happening though is that the ensembles are putting the polar vortex over the northern and northeastern US which means that -45 F air that is up in the Yukon right now is going to come south eventually.

The key for us in the south is how much of a low in the Aleutians will be there or can we develop a ridge to drain it down more southward.

It is similiar to a Mid-January 1978 pattern and late January 1961 pattern. The question will be the ridging in the west and how much cold is sent south compaired to east.

Bottom line...SOMEBODY is going to get cold with that pattern. When you see the polar vortex sitting over Wisconsin and New York...you can take it to the bank if the model is right.

[Tyler]

AFM,

Looking at the 0z ECMWF and GFS in the long range, they both develop a classic -NAO and a Greenland Block, very encouraging. All we need is that pac jet to calm down, and we're in business. I think thats been our problem all along, the pac jet has been blasting any type of sustained +PNA ridge to develop in the west, which would alow a trough in the east, and finally bring shots of arctic air out of Canada. You know the pac jet is strong when Seattle has recorded 28 days straight of rain, geeez... Obviously there are other things to look at besides the PNA and NAO, but at least things are really starting to look up for some MUCH colder weather accross the lower 48.

[jasons2k]

Well, I guess the winds kicked-in and really helped. I bottomed-out at 35.

[Tyler]

Bottomed out at 32 degrees this morning. It was a cold one for sure.

[jasons2k]

Well what a weird night here in Houston. In the evening I was in the lower to middle 30s. Overnight we fell to 28-32, and now in a surprise twist of events we wake up to temps. above 40! Who would of thought?! Completely un-expected...but at Hooks there WAS officially a freeze last night.

Well, not completely. In the AFD discussion last night they said temps would fall more rapidly at first, then level off or hold steady as the night progressed because the winds would return from the south and cause some mixing (AFD from Corpus mentioned it too).

That's what happened, except the temps did warm a bit more than they expected.

[Portastorm]

Well...taking a look at the new ensembles...all I can say is:

Wow.

If the long-range verifies...it's gonna start to get really cold in the lower 48 in the next 2 weeks. Really cold. Right now it looks like the bulk of it goes east....but the final set-up is far from finished.

What is happening though is that the ensembles are putting the polar vortex over the northern and northeastern US which means that -45 F air that is up in the Yukon right now is going to come south eventually.

The key for us in the south is how much of a low in the Aleutians will be there or can we develop a ridge to drain it down more southward.

It is similiar to a Mid-January 1978 pattern and late January 1961 pattern. The question will be the ridging in the west and how much cold is sent south compaired to east.

Bottom line...SOMEBODY is going to get cold with that pattern. When you see the polar vortex sitting over Wisconsin and New York...you can take it to the bank if the model is right.

AFM ... you da man! You da man!

I was waiting to see a pro met's take on the ensembles as it looked colder to me, but I'm an untrained eye.

Equally as exciting is the decent chance at precip for those of us in Texas over the next week.

I'm really looking forward to the next 2-3 weeks weatherwise. Should be fun to watch!

[Air Force Met]

OK...continued big changes.

The 00Z ensembles had the polar vortex over the northeast, as did the control model...but some of the suite had a split vortex...one over the eastern Canada area and one huge low over the central US with ridging into Alaska (you know what that means)...feeding into the polar vortex becoming a huge vortex over the northern US by the end of the period.

Now...on the 12z run...the control has somewhat come around with the split vortex idea with the big low in the wester/central US by 300 hours.

This is at least getting more interesting than the past pacific jet...day after day that we've had. Now...I know models are subject to change...nobody knows that more than me...but with the Siberian air now bleeding over the pole...this is setting up the change in the upper air pattern. The very reason we have had the fast pacific jet and the warm weather is that all the cold air has been over in Asia. With it now being sent over the pole...and continuing to do so over the next 2 weeks...this will adjust the jet pattern...the question now is: Who gets it?

Remember...Cold Air advection at the sfc lowers upper level heights...or pressures. So the colder it is at the sfc...the lower the pressures aloft...which means the jet is south of you if you are in the Siberian air has been in asia...we have been warm. Now it is headed towards Alaska....and right now...there is a lot of it already up there.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Looks like we might have to start a post real soon that's titled, "Texas Winter= Game on!"

Let us know when we can do that, AFM or Jeff.

[Air Force Met]

Looks like we might have to start a post real soon that's titled, "Texas Winter= Game on!"

Let us know when we can do that, AFM or Jeff.

Well...right now it's only "Winter...Game On for Somebody."

Still trying to figure out who.

[Johnny]

As we know AFM, for us to get very cold here in the deep south, the siberian air is pooling up in the right place for this to happen. I remember in January of 2004 (or 2005? brainfart) I believe we had a solid arctic high blasting into Montana. I think even you were thinking is was coming straight south but nope, it got shunted off to the east leaving us with very modified arctic air. I really don't think that air back then came down from Alaska but out of the northwest territories of Canada. This has a whole different feel to it no doubt. As you said, someone more than likely is going to get VERY cold but it's a matter of who. I sure hope it pays us a visit. Like I said before. if it's gonna get cold I want it to get COLD. This blue bird cold is for the birds.lol I look forward to hearing more on this from you.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

As we know AFM, for us to get very cold here in the deep south, the siberian air is pooling up in the right place for this to happen. I remember in January of 2004 (or 2005? brainfart) I believe we had a solid arctic high blasting into Montana. I think even you were thinking is was coming straight south but nope, it got shunted off to the east leaving us with very modified arctic air. I really don't think that air back then came down from Alaska but out of the northwest territories of Canada. This has a whole different feel to it no doubt. As you said, someone more than likely is going to get VERY cold but it's a matter of who. I sure hope it pays us a visit. Like I said before. if it's gonna get cold I want it to get COLD. This blue bird cold is for the birds.lol I look forward to hearing more on this from you.

I think you are right. From what I've seen of our sustained or prolonged Arctic attacks, usually the air comes through Montana and the Dakotas. Whereas the ones where we take an indirect hit usually go through Minniesota and the UP of Michigan.

[jeff]

Based on the 12Z models and ensembles I see what the fuss is all about with some ridging into Alaska and a downstream trough across the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes. My first take would be that it would appear the most cold would go east, however we would be dealing with cold arctic air that could bleed more southward under its own density. Also noted the "controls" were south of their climo positions. Given the cold air building in NW Canada into Alaska and a favorable delivery pattern into the US, would support the cold air coming southward, but to TX I am not sold. Did note in the GFS fields for some precip. across the southern and central plains prior to the potential arrival which could lay down a layer of snow in areas that have seen little and allow for a smaller amount of modification. Lastly, southern branch looks increasingly active especially on the ECMWF with a large cut-off over the SW US next week and this is echoed in the GFS. We may finally see a decent overrunning pattern with cool days and a widespread soaking rainfall.

[Air Force Met]

Based on the 12Z models and ensembles I see what the fuss is all about with some ridging into Alaska and a downstream trough across the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes. My first take would be that it would appear the most cold would go east, however we would be dealing with cold arctic air that could bleed more southward under its own density. Also noted the "controls" were south of their climo positions. Given the cold air building in NW Canada into Alaska and a favorable delivery pattern into the US, would support the cold air coming southward, but to TX I am not sold. Did note in the GFS fields for some precip. across the southern and central plains prior to the potential arrival which could lay down a layer of snow in areas that have seen little and allow for a smaller amount of modification. Lastly, southern branch looks increasingly active especially on the ECMWF with a large cut-off over the SW US next week and this is echoed in the GFS. We may finally see a decent overrunning pattern with cool days and a widespread soaking rainfall.

I concur. Based on the current runs that's what I'm seeing. Not enough ridging to drive it that far south...most going east and southeast.

but I also see a more wet pattern shaping up. Maybe more normal or a little wetter than normal.

[gboudx]

An overruning, wet pattern would be great. Sorely needed around here. The only way I'd want some real, cold air is if the precip is with it and we get some snow. Otherwise the East/SE can have it. I like my gas bill being manageable. Cold enough for me is highs in the 50's/lower 60's.

[txwatcher91]

What about NC? How cold could we get if this pattern verifies?

[KWT]

Well we here in the UK are in a similar boat to you, we've got some severe cold pooling to our east, moscow having its coldest day for 20 years and the models are starting to show a colder pattern wit hthe polar vortex finally moving awa\y from greenland and heading into Eastern Canada.

if this turns out much like 1978 over there, then that'll suit me to the ground as that also gave a very cold winter here as well.

[Tyler]

Based on the 12Z models and ensembles I see what the fuss is all about with some ridging into Alaska and a downstream trough across the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes. My first take would be that it would appear the most cold would go east, however we would be dealing with cold arctic air that could bleed more southward under its own density. Also noted the "controls" were south of their climo positions. Given the cold air building in NW Canada into Alaska and a favorable delivery pattern into the US, would support the cold air coming southward, but to TX I am not sold. Did note in the GFS fields for some precip. across the southern and central plains prior to the potential arrival which could lay down a layer of snow in areas that have seen little and allow for a smaller amount of modification. Lastly, southern branch looks increasingly active especially on the ECMWF with a large cut-off over the SW US next week and this is echoed in the GFS. We may finally see a decent overrunning pattern with cool days and a widespread soaking rainfall.

I concur. Based on the current runs that's what I'm seeing. Not enough ridging to drive it that far south...most going east and southeast.

but I also see a more wet pattern shaping up. Maybe more normal or a little wetter than normal.

Good thing is, is that we have plenty of time to watch this. If we can get an Alaskan ridge or a huge ridge on the west coast, then we'd be in business!

Meanwhile, next week looks cloudy, cool, and wet for the Houston area. It will be quite a change from what we've been seeing.

[jasons2k]

An overruning, wet pattern would be great. Sorely needed around here. The only way I'd want some real, cold air is if the precip is with it and we get some snow. Otherwise the East/SE can have it. I like my gas bill being manageable. Cold enough for me is highs in the 50's/lower 60's.

I'm totally with you on that A few days of some cool, overrunning rain would be perfect to help with this drought. That'd be enuf to get winter out of my system and I can cheer on Spring