Hey Texans, Look at the Rain

#1 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 9:27 am

Hey Texas...look at the GFS precip from 60 hrs - 120 hrs...

Hope this verifies.

#2 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 9:51 am

Looks like I picked a heckuva weekend to take my kids fishing! :roll:

Oh well, who cares ... we desperately need the rain. Hope it verifies as well.

cctxhurricanewatcher · #3 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 10:01 am

Please let it happen. I did notice in the NWS AFD's this AM that alot of the offices are uncertain about next week . What's new? But they are trending temps down and rain up. Hopefully they won't jinx the potential pattern change since they look like they maybe jumping on board. How many times has that happened?

#4 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 10:34 am

cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:Please let it happen. I did notice in the NWS AFD's this AM that alot of the offices are uncertain about next week . What's new? But they are trending temps down and rain up. Hopefully they won't jinx the potential pattern change since they look like they maybe jumping on board. How many times has that happened?

I have to say that it's pretty rare that the houston office calls for a 60% chance 3 days out and a 50% 4 days out. They are usually pretty conservative and don't up the chances to 50% until the 3 day mark.

Well...not conservative...they are "shy."

#5 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 10:52 am

Air Force Met wrote:
cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:Please let it happen. I did notice in the NWS AFD's this AM that alot of the offices are uncertain about next week . What's new? But they are trending temps down and rain up. Hopefully they won't jinx the potential pattern change since they look like they maybe jumping on board. How many times has that happened?

I have to say that it's pretty rare that the houston office calls for a 60% chance 3 days out and a 50% 4 days out. They are usually pretty conservative and don't up the chances to 50% until the 3 day mark.

Well...not conservative...they are "shy."

Couldn't agree with you more on that statement AFM!!!!! It looks dicey for the rain. We sure need it!!!!! As much as I dislike dreary cold wet days, I am willling to endure several to get things back to close to normal here in TX!! This last even produced a whole 0.52" at my abode in Spring Branch. :grrr:

Tyler · #6 Postby **Tyler** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 10:57 am

Air Force Met wrote:
cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:Please let it happen. I did notice in the NWS AFD's this AM that alot of the offices are uncertain about next week . What's new? But they are trending temps down and rain up. Hopefully they won't jinx the potential pattern change since they look like they maybe jumping on board. How many times has that happened?

I have to say that it's pretty rare that the houston office calls for a 60% chance 3 days out and a 50% 4 days out. They are usually pretty conservative and don't up the chances to 50% until the 3 day mark.

Well...not conservative...they are "shy."

When I looked at the forecast from this morning, I thought that was a bit odd as well. About time they took a chance.

#7 Postby **gboudx** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 12:00 pm

Last night the TV met I was watching put us at a 50% chance on Sunday Night/Monday. She's been the first to go out on a limb so far. The other mets have mentioned rain chances, but she's fairly optimistic about our rain chances. I hope she's right.

#8 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 12:13 pm

gboudx wrote:Last night the TV met I was watching put us at a 50% chance on Sunday Night/Monday. She's been the first to go out on a limb so far. The other mets have mentioned rain chances, but she's fairly optimistic about our rain chances. I hope she's right.

NWS FT WORTH gives a 30% chance for rain Sunday night thru Monday. :roll:

#9 Postby **gboudx** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 12:29 pm

Yeah, I saw that CC. I tried to watch all 4 10pm broadcasts last night and Kristine was the only one that is really jumping on it. She gave the usual caveat of it still being a few days away, but she's optimistic about the rain chances. The other mets mentioned the possibility but seemed to stay in-line with the NWS with the 30% shot.

#10 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 12:42 pm

I actually like Kristine - she tends to go out more on a limb.

For example, if it's apparent a storm is on the way sometime around Monday, what the NWS (esp. here in Houston) tends to do is say 30% Sun night, 30% monday, 30% Monday night - it's almost like CYA. To me, that's not very useful.

If it looks like it's gonna rain Monday, make the pops 0/70/0 or even 10/70/20 or something like that. Kristine tends to do it that way.

But overall the best OCM in DFW is Finfrock - by far.

southerngale · #11 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 2:20 pm

Lake Charles NWS has the Beaumont area at 40% for Sunday and 60% for Sunday night .

Local KFDM shows us at 10%/30%/40%/60% for Friday-Monday. Nice to see those rain chances every day!

It sure is breezy today, but not as strong as those north winds a few days ago.

southerngale · #12 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 6:44 pm

FWIW, NWS Lake Charles has upped their rain chances from a few hours ago:
Friday night from 30% to 40% and now Sunday and Sunday night are both 60% - thunderstorms

...and KFDM now shows 70% for Sunday and early Monday.

I like the wet trend.

aggiecutter · #13 Postby **aggiecutter** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 10:22 pm

In Texarkana, we've had measurable rainfall 3 of the last 10 days, probably a little over an inch combined. We have a 60% chance rain sunday and sunday night with the possibility for heavy rainfall.

Tyler · #14 Postby **Tyler** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 11:11 pm

Texas is looking good! Lets see if it holds. The Dallas area REALLY needs this.

Extremeweatherguy · #15 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 11:15 pm

The NWS has rain chances in Houston for 5 of the next 7 days!!! We could really chizzle away at our drought problem. If this kind of set up can last, then may be we could reduce the serious conditions in N. Texas.

Tyler · #16 Postby **Tyler** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 11:22 pm

We can only hope!

Tyler · #17 Postby **Tyler** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 11:24 pm

Just looked at the 144 hour, and looks like another chance for rain accross Texas!! I really believe we are now finally in a much better pattern for rain.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml

Johnny · #18 Postby **Johnny** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 12:40 pm

It's good to see solid rain chances back in our forecast. The private lake around the corner from my house is way low. Last year I hammer the crappie on a creek on the back side of this lake for a month straight. As of now, this creek is way low and just about dried up. I need it to fill back up before the crappie start spawning in mid February!! :blow:

Johnny · #19 Postby **Johnny** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 3:04 pm

Well, it looks like southeast, Texas is getting a little more rain today than what was currently forecasted. Lots of popcorn convection firing up on radar at the moment.

http://www.khou.com/images/weather/dop640.jpg

#20 Postby **gboudx** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 5:57 pm

My area has a 60% chance on Sunday, and 40% for Wed/Wed night/Thur next week. I just hope that at least 1 of those verifies.

Hey Texans, Look at the Rain

Hey Texans, Look at the Rain

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