MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0070
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0103 PM CST THU JAN 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN WI AND THE U.P. OF MI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 191903Z - 192300Z
   
   OCCASIONALLY MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW WILL TRANSITION EAST-NORTHEAST
   ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND THE WESTERN MI UPPER PENINSULA THIS
   AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED SNOW RATES MAY REACH 1 IN/HR FOR A FEW HOURS
   DURATION.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING
   FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY
   CONCENTRATED AREA OF MODERATE/OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS OCCURRING
   ACROSS NORTHWEST WI AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS ACTIVITY LARGELY
   ORIENTED WITH MODEST LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND
   ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER IMPULSE. SIMILAR TO ONGOING TRENDS...LATEST
   RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN EASTWARD TRANSITION OF THIS SNOW ACROSS FAR
   NORTHERN WI AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI THROUGH 21Z-00Z.
   RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR DEPICT AMPLE OMEGA COINCIDENT
   WITH SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED
   POTENTIAL FOR 1 IN/HR LOCALIZED SNOW RATES FOR A FEW HOURS DURATION.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...
   
   46619183 46659045 46948937 47158826 46288748 45968911
   45839056 45829145 46189195

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0071
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0550 PM CST THU JAN 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CO FRONT RANGE
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 192350Z - 200415Z
   
   MODERATE/OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING
   ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE. SNOW RATES MAY REACH 1 IN/HR FOR SEVERAL
   HOURS DURATION THROUGH 06Z.
   
   SNOW IS ONGOING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY...WITH
   SNOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE/SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   INTO THE PUEBLO VICINITY AND MUCH OF PUEBLO/CUSTER/HUERFANO
   COUNTIES. SCENARIO IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING
   EASTWARD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GIVEN THE
   EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS IMPULSE...INCREASING LOW LEVEL
   UPSLOPE/EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES IN LOWEST 1 KM AGL -- REFERENCE
   WSR-88D VWP FROM DENVER/PUEBLO -- AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
   FORCING/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED SNOW RATES
   ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND MOUNTAINOUS EAST SLOPES/ADJACENT HIGH
   PLAINS THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS CORRIDOR
   SUGGEST SEVERAL HOURS OF VERTICAL PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLE
   OMEGA COINCIDENT WITH WELL-SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER. ALTHOUGH
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN IMMEDIATE
   VICINITY OF PUEBLO...A QUICK CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED UPON
   EFFECTIVE SATURATION.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...
   
   39350486 39340377 38860368 38430412 37950437 37230475
   37540548 37980568 38370581 38750579 39210539

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0072
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1139 PM CST THU JAN 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...WRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 200539Z - 201145Z
   
   MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING AND/OR
   DEVELOPING SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO
   WESTERN KANSAS.  SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD REACH 1 IN/HR FOR SEVERAL
   HOURS THROUGH 12 UTC.
   
   AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN NM BY 12 UTC,
   FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE COLORADO
   FRONT RANGE INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS.  THE WESTERN PORTION OF
   THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO SEE STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION AND PRECIPITATION
   ENDING BY 12 UTC. STRONG MOIST ASCENT IN THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC
   GROWTH REGION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD ALLOW SEVERAL
   HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
   
   ..BOTHWELL.. 01/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   37040431 37760467 38530459 39140375 39380224 39390005
   37210129

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0073
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1032 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NRN MO...SERN NEB...SRN/CENTRAL/ERN IA
   AND NWRN/WCENTRAL IL
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 201632Z - 202130Z
   
   A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HVY SNOW DEVELOPING FROM SCENTRAL NEB
   NEWD INTO WCENTRAL IA LATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ENEWD AND EXTEND
   FROM SWRN INTO CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY NERN IA BY 21Z. HRLY RATES
   WITHIN THE HEAVY SNOW BAND MAY EXCEED 1 INCH/HR FOR A 1-2 HR PERIOD.
   FURTHER SOUTH...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW WILL
   OCCUR OVER NERN KS AND NRN MO...WITH MODERATE SNOW  LIKELY OVER
   SCENTRAL IA BY MID AFTERNOON. MIXED PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AS FAR NWD AS
   SERN IA/WCENTRAL IL BEFORE 21Z. CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF PRECIPITATION
   WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS WITH HRLY LIQUID EQUIV. RATES UP TO
   0.10 IN.
   
   LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATED A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WAS
   DEVELOPING OVER NCENTRAL KS INTO FAR SCENTRAL NEB. THIS FEATURE
   ALONG WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SCENTRAL KS
   HAS SUPPORTED AN INCREASING TREND IN LOW LEVEL WAA/MID LEVEL
   FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FROM NRN KS INTO WRN IA. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
   PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL
   FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LOCATED IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER /PER REGIONAL
   PROFILER DATA/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RELATIVELY NARROW HVY SNOW
   BAND FROM SERN NEB INTO SWRN/CENTRAL IA THROUGH 21Z. DRY AIR
   INITIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE WITH THE ONSET OF
   THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE BAND. WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING
   COEXISTENT WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER...AND WITH THE
   RELATIVELY SLOW NATURE OF THE BAND MOVEMENT...UP TO A 2 HR DURATION
   OF 1 IN/HR SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS FRONTOGENETIC HEAVY
   SNOWFALL BAND MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ENEWD INTO NERN IA BY MID
   AFTERNOON WITH THE AID OF INCREASING MID LEVEL WAA OVER CENTRAL/ERN
   IA.
   
   FURTHER SOUTH...MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL WAA...ALONG WITH ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVER NERN KS
   INTO NRN MO AND SRN IA. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW LEVEL
   PRESSURE RISES OVER SRN IA/NCENTRAL MO. CONSEQUENTLY THE SFC
   FREEZING LINE HAS BEEN SAGGING SLOWLY SWD OVER NRN MO/NERN KS. WITH
   THE PRESENCE OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT /CENTERED AROUND 850 MB/ MOST OF
   THE PRECIPITATION OVER NERN KS/NRN MO WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SLEET
   AND/OR FREEZING RAIN. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION
   OVER NRN MO...WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES OBSERVED RECENTLY...HRLY PRECIP
   RATES UP TO 0.10 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. MIXED PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AS
   FAR NORTH AS SERN IA/WCENTRAL IL BEFORE 21Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
   
   43019300 41849586 40279775 39939774 39179700 38699580
   38999339 40229085 40929045 42469129

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0074
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0339 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN IA...SRN/ERN WI...NRN IL...FAR NWRN
   IND...SWRN/CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 202139Z - 210345Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP ENEWD FROM NRN/CENTRAL IA INTO SRN WI AND EVENTUALLY
   WCENTRAL/NRN LOWER MI BY 03Z. SECONDARY AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NRN IL THROUGH 00Z...WHILE MOVING INTO SWRN
   AND CENTRAL LOWER MI FROM 01Z-03Z. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES WILL
   EXCEED 1 INCH WITH ISOLATED 2 INCH/HR RATES POSSIBLE OVER THE CHI
   METRO AREA NEWD INTO SWRN LOWER MI. A MIX OF SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE
   AS WELL...MAINLY AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP AND OVER PORTIONS OF NRN
   IL/NWRN IND INTO SWRN LOWER MI.
   
   IR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MID LVL DRY SLOT THAT CONTINUES TO
   WORK SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS NRN MO AND FAR SRN IA. NORTH OF THIS DRY
   SLOT...STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN A VERY FAVORABLE
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WAS AIDING IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW FROM CENTRAL
   INTO NERN IA. THIS FORCING FOR HEAVY SNOW BANDS IS FORECAST TO
   CONTINUE LIFTING ENEWD WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM...AND MOVE INTO SRN/ERN
   WI THROUGH 00Z...AND EVENTUALLY INTO WCENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NRN
   LOWER MI BETWEEN 00Z-03Z. SOUTH OF THIS ZONE...STRONG WAA EVIDENT BY
   REGIONAL VWP DATA...CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY EVIDENT BY LIGHTNING
   STRIKES/VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY AND SFC PRESSURE FALLS SUGGESTS THAT
   MODERATE-HVY SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP....ONCE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL
   SATURATION OCCURS IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS OVER SCENTRAL/SERN WI AND
   NRN IL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER NRN IL SUGGEST SUFFICIENTLY DEEP
   ELEVATED WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 800 MB THAT PRECIP SHOULD START
   AS SLEET AND MAY AGAIN CHANGE OVER TO SLEET BRIEFLY DURING THE
   HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM 00-03Z. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW-MID LEVEL
   FORCING AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH 1-2
   INCHES/HR FOR BRIEF PERIODS ACROSS NRN IL/SERN WI FROM 23-02Z.
   STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION AND CONSEQUENT HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL WILL
   BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SWRN/CENTRAL MI FROM 01-03Z. IN ADDITION LOW
   LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER NRN IL AND SWRN
   LOWER MI/NWRN IND AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES SRN
   IL. THIS SHOULD AID IN A SWD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND
   SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BEST ESTIMATE ON
   THREAT FOR WINTER PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80/I-90 IN
   NRN IL AND NORTH OF I-94 IN SWRN LOWER MI.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
   
   44488645 44208861 43549063 42779244 42149318 41469265
   41139154 41139032 41168963 41288840 41398715 41738631
   42028580 42728414 43658395 44498405 44668514

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0076
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1152 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 210552Z - 211145Z
   
   BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 1-2 INCHES IS
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN PORTIONS OF LOWER MI
   OVERNIGHT. A NARROW ZONE OF FREEZING RAIN CURRENTLY OBSERVED FROM
   FNT TO AZO MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE I-94
   CORRIDOR...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM W TO E WITH
   TIME.
   
   CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS MID AND UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   DE-AMPLIFYING AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
   TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NERN IND AS OF 05Z.
   ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDED ENEWD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS ERN LOWER
   MI INTO SWRN ONTARIO WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHED SWWD INTO
   E-CNTRL IL.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL
   DATA SHOW MAIN BAND OF HEAVY SNOW FROM W-CNTRL LOWER MI SWWD TO THE
   CHICAGO METRO AREA WHERE HOURLY SNOW RATES OF 2 INCHES HAVE BEEN
   REPORTED WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE
   TO STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WITHIN
   SYNOPTIC SYSTEM DEFORMATION ZONE IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS BAND
   OF HEAVY SNOW. CORRESPONDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   DEEP...SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...SUPPORTIVE OF DENDRITE
   GROWTH VIA AGGREGATION.  MOREOVER...CONVECTIVE CHARACTER ALONG SRN
   EDGE OF PRIMARY PRECIPITATION SHIELD INDICATES THE LIKELIHOOD OF
   MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY ENHANCE
   PRECIPITATION RATES.
   
   THROUGH 21/12Z...IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL FROM
   MKG AND BEH NEWD THROUGH LAN TO NEAR OR S OF BAX. HOURLY RATES WILL
   LIKELY PEAK AT 1-1.5 INCHES THOUGH SOME LOCAL RATES MAY EXCEED 2
   INCHES IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...
   
   42048483 41488742 42578806 44018673 44918372 44888216
   43778180 42258380

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0077
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1234 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN/WRN VA AND ERN WV
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 221834Z - 230030Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN WITH HOURLY RATES OVER 0.05 IN. COULD DEVELOP OVER
   PORTIONS OF SWRN VA AND SERN WV...MAINLY THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
   CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND IMMEDIATE VALLEYS...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
   21Z. INCREASING EXPECTATION OF FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
   21-00Z AS WET BULB EFFECTS PERSIST AND DIURNAL COOLING EFFECTS
   OCCUR. IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
   MAY SPREAD NWD INTO PORTIONS OF NWRN VA AND THE WV PANHANDLE BY 00Z.
   FREEZING RAIN RATES WELL OVER 0.10 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
   00Z...GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION.
   
   LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HVY
   PRECIPITATION OVER NERN TN AND ERN KY....AIDED BY STRONG LOW-MID
   LEVEL WAA /PER MORRISTOWN VWP DATA/. A SLIVER OF ELEVATED CAPE AND
   STEEP LAPSE RATES /CENTERED AROUND 500 MB/ WAS SUPPORTING THIS
   EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS...SFC DATA SHOWS
   COLD/DRY AIR WAS DAMMED UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MTNS OF
   SERN WV/SWRN VA. RECENT SFC TRENDS SHOW THAT DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
   SLOWLY FILTER INTO WRN VA...WITH DEWPTS IN THE TEENS OVER MUCH OF
   THE AREA. DESPITE THE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS..SUFFICIENTLY
   STRONG WET-BULB COOLING AFFECTS WITH MODERATE RAIN MOVING INTO THE
   AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR SATURATION TO OCCUR RELATIVELY QUICKLY /1-2
   HRS/ WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
   MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WET-BULB EFFECTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
   TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE SUB-FREEZING MARK OVER MUCH OF THE SRN
   SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OF SWRN
   VA AND SERN WV BEGINNING AROUND 21Z. THE PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED
   WARM LAYER STARTING JUST UNDER 1 KM...SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST
   ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS /ABOVE 3000 FT/ SHOULD SEE
   ONLY RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
   
   37618090 38997943 39287911 39387856 39047808 38457810
   37667898 37037966 36967999 36928010 37008060 37338090

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0079
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0657 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN OH...WRN AND CENTRAL PA...ERN
   WV...WRN VA AND NRN MD
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 230057Z - 230630Z
   
   A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD FROM
   WRN VA/ERN WV INTO PORTIONS OF FAR NERN WV...WRN/CENTRAL PA...AND
   POSSIBLY NERN OH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE NRN EXTENT OF
   THE MIXED PRECIP IS FORECAST TO REACH GENERALLY THE NY/PA BORDER BY
   06Z...WITH MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THIS AREA
   LATER TONIGHT. HRLY QPF AMTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 0.05 IN...WITH
   ISOLATED 0.10 IN/HR AMOUNTS.
   
   BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 850-700
   MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NEWD AHEAD OF MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH. 00Z SOUNDING FROM RNK INDICATES A CLASSIC FREEZING RAIN
   PROFILE....WITH A 7000 FT DEEP ELEVATED WARM LAYER ABOVE 1500 FT
   AGL. ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED IN THIS LAYER HAS LEAD TO MODERATE
   TO HVY PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN/WRN VA AND SERN WV OVER
   THE LAST FEW HOURS. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST BULK OF LOW LEVEL
   VERTICAL MOTION SUPPORTING THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   LIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO NWRN/ERN VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS
   THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS IN THESE AREAS.
   
   FURTHER NORTH...BOTH THE 00Z IAD/ILN SOUNDINGS HAD SIMILARLY DEEP
   ELEVATED WARM LAYERS /AROUND 4000 FT/...ALBEIT BASED AT DIFFERENT
   LEVELS. SFC CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF WRN AND CENTRAL PA...NERN WV/NRN
   MD SUGGEST THAT WET-BULB TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AOB 32 F WITHIN
   A FEW HOURS OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
   THAT SUFFICIENT WET-BULB COOLING FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER
   NERN OH/SWRN PA...DUE TO THE RECENT TRENDS IN RISING DEWPTS AFTER
   THE PRECIPITATION MOVED INTO SRN OH. NONETHELESS...THE ELEVATED WARM
   LAYER DEPTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER
   WRN/CENTRAL PA AND NRN MD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS /BEGINNING TO
   SHOW UP ON THE 00Z PIT SOUNDING/. WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES WET-BULB
   BELOW 32F...FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME THE PRIMARY
   P-TYPE OVER MOST OF SWRN/SCENTRAL PA AND NERN WV/NRN MD. DIMINISHING
   ELEVATED WARM LAYER DEPTH...SUGGEST A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
   EXPECTED AS FAR NORTH AS I-80 BY 03Z...WITH SLEET THE PRIMARY P-TYPE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF I-80 TOWARDS 06Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
   
   37478010 37397932 38067844 38657770 39497699 40347635
   41187617 41707667 41777811 41687922 41548040 41218121
   40818212 40368221 40158183 40408104 40047992 39187938
   38927943 37748032

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0080
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1247 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NERN PA / NRN NJ / FAR SERN NY / SWRN
   NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 230647Z - 231145Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PA...WITH
   MDT TO LOCALLY HVY SNOW DEVELOPING NEWD INTO WRN CT. SNOW OVER SERN
   PA WILL CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES
   BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
   LAST FEW HOURS. PROBABILISTIC PRECIPITATION TYPE ALGORITHMS BASED ON
   THE NAM AND RUC MODELS INDICATE FREEZING RAIN MOST PROBABLE TYPE IN
   ZONE BOUNDED BY JST TO AOO TO FIG TO UNV. HRLY FREEZING RAINFALL
   RATES AROUND 0.05" ARE ANTICIPATED SO SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE
   SIGNIFICANT ICING BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES BACK TO RAIN AFTER
   SUNRISE.
   
   FARTHER NE...PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER ERN PA AND NJ WILL CONTINUE
   TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NEWD WITH VERY STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
   DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS FROM NAM AND RUC INDICATE SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN PA
   AND NJ WILL CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MDT TO HVY
   SNOWFALL WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 1.00" WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A NARROW
   ZONE ACROSS NERN PA INTO SERN NY AND WRN CT THROUGH 12Z.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 01/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...
   
   41357350 41247434 41267473 41347544 41277662 41217723
   40767777 40077816 39967877 40137897 40687893 41107907
   41447864 41837694 42057493 42187376 42037288 41637267

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0081
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0607 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY / NRN CT AND RI / SRN VT AND NH / SRN ME
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 231207Z - 231800Z
   
   MAXIMUM SNOW RATES OF 1.00-1.50 IN/HR APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE
   MORNING HOURS. SNOW MAY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS MORNING
   OVER FAR SWRN NEW ENGLAND.
   
   SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND NEWD ON NOSE OF STRONG
   LOW LEVEL JET / WARM ADVECTION. W-E ORIENTED ZONE OF FRONTOGENETICAL
   FORCING WILL SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
   ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE MD AREA. HEAVY SNOW IN EXCESS OF AN INCH
   PER HOUR APPEARS LIKELY GIVEN HRLY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 0.10"
   UPSTREAM. IN ADDITION...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
   THE UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH LIGHT NLY WINDS. GIVEN
   SOME CYCLOGENESIS TO THE SE AND WARMING ALOFT...PROFILES WILL BECOME
   FAVORABLE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS MORNING...AS INDICATED
   BY RUC AND NAM PTYPE ALGORITHMS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 01/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...
   
   44026970 44057148 43077324 42687471 41717492 41597372
   41977083 42887058

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0082
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1218 PM CST MON JAN 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ME AND PARTS OF NH
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 231818Z - 232215Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN
   19-20Z OVER ERN/SRN NH...AND BY 21Z OVER SWRN ME. HEAVY SNOW IS
   ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP EWD INTO DOWNEAST ME BETWEEN 18-20Z...BEFORE
   DIMINISHING OVER THIS AREA AROUND 22Z.
   
   STRONG WAA IN THE SFC-700 MB LAYER AS EVIDENT BY THE BOSTON AND GRAY
   ME VWP/S AND STRONG PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED OVER CAPE COD WERE
   SUPPORTING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER MUCH OF ERN NH
   INTO SWRN ME. CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
   ENEWD MOTION OF THE STRONGEST WAA ALONG THE 850-700 MB BAROCLINIC
   ZONE WILL TAKE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ENEWD ALONG THE
   REMAINDER OF SRN ME THROUGH 20Z. SINCE SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BECOME
   ENELY OR NELY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PRIOR TO THE SURFACE LOW
   RESIDING IN THE GULF OF ME...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT THE SNOWFALL
   ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
   
   RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE WRN EDGE OF
   MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING WAS QUICKLY MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN NEW
   ENGLAND. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS WRN EDGE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
   FORCING WILL BRINGS IT TO THE NH/ME BORDER BY AROUND 20Z...AND TO
   THE ERN GULF OF ME/DOWNEAST ME BY 23Z. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
   UPPER LEVEL FORCING...THE SUPPORT FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH IN THE
   700-500 MB LAYER WILL END AND SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH
   SIGNIFICANTLY.
   
   ..CROSBIE/GRAMS.. 01/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...
   
   45196728 44857042 44307146 43467165 43187143 43137067
   43827001 44496814 44746729

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0083
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0547 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND WRN NY/WRN AND CNTRL PA/WV
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 242347Z - 250445Z
   
   ...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE
   OROGRAPHIC ASCENT/LAKE EFFECT...
   
   LATEST WV/SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW POTENT JET STREAK MOVING INTO THE OH
   VALLEY. STRONG ASCENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS ENTIRE REGION GIVEN
   INCREASING CONVECTION/LIGHTNING OVER SW PA. INITIAL BAND OF SNOW NOW
   OVER WRN PA WILL MOVE BY FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW
   MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT. IN
   PARTICULAR...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV WILL LIKELY HAVE HEAVIER
   SNOWS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z AS THE COLUMN COOLS SUFFICIENTLY FOR
   SNOW.
   
   MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
   ZONES DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
   VEER TO WLY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL
   ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEPENING LAPSE
   RATES FROM THE SFC-500MB ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CAA. EARLIER REPORT
   OF THUNDERSNOW AT PIT IS EVIDENCE OF STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE
   SYSTEM.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 01/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
   
   41597571 40067741 37808082 38328096 41137987 42717881
   43137762 44257576 43967460

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0084
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0545 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...THE CASCADE RANGE OF SRN WA / ORE INTO NRN CA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 281145Z - 281745Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP ABOVE 3000-3500 FT MSL THIS MORNING.  THIS HEAVY SNOW WILL
   BEGIN TO DECREASE AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SRN
   WA/NRN ORE AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN ORE/NRN CA.
   
   EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH
   APPROACHING THE WA AND ORE COASTS WITH A RECENT BURST OF LIGHTNING
   ACTIVITY OBSERVED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR ALONG THE ORE COAST.  INTENSE
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND RESULTANT STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT...WHICH IS NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE FRONT WHICH
   HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND EXTENDS FROM E OF UIL TO E OF AST TO JUST E OF
   ONP AS OF 11Z.
   
   EXPECT THE ZONE OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND
   MID-TROPOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION TO SPREAD INLAND BETWEEN
   12-15Z...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY ABOVE 3000-3500 FT
   MSL.  SNOW RATES WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES PER HOUR AT THIS
   TIME...THOUGH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENT MAY SUPPORT LOCALIZED
   RATES UPWARDS OF TWO AND A HALF TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR.  GIVEN
   GENERAL SEWD MOTION OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC
   FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
   HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SRN WA AND NRN ORE...WHILE THE HEAVY SNOW MAY
   WELL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ORE CASCADES
   INTO NRN CA.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...STO...SEW...PQR...EKA...
   
   41462348 43972285 46332246 47002221 47432155 46482075
   43622111 41572189 40682211 40562309

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0109
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN ME
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 031820Z - 032215Z
   
   AFTER INITIAL SNOW...A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF PREDOMINANT FREEZING
   RAIN IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. HOURLY LIQUID
   EQUIVALENTS OF 0.05-0.10 INCH OR GREATER APPEARS LIKELY...WITH SOME
   ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
   ATTENDANT 997 MB SURFACE LOW INVOF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH BROAD
   PRECIPITATION SHIELD /TIED TO STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT/ SPREADING
   ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH INITIAL PRECIP TYPE
   ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WILL BE IN FORM OF SNOW...ENCROACHING MID
   LEVEL WARM LAYER WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN AMIDST
   STRONG WAA PROFILES AS SEEN IN 12Z RAOBS AND REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS.
   LATEST RUC/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SREF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
   GENERAL TRANSITION TO PREDOMINANT FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 20Z-22Z
   ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY N/NW OF A MILLINOCKET TO PRESQUE
   ISLE AXIS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 02/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...
   
   46576790 46036835 45806892 45816954 46046997 46267013
   46537008 47036969 47376920 47396833 47136779 46936766

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0122
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1209 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL OH AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 041809Z - 042245Z
   
   PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
   WESTERN/CENTRAL OH AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI...WITH MDT/PERHAPS LOCALLY
   HEAVY WET SNOW DEVELOPING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES MAY
   REACH 1 IN/HR AFTER 21Z.
   
   MATURE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
   REGION...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS MAXIMIZED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
   IN VICINITY OF LAKE HURON AND DEEPENING 994 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
   NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER AT 18Z. ALTHOUGH RAIN INITIALLY EXISTS ACROSS
   MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MI/CENTRAL OH AT MIDDAY...COMPACTING THERMAL
   FIELDS ON PERIPHERY OF EARLY-OCCLUDING CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT A
   RELATIVELY QUICK CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO
   TREND IN AVAILABLE TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM NEAR DETROIT/DAYTON...THIS
   SCENARIO APPEARS WELL DEPICTED VIA 15Z RUC/12Z NAM FORECAST VERTICAL
   PROFILES AND 09Z SREF CONSENSUS...WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW LIKELY
   BY 21Z FOR A DETROIT-TOLEDO-FINDLAY-COLUMBUS CORRIDOR. MID LEVEL
   /600-800 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING /ESPECIALLY AS DEPICTED BY THE
   GFS AND RUC/ IN PRESENCE OF WEAK STATIC STABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE
   FOR SSW-NNE BANDING AND ENHANCED SNOW RATES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..GUYER.. 02/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...
   
   43758266 42948258 41868293 40928230 39758282 39108328
   39018358 39178420 39608472 41808439 42608415 43728341

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0123
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1252 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WA CASCADES
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
   
   VALID 041852Z - 042315Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WA CASCADES THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR POSSIBLE.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS CORE OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE
   PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WA
   CASCADES INTO EARLY EVENING. LATEST MESONET OBSERVATIONS AUGMENTED
   BY 00 HOUR RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND
   3500 FT. AS VERTICAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO COOL...LATEST RUC FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 2000-2500 FT BY
   EARLY EVENING. STRONG UVVS COINCIDENT WITH DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER AND
   HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
   EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 50-60 KTS SAMPLED
   IN 2-5 KM LAYER IN ACARS SOUNDINGS /EAST OF SEATTLE/ WILL CREATE
   BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 02/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR...
   
   48972088 48592062 47242106 46662131 46212161 46162200
   46282221 46482224 47052197 47322170 48032166 48442196
   48712211 48962205

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0125
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0717 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 050117Z - 050545Z
   
   MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
   MUCH OF EASTERN LOWER MI THROUGH THE EVENING. SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR
   WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS OCCLUDING/CLOSED LOW OVER
   THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 989 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER LAKE
   HURON AT 01Z. ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CYCLONE...ELEVATED
   MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS WRAPPING WESTWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN IN
   PRESENCE OF STRONG UVVS. AS SEEN IN CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...MID
   LEVEL /800-600 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
   BANDING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW RATES. 00Z DETROIT RAOB FEATURES
   DEEPLY SATURATED /1.5 KM/ DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. COUPLED WITH AMPLE
   UVVS...AND ENHANCED BY MOIST TRAJECTORIES OFF OF LAKE HURON...SNOW
   RATES OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z. IN
   ADDITION...INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTH WINDS -- AS SEEN IN LOWEST FEW
   KM TRENDS OF DETROIT/ALPENA WSR-88D VADS -- WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE
   TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 02/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
   
   42948245 42188291 41998331 42088381 42398420 43698429
   44788525 45038539 45488506 45698455 45588398 45368356
   44858328 44578324 44088347 43848323 44048298 43978273
   43868258 43428246

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1150 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 050550Z - 051015Z
   
   MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST TO EAST
   CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 12 UTC. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN/HR ARE
   POSSIBLE IN THE REGION...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TOWARD MORNING.
   
   MID LEVEL OCCLUDED CYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH
   ASSOCIATED 986 MB SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST TIP
   OF LAKE ONTARIO AT 05 UTC. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AREAL COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY OF MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS INCREASED SINCE 04 UTC
   OVER NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. ONGOING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS LATEST
   RUC AND 00 UTC NAM INDICATE STRONG UVVS /Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/ ALONG
   NORTH/NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL OCCLUSION THROUGH 12 UTC.
   MOISTURE TRANSPORT WRAPPING AROUND CLOSED LOW ALONG WITH FAVORABLE
   PROFILES OF TEMPERATURE AND ASCENT SUPPORT DENDRITIC GROWTH AND 1
   IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES UNTIL 10 TO 12 UTC. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
   BELOW FREEZING WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION AND BLOWING SNOW
   EXPECTED.
   
   ..BRIGHT.. 02/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
   
   45508504 45688470 45528400 45228339 44838332 44328333
   44118356 43808386 43608373 44008312 43968288 43798265
   43358249 43128259 42968267 42818287 42728326 42898393
   43338413 43698439 44098454 44678519 45158529

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0128
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 PM CST MON FEB 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LAKE EFFECT AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL NY
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 062053Z - 070130Z
   
   HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
   EARLY EVENING...WITH A SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF ORGANIZED BAND ACROSS
   LEWIS/SOUTHERN JEFFERSON/NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES...FURTHER
   ENHANCING ONGOING HEAVY SNOW INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. SNOW RATES
   OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   
   HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE LEE OF LAKE
   ONTARIO...HIGHLIGHTED BY MOIST UPSLOPE INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND
   WELL ORGANIZED/LONG CONNECTED BAND ACROSS JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN
   LEWIS COUNTIES NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. THIS SINGLE BAND IS
   FURTHER ENHANCED BY LONG TRAJECTORIES OVER UPSTREAM LAKES /NAMELY
   HURON/ PER SATELLITE IMAGERY/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA. AS SUGGESTED BY
   WRF-4KM/18Z RUC GUIDANCE...A SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF THE EXISTING
   SINGLE BAND SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS TRAJECTORIES TREND
   TOWARD THE NW. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/AMPLE LAKE INDUCED CAPE
   IN PRESENCE OF 3 KM INVERSION HEIGHTS/MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL
   PROMOTE 2-3 IN/HR SNOW RATES.
   
   ..GUYER.. 02/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   43877636 44187514 44077440 43547456 43257625

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0131
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0404 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 102204Z - 110300Z
   
   ...HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN
   ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SNOW RATES WILL
   APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR...
   
   LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEVERAL BANDS OF MODERATE/HEAVY
   SNOW DEVELOPING EWD FROM ERN AR/WRN TN INTO MIDDLE TN/SRN KY. SNOW
   RATES ARE CURRENTLY AT LEAST AN INCH PER HOUR IN THE MEMPHIS
   AREA...WHERE SNOW HAS BEEN MODERATE TO HEAVY OVER THE PAST 2-3
   HOURS. THESE BANDS OF SNOW ARE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL
   FRONTOGENESIS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MAXIMIZED ACROSS MIDDLE
   TN AND THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH
   WET BULB TEMPS ACROSS MIDDLE TN ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...SFC
   DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
   QUICKLY AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W/SW.
   
   LATEST MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE MESOSCALE EFFECTS OF THE HEAVY
   BANDS OF SNOW VERY WELL. OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UPSTREAM ARE
   ON THE ORDER OF 0.2 INCHES PER HOUR...SUGGESTING THAT PRECIPITATION
   AMOUNTS ACROSS MIDDLE TN MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST BY OPERATIONAL
   MODELS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 02/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...
   
   35868991 36498828 36618555 35698597 34969011