-60F in Alaska...Brrrr, it's getting mighty cold up there..

[Sean in New Orleans]

FPAK53PAFG_AKZ218
-----------------
AKZ218-211515-
SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-
INCLUDING...ARCTIC VILLAGE...WISEMAN...COLDFOOT...CHANDALAR
D.O.T. CAMP...INIAKUK LAKE
310 PM AST FRI JAN 20 2006
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY ICE FOG. LOWS 45 TO 60 BELOW.
VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY ICE FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS
AROUND 30 TO 45 BELOW. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 25 TO 40 BELOW. NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 15 BELOW. NORTH WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 25 BELOW. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 15 BELOW.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 30 BELOW.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 10 BELOW.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 35 BELOW.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 20 BELOW.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 35 BELOW.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 20 BELOW.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 35 BELOW.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 10 BELOW.

&&
TEMPERATURE / PRECIPITATION
ARCTIC VILLAGE -51 -33 -34 -16 / 0 0 0 0

http://pafg.arh.noaa.gov/zonefcst.php?zone=218

[Scorpion]

In Alaska, that type of cold is not that uncommon. I doubt it shows any indication that there will be cold in the lower 48 anytime soon.

[southerngale]

In Alaska, that type of cold is not that uncommon. I doubt it shows any indication that there will be cold in the lower 48 anytime soon.

Actually, it does. Air Force Met posted about the -60° temp in Alaska earlier today and its relevance. Check out this thread:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 8&start=80

[Extremeweatherguy]

In Alaska, that type of cold is not that uncommon. I doubt it shows any indication that there will be cold in the lower 48 anytime soon.

Are you kidding? the low tonight in fairbanks is suppose to be -33 which is 21 degrees colder than their normal late January low of -12. Highs this time of year are typically near 3 in Fairbanks and the last few days have been in the negative teens and twenties! They are over 20 degrees below normal over much of Alaska....anything but normal.

[Air Force Met]

In Alaska, that type of cold is not that uncommon. I doubt it shows any indication that there will be cold in the lower 48 anytime soon.

Actually cold pooling in Alaska...especially in the -60F range is a GREAT indication that the lower 48 is going to be getting colder in the next couple of weeks. The ensembles are picking this up...you might want to take a look at them. The only arguement is not that is comes south...but does it go south or southeast.

Now...yes that kind of cold is not unheard of...and not all that uncommon (but not as common as you think)...but it's not a non-factor as you make it out to be. What it means, especially when you combine it with the fact that it has been near normal there for most of the winter (there are places in the northern interior that are 20 to 30 degrees below normal), is that the cold air which has been draining all winter into Asia is now draining into North America and pooling.

Cold air doesn't just pool...it moves. It has to go somewhere...it doesn't just stay in it's source region. Ask the people in Moscow or Japan. The upper pattern shifted and now the Siberian air is draining into Alaska.

Cold air modifies it's upper air pattern. Cold air is not driven by the upper air pattern alone. IN other words, it doesn't just go where the jet says go...it can...when cold enough (and arctic air is cold enough) change the pattern. The Feb 1989 outbreak was a CLASSIC example of this. The jet was zonal but because of extreme cold air advection...and CAA LOWERS upper level heights...causes height falls and lower pressures aloft...the jet dug southward in response to the air moving south.

So...it's a question of which way it decides to move and when the high pressure decides to start building in the source region.

Now I don't know about you, but if it was 30 degrees below normal at my house...it would be a little uncommon. Even if it is Alaska, -60F is cold. The record for Fairbanks is -61. The 1989 (Feb) outbreak (which was colder than the big outbreak in December) was only 10 degrees colder than what they have now. Now they are 20 below normal...which if this was HOuston would mean it would be 21...not toally unheard of...but not that common.

In Arctic Village, where the -60F temps have been, their all time low is -68. Tell me Scorpion....if you were sitting your house and YOU were within 8 degrees of your ALL TIME RECORD LOW...would YOU consider it not uncommon? I'm looking at 24F on 29 Dec, 1894 as the all time record low for West Palm Beach. I am assuming that if it was 32 at West Palm right now, you would think it a little uncommon.

I know if it was 14 here in Houston, I would think it a little uncommon. I'm thinking, now I might be wrong, that if Sean was looking at 19F in New Orleans...he might also think it's a little uncommon.

So it's not as common as you think.

[BReb]

Alaska is colder than normal, but Canada is warmer than normal and is forecast to stay that way for the next 10 days. I just checked the forecast for Edmonton, Winnipeg and, Yellowknife, Whitehorse and Churchill and compared them to averages and they are all above average and forecast to stay that way for the most part- at least according to weather.com.

I recognize we may be in for a cold spell in the lower 48 but I'm still not wowed by the amount of cold air up north. And you'd think the Canadian forecasts way up in northern Canda would start picking up the frigid air in their long-range forecasts if truly extraordinary cold air were heading down. The forecasts show a cooling around Jan. 25-26, but nothing that remarkable and forecasts show temps quickly rising after that.

[Scorpion]

Well I am pretty sure there will be significant modification of this cold air if it comes down to the lower 48 since there is little snowpack and it has been much above average, particularly in the Midwest this month.

[BReb]

Here's an article from the Fairbanks paper about the cold there- they don't seem to see it as being very unusual. Funny reading about people only thinking "ok, NOW it's cold" when it hits 40 below.

http://www.news-miner.com/Stories/0,141 ... 08,00.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well I am pretty sure there will be significant modification of this cold air if it comes down to the lower 48 since there is little snowpack and it has been much above average, particularly in the Midwest this month.

well that may not be the case if a snow pack can build in front of it over the next 1-2 weeks and also if it moves fast enough. I have heard that snow fall may resume (and has resumed) across the plains. Yesterday (or the day before) a big snow storm traveled through the plains. If we see more of this continuing, then there may infact be a snowpack in 1-2 weeks in many areas that are currently snowless. You can't just look at what is going on today and then immediatly think it will be the same in 7-14 days, you need to take into account change. Also, if the arctic air is fast enough heading south, then modification would be much slower than if it was slowly jogging south.

[WindRunner]

EDIT: snow cover pictures didn't seem to work out . . . got rid of 'em.

[Air Force Met]

Alaska is colder than normal, but Canada is warmer than normal and is forecast to stay that way for the next 10 days. I just checked the forecast for Edmonton, Winnipeg and, Yellowknife, Whitehorse and Churchill and compared them to averages and they are all above average and forecast to stay that way for the most part- at least according to weather.com.

I recognize we may be in for a cold spell in the lower 48 but I'm still not wowed by the amount of cold air up north. And you'd think the Canadian forecasts way up in northern Canda would start picking up the frigid air in their long-range forecasts if truly extraordinary cold air were heading down. The forecasts show a cooling around Jan. 25-26, but nothing that remarkable and forecasts show temps quickly rising after that.

The Canadian forecasts are being based on the canadian model runs which keep a huge aleutian low over AK and SW flow over Canada...and I don' think that's acurate.

So...it depends on the model you use...they are using the Canadian like the NWS here uses the GFS.

[Air Force Met]

Here's an article from the Fairbanks paper about the cold there- they don't seem to see it as being very unusual. Funny reading about people only thinking "ok, NOW it's cold" when it hits 40 below.

http://www.news-miner.com/Stories/0,141 ... 08,00.html

I'm not talking about Fiarbanks per say...The cold air is north of there. Again...one city is within 8 degrees of their all time record low. The main point is the flow is changing to allow for more cold air to bleed over the poles and INTO alaska and NW North America...

Read the other thread...it's not so much about what is there now...which is already colder than normal (and that is a fact...20 below normal in Fairbanks and 30 below in some places)...but about the flow changing that will pull even colder air into the area.

[LarryWx]

In Alaska, that type of cold is not that uncommon. I doubt it shows any indication that there will be cold in the lower 48 anytime soon.

Actually cold pooling in Alaska...especially in the -60F range is a GREAT indication that the lower 48 is going to be getting colder in the next couple of weeks.

AFM,
I hope you're right regarding a cooldown.

Regarding the potential for a HISTORIC plunge of Arctic air into my state (Georgia) from this particular airmass, I'd prefer to see the coldest air pool in western Canada rather than Alaska based on my research of historic airmasses. It isn't impossible from AK..just much less likely for that particular airmass for a HISTORIC plunge. I'm not talking just colder...I'm talking memorable intense cold (say on par with the 20 coldest airmasses of the last 50 years) aiming for the SE US rather than the western or central U.S. More specifically, I'm talking about GA rather than TX. Parts of TX MAY have a better shot for historic cold with an AK airmass vs. western Canada, in which case it may get modified a lot by the time it gets to GA.

So, I'll be hoping to see the coldest pooling over western Canada rather than AK.

[Air Force Met]

In Alaska, that type of cold is not that uncommon. I doubt it shows any indication that there will be cold in the lower 48 anytime soon.

Actually cold pooling in Alaska...especially in the -60F range is a GREAT indication that the lower 48 is going to be getting colder in the next couple of weeks.

AFM,
I hope you're right regarding a cooldown.

Regarding the potential for a HISTORIC plunge of Arctic air into my state (Georgia) from this particular airmass, I'd prefer to see the coldest air pool in western Canada rather than Alaska based on my research of historic airmasses. It isn't impossible from AK..just much less likely for that particular airmass for a HISTORIC plunge. I'm not talking just colder...I'm talking memorable intense cold (say on par with the 20 coldest airmasses of the last 50 years) aiming for the SE US rather than the western or central U.S. More specifically, I'm talking about GA rather than TX. Parts of TX MAY have a better shot for historic cold with an AK airmass vs. western Canada, in which case it may get modified a lot by the time it gets to GA.

So, I'll be hoping to see the coldest pooling over western Canada rather than AK.

Well...one thing you gotta remember...when it moves out of AK...it goes through western Canada on the Lee side of the Rockies as it moves south. You guys get it from Central Canada as well. If it comes from central Canada...we get it as a back-door front and hardly get anything. Like the last cold shot a week or so ago...we got nada.

[LarryWx]

In Alaska, that type of cold is not that uncommon. I doubt it shows any indication that there will be cold in the lower 48 anytime soon.

Actually cold pooling in Alaska...especially in the -60F range is a GREAT indication that the lower 48 is going to be getting colder in the next couple of weeks.

AFM,
I hope you're right regarding a cooldown.

Regarding the potential for a HISTORIC plunge of Arctic air into my state (Georgia) from this particular airmass, I'd prefer to see the coldest air pool in western Canada rather than Alaska based on my research of historic airmasses. It isn't impossible from AK..just much less likely for that particular airmass for a HISTORIC plunge. I'm not talking just colder...I'm talking memorable intense cold (say on par with the 20 coldest airmasses of the last 50 years) aiming for the SE US rather than the western or central U.S. More specifically, I'm talking about GA rather than TX. Parts of TX MAY have a better shot for historic cold with an AK airmass vs. western Canada, in which case it may get modified a lot by the time it gets to GA.

So, I'll be hoping to see the coldest pooling over western Canada rather than AK.

Well...one thing you gotta remember...when it moves out of AK...it goes through western Canada on the Lee side of the Rockies as it moves south.

AFM,
Yeah, I'm aware of this. For whatever reason, it seems to me (based on my study going back 50 years) that the atmospheric conditions leading to intense AK cold (colder than western Canada at the time at 850 mb) don't as often subsequently allow a deep plunge directly into the SE U.S. vs. one who's N. American roots (coldest 850's) are in western Canada rather than AK initially.

[pawxguy]

That would make total sense in that a closer origin of the frigid air, in Canada, for example, as opposed to a AK origin, would create a more extreme effect in the states.

[LarryWx]

That would make total sense in that a closer origin of the frigid air, in Canada, for example, as opposed to a AK origin, would create a more extreme effect in the states.

pawxguy,
Whereas what you say makes sense, I don't think that is the only reason based on my study. It revealed that a good number of the AK airmasses never really make it that deeply down into the U.S. intact, if at all. I don't think this is the same thing you're saying.

[Extremeweatherguy]

That would make total sense in that a closer origin of the frigid air, in Canada, for example, as opposed to a AK origin, would create a more extreme effect in the states.

pawxguy,
Whereas what you say makes sense, I don't think that is the only reason based on my study. It revealed that a good number of the AK airmasses never really make it that deeply down into the U.S. intact, if at all. I don't think this is the same thing you're saying.

Most of Texas' coldest arctic airmasses come from Alaska. Also, the cold in Alaska now is being shown on many models to be eventually spreading out into western Canada...so canada will probably begin to see some very cold air soon.

[Tstormwatcher]

Here is a site I found to check current temps around Alaskahttp://climate.gi.alaska.edu/Wx/current.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is a site I found to check current temps around Alaskahttp://climate.gi.alaska.edu/Wx/current.html

great site.