SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific

[Jim Hughes]

P.K.,

I know they are different then Long Paddock but they are basically looking at the same data so I am somewhat surprised by their comments. I guess they are not putting to much emphasis in this recent SOI trend the past week.

The + 21.30 average during the past week is somewhat meaningless but you have to watch out for these developing trends at this time of the year. I would be more inclined to give it more weight if occurred down the road a ways in another 4-8 weeks but it still could be an important indicator.

Especially when you consider the overall absence of positve trends like this the past few years. Lets see what continues. They may be whistling a different tune next update.


Jim

I'm inclined to agree that this is starting to look more significant, Jim.

Well I am cautious about making an assumption off of a small pattern change but OTOH if you were expecting to see a change it can have some significance. Although I must admit I did not expect the positive SOI trend to really kick in until early March.


Jim

[MiamiensisWx]

Jim, does the positive SOI open the door for a La Nina?

[Jim Hughes]

Jim, does the positive SOI open the door for a La Nina?

It could not hurt it chances that's for sure. Most moderate to strong ENSO phases are usually accompanied by both SST anomalies and positive or negative SOI phases. They are not always in tune with each other all the time though.

Most people consider the last La Nina to be at it's strongest between 98-99 because this is when the cooler SST anomalies were most consistently well below average. But the cooler conditions did linger on for another 12-18 months later.

The positive SOI trend had weakened considerably during both the summer of 1999 and 2000 but it really strengthened in late 2000. The strongest positive values, for the 30 day & 90 day averages, occurred in December 2000 and not in 1998 or 1999.

So it can be misleading. OTOH many relationships have been found with the SOI averages alone.


Jim

[cycloneye]

I can see some decrease in the temps of the Atlantic anomalys especially considering how warm it was a few weeks ago off the West African coast.Also parts of the central atlantic has cooled somewhat.Let's continue to watch those anomalys in the next few weeks to see a real trend towards cooling or this is only a fluctuation.

[cycloneye]

There is some decrease in the anomaly temps in parts of the Atlantic especially off West Africa in the new weekly update where it has been very warm in recent weeks.Still for a second week in a row a warm spot lingers in the central GOM.



Still basiclly no change in the pacific anomalys with weak la nina conditions prevailing.

[windycity]

maybe its just me, but it looks as though the waters off the fl. east coast are warmer this week than a week ago. ( less dark blue) Was it just that particular sst map,or to be expected for this time of the year or...

[mike815]

hmmmm... kinda

[P.K.]

CURRENT STATUS as at 25th January 2006
Next update expected by 8th February 2006 (two weeks after this update).

| Summary | In Brief | Details |

Summary: A cooling Pacific, with some characteristics of a La Niña.

The overall ENSO pattern remains neutral, although with some features of a weak La Niña. This is particularly evident in the cold subsurface waters of the east Pacific, the reduced cloudiness in the central Pacific and the stronger than average Trade Winds in the western Pacific. On the other hand, the SOI remains neutral and sea surface temperatures, though cooler than normal, are not at La Niña levels.

There is a chance that with further cooling, the pattern might develop into a La Niña for a brief period. Historically, the formation of a long-lasting La Niña event at this time of year is extremely rare. Similarly, computer model predictions of ocean temperatures indicate warming after February and ENSO neutral conditions by the middle of 2006.

More information at: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[cycloneye]

CURRENT STATUS as at 25th January 2006
Next update expected by 8th February 2006 (two weeks after this update).

| Summary | In Brief | Details |

Summary: A cooling Pacific, with some characteristics of a La Niña.

The overall ENSO pattern remains neutral, although with some features of a weak La Niña. This is particularly evident in the cold subsurface waters of the east Pacific, the reduced cloudiness in the central Pacific and the stronger than average Trade Winds in the western Pacific. On the other hand, the SOI remains neutral and sea surface temperatures, though cooler than normal, are not at La Niña levels.

There is a chance that with further cooling, the pattern might develop into a La Niña for a brief period. Historically, the formation of a long-lasting La Niña event at this time of year is extremely rare. Similarly, computer model predictions of ocean temperatures indicate warming after February and ENSO neutral conditions by the middle of 2006.

More information at: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

The Aussies are almost in line with Climate Prediction Centers update two weeks ago maybe a tad more neutral than CPC.

[cycloneye]

maybe its just me, but it looks as though the waters off the fl. east coast are warmer this week than a week ago. ( less dark blue) Was it just that particular sst map,or to be expected for this time of the year or...

Fluctuations occur meaning more warmer waters or more cooler waters in a weeks time.What we have to watch is for long time trends to warmer anomalies or a trend to coler ones and there are 5 months before hurricane season starts to see how the Atlantic sstas will flip.

[cycloneye]

Interesting Atlantic loop of ssts.



Sure la nina is now in the Pacific with those kind of anomalies of -1.5c at el nino 3 region.Let's see in the comming weeks how those anomalies will be.

[cycloneye]

Bumping for those who haven't seen the latest sst grapgic for the Atlantic and the ssta's for the Pacific.Still the weak la nina is taking hold.

[cycloneye]

The weak La Nina still holds on in the Pacific although a slight warm fluctuation is occuring at el nino 1-2 area.El nino 3-4 areas are cool so that is why La Nina still is there.

In the Atlantic side the MDR area is relativly warm however some pockets of cool anomalys show up in the subtropical Central Atlantic and in the Western Atlantic.

Let's keep watching the anomalys in both basins to see as the 2006 season gets closer how they will be.

[cycloneye]

There is some decrease in the anomaly temps in parts of the Atlantic especially off West Africa in the new weekly update where it has been very warm in recent weeks.Still for a third week in a row a warm spot lingers in the central GOM.Also the MDR area has stayed near average to warm anomalys.Let's continue to watch how the anomalys do in the next 3 months and then we will have a much better idea about how warm or not the Atlantic will be when hurricane season 2006 arrives.



Still basiclly no change in the pacific anomalys with weak la nina conditions prevailing although a little warmer anomalys are showing up at el nino 1-2 area.

[wxman57]

I made an animation of the SST anomolies from Oct 2004 to present. I slowed down the animation as we get into the fall of 2005 and even more so closer to present. Note the dramatic cooling in the Pacific in recent months. Images are 1 week apart:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/sstanim.gif

Oh, it's a 14MB file so it's not going to load very quickly on dial-up (if anyone still uses dial-up these days). I did make a shorter version that just goes back a few months here:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/sstanim2.gif

Just looking at the past 3-5 weeks, SST anomolies in the tropical Atlantic are way down, closer to normal.

[DrStorm]

Found this interesting statistic on Nino and Nina, maybe common knowledge...

Bove et al. (1998) analyzed all continental U.S. landfalling hurricanes and intense hurricanes of this century by the concurrent phase of ENSO.

They found that the probability of at least two hurricanes striking the U.S. is:
28% during El Niño years compared with
48% during neutral years and
66% during La Niña years.

Likewise, the probabilities for at least one intense hurricane striking are
23%, 58% and 63%
for El Niño, neutral and La Niña years, respectively.

[cycloneye]

You can see without difficulty how La Nina is in the Pacific by those blue colors.El nino 3 and 4 areas are covered by La Nina cool anomalys of between +1.0c and +1.5c.

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

This is the latest updated graphic of the anomalys in the Atlantic and Pacific.Look how the MDR area between West Africa and the Lesser Antilles is a little above average in the anomaly temps.Also the GOM looks warm in the anomalys.On the flip side parts of the western and central atlantic are somewhat below average.

[MiamiensisWx]

The La Nina seems to have strengthened as well!