Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[gboudx]

If you go to the Fairbanks NWS website, some parts of AK are expecting highs of -30 to -40 within the next few days. There's no way I could live up there. That's insane cold.

[Portastorm]

Can y'all post the ensembles that suggest this pattern change? I see that the 18z long-range GFS is advertising an outbreak, but the more evidence the easier to buy into it.

Check out this link for the 500 mb pattern:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/ta ... 12412.html

[Sean in New Orleans]

There is no doubt in my mind that this cold spell will be colder than those in early December. This will be the coldest spell of the Winter, followed by more cold spells for a couple of weeks. I see no reason why we won't see sub-zero temps all the way down to Northern Oklahoma and Northern Arkansas. It's building strong and it's going to get very cold before it warms much again. The pattern will slowly become evident and set up in the next week, IMO.

[jkt21787]

Looking at the teleconnections, I was initially encouraged (all of these the forecasts out to ~14 days) by -NAO and -AO, but highly discouraged over the -PNA and especially the +EPO which have ruined many a predicted cold air outbreaks. +EPO, though brutally cold air can be in the source regions, can keep that cold air bottled up there. However, I was encouraged to see forecasts Today from both CDC and NCEP indicating both a +PNA and -EPO developing as Feb moves on. Thus, the general teleconnection pattern is coming together to favor a return to below normal temperatures for much of the US East of the Rockies.

Still, questions remain about how cold we will get, and the establishment of a strong blocking mechanism which would prolong the cold by locking it into place. This is very questionable as well, even moreso. Also, will the STJ get active? This would be important to those who would want more than just colder weather.

So, everyone should relax for a while. Still looking at sometime in Feb, perhaps the first, maybe more likely the second, week for all of this to really get going. March is also looking like a potentially cold month (relative to normal at least).

Stay tuned...

[boca]

I wonder if Florida will cool down from this upcoming event in Feb.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I wonder if Florida will cool down from this upcoming event in Feb.

if JB is right, then the answer is yes.

[jasons2k]

I think it's pretty clear east of the MS gets it, but I still think coming down the plains/front range doesn't appear likely yet.

[Extremeweatherguy]

well Frank B. on Channel 12 just said that it looks like most of the cold air would go east of Texas...but we still have quite a few days left to watch so I think he will be 100% wrong. I have a gut feeling that we will think it is going east when we go to bed one night and wake up the next morning to 19 degrees, stiff wind and snow blasting Houston. lol.

[Tyler]

I think it's pretty clear east of the MS gets it, but I still think coming down the plains/front range doesn't appear likely yet.

The source of the cold air is from Alaska. I've never seen cold air go from Alaska, down western Canada, and then skip Texas to the east. If the source was coming from Central Canada, that would be a different story. Its either coming south, or not coming at all. The latest GFS and its ensembles indicate that the cold air will most likely slide south through Texas, then east.

[Tyler]

well Frank B. on Channel 12 just said that it looks like most of the cold air would go east of Texas...but we still have quite a few days left to watch so I think he will be 100% wrong. I have a gut feeling that we will think it is going east when we go to bed one night and wake up the next morning to 19 degrees, stiff wind and snow blasting Houston. lol.

I saw that as well, and I have no idea what the heck he was talking about...

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think it's pretty clear east of the MS gets it, but I still think coming down the plains/front range doesn't appear likely yet.

The source of the cold air is from Alaska. I've never seen cold air go from Alaska, down western Canada, and then skip Texas to the east. If the source was coming from Central Canada, that would be a different story. Its either coming south, or not coming at all. The latest GFS and its ensembles indicate that the cold air will most likely slide south through Texas, then east.

I completely agree. The cold outbreaks that skip Texas to the east usually originate in central Canada...not Alaska and Western Canada.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB morning comments:

-Evoloution of the pattern has him believing that the worst of the winter still lays ahead for the US.

-He feels that most of the nation will be cold between Feb. 5th and 15th.

-He thinks that deep south Texas and southern Florida citrus areas will see a freeze during that period.

-interesting southern branch systems will be setting up.

-Analogs now showing up include Feb. 1978, Jan./Feb. 1980, and late Jan. 1958.

BTW I did some research, and this is what I found concerning those years:

1978: It snowed once in January and there was an ice storm in late January.

1980: 1.4" snowfall in early February.

1958: There was a trace of snow in February.

***Each one of those three winters produced wintery weather here in Houston!***

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

JB morning comments:

-Evoloution of the pattern has him believing that the worst of the winter still lays ahead for the US.

-He feels that most of the nation will be cold between Feb. 5th and 15th.

-He thinks that deep south Texas and southern Florida citrus areas will see a freeze during that period.

-interesting southern branch systems will be setting up.

-Analogs now showing up include Feb. 1978, Jan./Feb. 1980, and late Jan. 1958.

BTW I did some research, and this is what I found concerning those years:

1978: It snowed once in January and there was an ice storm in late January.

1980: 1.4" snowfall in early February.

1958: There was a trace of snow in February.

***Each one of those three winters produced wintery weather here in Houston!***

It looks like Lucy, oh I mean JB, is setting up that football again for us.

When I feel the cold, I'll believe it. But it is true February can bring it's coldest punch to Texas and elsewhere in the south. We shall see...........

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Just a quick look at the climate data for Corpus during those analog years posted. We didn't have any serious frezzing weather during those months. So I think JB might be stretchig it just a tad to declare a freeze threat for South Texas at this point but then again what do I know?

[boca]

I know how JB predictions are for hurricanes, how is he on cold weather events.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I know how JB predictions are for hurricanes, how is he on cold weather events.

I guess he's like any other Met. He hits some dead on and misses others by a mile. Recently he nailed the snow storm that hit South Texas on Christmas 2004 and he nailed that one two weeks before the event. But he blew the cold weather pretty much nationwide that he thought was going to hit the south as well as much of the nation around Christmas and New Years in 2005.

[jasons2k]

I think it's pretty clear east of the MS gets it, but I still think coming down the plains/front range doesn't appear likely yet.

The source of the cold air is from Alaska. I've never seen cold air go from Alaska, down western Canada, and then skip Texas to the east. If the source was coming from Central Canada, that would be a different story. Its either coming south, or not coming at all. The latest GFS and its ensembles indicate that the cold air will most likely slide south through Texas, then east.

I completely agree. The cold outbreaks that skip Texas to the east usually originate in central Canada...not Alaska and Western Canada.

We'll see. This is what, the 3rd or 4th time this year JB said TX Citrus was in danger? And Frank Billingsly on Channel 2, altho not my favorite Met., is no idiot either.

[Johnny]

Actually we were supposed to be getting below normal cold temps by Jan 17th, then by the 26 and then by the 1st and now JB says the colderst temps. will be between the 5th and 15th of February. With this said, yes...the cold air has been getting pushed back and back. I'm not saying that it's not gonna come on down but the fact that it has been delayed it quite obvious. Actually right before Christmas their were mentions of an outbreak around New Years and it has been getting pushed back ever since. I hardly care about the cold. What I want to see verify is the stormier pattern.

[txwatcher91]

Looking at computer models, everthing is setting up perfect for some very cold air to come into the US soon. Temps in yukon,ak are at -54F right now, and -46 in fairbanks,ak.Looking at current computer models, the Canadian shows several high pressures located near the North Pole, which is pumping the air from the North Pole into Alaska and Canada.
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... hdf_50.gif
Seven day Euro shows this with lots of purples in Alaska. Go to ECMWF Surface/500MB Forecasts for North America about half way down and click on Day 7.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/models.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

Actually we were supposed to be getting below normal cold temps by Jan 17th, then by the 26 and then by the 1st and now JB says the colderst temps. will be between the 5th and 15th of February. With this said, yes...the cold air has been getting pushed back and back. I'm not saying that it's not gonna come on down but the fact that it has been delayed it quite obvious. Actually right before Christmas their were mentions of an outbreak around New Years and it has been getting pushed back ever since. I hardly care about the cold. What I want to see verify is the stormier pattern.

Yeah but during all those other threats, the air in Alaska and Canada was nowhere near as cold as it is now, and the overall pattern was not becoming as prime as it is now. This time all the factors are slowly coming together to make it more likely than not that we'll get some serious cold in February.