Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think it's pretty clear east of the MS gets it, but I still think coming down the plains/front range doesn't appear likely yet.

The source of the cold air is from Alaska. I've never seen cold air go from Alaska, down western Canada, and then skip Texas to the east. If the source was coming from Central Canada, that would be a different story. Its either coming south, or not coming at all. The latest GFS and its ensembles indicate that the cold air will most likely slide south through Texas, then east.

I completely agree. The cold outbreaks that skip Texas to the east usually originate in central Canada...not Alaska and Western Canada.

We'll see. This is what, the 3rd or 4th time this year JB said TX Citrus was in danger? And Frank Billingsly on Channel 2, altho not my favorite Met., is no idiot either.

no he is no idiot. I enjoyed wathcing him during Rita and he USUALLY is good to watch when cold snaps are coming this way...but his statements last night about the cold air heading east seem to have been made a little too early.

[Extremeweatherguy]

BTW...it looks like most models now are aiming toward cold coming and coming hard. There is a good agreement. The GFS is also in agreement and has a first shot of cold air pushing in on the 5th and reaching it's peak on the 7th, and then it has another shot primed to come in by mid month (which may be stronger). With the first system the GFS does currently have a widespread snowstorm in TX (reaching all the way to Houston); but that kind of situation is still highly debatable.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

BTW...it looks like most models now are aiming toward cold coming and coming hard. There is a good agreement. The GFS is also in agreement and has a first shot of cold air pushing in on the 5th and reaching it's peak on the 7th, and then it has another shot primed to come in by mid month (which may be stronger). With the first system the GFS does currently have a widespread snowstorm in TX (reaching all the way to Houston); but that kind of situation is still highly debatable.

TxDot better get on the phone with Buffalo, NY to see if we can borrow some snowplows.

[Portastorm]

Dang .... someone wake up Jeff and Air Force Met! We need expert opinions on the latest developments.

[gboudx]

Dang .... someone wake up Jeff and Air Force Met! We need expert opinions on the latest developments.

A past response from AFM regarding the long-range GFS model forecasts involved throwing chicken bones on the floor. Maybe he's in to voodoo or something.

But seriously, I respect both of those guys opinions on forecasts and hope they take some time to educate this weather idiot.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Dang .... someone wake up Jeff and Air Force Met! We need expert opinions on the latest developments.

I agree. Where are our resident experts here?

[Portastorm]

OK everyone ... don't laugh ... but I recently learned that some folks have seen (this past weekend) snow geese in SE Colorado and the Texas panhandle flying to the southeast and that these type of events usually predate an arctic outbreak by about 10 days.

I'm not one to buy into these sorts of things, but the person who reported this observation to a private industry met I know, was very serious. Heck, who knows? But I thought it was interesting enough to tell you all.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

OK everyone ... don't laugh ... but I recently learned that some folks have seen (this past weekend) snow geese in SE Colorado and the Texas panhandle flying to the southeast and that these type of events usually predate an arctic outbreak by about 10 days.

I'm not one to buy into these sorts of things, but the person who reported this observation to a private industry met I know, was very serious. Heck, who knows? But I thought it was interesting enough to tell you all.

Sometimes nature is a better at predicting things than man. Case in point down here with the mesquite trees. You'd think with the warmer than average late Dec and Jan the tree would already be blooming with new growth. They are stilll dormant.

[vbhoutex]

OK everyone ... don't laugh ... but I recently learned that some folks have seen (this past weekend) snow geese in SE Colorado and the Texas panhandle flying to the southeast and that these type of events usually predate an arctic outbreak by about 10 days.

I'm not one to buy into these sorts of things, but the person who reported this observation to a private industry met I know, was very serious. Heck, who knows? But I thought it was interesting enough to tell you all.

Nothing to laugh about here. It happens almost everytime we have a "blue norther" here in Houston. When I didn't pay as much attention to the weather as I do now(many eons ago)that is one thing I watched for or noticed when we had cold weather coming.

[Air Force Met]

Dang .... someone wake up Jeff and Air Force Met! We need expert opinions on the latest developments.

I agree. Where are our resident experts here?

Sorry guys....real world events have kept me off the boards for a while and will continue to do so for a little while longer. I still expect the arctic air...but other military events have kept me from my primary military job as of late.

Will post when I can.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow. looks like all the signs are pointing towards COLD. I am getting a bad feeling about this February and what it may bring. My big fear too is that a few days before the cold gets here that it warms up to record highs and everybody begins thinking spring is here and then IT HITS! I could just see it going from 85 and humid one day to 30 and snowy the next and everybody freaking out. Everybody would begin getting sick too, and the plants and animals would be under serious stress. With all these signs I have no reason to believe that it won't happen. If you look back at all Houston's past weather history, you will find that strings of warm winters are not common...and since the mid 90s (really though 1989) this city has not seen any true arctic cold snaps (where it gets below 32 for a high and below 20 for a low; usually with wintry weather)...I think nature is going to get us back sooner or later...probably this February.

[Tyler]

Wow. looks like all the signs are pointing towards COLD. I am getting a bad feeling about this February and what it may bring. My big fear too is that a few days before the cold gets here that it warms up to record highs and everybody begins thinking spring is here and then IT HITS! I could just see it going from 85 and humid one day to 30 and snowy the next and everybody freaking out. Everybody would begin getting sick too, and the plants and animals would be under serious stress. With all these signs I have no reason to believe that it won't happen. If you look back at all Houston's past weather history, you will find that strings of warm winters are not common...and since the mid 90s (really though 1989) this city has not seen any true arctic cold snaps (where it gets below 32 for a high and below 20 for a low; usually with wintry weather)...I think nature is going to get us back sooner or later...probably this February.

Looks like we will warm up pretty good the first few days of February. Fun fact: Feb 1989 started off very warm, with a record high of 82 on the 1st. 3 days later, Houston went below freezing on the 4th, and stayed there for the next 3 days!! I am NOT saying we will see something like that, however, what I am trying to say is (as you said Extremeweatherguy) don't be fooled if it warms up pretty good and looks like Spring has locked, a couple of day later, we could be in the icebox. I'm liking the signs on the models, which are pointing to a much colder pattern in February. Lets hope this comes to pass!

[Tyler]

Dang .... someone wake up Jeff and Air Force Met! We need expert opinions on the latest developments.

I agree. Where are our resident experts here?

Sorry guys....real world events have kept me off the boards for a while and will continue to do so for a little while longer. I still expect the arctic air...but other military events have kept me from my primary military job as of late.

Will post when I can.

Hey, take your time man. I enjoy your insight and whenever you may have some time to spare, let us know your thoughts!

[PTrackerLA]

The first couple of days in February of 1996 brought very cold temperatures as low as 16 degrees around here. However, January of that year was cold as well with mutiple low 20's throughout the month. Just wonder if the pattern will shift that much considering how warm it has been. Until then normal to above normal temps will continue around here for at least another week.

[PTrackerLA]

For what it's worth, JB says that the cold will dominate much of the nation east of the Rockies Feb. 5-15. He seems to believe that winter's worst for the US still lies ahead of us and he's still worried about a freeze in the citrus areas of Texas and Florida. We'll see what happens!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The first couple of days in February of 1996 brought very cold temperatures as low as 16 degrees around here. However, January of that year was cold as well with mutiple low 20's throughout the month. Just wonder if the pattern will shift that much considering how warm it has been. Until then normal to above normal temps will continue around here for at least another week.

well in Jan. 1989 (like Tyler said) it was incredibly warm here in Houston, but then in early February there was a drastic change and we had a 3-day long freeze (including a trace of snow)! I assume the situation would have been similar for LA. Things can change rapidly this time of year. Also, looks back in History and you will see that it does not have to be cold in January for it to be cold in February. Just think...when it was cold early this last December, who thought that January would be so warm? All the models are coming into agreement as well...the cold IS coming...the question really is...How cold will it be and where will the brunt of the cold be located?

[southerngale]

OK everyone ... don't laugh ... but I recently learned that some folks have seen (this past weekend) snow geese in SE Colorado and the Texas panhandle flying to the southeast and that these type of events usually predate an arctic outbreak by about 10 days.

I'm not one to buy into these sorts of things, but the person who reported this observation to a private industry met I know, was very serious. Heck, who knows? But I thought it was interesting enough to tell you all.

Oh dang, you said don't laugh. Well, I can't take it back now.

J/K of course. I posted this on December 29th, which is a similar sign to what you're talking about:

Well, in the newspaper here several weeks ago....they said the horses in the area have thicker coats than usual, which is a sign of a harsher winter.

The last few threats of an Arctic break down here went *poof* so I figured those poor horses grew a thicker coat for nothing - perhaps there is something to these theories. Wouldn't that be something?

[Portastorm]

I can't help but think the Creator knew what He was doing when he made all of these critters.

They're probably more accurate than any computer model!

[richtrav]

Yeah we are overdue for a really hard advective freeze in Central Texas, our last true one was in Dec 1990, when the high stayed in the mid-20s all day. We've had wimpier versions, most notably in 1996, but even then there were about 5 freezes in the '80s that would have put 1996 to shame. Of course the law of averages does NOT say that just because we're historically overdue for a bad cold spell makes it more likely that another one is right around the corner.

[Extremeweatherguy]

May be the horses coat is continuing to get thicker because they decided to start early knowing how cold Feb. will be. They need two months of thickness to be prepared for what's coming.