Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[jeff]

I have not looked at much data today as I have been working hard on post Katrina and Rita reports or should I say mainly Katrina. Tomorrow I will take a hard look at the models, but my main concern right now is the event slated for Saturday. PWS of 1.6 to 1.8 inches with potent dynamics in a SW flow aloft coupled with a 40kt low level jet are screaming a heavy rainfall event. Dry grounds do nothing in an urban landscape in terms of run-off potential and rapid response of our urban bayous (Dec 14th, 2005).

I did note the GFS showing a good shot of cold air which it has been hinting of around the 5th off and on now for a week or so. I have not looked at the ensembles today to see what they are offering, but the last run I did see which I think was yesterday showed a fairly good ridge, but the position of the downstream trough was a little too far east for big cold in TX.

Some may want to check out the CPC medium disc. from this afternoon, they had a very good and valid disc. today.

[jasons2k]

OK everyone ... don't laugh ... but I recently learned that some folks have seen (this past weekend) snow geese in SE Colorado and the Texas panhandle flying to the southeast and that these type of events usually predate an arctic outbreak by about 10 days.

I'm not one to buy into these sorts of things, but the person who reported this observation to a private industry met I know, was very serious. Heck, who knows? But I thought it was interesting enough to tell you all.

Sometimes nature is a better at predicting things than man. Case in point down here with the mesquite trees. You'd think with the warmer than average late Dec and Jan the tree would already be blooming with new growth. They are stilll dormant.

There is an old saying that Spring (last freeze) isn't here until the mesquite trees bloom. I've never seen them fail the theory since I moved to Texas in 1988.

[Tyler]

I have not looked at much data today as I have been working hard on post Katrina and Rita reports or should I say mainly Katrina. Tomorrow I will take a hard look at the models, but my main concern right now is the event slated for Saturday. PWS of 1.6 to 1.8 inches with potent dynamics in a SW flow aloft coupled with a 40kt low level jet are screaming a heavy rainfall event. Dry grounds do nothing in an urban landscape in terms of run-off potential and rapid response of our urban bayous (Dec 14th, 2005).

I did note the GFS showing a good shot of cold air which it has been hinting of around the 5th off and on now for a week or so. I have not looked at the ensembles today to see what they are offering, but the last run I did see which I think was yesterday showed a fairly good ridge, but the position of the downstream trough was a little too far east for big cold in TX.

Some may want to check out the CPC medium disc. from this afternoon, they had a very good and valid disc. today.

Thanks for your thoughts Jeff! This weekend looks like a definite heavy rainfall event for sure. We'll need to watch this.

[PTrackerLA]

We could still use the rain around here. Last year was one of our all time driest years and we're already running below average for January. Last spring became so dry and I hope we don't have the same thing happen this year.

[ETXHAMXYL]

Talking about Animals and future cold spells? My cat started shedding some right after Christmas, but I noticed this week her fur is far more thicker around her neck than when we first had the cold in Dec. Also have noticed more birds in numbers feeding every evening, much more than their normal routine. So who knows? The squirrels too have been very active in the last week. Everything seems to be on a feeding frenzy.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Once again the latest from JB this evening:

-He is more convinced than ever that winter is no where near over and that many of us will be getting very cold.

-He says that if people expect central Canada to get cold before the major blast, that it will not happen, instead he says that northern Canada and Alaska will cool and then that air will be delivered quickly into the states.

-He says that most of the U.S.A's coldest, snowiest periods were never proceeded by stories of cold in southern or central Canada. Most cold records in the U.S. are never proceeded by records in Canada.

-He pretty much says (in a series of paragraphs) that the pattern is becoming perfect for extreme nationwide cold.

-He says to expect models to be in la-la land (all over the place) over the next 2 weeks.

-He still targets Feb. 5th and 15th (and may be beyond) as the key period for cold.

[txwatcher91]

The first couple of days in February of 1996 brought very cold temperatures as low as 16 degrees around here. However, January of that year was cold as well with mutiple low 20's throughout the month. Just wonder if the pattern will shift that much considering how warm it has been. Until then normal to above normal temps will continue around here for at least another week.

well in Jan. 1989 (like Tyler said) it was incredibly warm here in Houston, but then in early February there was a drastic change and we had a 3-day long freeze (including a trace of snow)! I assume the situation would have been similar for LA. Things can change rapidly this time of year. Also, looks back in History and you will see that it does not have to be cold in January for it to be cold in February. Just think...when it was cold early this last December, who thought that January would be so warm? All the models are coming into agreement as well...the cold IS coming...the question really is...How cold will it be and where will the brunt of the cold be located?

Which Tyler? My name is Tyler also.
Anyways, looking at current computer models,arctic air from Siberia and the North Pole will continue to build in Alaska. I think that the cold air should start around Feb. 5th and continue with reinforcements through at least Feb. 30th, if not longer. The high pressures over Siberia and the North Pole will continue to pump the cold air into Alaska, and this cold air will be released in 'waves', allowing the cold air to build again in Alaska. We could get 3-4 wasves of cold air, with each being colder than the last.

[txwatcher91]

This is from Morehead City,NC about the cooler wetaher coming.

SIGNALS IN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A
CHANGE BACK TO A NEGATIVE NAO BEYOND DAY 8 WHICH WOULD MEAN A
RETURN TO NORMAL WINTER TEMPERATURES IF TRUE.

[gboudx]

I think that the cold air should start around Feb. 5th and continue with reinforcements through at least Feb. 30th, if not longer.

Through Feb 30th? Now that would really be something.

[txwatcher91]

I think that the cold air should start around Feb. 5th and continue with reinforcements through at least Feb. 30th, if not longer.

Through Feb 30th? Now that would really be something.

It could easily last that long as the cold air will continue flowing into Alaska, and then into the US. This pattern might last for some time.

[Rieyeuxs]

If the cold lasts until Feb. 30th, I believe that the cold will be the last thing on my mind. At that point, weather will be the least of my problems...

[CajunMama]

Rieyeauxs...i had to read and reread your post before i got it! I was like huh? what? then DING DING DING i got it! Feb. 30!

[Brent]

If the cold lasts until Feb. 30th, I believe that the cold will be the last thing on my mind. At that point, weather will be the least of my problems...

Yes...

[Brent]

I think that the cold air should start around Feb. 5th and continue with reinforcements through at least Feb. 30th, if not longer.

Through Feb 30th? Now that would really be something.

It could easily last that long as the cold air will continue flowing into Alaska, and then into the US. This pattern might last for some time.

Hint: February is the shortest month of the year.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think that the cold air should start around Feb. 5th and continue with reinforcements through at least Feb. 30th, if not longer.

Through Feb 30th? Now that would really be something.

It could easily last that long as the cold air will continue flowing into Alaska, and then into the US. This pattern might last for some time.

Hint: February is the shortest month of the year.

Yeah guys Feb. only has 28 days!

[Extremeweatherguy]

latest runs of the Euro have extreme cold (colder than it has been) setting into all of canada within a week.

[txwatcher91]

The first couple of days in February of 1996 brought very cold temperatures as low as 16 degrees around here. However, January of that year was cold as well with mutiple low 20's throughout the month. Just wonder if the pattern will shift that much considering how warm it has been. Until then normal to above normal temps will continue around here for at least another week.

well in Jan. 1989 (like Tyler said) it was incredibly warm here in Houston, but then in early February there was a drastic change and we had a 3-day long freeze (including a trace of snow)! I assume the situation would have been similar for LA. Things can change rapidly this time of year. Also, looks back in History and you will see that it does not have to be cold in January for it to be cold in February. Just think...when it was cold early this last December, who thought that January would be so warm? All the models are coming into agreement as well...the cold IS coming...the question really is...How cold will it be and where will the brunt of the cold be located?

Which Tyler? My name is Tyler also.
Anyways, looking at current computer models,arctic air from Siberia and the North Pole will continue to build in Alaska. I think that the cold air should start around Feb. 5th and continue with reinforcements through at least Feb. 28th, if not longer. The high pressures over Siberia and the North Pole will continue to pump the cold air into Alaska, and this cold air will be released in 'waves', allowing the cold air to build again in Alaska. We could get 3-4 wasves of cold air, with each being colder than the last.

7 day Euro is getting REALLY cold in Canada and Alaska.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/models.html

[Portastorm]

I saw the European and yes it looks MIGHTY COLD for Canada ... but until we get a pronounced jet to usher the air south, it's a moot point.

The NCEP ensembles continue to show this happening but now appear to back off the delivery of arctic air into much of the continental US until after Feb. 5th. As David Tolleris of WxRisk.Com has pointed out in other forums, that's a bad sign when the models back off on something continually ... bad in the sense that if you want it to happen, when a model backs a scenario up continually ... it may eventually back the entire scenario off the run!

The GFS operational runs for 0z and 6z today do show arctic air impacting Texas and the southern Plains but also back it off a few days until around Feb. 8-9. Yesterday these same runs showed a winter storm impacting the same areas about Feb. 5-6th. Now, it appears a significant rain event would be the case based on today's runs.

I don't know. I guess we're now in the "waffle game" as regards to what may eventually happen.

[gboudx]

Briefly back to the animal topic, on my way into work this morning I saw some snow geese flying South. Some birds normally fly South this time of year, so I don't really buy into it meaning anything more than that. As always, we'll see.

[jasons2k]

I saw the European and yes it looks MIGHTY COLD for Canada ... but until we get a pronounced jet to usher the air south, it's a moot point.

The NCEP ensembles continue to show this happening but now appear to back off the delivery of arctic air into much of the continental US until after Feb. 5th. As David Tolleris of WxRisk.Com has pointed out in other forums, that's a bad sign when the models back off on something continually ... bad in the sense that if you want it to happen, when a model backs a scenario up continually ... it may eventually back the entire scenario off the run!

The GFS operational runs for 0z and 6z today do show arctic air impacting Texas and the southern Plains but also back it off a few days until around Feb. 8-9. Yesterday these same runs showed a winter storm impacting the same areas about Feb. 5-6th. Now, it appears a significant rain event would be the case based on today's runs.

I don't know. I guess we're now in the "waffle game" as regards to what may eventually happen.

Hey Portastorm, excellent points indeed.

It seems like the model dance all winter has been a broken record. I do believe at some point some of the cold air will have to be discharged, but until I see something more consistent/definite, I'm sticking to my guns that it will be mostly east of the southern plains/TX.