Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[gboudx]

I could go for a signifcant rain event. Looks like some good rain coming this weekend. It needs to keep on coming.

[Johnny]

but until I see something more consistent/definite, I'm sticking to my guns that it will be mostly east of the southern plains/TX.

My words exactly jschlitz.

[Extremeweatherguy]

but until I see something more consistent/definite, I'm sticking to my guns that it will be mostly east of the southern plains/TX.

My words exactly jschlitz.

why do you assume that it would go east? When cold gathers in Alaska it usually is discharged down the plains and not to the east of us.

[fwbbreeze]

but until I see something more consistent/definite, I'm sticking to my guns that it will be mostly east of the southern plains/TX.

My words exactly jschlitz.

why do you assume that it would go east? When cold gathers in Alaska it usually is discharged down the plains and not to the east of us.

is there such a thing as winter weather -removed-??? I kid I kid

fwbbreeze

[Portastorm]

but until I see something more consistent/definite, I'm sticking to my guns that it will be mostly east of the southern plains/TX.

My words exactly jschlitz.

why do you assume that it would go east? When cold gathers in Alaska it usually is discharged down the plains and not to the east of us.

Extreme, normally you would be correct but this winter the Pacific jet has been Jerome Bettis-like ... big and strong and as long as that jet is blasting west to east and more zonally, the arctic air will stay bottled up.

Now, it's all going to depend on where the trough in the east sets up shop and just how much ridging we can get off the West Coast. That will dictate where this air discharges.

[Johnny]

When cold gathers in Alaska it usually is discharged down the plains and not to the east of us.


I don't think USUALLY is the right word to use. I think your sentence should be re-phrased to read something like this.

The source region for historic arctic outbreaks in Texas is Alaska.

I haven't looked but I'm sure their are many of times when very cold air has built up in Alaska, pushed southward into the CONUS, shot to the southeast and hardly even effected us here in Texas. Just because cold air is currently up in Alaska doesn't mean that it's going to push straight south into Texas. Yes, historically speaking Alaska is usually our source region when it comes to arctic outbreaks and it will be neat to see how this plays out. I just wouldn't get your hopes up just yet, that's for sure.

[jasons2k]

but until I see something more consistent/definite, I'm sticking to my guns that it will be mostly east of the southern plains/TX.

My words exactly jschlitz.

why do you assume that it would go east? When cold gathers in Alaska it usually is discharged down the plains and not to the east of us.

Extreme, normally you would be correct but this winter the Pacific jet has been Jerome Bettis-like ... big and strong and as long as that jet is blasting west to east and more zonally, the arctic air will stay bottled up.

Now, it's all going to depend on where the trough in the east sets up shop and just how much ridging we can get off the West Coast. That will dictate where this air discharges.

You're both right, how's that

Seriously....normally, when there is this kind of cold in AK I am very concerned. Often, when cold like this builds in AK, yes it does come down the plains. But not all the time. And I wouldn't even say usually. Many times it moves to the east towards Hudson Bay.

I can't and won't make a prediction based on one factor or one pre-cursor for an acrtic outbreak. That's like saying because it's humid it's going to rain. It takes several factors for an artctic outbreak in Texas.

IMO, here are the factors what would support an outbreak in TX without getting too technical:

- the near record cold in Alaska, no matter how you cut it, this airmass means business
- historically, the first part of February is the prime time for one
- the sheer weight of the airmass *might* send a shallow sliver of it much further south than the models will predict

And here are my reasons that argue against an outbreak:

- the pattern we are in is stubborn. it is changing down the line, but by the time it gets its act together it might be spring already
- the blocking pattern showing up on the models isn't a classic TX setup; it looks like the Great Lakes to the NE is going to get hammered
- for the most part, the models are showing 3 possible scenarios in their setup: 1) persistent zonal flow with almost a split-flow off the west coast, 2) a block over the NE US, or 3) ridge in the west with a deep trough in the east (but too far east IMO). None of the 3 are a good setup for a discharge of arctic air straight down the plains. Now if there was a classic Omega block centered over the plains OR a meriodonal upper flow down the front range, then I would be worried, but that's not the case.
- I don't trust the models this far out to begin with; they are guilty of the same song & dance, time after time

At this point, I think the cons outweigh the pros for anything dramatic or extreme. I don't plan to change my mind until the models show something different on a consistent, regular basis. This hopping all over the map isn't enough to convince me I need snowshoes any time soon.

Hope that explains my reasons. Cheers.

[jasons2k]

When cold gathers in Alaska it usually is discharged down the plains and not to the east of us.


I don't think USUALLY is the right word to use. I think your sentence should be re-phrased to read something like this.

The source region for historic arctic outbreaks in Texas is Alaska.

I haven't looked but I'm sure their are many of times when very cold air has built up in Alaska, pushed southward into the CONUS, shot to the southeast and hardly even effected us here in Texas. Just because cold air is currently up in Alaska doesn't mean that it's going to push straight south into Texas. Yes, historically speaking Alaska is usually our source region when it comes to arctic outbreaks and it will be neat to see how this plays out. I just wouldn't get your hopes up just yet, that's for sure.

Agreed. 100%.

[Tyler]

but until I see something more consistent/definite, I'm sticking to my guns that it will be mostly east of the southern plains/TX.

My words exactly jschlitz.

I don't understand, ensembles show the cold air making down to Texas, so what are you not seeing? They have been consistent on building a good +PNA ridge in the west and trough in the east, diving cold air southward toward Texas. Perhaps your looking at something else.

[jasons2k]

but until I see something more consistent/definite, I'm sticking to my guns that it will be mostly east of the southern plains/TX.

My words exactly jschlitz.

I don't understand, ensembles show the cold air making down to Texas, so what are you not seeing? They have been consistent on building a good +PNA ridge in the west and trough in the east, diving cold air southward toward Texas. Perhaps your looking at something else.

I wouldn't say they are consistent. I've seen them waffle between 3 different scenarios just in the past few days. To answer your question, I pasted my reply from this above:

for the most part, the models are showing 3 possible scenarios in their setup: 1) persistent zonal flow with almost a split-flow off the west coast, 2) a block over the NE US, or 3) ridge in the west with a deep trough in the east (but too far east IMO). None of the 3 are a good setup for a discharge of arctic air straight down the plains. Now if there was a classic Omega block centered over the plains OR a meriodonal upper flow down the front range, then I would be worried, but that's not the case.

[gboudx]

I remember last year there was a discussion on a potential arctic airmass that didn't pan out. Is history repeating itself?

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... =dense+air

[Portastorm]

I remember last year there was a discussion on a potential arctic airmass that didn't pan out. Is history repeating itself?

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... =dense+air

Great recall, gboudx! Outstanding ... after reading what our pro met pal AFM said ... and given that this air will indeed be of Siberian origin ... perhaps the "weight" and depth of the airmass will overwhelm any strong west-to-east jet and impact us.

It was really educational to go back and read those posts. Nice job!

[Tyler]

but until I see something more consistent/definite, I'm sticking to my guns that it will be mostly east of the southern plains/TX.

My words exactly jschlitz.

I don't understand, ensembles show the cold air making down to Texas, so what are you not seeing? They have been consistent on building a good +PNA ridge in the west and trough in the east, diving cold air southward toward Texas. Perhaps your looking at something else.

I wouldn't say they are consistent. I've seen them waffle between 3 different scenarios just in the past few days. To answer your question, I pasted my reply from this above:

for the most part, the models are showing 3 possible scenarios in their setup: 1) persistent zonal flow with almost a split-flow off the west coast, 2) a block over the NE US, or 3) ridge in the west with a deep trough in the east (but too far east IMO). None of the 3 are a good setup for a discharge of arctic air straight down the plains. Now if there was a classic Omega block centered over the plains OR a meriodonal upper flow down the front range, then I would be worried, but that's not the case.

I don't see anything saying a persistent zonal flow. What I see, are most models indicating the vortex in Alaska that has been the problem this whole time, and has actually strengthened the darn pac jet, will finally retrogress. This may allow the flow to slow down, and the pac jet to actually calm down, creating a nice PNA ridge to our west, and trough in the east that will send some very cold air down to our area. The trough, IMO, does not look to far east at all, I think its in a VERY good spot. At any rate, thats how I see it right now. I'm not saying its going to become historically cold, I'm just saying a return to winter seems likely, just before we hit Spring.

At any rate, it will be fun to see what happens!

[f5]

those temps in Alaska and the Yukon looks like a FEB 1899 airmass

[gboudx]

I remember last year there was a discussion on a potential arctic airmass that didn't pan out. Is history repeating itself?

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... =dense+air

Great recall, gboudx! Outstanding ... after reading what our pro met pal AFM said ... and given that this air will indeed be of Siberian origin ... perhaps the "weight" and depth of the airmass will overwhelm any strong west-to-east jet and impact us.

It was really educational to go back and read those posts. Nice job!

I can't recall what happened, meteorologically, to cause the event to not pan out. I remember reading AFDs from NWS sites in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas all talking about how cold it was gonna get. Yet, it didn't materialize to the degree being discussed. Anyone remember?

[Extremeweatherguy]

but until I see something more consistent/definite, I'm sticking to my guns that it will be mostly east of the southern plains/TX.

My words exactly jschlitz.

I don't understand, ensembles show the cold air making down to Texas, so what are you not seeing? They have been consistent on building a good +PNA ridge in the west and trough in the east, diving cold air southward toward Texas. Perhaps your looking at something else.

I wouldn't say they are consistent. I've seen them waffle between 3 different scenarios just in the past few days. To answer your question, I pasted my reply from this above:

for the most part, the models are showing 3 possible scenarios in their setup: 1) persistent zonal flow with almost a split-flow off the west coast, 2) a block over the NE US, or 3) ridge in the west with a deep trough in the east (but too far east IMO). None of the 3 are a good setup for a discharge of arctic air straight down the plains. Now if there was a classic Omega block centered over the plains OR a meriodonal upper flow down the front range, then I would be worried, but that's not the case.

I don't know. To me all the modeling has seemed pretty consistant (especially over the last few days). For one, the GFS is seeing the cold, for two the Euro continues to show VERY cold air spilling into Canada and Alaska, and for three the ensembles continue to show the pattern setting up so that cold air spills down the plains and not the east. Also, JB seems to be doing a better job after his couple of busts this season. He now aknowledges that he will be much more cautious with his forecasting and has to be quite comfident before making calls like he is now. I have a good feeling JB will be right about this one (seems like he misses a few, then nails one, and then does the same over again. In recent history he nailed the early December cold spell, but then missed 2-3 possible spells after it, and will now probably nail this one). As for me, I have a good feeling (backed by models and JB) that this cold air comes down the plains and and into the east with all of the U.S. east of the rockies becoming cold. Now just how cold is still in question, but I feel that we will have at least a few days of 10-15+ below avg. temperature wise.

[Extremeweatherguy]

those temps in Alaska and the Yukon looks like a FEB 1899 airmass

exactly. Fairbanks, AK will not get above -20 for the foreseeable future,and right now they are a balmy -44 with freezing fog! The scary thing is Fairbanks is in south-central Alaska and not even up in the highest, coldest regions! Latest Euro shows it even colder in 7 days.

[jasons2k]

but until I see something more consistent/definite, I'm sticking to my guns that it will be mostly east of the southern plains/TX.

My words exactly jschlitz.

I don't understand, ensembles show the cold air making down to Texas, so what are you not seeing? They have been consistent on building a good +PNA ridge in the west and trough in the east, diving cold air southward toward Texas. Perhaps your looking at something else.

I wouldn't say they are consistent. I've seen them waffle between 3 different scenarios just in the past few days. To answer your question, I pasted my reply from this above:

for the most part, the models are showing 3 possible scenarios in their setup: 1) persistent zonal flow with almost a split-flow off the west coast, 2) a block over the NE US, or 3) ridge in the west with a deep trough in the east (but too far east IMO). None of the 3 are a good setup for a discharge of arctic air straight down the plains. Now if there was a classic Omega block centered over the plains OR a meriodonal upper flow down the front range, then I would be worried, but that's not the case.

I don't see anything saying a persistent zonal flow. What I see, are most models indicating the vortex in Alaska that has been the problem this whole time, and has actually strengthened the darn pac jet, will finally retrogress. This may allow the flow to slow down, and the pac jet to actually calm down, creating a nice PNA ridge to our west, and trough in the east that will send some very cold air down to our area. The trough, IMO, does not look to far east at all, I think its in a VERY good spot. At any rate, thats how I see it right now. I'm not saying its going to become historically cold, I'm just saying a return to winter seems likely, just before we hit Spring.

At any rate, it will be fun to see what happens!

I should maybe clarify, the persistent zonal flow I was talking about was for the SW and points east as the PAC jet persists. A split flow pattern off the west coast with a ridge in the northern US rockies and a trough over the NE US....but for us mostly zonal. The type of setup that would bring us a front, maybe give us a chilly night or two, but for the most part the "chunk" of cold air gets pushed off to the east.

I agree on the trough setup in the other scenario being in a good spot as modelled. Reading that now an hour later I'm asking myself what I meant by that ?!?!?!?! Maybe I was thinking of something else when I was typing (busy day at the office).

Oh well, by that time it won't look anything like the maps anyway so it really doesn't matter, hehe.

[jasons2k]

I do however think when I go to NYC in Feb it will be very frigid up there.

[Tyler]

If your going to go to NYC in February then your likely to see some snow. I've been hearing their pattern is changing to more snowy, and it looks like that might actually happen!