severe storms in Texas?

[Extremeweatherguy]

The storms are still pretty far out and I'm already seeing some wind gusts. A few miles from here, 36mph gust was recently recorded. On radar, it looks like a few hours before it all gets here.

It's mostly overcast with some sprinkles here and there and the sun peeking through occasionally.

yes, looks like there will be a much better severe threat for your area today since you guys may manage more heating. For Houston though the rain has already begun, and we simply ran out of time. I can't wait until spring when we can really begin to watch severe outbreaks unfold! I always love watching a good lightning storm and seeing the dark clouds roll in.

[WaitingForSiren]

Yeah, all i am expecting for southeast Texas right now is a marginal wind gust or two if even that. I think the probability of wind gusts is higher across Lousiana tonight as the storm strengthens, but that'll still be brief and isolated. It looks like some storms are trying to fire up in southeast kansas and oklahoma, lets see what happens with them. All i expect from them is small hail, though.

[wxmann_91]

Yeah it looks like this is another bust. No surprise of course, the thermodynamic profiles are crappy at best. The convective junk this morning makes it even more unfavorable, though the southern end could develop. TCU along the dry line are struggling.

Off-topic here, but low humidity values and strong winds behind the dryline in west Texas could provide a bad fire situation again. Notice the -1 dewpoint in Raton NM: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface ... duration=0

[southerngale]

well latest looks on radar show that the line of storms seems to be weakening...I feel that this will be a non-event severe weather wise now. May be a few gusts to 35-45mph in the line, but that's about it. Things can change quickly though, but the chance of severe weather in Houston seems to have become minimal at best.

Look again. A few individual cells may be weakening a bit, but others are strengthening. The line seems to be consolidating.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... x&loop=yes

Hopefully no severe weather there, but I wouldn't rule it out yet.

[wxmann_91]

Severe tstorm warnings issued for counties east of Concordia, KS. Northern KS may see the most activity today given that it is the area that has had the most insolation today.

[Tyler]

Raining nicely here in Kingwood!

[WaitingForSiren]

yeah wxmann thats what I was thinking. nice line of storms in Northern Kansas right now.

[WaitingForSiren]

And i wouldnt say this was a bust, wxmann, it was never even anticipated as being a outbreak day anyway. It was obvious 3 days and beyond ago that today wasnt going to be a big severe weather day.

[wxmann_91]

Perhaps, but the 13Z SWODY1 did mention "supercells". You're probably right, but considering the expectations I'd say this was a "minibust", especially considering the number of chasers that actually bought this setup. I wouldn't blame them, I'm having severe SDS myself.

The cell northwest of Emporia has become the dominant one. It has already produced a tornado. If there's any potential today for tornadoes that's the cell (unless other cells manage to backbuild into southern KS and OK, which I doubt given the relatively stable boundary layer from this morning's rain and the sun setting). One cell did try to go up north of OKC but it has since dissipated. Reports are that produced a funnel as well.

Dryline already past Wichita, Oklahoma City and Ft. Worth, so those cities are mostly in the clear now.

[wxmann_91]

Cells near Emporia, KS have lined out again.

Strong line has formed east of Pine Bluff, AR.

Nice bow has formed in southeastern Texas. Tail end of the line near Beaumont (watch out southerngale).

Latter two areas need to be watched for increasing wind damage potential the next few hours. The KS cells still need to be monitored for possible hail and maybe an isolated tornado.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I see Beaumont has been reporting "smoke" all day. Is there a fire in Beaumont?

[WindRunner]

If there was, there sure isn't anymore. Beaumont just got a radar-estimated half-inch of rain since about 6pm, with a good bit more coming thanks to a second line that tried to form, then slid up behind the tail end of the main line.

[Tyler]

I see Beaumont has been reporting "smoke" all day. Is there a fire in Beaumont?

Ya, whats with that? They have been reporting smoke since yesterday, and they still are reporting smoke with heavy rain. Never seen that before.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KBPT.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

I see Beaumont has been reporting "smoke" all day. Is there a fire in Beaumont?

Ya, whats with that? They have been reporting smoke since yesterday, and they still are reporting smoke with heavy rain. Never seen that before.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KBPT.html

yeah and no other station is reporting it. Must be a local event...but then again it must be very small, because there has been no media coverage of any fire in Beaumont.

[WaitingForSiren]

Must be some kind of error>?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest SPC guidance has us under a slight risk of svr. weather tomorrow...and with more sunshine than during the last few outbreaks; we may be able to spark off some interesting weather.


...GULF COAST...

UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE DIGGING A BIT MORE THAN EARLIER MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. LATEST DATA INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF
CONCERN WILL REACH ITS LOWEST LATITUDE OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST
REGION BEFORE EJECTING NEWD LATE IN THE PERIOD. GFS IS A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH/SLOWER THAN NAM MODEL...SUPPORTING RECENT TRENDS OF
UPPER TROUGH OVER CNTRL/SRN TX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.

THIS POSITION WILL SLOW THE NWD RETURN OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
INLAND...ALTHOUGH INCREASED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORIES WILL HOWEVER FORCE QUALITY DEW POINTS/WARM SECTOR
ONSHORE AHEAD OF SFC LOW. LOW LATITUDE UPPER FEATURE WILL ENSURE
MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE DOES NOT SURGE TOO FAR NORTH WITH AN E-W
POSITION LIKELY TO HOLD WITHIN ROUGHLY 100MI OF THE COAST. IN THE
ABSENCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX DURING THE DAY1
PERIOD...STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM
SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS LOWER
60S SFC DEW POINTS RETURN WITH MARITIME WARM SECTOR. VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST BY 18Z...SPREADING TOWARD THE
FL PANHANDLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

Looks to me like instead of seeing a "line" of storms...we may see more scattered, but stronger convection firing up. Would not be surprised to see a few hail, wind and tornado reports tomorrow.

[mike815]

nothing to big i dont think

[WaitingForSiren]

Yeah it looks like the type of situation where you get clusters of storms firing up, but given the weak storm, and the fact that the richest moisture should stay near the coast, it looks more like a heavy rain situation than anything, with persistent clusters of thunderstorms and maybe hail when the storms first initiate.

Friday looks a bit more interesting, but that should be mainly east of Texas, unless the storm slows down. Doesnt look like a severe weather outbreak or anything (not by my standards), but I could see several tornadoes and a few clusters of supercells with large hail.

[mike815]

yeah the fri sat storm interests me might be interesting

[jasons2k]

Tomorrow's outlook looks more interesting to me. The SPC is already saying they may have to upgrade the risk. A lot of times models will underplay these compact systems.