Winter storm threat.... Feb 4-5

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TheWeatherService.com
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Winter storm threat.... Feb 4-5

#1 Postby TheWeatherService.com » Sat Jan 28, 2006 2:35 pm

As many of you know, at the start and end of "cold periods", the East sees its most major winter storm threats. In my "Pattern change... Feb 5-15" thread, I explain why we will see a major pattern change around the Feb 5th period. Models have a hard time in handling these storms that bring about pattern changes, and because of this we have to use good old manual forecasting.

Using models as a GUIDE, there is overwhelming support that there will be a storm somewhere in the country Feb 4-5. The question is... Where? The ECMWF likes the idea of a Midwest bomb. The GFS likes the idea of an Apps runner, but lets look at what conditions will be in place and what storm track is favorable during these conditions.

1. We will have a moderate to strong NAO in place. A negative NAO tends to keep storms SURPRESSED to the SOUTH which rules out the Texas low or Midwest cutter for this storm.

2. The PNA will be WEAKLY POSITIVE. What does this favor? A weakly positive PNA is the best possible state we could be in for a Nor'Easter to develop and ride up the coast.

3. Fastly dropping EPO. This will allow for something we havent seen much of over the past 6 weeks. That is, the Polar Jet should dip down pretty far south and allow this storm to phase at and early state. The question is where does it intersect? Depending upon how low the EPO is at this time will determine whether or not this is a New England storm or a Mid-Atlantic storm. It is to early to make a call on that.

4. The Pacific jet. All year we have seen the Pacific keep storms weaker then progged and pushed further south then what models originally showed because of the Pacific Jet. This storm will be no exception, as I think this thing will deepen into a decent size storm but probably nothing lower then 990mb while effecting the CONUS.

In conclusion...

- The Feb 4-5 storm should effect the EASTERN US with rain and heavy snows. Whether its a New England snowstorm or a MA snowstorm is not yet decided.

- Phasing should occur, but it shouldnt become a bomb or a blizzard by any means.

This is just a heads up. I will keep you updated as we continue to get closer to this possible threat.
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#2 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Jan 28, 2006 6:33 pm

My gut is saying Mid-Atlantic, maybe Southern New England, then the storm center will track South of Nova Scotia and give them some bad weather. Just my two cents.
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#3 Postby WindRunner » Sat Jan 28, 2006 7:12 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:My gut is saying Mid-Atlantic, maybe Southern New England, then the storm center will track South of Nova Scotia and give them some bad weather. Just my two cents.


Mid-Atlantic for snow, or Mid-Atlantic for rain?
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#4 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Jan 28, 2006 10:11 pm

Maybe some snow changing to rain, then maybe back again to snow with the wrap around. A messy mix in other words. Southern New England mostly snow, especially away from the coast. At least that is how I see things unfolding right now.
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