Severe Storms and a Potential Bomb?

wxmann_91 · #1 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sun Jan 29, 2006 8:36 pm

February 1-5 is the timeframe.

The 18Z GFS has a 970 mb low near Detroit on February 5 (Super Bowl Sunday!). This low bombs from 989 mb just 24 hr earlier. Not only is a blizzard possible in the Great Lakes area, but a severe weather outbreak is possible in the SE - if the run verifies. In all likelihood though, this run can be tossed out. I wouldn't be interested if it was only the GFS, but many other models, such as the ECMWF, do show the scenario.

The aspect of the storm I'm interested in is the severe weather. The GFS has been advertising this for many runs, a deepening low near the Ohio Valley. Though poor with severe wx parameters, the GFS, FWIW, shows CAPE values near 2000 in LA and MS. By that time there would have been days of uninterrupted return flow from the Gulf. A weak system is progged to move through the area around Feb. 1-2. The positioning of the low is similar to the November 23, 2004 Gulf Coast outbreak, though moisture would be meager. However, after this system, the "bomb" advertised above should begin to develop and draw in tons of moisture. This could spell trouble for the southeast if the first system moves out in time.

The ECMWF has been very consistent in this scenario so it is the model of choice. It is over 5 days away, but at least the SPC does mention it:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

WindRunner · #2 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Jan 29, 2006 8:48 pm

Yeah, I was just looking at that. The low bottoms out at 00Z on the 6th, as close to kickoff as possible. :lol:

That's the start of the cold air otubreak, too. Winds on the backside pump in all of that cold air and (don't shoot me!) show some snow for Central LA up to the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions, as well as lighter snow for the Mid-Atlantic, with rain for New England. Definately going to be an interesting Sunday.

jkt21787 · #3 Postby **jkt21787** » Sun Jan 29, 2006 9:08 pm

I would toss out the 18z GFS as well. It shows a major snowstorm for my area, Memphis, with about 10" total according to a NWS friend of mine at MEM. That hasn't happened here in about 20 years (that much snow), so I would consider it very unlikely. The extreme bomb scenario of the GFS is an outlier and is not consistent with previous GFS runs and runs of other models.

The severe threat should be there for the Southeast, however, I do believe, but perhaps not to the extreme GFS would indicate it as.

It will have to be watched of course.

WaitingForSiren · #4 Postby **WaitingForSiren** » Sun Jan 29, 2006 10:02 pm

I wouldnt expect much in the way of severe weather. facts show that storms which bomb out in the eastern section of the US like in ohio valley etc dont produce the same kind of instability and sometimes the rapid strengthening of the low actually brings in more warm advection rains. If this storm bombed out in say, arkansas and THEN moved rapidly northeast, I would expects evere weather, but if it bombs out WHILE making its way up the eastern US, i doubt it. Not enough dry air intrusion. I am calling for maybe wind damage and a few tornadoes. SPC is advertising possible severe weather in east texas and the gulf coastal region prior to this event, but I dunno. The storm looks like it wont get its act together right away, so Im not sure about that. But its still far out, so who knows.

Tyler · #5 Postby **Tyler** » Sun Jan 29, 2006 10:30 pm

Nasty day for Detroit on Super Bowl Sunday. Snowy and cold.

jkt21787 · #6 Postby **jkt21787** » Sun Jan 29, 2006 11:22 pm

0z says no to major winter storm and severe weather outbreak

Tyler · #7 Postby **Tyler** » Mon Jan 30, 2006 1:11 am

jkt21787 wrote:0z says no to major winter storm and severe weather outbreak

But it says yes to a major pattern change, evident on day 7!

Ridging is shown to be taking place in the west, then on days 9 and 10, its in full force, with a trough in the east, as cold arctic air flows out of Alaska, around the ridge, down through Canada, and into the US. Its getting within seeing distance now...

wxman22 · #8 Postby **wxman22** » Mon Jan 30, 2006 2:43 am

Even though the 18z run of the GFS keeps the "severe" stuff to the east of us. I must note that the 0z & 12z did not show any precip in Texas with this system at all. And now it does so could this be a model trend? Will just have to see. But the bottem line is that it's to early to & we could in up with severe wx before it's all said & done.... Compair them for yourself:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... s_ten_132m

(Even though the 0z GFS has did a "Flip Flop" it still needs to be moniterd.)

wxman22 · #9 Postby **wxman22** » Mon Jan 30, 2006 2:50 am

The SPC has issued a chance of severe wx for parts of east Texas including us in southeast Texas. Even though it's a low chance it still will need to be watched....

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST MON JAN 30 2006

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GULF STATES...

NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS TX/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION DURING
THE DAY3 PERIOD...AS OPPOSED TO LESS AMPLIFIED/FASTER GFS. SLOWER
SOLUTION WILL ALLOW MODIFIED WRN GULF MARITIME AIRMASS TO RETURN TO
PORTIONS OF ERN TX/CNTRL GULF STATES AS LLJ INCREASES INTO THIS
REGION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED ABSENCE OF CONVECTION DURING THE DAY2
PERIOD UPSTREAM OVER TX...STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ENHANCING TO SOME DEGREE THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW/WIND
SHIFT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUSTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS ACROSS THIS REGION IF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE DOES MOVE INLAND AS IT SEEMS POSSIBLE. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...INITIALLY OVER ERN TX...THEN SPREADING ENEWD AS FAR AS
QUALITY MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN MANAGE TO RETURN INLAND. AT THIS
TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO SOME DISCREPANCY IN MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND THE
DAY2 PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF THE ABOVE SCENARIO DOES BECOME MORE
CLARIFIED THEN A SLIGHT RISK WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.

Tyler · #10 Postby **Tyler** » Mon Jan 30, 2006 2:52 am

Welcome to the board, wxman22.

Yes, we still do need to watch the situation.

wxman22 · #11 Postby **wxman22** » Mon Jan 30, 2006 6:01 am

Hello Tyler & everybody Tyler you may know me as Don on KHOU's weather forum. I just graduated from A&M and now I have a degree in meteorology. I cant wait to start posting my weather info & thoughts on the forum.

Also later on today I'll post my thoughts on the winter forum on the possible "cold" intrusion next month.

Tyler · #12 Postby **Tyler** » Mon Jan 30, 2006 7:23 am

wxman22 wrote:Hello Tyler & everybody Tyler you may know me as Don on KHOU's weather forum. I just graduated from A&M and now I have a degree in meteorology. I cant wait to start posting my weather info & thoughts on the forum. Also later on today I'll post my thoughts on the winter forum on the possible "cold" intrusion next month.

I thought that was you Don!

Congrats on the degree. I'd love to hear your thoughts about the "cold" intrustion next month.

Weatherfreak14 · #13 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Jan 30, 2006 8:09 am

Detroit is an Indoor statuim isnt it?

#14 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jan 30, 2006 9:38 am

Weatherfreak14 wrote:Detroit is an Indoor statuim isnt it?

Yes it is.

bob rulz · #15 Postby **bob rulz** » Mon Jan 30, 2006 3:28 pm

Even if it wasn't it wouldn't stop anybody. You'd have to have the Storm of the Millenium to get people not to come to the Super Bowl.

ohiostorm · #16 Postby **ohiostorm** » Mon Jan 30, 2006 10:51 pm

Thats just the Steelers taking the Super Bowl by STORM. Thats all.

wxman22 · #17 Postby **wxman22** » Mon Jan 30, 2006 11:25 pm

Looks like the GFS may finally be geting the idea of a slower and deeper system....

mike815 · #18 Postby **mike815** » Tue Jan 31, 2006 8:16 am

yeah i was just going to start a thread on this Florida weather offices are all over this they seem to be very concerned mention very faverable for a severe squall line to sweep through this early out to bothers me so this may be the first time this whole stinking winter ill really have something to watch.

mike815 · #19 Postby **mike815** » Tue Jan 31, 2006 8:17 am

WIND FIELDS
INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB AS RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTN/EVE WHICH COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.
STILL HAVE LOTS OF TIME TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM FOR TIMING
AND INTENSITY BUT DID ADD THUNDER TO THE FORECAST SAT.

mike815 · #20 Postby **mike815** » Tue Jan 31, 2006 8:20 am

THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY AND MAY BE PRECEDED BY A SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING LATE
FRIDAY TO EARLY SATURDAY
MAYBE, JUST MAYBE, THERE IS
SOME SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. AFTER ALL...IT`S BEEN A
VERY QUIET WINTER WITH BOUTS OF SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOLLOWED BY
A FEW NICE DAYS...THEN BACK TO A QUICK SHOT OF COOL AIR...ETC. OFTEN...SUCH SYSTEMS ARE LARGE IN AREA AND
STRONG IN EFFECT (JANUARY 2ND-4TH 1999 COMES TO MIND) AND ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT TO POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

Severe Storms and a Potential Bomb?

Severe Storms and a Potential Bomb?

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