WTXS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 23.1S 50.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 50.7E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 23.6S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 23.2S 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.9S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 22.6S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
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REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 50.7E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 12 FEET.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS
A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DIMINISHING CONVECT-
ION. TC 09S IS ENTERING AN ENVIRONMENT OF AMBIGUOUS STEERING BETWEEN
RIDGES TO THE EAST AND WEST. A MIDLATITUDE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE AND RESULT IN A WEST-
WARD TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE STORM HAS
WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, IT SHOULD REMAIN IN
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WARNING STATUS FOR THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.//
NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IS FORECASTED BY THE JTWC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS!
