MAJOR COLD COMING TO THE US FEB 5-20

[aggiecutter]

The 12z EURO day 7 starts the slide...

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.108.gif

[Tyler]

That ridge building in the west, VERY good sign. Tonight's 0z runs should be interesting.

[Tyler]

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.ecmwf850t.html

If you look at that, you can see how at day 7 it looks as though Canada is warming. However, thats a good sign that the ridge is building. The cold air you see bottled up in Alaska will start flow around the ridge and then south through Canada and into the US. You can kinda see that happening on day 7. There will be the first initial cold front probably this weekend, that will return much more colder air to the US, and more seasonable temperatures, then afterwards, we watch the bitterly cold air flow through Canada, and see where that goes.

[Jim Hughes]

One other thing. I am still perplexed as to why so many of the mets are disregarding this past weeks stratosphere warming as a warning sign. Especially considering it's extreme strength.

Jim

Are you speaking of the 10mb level correlations? If you are, do you have a link to the 10mb levels? I'm being lazy but wanted to look at them.

I monitor just about all of the levels. I know a good deal of the science community tends to look at the 10 hPa but I find this somewhat strange since they would not just look at one level in the atmosphere.

I even look at Momentum flux, Heat flux etc....I want to know what kind of wave action is going on up there.

I do not have any URL's handy right now but I posted many URL's for access to stratosphere data in my AMO stratosphere discussion that I wrote a few months back in the Talkin Tropics forum. You can access graphs or hard data with them.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=78570


Jim

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.ecmwf850t.html

If you look at that, you can see how at day 7 it looks as though Canada is warming. However, thats a good sign that the ridge is building. The cold air you see bottled up in Alaska will start flow around the ridge and then south through Canada and into the US. You can kinda see that happening on day 7. There will be the first initial cold front probably this weekend, that will return much more colder air to the US, and more seasonable temperatures, then afterwards, we watch the bitterly cold air flow through Canada, and see where that goes.

yes it shows the ridge go up nicely, and you can see the cold air spilling down central Canada. I think this first blast hits the NE hard next weekend, but that we too get hit by it. This is only the start though...Can't wait to see the 7-day models next weekend; they will probably be filled with cold air.

[Tyler]

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.ecmwf850t.html

If you look at that, you can see how at day 7 it looks as though Canada is warming. However, thats a good sign that the ridge is building. The cold air you see bottled up in Alaska will start flow around the ridge and then south through Canada and into the US. You can kinda see that happening on day 7. There will be the first initial cold front probably this weekend, that will return much more colder air to the US, and more seasonable temperatures, then afterwards, we watch the bitterly cold air flow through Canada, and see where that goes.

yes it shows the ridge go up nicely, and you can see the cold air spilling down central Canada. I think this first blast hits the NE hard next weekend, but that we too get hit by iy too. This is only the start though...Can't wait to see the 7-day models next weekend; they will probably be filled with cold air.

Yes, I agree. We are finally starting to see the beggining of a MUCH COLDER pattern in the medium range.

[jimvb]

Extremeweatherguy, that bears out what I was saying. It seems that GFS predicts this arctic outbreak, but it always seems to be 7-8 days away. It never gets here. I will believe it when the arctic outbreak moves to 4 days from now on the GFS, especially if the other models start chiming in.

If it does come, we are in for snowstorm trouble. If it doesn't, we are in for hurricane trouble.

[tornadochaser1986]

lets hope that doesnt happen im from virginia but i goi to college in mobile alabama if people complain when its 60 degrees about them being cold then how am i going to put up with 30 degree weather lol well anyways ya i was wondering the same thing where is winter?

[PTPatrick]

I live in Mobile chaser, and so far the only thing I am complaining about is the lack of cold weather. And most folks are in agreement. We have such a short winter down here, most folks enjoy those little arctic bursts. I cant wait. This is the first winter in my entire life I believe that I have not seen a low below 30 degrees.

[Cumulonimbus]

If you look at the PNA since about Dec 5th it has not been negative at all.

[TheWeatherService.com]

New CDC 8-14 day temp outlook...



They are finally catching on

[Extremeweatherguy]

Finally, a good forecast from the CPC!!! Now all of those people saying it will not happen have not just a few people against them, but they also now have the CPC against them too.

[bob rulz]

Damn. The cold is only hitting the East.

[gboudx]

Finally, a good forecast from the CPC!!! Now all of those people saying it will not happen have not just a few people against them, but they also now have the CPC against them too.

If the prediction would've been for warmer than normal temps in your area, would you be patting the CPC on the back so hard? Or would you be saying that it's just a prediction, not accurate and it will bust when the cold comes down?

I've seen many a 8-14 day CPC prediction go poof. I'm not saying that will happen in this case, because honestly, I don't know.

[Jim Hughes]

Finally, a good forecast from the CPC!!! Now all of those people saying it will not happen have not just a few people against them, but they also now have the CPC against them too.

If the prediction would've been for warmer than normal temps in your area, would you be patting the CPC on the back so hard? Or would you be saying that it's just a prediction, not accurate and it will bust when the cold comes down?

I've seen many a 8-14 day CPC prediction go poof. I'm not saying that will happen in this case, because honestly, I don't know.

It's human nature. People look for guidance and the CPC is like a GOD to some people.

Some people have really wanted to see some winter like weather for quite some time now and it seems the CPC is now forecasting for this to occur.


So everybody's happy. Their faith is restored and now the churches will be crowded again on Sunday.

What do I think about this cult like following of the CPC ?


Jim

[Extremeweatherguy]

Finally, a good forecast from the CPC!!! Now all of those people saying it will not happen have not just a few people against them, but they also now have the CPC against them too.

If the prediction would've been for warmer than normal temps in your area, would you be patting the CPC on the back so hard? Or would you be saying that it's just a prediction, not accurate and it will bust when the cold comes down?

I've seen many a 8-14 day CPC prediction go poof. I'm not saying that will happen in this case, because honestly, I don't know.

actually I tend to dislike the CPC on many occassions...but since they are now predicting cold, I feel like there is more of a backing to many peoples cooler pattern predictions. If they would have had a graphic showing extreme heat, then it would make many people more skeptical, icluding myself. All I was trying to say is that this is a good sign in the road to a pattern change. The more agreement the better. Now we just need to get the models and NWS in agreement...after that I would say we are game on for the cold spell.

[gboudx]

More skeptical of what? The CPC or the forecast for the cold air?

If I start noticing the NWS's coming around, then maybe I'll bite. But it'd have to be multiple offices, over multiple AFD's. A one-time mention won't do it for me.

[Tyler]

More skeptical of what? The CPC or the forecast for the cold air?

If I start noticing the NWS's coming around, then maybe I'll bite. But it'd have to be multiple offices, over multiple AFD's. A one-time mention won't do it for me.

Well then, your going to have to wait until the Super Bowl...

[Extremeweatherguy]

More skeptical of what? The CPC or the forecast for the cold air?

If I start noticing the NWS's coming around, then maybe I'll bite. But it'd have to be multiple offices, over multiple AFD's. A one-time mention won't do it for me.

I would become a little more skeptical on the cold air; but now that they too are predicting it...I will continue with my thinking of a pattern change in 5-10 days.

[jasons2k]

Finally, a good forecast from the CPC!!! Now all of those people saying it will not happen have not just a few people against them, but they also now have the CPC against them too.

I wouldn't call it a good forecast from them. It looks like they don't know if the cold air is coming down the plains, or going to the NE, so they split the difference. Looks typical to me, and I doubt it will verify that way. The center of the cold will be either west or NE of where they have it - and I'm still betting to the NE.