Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[jasons2k]

FWIW just went through and read the first few pages of this thread and there was sure a lot of talk about the last part of Jan/early Feb being real cold and JB was forecasting one of the worst arctic outbreaks in who-knows-how-long blah blah blah. It could have been from 2 weeks ago, mid December, or yesterday, it's all the same hype to me.

I'll believe we're in for it here in SE Texas when I see it foreasted within 5 days. At this rate that may be in 2008.

[Portastorm]

FWIW just went through and read the first few pages of this thread and there was sure a lot of talk about the last part of Jan/early Feb being real cold and JB was forecasting one of the worst arctic outbreaks in who-knows-how-long blah blah blah. It could have been from 2 weeks ago, mid December, or yesterday, it's all the same hype to me.

I'll believe we're in for it here in SE Texas when I see it foreasted within 5 days. At this rate that may be in 2008.

Yup, he certainly did advertise several "outbreaks" that never happened this winter. Today he even suggested that by the end of February, the "potential" U.S. experience during the month of Feb. 2006 might draw comparisons to what happened this past month in Asia. When I read that I thought "oh c'mon ...."

Those of us who'd like a little winter admittedly are looking for any signs of hope. As for now, all I'm seeing are signs of spring outside!!

[jasons2k]

FWIW just went through and read the first few pages of this thread and there was sure a lot of talk about the last part of Jan/early Feb being real cold and JB was forecasting one of the worst arctic outbreaks in who-knows-how-long blah blah blah. It could have been from 2 weeks ago, mid December, or yesterday, it's all the same hype to me.

I'll believe we're in for it here in SE Texas when I see it foreasted within 5 days. At this rate that may be in 2008.

Yup, he certainly did advertise several "outbreaks" that never happened this winter. Today he even suggested that by the end of February, the "potential" U.S. experience during the month of Feb. 2006 might draw comparisons to what happened this past month in Asia. When I read that I thought "oh c'mon ...."

Those of us who'd like a little winter admittedly are looking for any signs of hope. As for now, all I'm seeing are signs of spring outside!!

His column is full of "potentials". Just about anything "could" happen. The issue is when people translate his potentials into some actual forecast; it hardly ever verifies into anything like the advertised threat. If the citrus zones in TX and FL froze over every time JB advertised that "threat", the citrus industry would have closed down ages ago.

[Portastorm]

I don't know if I would use the phrase hardly ever verifies but as I have pointed out, he certainly has taken a drubbing since mid December. You're right about that.

[jasons2k]

I don't know if I would use the phrase hardly ever verifies but as I have pointed out, he certainly has taken a drubbing since mid December. You're right about that.

Well, true, depending on the situation. When he actually puts up a forecast he does a decent job. When he says the actual forecast will be 5 or 10 below the current GFS numbers, he usually gets something like that right as well.

Then he'll throw out a little carot like today, saying "Set up is there for most memorable widespread winter weather in many a year, a US version of what has happened in Asia." Let's analyze that statement a bit. It froze in New Delhi. That's just about the equivalent of it freezing in Key West. Not gonna happen - at least not this winter.

[Portastorm]

I don't know if I would use the phrase hardly ever verifies but as I have pointed out, he certainly has taken a drubbing since mid December. You're right about that.

Well, true, depending on the situation. When he actually puts up a forecast he does a decent job. When he says the actual forecast will be 5 or 10 below the current GFS numbers, he usually gets something like that right as well.

Then he'll throw out a little carot like today, saying "Set up is there for most memorable widespread winter weather in many a year, a US version of what has happened in Asia." Let's analyze that statement a bit. It froze in New Delhi. That's just about the equivalent of it freezing in Key West. Not gonna happen - at least not this winter.

No argument here. Very well said.

[Johnny]

My thoughts exactly Jeff.

JB was really hyping up the cold back in December comparing it to 1989 which never materialized. He also hyped up a snow storm the week before Christmas for most of Texas...which didn't happen. He then talked about major cold around the New Year....which didn't happen. That's 3 scenarios just recently that JB painted that never came to pass. I guess all we can do is sit back and see what happens with the cold that is up north. Yes I know, unlike before the cold air is presently on the map. Like I said before, just because we have very cold air bottled up in an area that has given us historic arctic outbreaks here in Texas does NOT mean that it is on our way to us.

We are WAY overdue for a serious cold snap but mother nature doesn't give a flip about that.

[Brent]

Yup, he certainly did advertise several "outbreaks" that never happened this winter. Today he even suggested that by the end of February, the "potential" U.S. experience during the month of Feb. 2006 might draw comparisons to what happened this past month in Asia. When I read that I thought "oh c'mon ...."

LOL... he needs to lay off the crack.

I'm sure it'll be -50 over the Plains States.

[Johnny]

I'd also like to point out that I started this thread on January 16th. At that time it looked like the cold would be coming down at the end of January or the beginning of February. Since then the cold has been getting pushed back a half day, then a day, then two days, then 5 days etc. Now their are talks of mid to late month when the brunt of this cold could push south. This is a delayed trend. I don't care which way you cut it.

[aggiecutter]

I subscribed to JB for 3 years. He always tried to predict the extreme weather situation in hopes of making himself look like the weather guru. Unfortunately, the weather extremes rarely occur. As a result, you have to take his forcast with a grain of salt because they are often based on a hope and a prayer, not sound meteorlogical science.

About all one(amateurs) can do to predict the weather in the medium range(7-15 days) is look at the indicies and the trends of the models(consistency and agreability) over a 4-7 day period of time. Speaking of consistency, this is the 4th day in a row the Ensembles have looked very cold(east of Rockies) past 240hrs.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... times.html

[Tyler]

Well, there is a change in the upper air pattern now coming in 6 days. You'd be foolish to say there is not one. I know some of you have been let down, however, it looks like this is the real deal. Instead of having to see the change at day 10, we can now see it at day 6! The pattern change, IMO, is coming. The Euro and the GFS actually agree now in the extended. The 12z is very encouraging. We can now see evidence in the pattern change at hour 150!

The real deal is finally happening folks! The pac jet, is about to meet its maker. Much like it did for those two weeks in December. Upper air pattern change, coming Super Bowl weekend.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[Brent]

I'd also like to point out that I started this thread on January 16th. At that time it looked like the cold would be coming down at the end of January or the beginning of February. Since then the cold has been getting pushed back a half day, then a day, then two days, then 5 days etc. Now their are talks of mid to late month when the brunt of this cold could push south. This is a delayed trend. I don't care which way you cut it.

Exactly my feelings.

[Johnny]

Tyler, I'm not doubting that we will be going into a colder pattern. I mean heck, we have been in a very warm pattern for just about the entire month of January....it's bound to get colder, right? What I am second guessing is extreme cold and I think I'm second guessing it for a very good reason. Yes, I do see a colder pattern coming up. My questioning has to do with the strength of the cold. I don't consider upper 20's on a clear calm night extreme cold. I also don't consider temperatures staying in the lower to mid 40's during the day extreme cold. That is not all that abnormal for us here in Southeast, Texas to dip down into the upper 20's a couple of times each winter. It's also not abnormal for use to have a few days (if not more) each winter of temperatures not getting out of the mid-40's.
When I think of extreme cold in Southeast, Texas, it makes me think of temperatures struggling to get out of the upper 20's and staying around freezing for at least two days. That kind of cold doesn't happen too often here in Southeast, Texas.

So again, YES...I am seeing the colder pattern but their is alot to argue about the extremity of it or lack thereof.

[PTrackerLA]

Well, there is a change in the upper air pattern now coming in 6 days. You'd be foolish to say there is not one. I know some of you have been let down, however, it looks like this is the real deal. Instead of having to see the change at day 10, we can now see it at day 6! The pattern change, IMO, is coming. The Euro and the GFS actually agree now in the extended. The 12z is very encouraging. We can now see evidence in the pattern change at hour 150!

The real deal is finally happening folks! The pac jet, is about to meet its maker. Much like it did for those two weeks in December. Upper air pattern change, coming Super Bowl weekend.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

I see the cold air progged for this weekend, could be near freezing around here but then the pattern quickly shifts back to zonal and then the east getting more cold around day 10 and after. The NWS has mentioned that they aren't going to buy into the cold shown by the models because it has ended up being much warmer in reality since late December. Why change now?

[Portastorm]

Well, there is a change in the upper air pattern now coming in 6 days. You'd be foolish to say there is not one. I know some of you have been let down, however, it looks like this is the real deal. Instead of having to see the change at day 10, we can now see it at day 6! The pattern change, IMO, is coming. The Euro and the GFS actually agree now in the extended. The 12z is very encouraging. We can now see evidence in the pattern change at hour 150!

The real deal is finally happening folks! The pac jet, is about to meet its maker. Much like it did for those two weeks in December. Upper air pattern change, coming Super Bowl weekend.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

I see the cold air progged for this weekend, could be near freezing around here but then the pattern quickly shifts back to zonal and then the east getting more cold around day 10 and after. The NWS has mentioned that they aren't going to buy into the cold shown by the models because it has ended up being much warmer in reality since late December. Why change now?

Which cold is the NWS not buying into and to which NWS office are you referring?

[Extremeweatherguy]

My thoughts exactly Jeff.

JB was really hyping up the cold back in December comparing it to 1989 which never materialized. He also hyped up a snow storm the week before Christmas for most of Texas...which didn't happen. He then talked about major cold around the New Year....which didn't happen. That's 3 scenarios just recently that JB painted that never came to pass. I guess all we can do is sit back and see what happens with the cold that is up north. Yes I know, unlike before the cold air is presently on the map. Like I said before, just because we have very cold air bottled up in an area that has given us historic arctic outbreaks here in Texas does NOT mean that it is on our way to us.

We are WAY overdue for a serious cold snap but mother nature doesn't give a flip about that.

He never really compared it to 1989 for Houston in specific. In general, yes, the first 20 days were the coldest first 20 days of December (nationwide) since 1989...so really he was right.

[wxman22]

Well I believe there will be cold air, it's just who gets it is the question. I have noticed the GFS flip flopping run by run with the cold air one run pushes the "cold" stuff straight south to effect the plains which would include us in Texas and then the next model run pushes most of the cold air more to the southeast. And sometimes the GFS loses the hold entire idea of arctic air next month. But the main fact even if theres not consincy from run to run is that the models including the GFS are going with are idea of much colder air effecting the U.S. Another thing I want to note is that the GFS (even though not consistent) has the southern jet active why theres cold air (when it has cold air) across the south. These GFS fantasy "winter storms" may not pane out the same way the GFS sees it. But the GFS may be giving us hints that the southern jet may be active and if that is true and theres cold air in place the south may be dealing with a wintry precip event in February. We may get are first of what may be a series of "strong" fronts next weekend or early next week. Thats just my 2 cents .

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think that overall the pattern change is coming and a cooler pattern will commence this weekend/next week...but I do not know about "extreme" cold for certain just yet. I think that the probability is certainly much higher than during a typical February given the cold air in Alaska and Canada and some of the other big factors. For now I will say cooler, but as for "extreme", the potential exists, but I won't call for it until we are 7 or less days out (But once again the potential exists, and people need to realize that).

[gboudx]

Snippet from DFW NWS this afternoon. So, everyone calling for the cold, are they smoking crack over there or something?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 PM CST MON JAN 30 2006

...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW CONFIGURATION WITH LITTLE HOPE FOR RAIN AS GULF MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED EAST AHEAD OF EACH SYSTEM. NO ARCTIC OUTBREAKS ON THE HORIZON EITHER AS UPPER PATTERN IS MUCH TOO PROGRESSIVE. EVEN FARTHER UPSTREAM...THE BITTER COLD TEMPS IN ALASKA WILL GET PUSHED BACK INTO SIBERIA DURING THE NEXT WEEK.

[Portastorm]

Snippet from DFW NWS this afternoon. So, everyone calling for the cold, are they smoking crack over there or something?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 PM CST MON JAN 30 2006

...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW CONFIGURATION WITH LITTLE HOPE FOR RAIN AS GULF MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED EAST AHEAD OF EACH SYSTEM. NO ARCTIC OUTBREAKS ON THE HORIZON EITHER AS UPPER PATTERN IS MUCH TOO PROGRESSIVE. EVEN FARTHER UPSTREAM...THE BITTER COLD TEMPS IN ALASKA WILL GET PUSHED BACK INTO SIBERIA DURING THE NEXT WEEK.

Well, technically this is accurate for the next 5 days or so.