2005 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Reports Discussion Thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
bob rulz
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1704
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 7:30 pm
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

#121 Postby bob rulz » Mon Jan 30, 2006 3:48 pm

As far as Bob's point, one may claim that "overwhelming/preponderance" of evidence is present, while another on the same jury, may disagree. Right?


Well, another point I was trying to get across is that the way people think specifically can mean that what some people believe to be hard evidence, other people don't believe that it is and may think that something else sounds more plausible. If a debate drags on for days and all of the different arguments are used up and exhausted, with no budge of opinion on either side, then there's really nothing you can do and re-using the same old debates is just like talking to brick walls. It's not necessarily hard-headedness, it's just the way their brain thinks, if you understand what I mean. I had a really good way to word it, but I can't recall what it was...
0 likes   

User avatar
Pearl River
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 825
Age: 66
Joined: Fri Dec 09, 2005 6:07 pm
Location: SELa

#122 Postby Pearl River » Mon Jan 30, 2006 4:01 pm

Good point Bob.
0 likes   

f5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1550
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2005 3:29 pm
Location: Waco,tx

#123 Postby f5 » Mon Jan 30, 2006 5:43 pm

Katrina could of been a 5 if it wasn't for the dry air that eroded her western semi-circle
0 likes   

User avatar
Audrey2Katrina
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4252
Age: 75
Joined: Fri Dec 23, 2005 10:39 pm
Location: Metaire, La.

#124 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Mon Jan 30, 2006 5:54 pm

Well thank GOD for small favors! :(

A2K
0 likes   
Flossy 56 Audrey 57 Hilda 64* Betsy 65* Camille 69* Edith 71 Carmen 74 Bob 79 Danny 85 Elena 85 Juan 85 Florence 88 Andrew 92*, Opal 95, Danny 97, Georges 98*, Isidore 02, Lili 02, Ivan 04, Cindy 05*, Dennis 05, Katrina 05*, Gustav 08*, Isaac 12*, Nate 17, Barry 19, Cristobal 20, Marco, 20, Sally, 20, Zeta 20*, Claudette 21 IDA* 21 Francine *24

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

#125 Postby ROCK » Mon Jan 30, 2006 7:22 pm

f5 wrote:Katrina could of been a 5 if it wasn't for the dry air that eroded her western semi-circle



True...and the suspect ERC, cooler subsurface water, interaction with land though in some cases I have seen it help tighten up a storm......you need perfect conditions to get a 5.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145625
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#126 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 06, 2006 1:28 pm

Hurricane Irene Report is posted at the reports thread.Any of you have any comments about Irene the only true Cape Verde system of 2005?
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Derek Ortt

#127 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Feb 06, 2006 2:26 pm

disagree with irene not carried as a broken track cyclone when QS indicates that it was a wave for 5 days. Really do not udnerstand why it is a weak storm and a depression, when the evidence is pointing toward open wave
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#128 Postby KWT » Mon Feb 06, 2006 2:34 pm

Yeah I agree Derek I remember seeing lots of loops of Irene and it seemed half the time not to a LLC present or at best it was weak.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

MiamiensisWx

#129 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Feb 06, 2006 2:52 pm

They also raised Irene's peak intensity to 90KT (105MPH).
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145625
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#130 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 08, 2006 12:16 pm

Any comments about the Hurricane Maria report? Maria briefly turned into a major hurricane.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#131 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Feb 08, 2006 4:12 pm

There still seemed to be a LLC even so weak on Irene. Maybe a few times opened up but there still appeared to be a strong LLC for most of the time coming in then out of the convection.

Also I believe td 10 became a depression intill about 500 miles east-northeast of the windwards. It had a strong LLC and was really trying to develop conection. I think after Charley,An a few other systems that the quickscats should be treated as another toll. There not always going to work to good.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145625
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#132 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 10, 2006 2:45 pm

Any comments about the Hurricane Philippe report? Now only 10 reports are left including some important ones such as Hurricane Emily,Hurricane Rita,Hurricane Stan and Hurricane Vince.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

MiamiensisWx

#133 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Feb 10, 2006 3:04 pm

Wow... amazing how suddenly things have gone fast with the reports, Luis! Amazing that there are just ten left to release!
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#134 Postby KWT » Fri Feb 10, 2006 4:18 pm

Yeah they have flown through, it was only a month ago that were only a few, still I suppose with so many to do and the prospects of another active season looming, its best to get them out of the way early.

I'm personally very intrested in Rita and Emily, but also intrested in good ole little hurricane Vince that came to visit us here in Europe.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

HurricaneJoe22
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 456
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:45 am
Location: Temple, Texas

#135 Postby HurricaneJoe22 » Fri Feb 10, 2006 4:31 pm

they probably want to get them done so they can go on vacation before the season starts!
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145625
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#136 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 13, 2006 7:51 pm

Of the 10 reports that are left the Hurricane Rita report is the most expected report that all are waiting for to see if they downgrade it.

Let's see if the next report they release is the Rita one.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145625
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#137 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 14, 2006 3:36 pm

The Stan and Tammy reports are out.Any comments about them?

Is interesting what they say about the deaths caused by Stan and those not related to the hurricane.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145625
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#138 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 15, 2006 12:11 pm

Any comments about Tropical Storm Delta report? Some thought that Delta would be upgraded to a hurricane but it didn't occured.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Andrew92
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3247
Age: 41
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
Location: Phoenix, Arizona

#139 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Feb 15, 2006 12:35 pm

Delta reminded me of Peter from 2003. Strong tropical storm from subtropical origins, develops an eye-feature, yet just fails to make hurricane intensity. I'm actually not too surprised that Delta was not posthumously upgraded to a hurricane, since Peter was not either.

I didn't realize that Delta hit the Canary Islands as hard as it did though! It's sad that seven people died from the storm there.

I'm guessing Franklin or Harvey will be the next up. Then again, I thought that last night when I went to bed, and was wrong, so who knows!

-Andrew92
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145625
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#140 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 15, 2006 12:40 pm

I'm guessing Franklin or Harvey will be the next up. Then again, I thought that last night when I went to bed, and was wrong, so who knows!


Well I went to the what report would be out next thing but failed all the time and that is why I dont do it anymore. :) But there are only 7 reports that are left so soon enough all will be out with the Emily,Rita and Vince reports are the most important of those 7 left.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: LarryWx, nativefloridian, riapal, Sciencerocks and 393 guests