Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[jasons2k]

Tyler, I'm not doubting that we will be going into a colder pattern. I mean heck, we have been in a very warm pattern for just about the entire month of January....it's bound to get colder, right? What I am second guessing is extreme cold and I think I'm second guessing it for a very good reason. Yes, I do see a colder pattern coming up. My questioning has to do with the strength of the cold. I don't consider upper 20's on a clear calm night extreme cold. I also don't consider temperatures staying in the lower to mid 40's during the day extreme cold. That is not all that abnormal for us here in Southeast, Texas to dip down into the upper 20's a couple of times each winter. It's also not abnormal for use to have a few days (if not more) each winter of temperatures not getting out of the mid-40's.
When I think of extreme cold in Southeast, Texas, it makes me think of temperatures struggling to get out of the upper 20's and staying around freezing for at least two days. That kind of cold doesn't happen too often here in Southeast, Texas.

So again, YES...I am seeing the colder pattern but their is alot to argue about the extremity of it or lack thereof.

Couldn't have stated it better myself.

For example, someone several days ago was talking about how extreme this outbreak was going to be, then posted a forecast of 10-15 degrees below normal. Well by the time we get to Feb, 15th the normal low/high for Houston is up to 44/67. 10 degrees below that is 34/57 - not exactly ice-skating weather. Even 15 degrees puts you at 29/52.

Also, Extremeweatherguy: I think people like myself who have been saying we do not see an imminent threat of an "extreme" outbreak here in TX all recognize the possibility that anything can happen. You've posted several times in various threads the last 2 days "people need to realize ___________". Realize what? Most of the people you have been indirectly pointing to here have been watching Texas weather for many, many years. Many of them are proven veterans and even pro mets here on S2K. We, probably more than most people, understand the possibilities and subsequent implications of a record-breaking cold wave. Just because we're not willing to buy into a model solution 10 or 14 days out (that seems to almost always be 10 or 14 days out) doesn't mean the possibility isn't noted. But it always involves digging deeper, and as wxman22 pointed out, the Houston snowstorms that seem to show up once a day or so on the GFS are fantasies....at least until OTHER complimentary factors line-up with it.

We also realize that extreme events are inherently infrequent, otherwise they wouldn't be very "extreme" to begin with.

[Portastorm]

Maybe that is why he goes by extremeweatherguy?

If he was regularweatherguy, we probably wouldn't see the same enthusiasm!

(Portastorm just trying to lighten the mood a little ...)

[southerngale]

Now this is extreme for Southeast Texas.

January 1997 Ice Storm - below freezing for several days - almost everyone was without power...for nearly a week. I didn't have a fireplace at the time and I can remember wearing a bunch of socks and shoes and my feet were still frozen. I was with a couple of friends and we bundled up the best we could trying to stay warm. We had a grill so we were able to cook and get a little heat from that occasionally. lol
We had meat...just opened the freezer and it all stayed fresh. You would constantly hear the snapping sound of branches falling everywhere. As more branches fell, more people lost power.

Excuse the bad pics...they were scanned on my mediocre scanner.








One interesting little sidenote for those hoping for an Arctic outbreak: it was unusually warm in January before this occurred. I don't think it was as lengthy as it is now though. But despite these warm days (most of the time lately), it's been pretty chilly many nights during January, at least for here. Nothing extremely cold though, that's for sure.

*Edited because picture links changed

[gboudx]

Snippet from DFW NWS this afternoon. So, everyone calling for the cold, are they smoking crack over there or something?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 PM CST MON JAN 30 2006

...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW CONFIGURATION WITH LITTLE HOPE FOR RAIN AS GULF MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED EAST AHEAD OF EACH SYSTEM. NO ARCTIC OUTBREAKS ON THE HORIZON EITHER AS UPPER PATTERN IS MUCH TOO PROGRESSIVE. EVEN FARTHER UPSTREAM...THE BITTER COLD TEMPS IN ALASKA WILL GET PUSHED BACK INTO SIBERIA DURING THE NEXT WEEK.

Well, technically this is accurate for the next 5 days or so.

So, everyone has been seeing the air retreating into Siberia in the next 5-7 days all along? I wasn't getting that from some of the discussions. I guess I'm looking for some mention or consistency with my local NWS office. So far, I don't see it.

[Portastorm]

Snippet from DFW NWS this afternoon. So, everyone calling for the cold, are they smoking crack over there or something?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 PM CST MON JAN 30 2006

...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW CONFIGURATION WITH LITTLE HOPE FOR RAIN AS GULF MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED EAST AHEAD OF EACH SYSTEM. NO ARCTIC OUTBREAKS ON THE HORIZON EITHER AS UPPER PATTERN IS MUCH TOO PROGRESSIVE. EVEN FARTHER UPSTREAM...THE BITTER COLD TEMPS IN ALASKA WILL GET PUSHED BACK INTO SIBERIA DURING THE NEXT WEEK.

Well, technically this is accurate for the next 5 days or so.

So, everyone has been seeing the air retreating into Siberia in the next 5-7 days all along? I wasn't getting that from some of the discussions. I guess I'm looking for some mention or consistency with my local NWS office. So far, I don't see it.

I'm not aware of ANY NWS office outside of Midland this morning that progged an arctic outbreak between now and Feb. 3rd. There's been plenty of that kind of chatter on this board but nothing from the government-paid forecasters.

I think the consistency comes in from that and also that there appears to be no clear method of delivering this bitterly cold air south between now and then. There is a trough moving across the southern Plains this weekend and it has -- at times through various model runs -- looked very deep and cold. But that's about it. And the GFS has shown potential arctic outbreaks beyond Feb. 5-6 ... however, we all know how dicey those forecasts are. Also the ensembles have consistently shown a colder look for mid February.

And I don't know about that air being "pushed into Siberia" part. Last I heard, Alaska was staying cold and below normal.

[aggiecutter]

For the first time in over a month, the CPC's probability scheme has below normal temperatures predicted for the eastern 2/3's of the country in its 8-14 day outlook. What does this mean? Probably nothing. But, it's another coal to throw on the fire.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... mp.new.gif

The 8-14 day discussion from the CPC...

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 07 - 13 2006: THE CIRCULATION PATTERN IS FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL MODELS TO UNDERGO SOME RAPID CHANGES, WITH THE RESULT BEING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. WITH THE EXPECTED WESTERN MIGRATION OF THE DEEP TROUGH FROM ALASKA TO KAMCHATKA, RIDGING WILL NOW HAVE A CHANCE TO SET UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND AMPLIFY. MOST SOLUTIONS PREDICT ABOVE-AVERAGE 500 HPA HEIGHTS OVER PRACTICALLY ALL OF CANADA AND GREENLAND, WITH STRONG POSITIVE CENTERS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF GREENLAND. THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) INDEX IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION FROM NEAR ZERO AT THE PRESENT TIME TO SIGNIFICANTLY NEGATIVE IN THE WEEK 2 TIMEFRAME. WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH PROJECTED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. (ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST) IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED STORMINESS WILL BE A GOOD BET OVER THAT REGION. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... SINCE THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO THE COLDER PATTERN SOMETIME DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD, AND THE TIMING OF THESE TRANSITIONS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

[gboudx]

By discussions I meant on this board, not NWS offices. I routinely read the surrounding offices AFD's to try and piece together consistency. So far the consistency is warm, dry and continued fire danger.

BTW, no mention of it from Midland this afternoon now. Only pertinent part pasted.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
236 PM CST MON JAN 30 2006

ANOTHER LEE TROUGH AND THERMAL RIDGING THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WAVE APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE WILL AMPLIFY AND DRAG A COOL
FRONT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
(ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT IN THE VERY DRY AIR) ANTICIPATED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. COULD BE A WIND AND FIRE WEATHER PRODUCER IF
PROJECTED TRACK OF LOW REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA.

[Portastorm]

No arguments here. I think over the next 5-7 days that's the rule and I have no beef with NWS forecasters about that. They get paid to do that and most do it well.

HOWEVER ... I do think we will see a pattern change beyond the 7-day period. How cold? I don't know, but certainly colder than current. I think some area of the country east of the Rockies will see some very cold readings during the 7- to 21-day period from now. Whether it's Texas or Ohio, I don't know. Given all of the medium-range modeling and what other pro mets are saying in other arenas, I do like our chances for a pattern change in February.

[Tyler]

This thread is really fun. Good debates going on here!

Anyway, I wouldn't pay attention to the exact details in the long range on the GFS, but look at the overall pattern. It screams cold. We'll have to wait for the Super Bowl to see where the coldest air is headed. Becuase right now, I honestly don't have a clue!

At least we can now see the pattern change in 6 days rather than 10 days.

[gboudx]

Tyler what do you make of the DFW office saying the bitterly cold air will head back to Siberia? Does that factor at all into any of this?

[Tyler]

Yes, the cold air will in fact go back to Siberia. That is a good thing. The reason it has been so cold is the Polar Vortex has been in Alaska. That vortex has allowed the pacific jet to be so strong, and create a fast, progressive flow across the US, not allowing ANY arctic air in. That Alaskan Vortex will finally move out, and with it goes the cold air, and the pac jet slows itself down, again thats a good thing. A ridge will build on the west coast, possibly a REX block, while a -NAO develops, and nice blocking near Greenland. This could help to create a cross-polar flow, as the polar vortex moves right down through Canada and into Hudson Bay.

This is basically what the GFS model has been showing for quite some time now. Now, I'm not saying it will be record cold in Feb, however, compared to what we have been seeing, the upcoming pattern change will probably shock the US.

[gboudx]

Thanks for the explanation Tyler.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Maybe that is why he goes by extremeweatherguy?

If he was regularweatherguy, we probably wouldn't see the same enthusiasm!

(Portastorm just trying to lighten the mood a little ...)

exactly. If weather was tranquil and mild all the time then where would the fun be? I like the extremes, they are always better than the normal. I would take a severe weather outbreak or a blizzard over sunny and 70 anyday...well unless I am on vacation or have to do something outside. Then it becomes a different story. lol

[jasons2k]

Yes, the cold air will in fact go back to Siberia. That is a good thing. The reason it has been so cold is the Polar Vortex has been in Alaska. That vortex has allowed the pacific jet to be so strong, and create a fast, progressive flow across the US, not allowing ANY arctic air in. That Alaskan Vortex will finally move out, and with it goes the cold air, and the pac jet slows itself down, again thats a good thing. A ridge will build on the west coast, possibly a REX block, while a -NAO develops, and nice blocking near Greenland. This could help to create a cross-polar flow, as the polar vortex moves right down through Canada and into Hudson Bay.

This is basically what the GFS model has been showing for quite some time now. Now, I'm not saying it will be record cold in Feb, however, compared to what we have been seeing, the upcoming pattern change will probably shock the US.

I agree with what you see here, I've seen the same thing (part of my pros/cons list a few days back) but such a pattern isn't the most favorable to send the really cold air here - it will be in the Eastern US unless a trough can carve over the SW to spill some of it this direction - and that's not gonna happen with that ridge sitting there.

Also, the same model, in some runs, has had a split flow off the west coast, with the jet undercutting that ridge and still mostly zonal over Texas.

But who knows how it will all pan out. About the only 3 things I'm sure about is that 1) I'm still in the clear here for another week without freezes and 2) I'm preparing for bitter, frigid cold when I go to NYC next week 3) Spring will arrive, eventually. Whether or not it already has remains to be seen.

[Tyler]

Yes, the cold air will in fact go back to Siberia. That is a good thing. The reason it has been so cold is the Polar Vortex has been in Alaska. That vortex has allowed the pacific jet to be so strong, and create a fast, progressive flow across the US, not allowing ANY arctic air in. That Alaskan Vortex will finally move out, and with it goes the cold air, and the pac jet slows itself down, again thats a good thing. A ridge will build on the west coast, possibly a REX block, while a -NAO develops, and nice blocking near Greenland. This could help to create a cross-polar flow, as the polar vortex moves right down through Canada and into Hudson Bay.

This is basically what the GFS model has been showing for quite some time now. Now, I'm not saying it will be record cold in Feb, however, compared to what we have been seeing, the upcoming pattern change will probably shock the US.

I agree with what you see here, I've seen the same thing (part of my pros/cons list a few days back) but such a pattern isn't the most favorable to send the really cold air here - it will be in the Eastern US unless a trough can carve over the SW to spill some of it this direction - and that's not gonna happen with that ridge sitting there.

Also, the same model, in some runs, has had a split flow off the west coast, with the jet undercutting that ridge and still mostly zonal over Texas.

But who knows how it will all pan out. About the only 3 things I'm sure about is that 1) I'm still in the clear here for another week without freezes and 2) I'm preparing for bitter, frigid cold when I go to NYC next week 3) Spring will arrive, eventually. Whether or not it already has remains to be seen.

Even if the coldest air stays in the northeast, we will still feel some of the effects. Not saying that the majority will be in the northeast, who knows, we could get the brunt, however, what I am saying is that I believe we will have more winter-like temps for Feb, maybe even below average.

If we are under a zonal flow, the cold air may be so dense, as AFM has stated before, that it could just sink into Texas with a strong High Pressure system, as in Dec 1983, Feb 1989. Just pointing out possibilites, not saying thats going to happen.

And if your headed to NYC, you better be ready for some frigid temps! Hopefully you'll see a nice snowstorm during your visit!

[jasons2k]

Maybe that is why he goes by extremeweatherguy?

If he was regularweatherguy, we probably wouldn't see the same enthusiasm!

(Portastorm just trying to lighten the mood a little ...)

exactly. If weather was tranquil and mild all the time then where would the fun be? I like the extremes, they are always better than the normal. I would take a severe weather outbreak or a blizzard over sunny and 70 anyday...well unless I am on vacation or have to do something outside. Then it becomes a different story. lol

"props" to you for the enthusiasm. hehe. I don't like it boring either - I think I'd go nuts if I lived near, say, San Diego (sorry wxman91 hehe). The spring storm season is my favorite time of year. I can't wait. I admit, I'd love a blizzard too, just not at the casa. We'd surely lose power for a long time...I did it in '93 in Birmingham with 16", don't want to again

[aggiecutter]

When the artic oscillation went strongly negative in december, which it is forcast to do the next couple weeks, it sent the cold air straight down the plains.

[jasons2k]

If we are under a zonal flow, the cold air may be so dense, as AFM has stated before, that it could just sink into Texas with a strong High Pressure system, as in Dec 1983, Feb 1989. Just pointing out possibilites, not saying thats going to happen.

And if your headed to NYC, you better be ready for some frigid temps! Hopefully you'll see a nice snowstorm during your visit!

Yes, that was my "pro" #3 on my list, although I didn't go into the excellent detail of our friend AFM, those shallow knives of cold air can fool the models and undercut the mid-level flow.

And, yes I do hope to see some snow when I'm up there. That would be an excellent treat! As long as I can fly home on time

[WaitingForSiren]

This is my forecast for this whole deal. By arctic air, I mean very cold air, probably nothing record breaking though. [/url]

[WaitingForSiren]

ah it wont work, oh well just copy and paste that link to see my forecast.