Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Tyler]

Forecast seems reasonable to me with the cold, but don't know about the severe weather...

[WaitingForSiren]

Why not? I dunno the latest models seem to put the storm in a more favorable position for severe storms over lousiana and arkansas since itll be over texas in the morning, a not very favorable time.

[southerngale]

ah it wont work, oh well just copy and paste that link to see my forecast.

You left a space after .gif and before [/img]

I fixed it in your post.

[Tyler]

Why not? I dunno the latest models seem to put the storm in a more favorable position for severe storms over lousiana and arkansas since itll be over texas in the morning, a not very favorable time.

Models don't seem too impressive with the severe weather as they have been, but on second thought that severe weather area is alright.

[Rieyeuxs]

6-8 day forecast for Alabama does not show any servere weather. As for the cold, all I see it doing is pulling us back down to the seasonal average 58 degrees. JB is more generous with highs in the upper 40's starting around the 10th. Not much of a chance of precip with either...

[ETXHAMXYL]

OK Guys....love the debates on the weather but one factor you are not thinking about when it comes to predicting the weather.

Fact: And this is a Biggie.....Weather is Ruled by Mother Nature (FEMALE)

Haven't you realized that men will never understand Women much less the Weather? A Woman always has the right to change her mind... and will often do it just to keep you Men guessing. That is what Mother Nature does with Weather. As soon as you think you have this winter weather figured out with all of your maps, graphs, charts, figures, etc...she pulls a fast one on you and changes everything up...just to keep you guessing.

I know Im a woman and we women always like for men to think they know us, but to change things in mid stream just to keep things interesting...otherwise you'd get bored.



Here's what you should do....look outside and see what is happening and don't try to look into the future too far. Like the weather rock..if its wet its raining, if its icy then its cold and wet...etc...LOL

Just some light reading on a interesting thread...However tonight on Dallas channel 8 the two mets gave their predictions on the month of Feb. No pattern change...still above temps and below precp. for the rest of the month...they stated we're not biting on any pattern change this month.

[Extremeweatherguy]

0Z GFS looks cold for this weekend. Remember, this is now into the day 5 range, and is no longer a long-range event. If this comes to pass, then we will be pulling our long sleeves out again shortly..also the GFS is showing more moisture with the weekend front then earlier anticipated. Might even see a nice severe weather outbreak on Fri/Sat:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _114.shtml
^^Hr. 114 (less than 5 days)^^

Also, in the longer range, the 0Z GFS is really putting up a good ridge on the west coast which would lead to cold air spilling down into the central and eastern US. Çontinues to look more and more interesting, and now with cold expected in the 100-120 hr. time range (by the GFS and EURO) we will need to watch closely!

[PTrackerLA]

Now that's more interesting. It actually shows possible flurries in MS and AL all the way to the coast. We would definately be below freezing if that verified. Let's see if the GFS can be consistent with this.

[Brent]

The 0z Euro is much different from that extreme scenario(IMO)



That's as cold as it gets for Texas this weekend and that's not "cold" for Early February.

Though I believe it may be a little too warm...

After that the brunt of the cold gets forced east.

[Portastorm]

Like the GFS as of late, the Euro has not been consistent. Last night's 12z run dragged a HUGE trough across the southern Plains this weekend ... a trough that was very deep and very cold.

Models are struggling with this pattern.

[Kelarie]

Like the GFS as of late, the Euro has not been consistent. Last night's 12z run dragged a HUGE trough across the southern Plains this weekend ... a trough that was very deep and very cold.

Models are struggling with this pattern.

Didn't the models struggle with what happened in December?

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 6Z GFS is out, and here is a look at a few interesting things:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _042.shtml
^^Severe weather Wednesday night^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml
^^Looks like a "cooler" weekend on tap^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _252.shtml
^^Incoming arctic airmass..check out the next link to see the result^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml
^^Brrr..^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _312.shtml
^^Winter weather in TX in 312 hrs.^^

[AL Chili Pepper]

OK, I'm gonna have some fun with this while it lasts. Wouldn't this be a real slap on the knee after all this warm weather.

Mobile Forcast:
Saturday Night: A 10 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 25.

AFD.
STRONG COLD FRONT BLAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG STORMS...AGAIN SOME MAY BE SEVERE...A GENERAL LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWS THE FRONT. 1000-500K VALUES FORECAST BELOW 540 BEFORE THE RAIN STOPS WITH H8 VALES BELOW 0C./11

Birmingham AFD.
THE LATEST (31/00Z) RUN OF THE GFS IS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT MONSTER THAN YESTERDAY`S (30/00Z) RUN...REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE LATEST SOLUTION IS THAT OF A BIG DEEP LOW...PLACED IN SUCH A WAY THAT WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION IS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR DEPICTED BY THIS RUN OF THE GFS...THERE WOULD ALSO BE A POTENTIAL OF NOT ENTIRELY LIQUID PRECIP (HOW`S THAT FOR A EUPHEMISM) IN SAID WRAPAROUND PRECIP AREA.

Jackson, MS
...THE LIFT WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MAKE THE
MOST OF WHATEVER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE. AGAIN...HAVE JUST
FOLLOWED GUIDANCE ON POPS FRI AFTERNOON/FRI NIGHT UNTIL THINGS CAN BECOME MORE CLEAR. THE GFS DOES DEVELOP QUITE A LARGE AREA OF DEFORMATION PRECIP ACROSS THE NW/N. IF THINGS CAN WORK OUT JUST RIGHT...THIS COULD TURN OVER TO SNOW.

[Portastorm]

Food for thought.

Saw an interesting note on another weather board that the sudden stratrospheric warming that occurred 2 weeks ago was the warmest on record since 1979. Consequently the month of February 1979 for the southern Plains ... and Texas .... averaged 5-10 degrees colder than normal for the entire month. Nearly all of the nation ended that month well below normal.

HPC talks about this in its discussion:

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SCENARIO WHEREBY POSITIVE HT ANOMALIES
SPREAD FROM THE POLE INTO THE FAR NORTH ATL/ERN CANADA OVER THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PD...CAUSING AS A LARGE NEG HT
ANOMALY OVER THE BERING SEA TO SLOWLY SLIDE WWD. IN THE DAYS THAT
FOLLOW...BLOCKING OVER THE NORTH ATL SECTOR WILL RESULT IN A MEAN
RETROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WILL AT HIGH LATITUDES...WITH HTS
EVENTUALLY BUILDING OVER WRN NOAM LATE IN THE PD. THIS EVOLVING
PATTERN WILL SIGNAL A MAJOR TRANSITION TO THE WX PATTERN OVER
NORTH AMERICA...DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE MAJOR SUDDEN
STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT THAT OCCURRED ON 12 JANUARY.
INCIDENTALLY...THIS SUDDEN WARMING WAS ONE OF THE STRONGEST IN THE
OPERATIONAL RECORD SINCE 1979.

As well, the CPC mentions it and conflicting signals:

For Tuesday February 07 - Friday February 10: Colder temperatures for the CONUS are anticipated by later in February but the temperature forecast remains uncertain due to complicating factors: a stratospheric warming episode and maturing La Nina. A strong stratospheric warming event occurred recently and once the warming reaches the upper troposphere above normal heights become common in the higher latitudes. The combination of above normal heights at high latitudes and below normal heights at the middle latitudes is defined as a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). A negative AO is typically associated with below normal temperatures for parts of the Northern Hemisphere. A negative AO has finally developed, but currently the large reservoir of arctic air resides in the Eastern Hemisphere. The latest GFS ensemble mean suggests that cross polar flow may bring modified arctic air into the CONUS by mid-February. Elsewhere, a moderating temperature trend is expected for Alaska as the persistent area of below normal 500 mb heights retreats west. Otherwise, some drought relief may occur for the southern Plains and Midwest but drought will likely worsen in the Southwest.

[Air Force Met]

Well... I continue to say the cold is coming. The ensembles are consistant now in the time period...now roughy starting a little over a week from now. I still believe a majority of it goes to the east of SETX but looking at the latest ensembles there may be some possibilities of continued spill-down straight south in about 2 weeks. It was delayed some but I don't think that will be the case this time around.

I know there are some nay-sayers out there and I don't blame you...but I really have no doubts about the pattern shifting. The Canadian is very certain of it now as well. I give props to the Canadian as it held on to the Aleutian low and zonal flow when the GFS ensembles were going low zonal too early, but now they are matching up rather well in chaning the amplitude of the pattern. The CPC is coming around which leads me to believe they are seeing the same thign all the other mets are seeing...and I actually agree with where they are putting the colder probs...down the eastern half. They are also seeing the building ridge in AK, hence the above normal temps there and wetter trend.

So...the cross polar flow is coming and I think the coldest air is going east into the eastern US...still my guess.

[gboudx]

Well, I'll defer to you AFM since you are a professional met and will tell like it is. I know I won't get any -removed- from you. I'm probably one of the nay-sayers, but my problem all along has been the long-range nature of the forecasts and predictions posted on here concerning this arctic air. It seems like the forecast time period kept getting pushed further and further out. I'll continue to take a wait-and-see approach.

I'm an engineer by trade. It's tough for me to buy into the inconsistencies of the past month, because in my profession, you cannot derive trustworthy results. I guess it's a mindset thing.

[Brent]

Birmingham AFD.
THE LATEST (31/00Z) RUN OF THE GFS IS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT MONSTER THAN YESTERDAY`S (30/00Z) RUN...REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE LATEST SOLUTION IS THAT OF A BIG DEEP LOW...PLACED IN SUCH A WAY THAT WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION IS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR DEPICTED BY THIS RUN OF THE GFS...THERE WOULD ALSO BE A POTENTIAL OF NOT ENTIRELY LIQUID PRECIP (HOW`S THAT FOR A EUPHEMISM) IN SAID WRAPAROUND PRECIP AREA.

Believe it when I see it. That's how snow goes down here now.

[Brent]

The 6Z GFS is out, and here is a look at a few interesting things:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _042.shtml
^^Severe weather Wednesday night^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml
^^Looks like a "cooler" weekend on tap^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _252.shtml
^^Incoming arctic airmass..check out the next link to see the result^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml
^^Brrr..^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _312.shtml
^^Winter weather in TX in 312 hrs.^^

So now it's the weekend of the 11th before it gets really cold?

<not surprised>

[Air Force Met]

The 6Z GFS is out, and here is a look at a few interesting things:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _042.shtml
^^Severe weather Wednesday night^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml
^^Looks like a "cooler" weekend on tap^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _252.shtml
^^Incoming arctic airmass..check out the next link to see the result^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml
^^Brrr..^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _312.shtml
^^Winter weather in TX in 312 hrs.^^

So now it's the weekend of the 11th before it gets really cold?

<not surprised>

Actually...it's not "now"...it's been that way for 5 days. Since the 26/12z run of the GFS ensembles, it has shown the western ridgin building on the 6th (which starts the whole pattern shift)...and the max ridge/trough correlation occuring near the 11th and beyond. It has been very consistant. Every run has shown a massive ridge on teh 11th and a massive trough. That's 10 runs now...and 11 if you include the 12z which is now out.

So...it did shift and delay...but the delay occured and now all the factors are lined up...including the Canadian...which also shows the ridge buidling starting on the 7th...the Euro shows the ridge but weaker.

[gboudx]

If it's like December, then that's cold enough for me. At my house, I got a morning temp of 11 one day and at least 1 day it didn't get above 32. And we had freezing rain and sleet. That's plenty cold enough for me.