Iran Nuclear Standoff

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#81 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 30, 2006 4:12 pm

The rumor is that Iran will carry out a nuclear experiment in March...
Published: 1/29/2006







Teheran is getting ready to counter a “preemptive strike” by USA and Israel. The Air Force Command of the Revolutionary Guard has ordered its Shahap-3 Missile Units to keep their mobile missile ramps in motion in preparation for such an attack. Responding to this order, in darkness of the night the primary missile ramps have been moved to Kirmanshah and Hamedan, and the reserve ramps to Isfahan and Fars regions.
The above actions are the basis for the efforts of the USA to attract Russia and China, as well as Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt to its side, and for commenting that a military intervention is always on the table. These actions are also the basis for Israel’s overt preparation for a possible offensive action and for making authoritative announcements that it “will not permit Iran” to proceed with its nuclear plans. Suddenly, all these activities have created a renewed global atmosphere of war. They are spreading anxiety and paranoia.

Israel is the only nuclear power in the Middle East. It has never accepted any international agreement on nuclear weapons, and has never allowed inspections of its nuclear facilities. Yet, it is aggressively beating the war drums as if Iran is the country involved in nuclear development in the area. What kind of innocence is this?

Attacks to selected centers in Iran are foreseen to take place sometime in March-June.

Even the Pope called upon Russia and China, requesting that they reconsider the subject of Iran. Iran can do what the Arab countries cannot: withdrawing its funds deposited at Western banks and moving them to Asian banks.

Somehow, big steps are seemingly being taken toward a war. According to them, just two months remain. Within the next two months, confusing allegations will resonate as to how much of a threat Iran has become.

So, why was the month of March chosen? What is behind the prediction that Iran will carry out a nuclear experiment in March? In other words, why are the USA and Israel drawing global attention to the month of March? Why are Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia being pushed into a race of weapons build-up by bringing up the possibility that they may also acquire nuclear weapons?

Because, there is another event expected to occur in March, which could have an impact on the economy of the USA equivalent to a nuclear attack: in March, Teheran will implement its 2004 decision that it will start using the Euro instead of the Dollar in its petroleum trade, establishing a petroleum market, and breaking the “petrodollar” monopoly. Iran will open its petroleum market in March. Euro will replace Dollar in the petroleum trade. This will constitute a major attack on a vital component of the American Empire. Once the decision is implemented, a real debate will start on this doomsday scenario for the American economy.

Thereafter, the monopoly of USA/United Kingdom in international petroleum trade will collapse. The petroleum markets in New York and London will receive a heavy blow. The International Petroleum Market in London and the New York Mercantile Exchange controlled by the Americans are in a state of panic.

The Iranian position is being supported by the Chinese. The Japanese are also inclined to switch to Euro; this way, they could lower their Dollar reserves.

What are the implications of the widespread switch to the Euro, and the preference of Russia, European Union, Japan and some of the Arab countries to use the Euro in petroleum trade? What would happen if Russia that has major trade relations with Europe, China and Japan were to start using the Euro in the energy market? What would happen if the petroleum-producing Arab countries would also see the Euro as the alternative to compensate for the loss of Dollar’s value? Indeed, loss of Dollar’s value will force many countries to prefer the Euro.

This scenario will progressively lead to a profitable business.

If these issues were to lead to an escape from the Dollar, and dramatically reduce the flow of money to the USA, what will be the shape of the American economy?

There lies the wisdom of the month of March. This danger hides behind the hullabaloo that Iran will conduct a nuclear experiment in March. An Iranian petroleum market that is indexed on the Euro is more dangerous for the USA than any nuclear weapon.

The USA, which is working on controlling global petroleum markets under the label of “fighting terrorism” is actually fighting an economic war. However, as it becomes more and more aggressive, it is sinking deeper and deeper...


Above is the information about what Iran is planning to do in March.
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#82 Postby LSU2001 » Mon Jan 30, 2006 8:04 pm

[quote="cycloneye"][b]The rumor is that Iran will carry out a nuclear experiment in March...

Source Please Cycloneye
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#83 Postby LSU2001 » Mon Jan 30, 2006 8:10 pm

Try out this article for better explanation.
Tim

http://blogs.washingtonpost.com/earlywa ... n_wer.html :eek:
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#84 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 30, 2006 8:15 pm

lsu2001 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:[b]The rumor is that Iran will carry out a nuclear experiment in March...

Source Please Cycloneye


Oh I forgot to post the source.Here is the link.

http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=105626
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#85 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 31, 2006 5:59 am

LONDON - The United States and the other four permanent members of the U.N. Security Council reached surprising agreement Tuesday that Iran should be hauled before that powerful body over its disputed nuclear program.

China and Russia, longtime allies and trading partners of Iran, signed on to a statement that calls on the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, to transfer the Iran dossier to the Security Council, which could impose sanctions or take other harsh action.

The IAEA meets in Vienna on Thursday.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11105378/

Now things get more interesting as Russia and China join the U.S,UK,France and Germany on sending Iran to the security council.
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#86 Postby LSU2001 » Tue Jan 31, 2006 9:58 am

I think that we need to gain a historical perspective on the Iranian president. Remember that when he was elected there was an outcry about him being one of the captors that held the American Embassy hostages. If he was one of the "revolutionaries" that stormed and held the American hostages, then his frame of reference when dealing with the US is that the US is weak and will not respond quickly. Many dictators make the mistake of using their own experience as a primary guide when making decisions ,ie Saddam. In my opinion the Iranian president is playing a game of delay and bluff designed to hold off American intervention until he has a nuclear weapon at his disposal. His experience tells him that the US can be bullied and intimidated into inaction. I think that if the US does not act and soon Iran will gain a weapon and therefore fill the power vacume created by the fall of Iraq. If Iran gains that position of power in the middle east then the entire region is in danger of falling under Shia control, Remember the Shia and Sunni branches of Islam have been fighting for many centuries. Iran in a pre-emminet position of power in the Middle East is in my opinon a political and economic disaster for both the middle east and the west.
There is no good option, only options that are "less dangerous" I truly feel that based upon history and in particular the history of the Iranian president we are truly headed towards another war.

JMHO,
Tim
sorry about the poor spelling and grammer,
:oops:
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#87 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Jan 31, 2006 10:25 am

Well thought out post. Thanks for your angle on it. Sounds very reasonable unfortunately.
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#88 Postby wxcrazytwo » Tue Jan 31, 2006 12:28 pm

Unfortunately, I think this is where it will wind up. The bad thing about it is that whatever happens everyone is a loser, because the implications are going to be catastrophic...
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#89 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 31, 2006 12:36 pm

lsu2001 wrote:I think that we need to gain a historical perspective on the Iranian president. Remember that when he was elected there was an outcry about him being one of the captors that held the American Embassy hostages. If he was one of the "revolutionaries" that stormed and held the American hostages, then his frame of reference when dealing with the US is that the US is weak and will not respond quickly. Many dictators make the mistake of using their own experience as a primary guide when making decisions ,ie Saddam. In my opinion the Iranian president is playing a game of delay and bluff designed to hold off American intervention until he has a nuclear weapon at his disposal. His experience tells him that the US can be bullied and intimidated into inaction. I think that if the US does not act and soon Iran will gain a weapon and therefore fill the power vacume created by the fall of Iraq. If Iran gains that position of power in the middle east then the entire region is in danger of falling under Shia control, Remember the Shia and Sunni branches of Islam have been fighting for many centuries. Iran in a pre-emminet position of power in the Middle East is in my opinon a political and economic disaster for both the middle east and the west.
There is no good option, only options that are "less dangerous" I truly feel that based upon history and in particular the history of the Iranian president we are truly headed towards another war.

JMHO,
Tim
sorry about the poor spelling and grammer,
:oops:


You haved nailed the real truth of all about this very dangerous situation.That is a good analysis of all the options that the U.S has which are not good.
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#90 Postby JTD » Tue Jan 31, 2006 7:18 pm

It will be interesting to see what President Bush says in the S.O.T.U. tonight about this.
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#91 Postby canegrl04 » Tue Jan 31, 2006 9:26 pm

I am praying for a resolution to this escalating situation that doesn't involve military action.Right now,it seems the leader of Iran is playing a game of chicken.Will he back down,or continue to thumb his nose at the US?If they do have a nuke and plan to test it in March,theres no way we can prevent a war :(
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#92 Postby gtalum » Tue Jan 31, 2006 9:27 pm

jason0509 wrote:It will be interesting to see what President Bush says in the S.O.T.U. tonight about this.


Just like with last year's SOTU, I'm sure he'll say a bunch of stuff that has very little in common with reality. :)
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#93 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 01, 2006 2:12 pm

NASHVILLE, Tennessee (Reuters) - U.S. President George W. Bush vowed on Wednesday the United States will rise to Israel's defense if needed against Iran and denounced Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for "menacing talk" against Israel.

In a Reuters interview aboard Air Force One en route to Nashville, Bush also said he saw a "very good chance" that the governing board of the International Atomic Energy Agency will refer Iran to the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions.

"I am concerned about a person that, one, tries to rewrite the history of the Holocaust, and two, has made it clear that his intentions are to destroy Israel," Bush said.

"Israel is a solid ally of the United States, we will rise to Israel's defense if need be. So this kind of menacing talk is disturbing. It's not only disturbing to the United States, it's disturbing for other countries in the world as well," he added.

Asked if he meant the United States would rise to Israel's defense militarily, Bush said: "You bet, we'll defend Israel."

Ahmadinejad has prompted international condemnation for anti-Israel rhetoric in recent weeks, including saying it should be wiped off the map, and also calling into question the Holocaust.

Iran is engaged in a stand-off over its nuclear program. Tehran insists its program is aimed at developing nuclear power and the United States and other international powers charge it is seeking to develop nuclear weapons.

Asked if he thought the IAEA will refer Iran to the Security Council, Bush said: "The IAEA must take a look at the facts, and listen carefully to the arguments, and there's a very good chance it will."

The council's five permanent members, including a reluctant Russia and China, this week agreed to ask the U.N. nuclear watchdog to report Iran to New York immediately.

Bush also said he had spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin about Iran and would not say how Putin feels about a Security Council referral. "He understands the threat, and we share the same goal," he said.

The IAEA's governing board will decide at an emergency meeting in Vienna on Thursday whether to report Iran to the Security Council.



Ummm the U.S would go and defend Israel from any attack that Iran may launch.This is getting more serious as time goes by.Thanks to this Iran standoff oil is spiking higher.
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#94 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 01, 2006 2:40 pm

http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast ... index.html

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

New revelations about Irans nuke ambitions that surely will make the situation more troubeling.

Image

Above is a photo of one of the plants that the U.S says is making the nukes.
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#95 Postby JTD » Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:11 pm

cycloneye wrote:[b]NASHVILLE, Tennessee (Reuters) -
Bush also said he had spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin about Iran and would not say how Putin feels about a Security Council referral. "He understands the threat, and we share the same goal," he said.


I doubt that. Russia and China seem to have little interest in preventing the madmen of the world from acquring WMD.
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#96 Postby LSU2001 » Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:42 am

Though this is an opinion article I believe that it has merit and a certain ring of truth to it. It certainly makes me think about possible scenarios.
Tim
SPEAKING FREELY
Iran and the jaws of a trap
By Paul Levian

Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.

Judging from the rather frantic behind-the-scenes efforts of Russia and China in Iran, they seem to appreciate that the Iranian leadership is in for a big and probably deadly surprise. The Bush administration has not only handled its Iran dossier much more skillfully than Iraq, but also managed to set up Iran for a war it can neither win nor fight to a draw.

If the Iranian leaders think they can deter an attack because the




US is bogged down in Iraq they are already between the jaws of a well-set trap. Though a Western war against Iran will be a big geopolitical defeat for Russia and China, they cannot but resign themselves to this outcome if they are unable to convince the Iranians to accept the Russian proposal - ie uranium enrichment in Russia.

The Russians saw the writing on the wall when France, Germany and Britain began to march in lockstep with the United States. In particular, the widely but wrongly discounted nuclear belligerence of President Jacques Chirac last month implied that France was ready to accept the US use of nuclear weapons in a war against Iran if they saw fit to do so.

The Iranian leadership's obvious confidence in its ability to deter the US, Britain and Israel seems to rest on mainly four assumptions. Iran is militarily much stronger than Iraq, much larger, its terrain more difficult, its society more cohesive - thus more difficult to defeat, to occupy and to pacify. In addition, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad seems to take particular comfort from the widely anticipated wave of popular outrage and anti-Western attacks in the wider Middle East if Iran should be attacked.

Moreover, the economic costs of a war against Iran in terms of the price of oil and the interruption of the Iranian supply would propel the world economy into a tailspin. And finally, Iranian leaders seem to accept at face value the US moans over its overstretched military forces and the demoralization of US forces in Iraq.

Certainly, Iranian misconceptions are helped mightily by the defeatism of the Western debate about such a war. "No good options" has become something like the consensus view: an airborne and special forces "surgical strike" (as well as a massive attack) against the Iranian nuclear industry and military targets could at best delay its nuclear program and will be followed by retaliation in Iraq, Lebanon etc; a ground attack is out of the question because most of deployable US ground forces are desperately busy in Iraq.

If such things could be planned, one might be persuaded to consider this debate as an aspect of strategic deception. In fact, the US and British forces in Iraq and in the Persian Gulf as well as the forces in Afghanistan are quite able to redeploy on short notice, for example during the days of an initial air campaign against Iran for large-scale operations against the remaining Iranian forces and can be reinforced during the war. The US military infrastructure at the borders of Iran has a very substantial capability to deal with surge requirements.

The somewhat standard scenario for this war - as indicated by Chinese and Russian war games - has the following features:

An initial Israeli air attack against some Iranian nuclear targets, command and control targets and Shahab missile sites. Iran retaliates with its remaining missiles, tries to close the Gulf, attacks US naval assets and American and British forces in Iraq. If Iranian missiles have chemical warheads (in fact or presumed), the US will immediately use nuclear weapons to destroy the Iranian military and industrial infrastructure. If not, an air campaign of up to two weeks will prepare the ground campaign for the occupation of the Iranian oil and gas fields.

Mass mobilization in Iraq against US-British forces will be at most a nuisance - easily suppressed by the ruthless employment of massive firepower. And Israel will use the opportunity to deal with Syria and South Lebanon, and possibly with its Palestinian problem.

The character of this war will be completely different from the Iraq war. No show-casing of democracy, no "nation-building", no journalists, no Red Cross - but the kind of war the United States would have fought in North Vietnam if it had not had to reckon with the Soviet Union and China.

Paul Levian is a former German intelligence officer.

(Copyright 2006 Paul Levian.)

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HB03Ak02.html
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#97 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 02, 2006 2:45 pm

WASHINGTON (AP) - National Intelligence Director John Negroponte told Congress on Thursday that Iran probably does not yet have nuclear weapons, nor has it obtained the material central to producing them.

Still, Negroponte called Iran's nuclear program a matter of "highest concern." In prepared testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee, he said that Iran and North Korea are both major threats to U.S. security.

Negroponte raised the possibility that Iran "will acquire a North Korea weapon and the ability to integrate it with the ballistic missile Iran already possesses."

Negroponte spoke as U.S. and European diplomats worked behind the scenes to build support for their decision to report Iran to the U.N. Security Council over concerns that it seeking nuclear weapons.

The International Atomic Energy Agency's 35-nation board of governors began a two-day meeting on a European draft resolution calling for Tehran to be referred to the Security Council, which can impose sanctions.


No evidence that Iran has nuclear weapons now but read above and you will see why there is a big concern about Irans ambitions to have nukes.
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#98 Postby x-y-no » Thu Feb 02, 2006 2:56 pm

The Russians saw the writing on the wall when France, Germany and Britain began to march in lockstep with the United States. In particular, the widely but wrongly discounted nuclear belligerence of President Jacques Chirac last month implied that France was ready to accept the US use of nuclear weapons in a war against Iran if they saw fit to do so.



Ahem. Those who recall my posts when we had a political forum know that I'm no fan of this administration. I only mention this to make clear that the following is not based on any political bias of mine.

There is no way on Earth that we use nuclear weapons in Iran (or anywhere else) short of them being used on us (or an ally) first. I know we don't explicitly state a no-first-use policy, but nonetheless it is and will remain our policy.
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#99 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:41 pm

AP Iran remains defiant.

In a last-minute warning, Tehran's chief nuclear negotiator told IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei that his country would severely curtail agency inspections and resume uranium enrichment if reported to the council.

Ali Larijani, in a letter made available to the AP, said referral would leave Iran no choice but "to suspend all the voluntary measures and extra cooperation" with the IAEA - shorthand for reducing IAEA monitoring to a minimum.

Furthermore, "all the peaceful nuclear activities being under voluntary suspension would be resumed without any restriction," said the letter, suggesting a resumption of work on full-scale uranium enrichment - a possible pathway to nuclear arms.

Iran has made such threats before. What was significant this time, however, was that the warnings were in the form of a formal notification to the head of the IAEA.


This standoff is escalating to a very dangerous period .Hopefully as I haved been saying in posts here the people in Iran start a movement to boot that tyrant person who is leading that country now.
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#100 Postby canegrl04 » Fri Feb 03, 2006 9:51 am

London Telegraph is reporting that Tehran possesses the largest arsenal of ballistic missiles in the Middle East :eek: Also,Iran is threatening to reject Russia's deal to process their nuke energy for them,which tells me,they are exposing the fact that they ARE trying to make nuke weapons. This isn't going to go down pretty if it results in military confrontation
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