Tropical cyclone 09s

[Coredesat]

30/1430 UTC 18.1S 42.7E T1.5/1.5 BOLOETSE

Numbers hold at T1.5.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 302030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/242121ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.1S 42.7E TO 20.0S 40.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 301730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.2S 42.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 18.2S 42.5E, APPROXIMATELY 260
NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITH
CONVECTION INCREASING IN THE VICINITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SUR-
FACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTION AND AN INCREAS-
INGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 312030Z.



TRYING TO REORGANIZE!

[Coredesat]

31/0230 UTC 18.6S 41.1E T2.5/2.5 BOLOETSE

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical storm again

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


ZONE PERTURBEE EX-BOLOETSE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1005 HPA.
POSITION LE 31 JANVIER A 04 HEURES LOCALES: 18.0 SUD / 41.5 EST
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE ET UN DEGRES CINQ EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1480 KM A L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST A 9 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 19.9S/39.1E
DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 21.1S/36.7E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 22.9S/36.9E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

[P.K.]

Back to a TD and forecast to reach TC strength again while heading back towards Madagascar.

BULLETIN DU 31 JANVIER A 10H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

DEPRESSION TROPICALE EX-BOLOETSE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 999 HPA.
POSITION LE 31 JANVIER A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 19.5 SUD / 40.4 EST
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES QUATRE EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1555 KM A L'OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST A 7 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 19.7S/38.7E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 21.2S/37.4E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 23S/38E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
IL SERA REACTUALISE A 16H30 LOCALES.

[Coredesat]

Still no reupgrade from the JTWC:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULA-
TION OF TC 09S PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 42.8E, IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 18.2S 42.5E , APPROXIMATELY 260 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MAD-
AGASCAR, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN
THE VICINITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS
IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE EST-
IMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTION AND AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD

[P.K.]

BULLETIN DU 31 JANVIER A 16H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

DEPRESSION TROPICALE EX-BOLOETSE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 999 HPA.
POSITION LE 31 JANVIER A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 20.2 SUD / 39.5 EST
(VINGTS DEGRES DEUX SUD ET TRENTE-NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1640 KM A L'OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 14 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 21.3S/38E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 22.6S/38E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 24S/39.5E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.


CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
IL SERA REACTUALISE CETTE NUIT A 22H30

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 010
WTXS31 PGTW 312100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 20.0S 38.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 38.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.5S 37.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.9S 36.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 21.3S 36.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 21.8S 36.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 23.9S 37.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 38.6E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.


BACK IN BUSINESS!

[P.K.]

BULLETIN DU 31 JANVIER A 22H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BOLOETSE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 995 HPA.
POSITION LE 31 JANVIER A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 20.1 SUD / 38.5 EST
(VINGTS DEGRES UN SUD ET TRENTE-HUIT DEGRES CINQ EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1745 KM A L'OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST A 12 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 21.8S/37.6E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 23.9S/39.5E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 25.6S/43.2E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
REACTUALISATION MERCREDI 01 FEVRIER 2006 A 04H30 LOCALES

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 20.0S 38.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 38.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.2S 38.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.7S 37.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.1S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.7S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 24.3S 39.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 38.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY
A BROAD BUT WEAK 700 MB RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN THE NEARLY STATIONARY
MOVEMENT OF THE STORM OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND REORIENT MERIDIONALLY, RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN SPEED TO THE SOUTHWEST FOLLOWED BY A SLOW TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE STORM IS BENEFITING FROM A LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A DEVELOPING OUT-
FLOW CHANNEL INTO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF MADAGASCAR
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.



BOLOETSE IS COMING BACK TO LIFE!

[Coredesat]

WTXS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 19.2S 38.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 38.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.9S 37.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.9S 36.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.6S 36.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.9S 37.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 25.0S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 37.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09S REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO RIDGES ON THE EAST AND WEST RESPECTIVELY.
THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM BY TAU 24, AS 09S BEGINS TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE STORM CONTINUES TO BENEFIT FROM A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AN EXISTING
OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF MADAGASCAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//

NNNN

[P.K.]

35kts

BULLETIN DU 01 FEVRIER A 16H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BOLOETSE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 995 HPA.
POSITION LE 01 FEVRIER A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 19.1 SUD / 38.1 EST
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET TRENTE-HUIT DEGRES UN EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1800 KM A L'OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 18.9S/37.4E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 21.1S/38.9E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 23.2S/40.9E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.

[Coredesat]

More strengthening forecast:

WTXS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 19.2S 38.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 38.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.5S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.8S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.3S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 21.2S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 23.4S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 38.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE LAST 18
HOURS INDICATE THAT TC 09S IS BEGINNING TO LOOP CYCLONICALLY. THE
STORM REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE COMPETING
INFLUENCE OF RIDGES TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE. A TRANSIENT
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY POLEWARD OF TC 09S IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ALTER THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH 36 HOURS. AS A SECONDARY TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY 48 HOURS,
THE EASTERN STEERING RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN, AND TC 09S
SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG ITS SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z
AND 022100Z.//

NNNN

[P.K.]

BULLETIN DU 01 FEVRIER A 22H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BOLOETSE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 995 HPA.
POSITION LE 01 FEVRIER A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 19.0 SUD / 38.3 EST
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET TRENTE-HUIT DEGRES TROIS EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1780 KM A L'OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 19.5S/38.8E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 21.3S/39.9E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 23.6S/42.4E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
IL SERA REACTUALISE CETTE NUIT A 04H30 LOCALES

[James]

Boloetse seems to have an eye now. That was quick!

[HURAKAN]

YEAH, THAT WAS QUICK! A CLEAR EYE HAS DEVELOPED SURROUNDED BY A SOLID MASS OF CONVECTION.

[HURAKAN]

A "HURRICANE" HAS BEEN BORN!

20060202.0100.meteo5.x.ir1km_bw.09SBOLOETSE.65kts-976mb-194S-386E.jpg

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

LOOKING GOOD!