Balmy month one for the record books

[TexasStooge]

By DAVID FLICK / The Dallas Morning News

Could it happen: A Year Without a Winter?

There are reasons for North Texans to begin asking the question this week, which marks the midpoint of what is usually the year's coldest season.

The daily high temperatures during January were, on average, the warmest ever for the month – 68.3 degrees, a figure that broke an 83-year-old record. The normal high is 54.

A cold snap hit in early December, but since winter officially began Dec. 21, there have been only three days when the high was below normal. And there was only one hour – around daybreak Jan. 14 – when the official thermometer at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport fell below freezing.

Needless to say, there has been no winter snow or ice.

"We're kind of stuck in a rut," said Jennifer Dunn, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Fort Worth. "It really has been a year without winter, and it's not likely to change soon."

Although February is expected to be less consistently warm than January, the long-term forecast calls for higher-than-normal temperatures in North Texas through April, according to the weather service's Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md. Drought conditions are expected to persist as well.

This could be good news for owners of flowering plants and trees. Or not.

"Usually, we have a red-light/green-light situation around here, where it gets warm for a while, then it gets cold. But this year it's all been green light," said Dave Forehand, who is in charge of plantings at the Dallas Arboretum.

"The problem is that it's been so warm that they're all ready to go."

The arboretum's Japanese magnolias, which usually bloom in mid- or late February, are in full glory.

That's fine, as long as the weather stays warm. This week, he said, marks the point of no return. Buds are far enough along that a cold snap would damage them.

At the Dallas Zoo, the warm weather – connected with unusually dry conditions – has been a boost. December and January had the highest attendance in a decade.

"The drought brought a flood of business," zoo spokeswoman Susan Eckert said.

Higher-than-normal temperatures can mean misery during most of the year in North Texas. In winter, they make for pleasant strolling.

"It was a good time for people who don't like the heat to come out to the zoo to see all the new exhibits they may have been hearing about throughout the year," Ms. Eckert said.

For the last six weeks, a west-to-east jet stream has carried warm Pacific winds across much of the U.S. and buffered North Texas from northerly cold fronts, said Mike Halpert, a Climate Prediction Center meteorologist.

Although the next few months are expected to be warmer than normal, Mr. Halpert cautions that long-range forecasts don't preclude short-term variations.

"It looks like the jet stream is ready to resume a more typical weather pattern," he said. "You're probably going to have some cooler-than-normal periods in North Texas in February."

For now, the forecast calls for highs in the 60s and 70s through the weekend. There is a slight chance of rain Wednesday and Friday.

Dr. Cynthia McKenney, an urban horticulturist with the Cooperative Extension Program, said the warm weather is aggravating the effect of the drought by causing any moisture in dry soils to evaporate more quickly.

If you have a sprinkler system, she said, use it.

Your boxwoods will love it – but then so will your roaches.

The warm winter has done nothing to suppress the bug population, said Rusty Burgher, co-owner of R&B Pest Control in Garland. But the drought should work to keep down their numbers.

"In many cases, it will boil down to whether people have a sprinkler system," said Mr. Burgher, an exterminator for 25 years.

The moisture may mean a spring crop of both smoky brown and American roaches, he said.

But he won't know for sure until spring.

"To tell the truth, we'll just have to wait to see," he said. "I've never seen a winter like this in my entire career."
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WINNERS, LOSERS:

The warm, dry winter is good news for:
• Zoo attendance
• Japanese magnolias
• Grasshoppers
• Ticks

And could be bad news for:
• Tulips
• Peach crops
• Fleas
• Mosquitoes