To be blunt is the cold air really coming or just hype

[boca]

I believe that the warming of the stratosphere has to do with building of the cold air but isn't the pacific jet so strong that it doesn't really allow for the southward push of the colder air. Will the pacific jet relax enough to allow this cold air to drop in the lower 48 or will it just stay bottled up in Canada. Professional mets please reply too.

[southerngale]

Air Force Met addressed the cold air today on pages 20 and 21.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=380

If you don't want to read those long threads, which is logical because a lot of it is old info, check the last few pages. You can usually find your answer.

[jimvb]

It's hard to tell if an arctic outbreak is coming. All the NOAA forecasts for Richmond, Va, for instance, call for highs in the 40s and 50s, but the maps call for a tongue of arctic air to head south this weekend. The question is where the 0 degree line will be at, say, hour 126 of the 2006 Feb 1 12Z run. The 6-hour precip map shows it to go through Charleston:



The hour 126 map of this site shows the 0 degree line going through Charleston:




The only problem is that it's not the same Charleston. The first one is South Carolina, the second West Virginia. That makes a big difference for us here in Richmond. One means snow, the other means rain. So which is the real GFS?[/img]

[Scorpion]

Nothing for Florida in the near future at least. It's getting a little late to have a arctic outbreak here(highs in the 40s/50s).

[Extremeweatherguy]

WOW! Look at this cold on the 12Z GFS:


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml
^^The beginning of the pattern change. 72 hrs^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _204.shtml
^^Nice shot of cold in 204 hrs.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml
^^Frozen Precip. in Houston in 276 hrs?^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _288.shtml
^^Lots of cold air in 288 hrs.^^

[MGC]

NWS New Orleans has raised the min temps next week by a good 7-8 degrees since yesterday's long range forecast. Typical GFS cold bias in the long run.....MGC

[Brent]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_276.shtml
^^Frozen Precip. in Houston in 276 hrs?^^

WOW... snow here as well.

*Yawn* How many times have I seen snow on the GFS for me that far in advance that never happens.

I do agree it's going to turn colder though.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_276.shtml
^^Frozen Precip. in Houston in 276 hrs?^^

WOW... snow here as well.

*Yawn* How many times have I seen snow on the GFS for me that far in advance that never happens.

I do agree it's going to turn colder though.

lol. yeah I would not trust the long range GFS...but it is fun to look at. Here is the latest look at the 18Z run:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_066.shtml
^^Change starts this weekend^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml
^^Cold in 192hrs.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _300.shtml
^^Incoming arctic front! 300 hrs.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml
^^Widespread cold in 15 days^^

[Tyler]

The 18z GFS would be fun. However, most likely not to happen.

[jimvb]

Extremeweatherguy, the second of the maps I displayed on my last post does not have ANY unusual cold in it. The 0 line is well north of Virginia and the South. That is what I am pointing out. The maps you refer to show a rather cold tongue of air bombing down just about 3 days from now. But the official NOAA forecasts and my second map don't show this at all. That is what I mean by the 0 line crosses Charleston. Charleston, West Virginia is not Charleston, South Carolina, and those two 0 lines are not the same, either, and they contradict each other. So what are we to believe? This is not just one model versus another. It is GFS vs GFS.

[boca]

If the cold air is coming how come none of the offices are picking on on it except Dallas. Here in Florida it just says cooler which is just seasonal. We should just suck it up and say this winter is a bust until I see proof of this colder air coming down from Canada from Feb 5th -15th time frame.


RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BY SATURDAY AND STORM
TRACK MOVES FARTHER NORTH. THIS MAKES US A DRIER AGAIN AND ONLY
AREAS OF POSSIBLE PRECIP ARE IN THE NORTHEAST...ON FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING. THESE ARE STILL LOW POP EVENTS AND MOST
PRECIP WILL STAY IN OK/AR/LA. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WE GET INTO SOME PRETTY
GOOD NORTH FLOW AND WE MAY HAVE SOME WINTRY AIR SPILLING SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THURSDAY THE 9TH OR
FRIDAY THE 10TH. DON/T PLANT THOSE TOMATOES JUST YET... 84

[Brent]

If the cold air is coming how come none of the offices are picking on on it except Dallas. Here in Florida it just says cooler which is just seasonal. We should just suck it up and say this winter is a bust until I see proof of this colder air coming down from Canada from Feb 5th -15th time frame.

I don't think it'll get that cold in Florida... certainly not record-breaking. I also do NOT expect record-breaking cold anywhere in the South either. Yes, below normal and cold, but it is February, so it's not unusual.

[HURRICANELONNY]

The jet should dip pretty far south in the Gulf the end of the weekend. Looking good for Super Sunday with highs probably only 65f here in south Fl. Pretty cool for us. 30's inland at night are a good guess monday, tuesday time frame. The good thing a reinforcer will come in mid week here.http://www.wunderground.com/Displa ... Lauderdale

[boca]

THE GOOD NEWS IS DESPITE THE COOLER AIR...THERE IS STILL NO ARCTIC
AIR SOURCE AND THAT SHOULD PRETTY MUCH LOCK UP THE WINTER OF `06 WITHOUT
ANY HARD FREEZES.

That was taken out of the Tampa discussion office winter is closed.

[Extremeweatherguy]

THE GOOD NEWS IS DESPITE THE COOLER AIR...THERE IS STILL NO ARCTIC
AIR SOURCE AND THAT SHOULD PRETTY MUCH LOCK UP THE WINTER OF `06 WITHOUT
ANY HARD FREEZES.

That was taken out of the Tampa discussion office winter is closed.

I would not be so sure. If JB is right..then he is calling for at least one morning of 26 or below in Tampa before Feb. ends. I wouldn't give up hope just yet.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I predict that this will be Winter's last major gasp (at least temp wise) across most of North America.

[jasons2k]

THE GOOD NEWS IS DESPITE THE COOLER AIR...THERE IS STILL NO ARCTIC
AIR SOURCE AND THAT SHOULD PRETTY MUCH LOCK UP THE WINTER OF `06 WITHOUT
ANY HARD FREEZES.

That was taken out of the Tampa discussion office winter is closed.

I would not be so sure. If JB is right..then he is calling for at least one morning of 26 or below in Tampa before Feb. ends. I wouldn't give up hope just yet.

I read MCO which is Orlando International. Tampa would be warmer than that.

[Extremeweatherguy]

THE GOOD NEWS IS DESPITE THE COOLER AIR...THERE IS STILL NO ARCTIC
AIR SOURCE AND THAT SHOULD PRETTY MUCH LOCK UP THE WINTER OF `06 WITHOUT
ANY HARD FREEZES.

That was taken out of the Tampa discussion office winter is closed.

I would not be so sure. If JB is right..then he is calling for at least one morning of 26 or below in Tampa before Feb. ends. I wouldn't give up hope just yet.

I read MCO which is Orlando International. Tampa would be warmer than that.

JB says Tampa and Orlando

[jasons2k]

THE GOOD NEWS IS DESPITE THE COOLER AIR...THERE IS STILL NO ARCTIC
AIR SOURCE AND THAT SHOULD PRETTY MUCH LOCK UP THE WINTER OF `06 WITHOUT
ANY HARD FREEZES.

That was taken out of the Tampa discussion office winter is closed.

I would not be so sure. If JB is right..then he is calling for at least one morning of 26 or below in Tampa before Feb. ends. I wouldn't give up hope just yet.

I read MCO which is Orlando International. Tampa would be warmer than that.

JB says Tampa and Orlando

Well I didn't see that, I just saw MCO and MFE, Orlando Int'l and Harlingen. If he thinks 26 in Tampa as well I just think he's dug his hole deeper IMO.

FWIW I think the FL sites he mentioned have a better chance of hitting his numbers than Harlingen, but I still doubt it'll happen.

[Extremeweatherguy]

THE GOOD NEWS IS DESPITE THE COOLER AIR...THERE IS STILL NO ARCTIC
AIR SOURCE AND THAT SHOULD PRETTY MUCH LOCK UP THE WINTER OF `06 WITHOUT
ANY HARD FREEZES.

That was taken out of the Tampa discussion office winter is closed.

I would not be so sure. If JB is right..then he is calling for at least one morning of 26 or below in Tampa before Feb. ends. I wouldn't give up hope just yet.

I read MCO which is Orlando International. Tampa would be warmer than that.

JB says Tampa and Orlando

Well I didn't see that, I just saw MCO and MFE, Orlando Int'l and Harlingen. If he thinks 26 in Tampa as well I just think he's dug his hole deeper IMO.

FWIW I think the FL sites he mentioned have a better chance of hitting his numbers than Harlingen, but I still doubt it'll happen.

i don't know. Sometimes Tampa tends to be a little cooler than Orlando. I remember when I lived in Orlando Tampa would sometimes be 36 and we would be 41...but then other times we would be 36 and they would be 41. I think it really just depends on the situation. But, usually when one gets below 30, the other one will hit freezing or below too.