Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Tyler]

Interesting Brent.

Feb 1979 was cold for Texas, Houston had several hard freezes, however, the bitterly cold stuff went east of here.

[jasons2k]

Portastorm, with the AO forcast to go strongly negative in the medium range, the CPC probably has nailed where the brunt of the coldest air will come initially, the plains. From past experience and looking at the models, I think there'll be a couple minor intrusions of arctic air next week into the southern plains. Then, early the following week, the motherload will come down.

Agreed!

This scenario is what Air Force Met suggested would happen. Accuwx's JB also has been saying the same thing.

Yeah. JB has even been saying that WORST case would be an 1899 scenario...but at this point I do not see something THAT extreme in the works. The WORST case to me would be a Feb. 1989 or Jan/Feb. 1951 scenario...but that is WORST case and not probable until we see further evidence of the possibility..but I do not think that it is out of the realm of possibility. Wonder what we will be saying next week at this time? By that point we should KNOW whether or not something major is going to play out.

FWIW I've been reading JB since 1999 and he's said that at least once every single winter, and so far 1899 reigns supreme, and prob. will for the rest of our lifetimes...so when he brings up 1899 (again and again) I just shrug.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Portastorm, with the AO forcast to go strongly negative in the medium range, the CPC probably has nailed where the brunt of the coldest air will come initially, the plains. From past experience and looking at the models, I think there'll be a couple minor intrusions of arctic air next week into the southern plains. Then, early the following week, the motherload will come down.

Agreed!

This scenario is what Air Force Met suggested would happen. Accuwx's JB also has been saying the same thing.

Yeah. JB has even been saying that WORST case would be an 1899 scenario...but at this point I do not see something THAT extreme in the works. The WORST case to me would be a Feb. 1989 or Jan/Feb. 1951 scenario...but that is WORST case and not probable until we see further evidence of the possibility..but I do not think that it is out of the realm of possibility. Wonder what we will be saying next week at this time? By that point we should KNOW whether or not something major is going to play out.

FWIW I've been reading JB since 1999 and he's said that at least once every single winter, and so far 1899 reigns supreme, and prob. will for the rest of our lifetimes...so when he brings up 1899 (again and again) I just shrug.

yeah, I would agree that 1899 is a little overboard...I mean if it got cold enough to freeze parts of Galveston bay over...I would be a little worried (and that is an understatement. lol). I think a 1951, 1979 or 1989 scenario is not out of the question yet though.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I saw JB's comment about 1899 and I shook my head in disbelief. This is how he gets burned because he takes a pontential event and tries to compare it to the extreme or the exterme events. He does it with cold outbreaks and with Hurricanes as well. A simple take that the much of the nation has a chance to be way below normal for awhile might be enough.

The only way we in Texas and the South for that matter will know what type of cold is really coming down is when we start seeing daily maxes at a certain temp at the US/ Canada border. If it's -10 to -20, we are in huge trouble (IE record breaking cold for daily temps maxes and mins, maybe not all time). If it's around zero to 10+, we'll having freezing temps possibly for day time highs and lows, but nothing historic. If it is 15 to 25, we're in for a good cold snap with freezing night time temps depending on if we get overrunning or not.

[Extremeweatherguy]

latest run of the EURO shows a 1050mb high jetting south out of Canada by next Friday with cold air sinking down the plains. With this scenario the bulk of the cold next weekend may go east, but it could easily still get cold enough for a hard freeze and highs below 50. . .If, however, the high is stronger than 1050mb...then we may have to watch out for a direct hit of arctic air. Next weekend will probably be just the first in a series of arcitc blasts and will probably be the weakest of the 1-3 that may follow it. It's getting closer and closer! Next week at this time we will not be saying "when?" we will be saying "it's here." I just hope we can get some snow out of one of these arctic air masses!

[ETXHAMXYL]

The FTWorth NWS stated in their lastest that No Seriously Cold Air Intrusion for next week would be seen in the region. Wonder if they read any weather boards or are they just rebels? Even the local mets here in the past few broadcasts mention the possibility of a change, but don't know how much of a change but a change is coming in the next few weeks. Steve McCauly over at channel 8 in DFW stated again his McFarland Explaination but was toned down just a bit and said something to the effect of maybe or maybe not just depends too far out for now to make any statements on really cold air . He's not one to really hold back and is usually the one to eat crow later. Will have to wait and see.

[AL Chili Pepper]

latest run of the EURO shows a 1050mb high jetting south out of Canada by next Friday with cold air sinking down the plains. With this scenario the bulk of the cold next weekend may go east, but it could easily still get cold enough for a hard freeze and highs below 50. . .If, however, the high is stronger than 1050mb...then we may have to watch out for a direct hit of arctic air. Next weekend will probably be just the first in a series of arcitc blasts and will probably be the weakest of the 1-3 that may follow it. It's getting closer and closer! Next week at this time we will not be saying "when?" we will be saying "it's here." I just hope we can get some snow out of one of these arctic air masses!

It also shows that cold dome of -30C 850mb temps slowly sinking south over Canada throughout the 7 day run. The source will be there, but can it deliver??

[boca]

Why can't the NWS across the states pick up on what the weather boards are saying about the cold air intrusion. These are professional mets and they look at the same models we do.

[jasons2k]

Well JB has gone on record that it will hit 26 at both Harlingen and Orlando by month's end.

I'm going on record that it won't happen.

[jasons2k]

Why can't the NWS across the states pick up on what the weather boards are saying about the cold air intrusion. These are professional mets and they look at the same models we do.

I seriously doubt what's posted on weather boards is a factor in their forecasts. You had it right when you said "these are professional mets"

[Tyler]

GFS coming around to the EURO?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

Cold arctic outbreak. Only difference being the high is weaker on the GFS, instead of 1050MB + like the Euro, its 1040+ on the GFS. Still, next weekend will be VERY cold around here if this verifies....

[Johnny]

Harlingen 26? I agree....that's a stretch.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well JB has gone on record that it will hit 26 at both Harlingen and Orlando by month's end.

I'm going on record that it won't happen.

Actually in tonights post he says the pattern is capable of 0 in Chicago, 10 in NYC and 26 in Brownsville and Orlando...not that it was a definite.

[Tyler]

Well JB has gone on record that it will hit 26 at both Harlingen and Orlando by month's end.

I'm going on record that it won't happen.

Actually in tonights post he says the pattern is capable of 0 in Chicago, 10 in NYC and 26 in Brownsville and Orlando...not that it was a definite.

If so, then the 0z GFS is now JB's best friend for now...

[richtrav]

I'm looking at the San Antonio data for Feb '79 and don't see anything that unusual about it. The lowest temperature was 29. Now Jan '79 did have a decent shot of cold air, the teens in fact. Very "extreme" by today's standards but nothing too unusual for those bygone years when we used to get REAL shots of Arctic air (how long before our recent good luck runs out?)

[Tyler]

0z ECMWF Day 7 says "LOOK OUT BELOW!"





(GFS looks like this, only slower with the air)

If this were to verify, I'd run for the hills...

[Brent]

0z ECMWF Day 7 says "LOOK OUT BELOW!"

http://monkeynetwork.com/day7.gif



(GFS looks like this, only slower with the air)

If this were to verify, I'd run for the hills...

OMG... that's going to be quite a shock after this extremely warm weather.

[Tyler]

Wouldn't be suprised to see some teens coming out of this monster around here... Euro shows negative NAO days 5-7, it then phases the entire polar vortex lobe, as it drops south, pretty far south actually, as you can see on that map above... Thats serious cold there folks!

[jasons2k]

If you want it bitter cold here you'd want that centered over Montana not Minnesota. I think I'm sounding like a broken record.

[Portastorm]

If you want it bitter cold here you'd want that centered over Montana not Minnesota. I think I'm sounding like a broken record.

You sir, are correct!

Should this verify, the bulk of the cold air would focus east of Texas. We in the Lone Star State would get a glancing blow.