Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Portastorm]

Meanwhile, it appears the pending arctic outbreak is the talk of most NWSFOs in Texas. Here is a sampling, if I may:

CORPUS CHRISTI
BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING A BUILD UP
OF ARCTIC AIR OVER WESTERN CANADA MID-WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUKON TERRITORY. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWS
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THURSDAY. THIS POINTS
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS PLUNGING SOUTH
THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO SOUTH
TEXAS LATE FRIDAY. AFTER A VERY MILD WINTER SO FAR ACROSS THE
REGION...MAY SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

AMARILLO
THE LATTER MAY
SIGNAL THE INTRUSION OF SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR...HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME HAVE ONLY BEGUN A TREND TO LOWER MAX TEMPS IN DAY 6/7 PERIOD.

SAN ANGELO
THE GFS AND ECMWF DO INDICATE SOME COLDER AIR
MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY. ORIGINS OF THE AIR MASS ARE WESTERN CANADA
RATHER THAN THE AMERICAN ROCKY MOUNTAINS...SO PERHAPS THIS WILL BE
THE CASE.

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO
THE BIG WEATHER-TALK NEXT WEEK WILL BE ABOUT AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
WHICH IS FORECAST BY THE GFS AND ECMWF TO SPILL DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKIES ON THU/FRI AS A HUGE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH OUR AREA ABOUT 12H FASTER THAN THE GFS...AROUND MID DAY
FRI. MAYBE WE'LL HAVE A FEW DAYS OF WINTER AFTERALL...

LUBBOCK
THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH THE PROGGED POSITION OF THE HIGH FAVORING COLD AIR
RIDGING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DIRECTED TOWARD WEST TEXAS. WITH
UNCERTAINTY WILL TREND FRIDAY/S TEMPS DOWN A FEW CATEGORIES OVER THE
NORTH TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.


MIDLAND/ODESSA
ECMWF/GFS STARTING TO HINT AT PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR COLDER AIR TO
MOVE S AS MORE OF MERIDIONAL COMPONENT DEVELOPS ACRS WRN CANADA WITH
POLAR VORTEX RETURNING TO THE HUDSON BAY AREA AND WILL REFLECT
COOLER INTO FRI.

HOUSTON

UPPER FLOW AGAIN BECOMES NW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH COULD
ALLOW WHAT LOOKS TO BE A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS TO POTENTIALLY MAKE
ITS WAY DOWN NEXT WEEKEND.

[Portastorm]

And here is one final tidbit from our friends at the NWS. Looks like they prefer the Euro scenario this morning and the dump of arctic air into the Plains.

I dunno, to me it still looks a little east of Texas in the long run.

***************

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
829 AM EST SAT FEB 04 2006

VALID 12Z WED FEB 08 2006 - 12Z SAT FEB 11 2006


LATEST MEANS AND OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AGREE WITH THE IDEA OF
AMPLIFYING THE WEST COAST RIDGE INTO NWRN CANADA/ERN AK BY THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD... WITH A PERSISTENT MEAN TROF OVER ERN
NOAM. HOWEVER AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE... GUIDANCE DISPLAYS SOME
DIFFS FOR SPECIFICS WITHIN THE AGREEABLE MEAN FLOW. WHILE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTIONS OF KEEPING THE
MEAN TROF AXIS EWD MORE ALONG 85W THE ECMWF ALONG WITH
NOGAPS/CANADIAN AND UKMET RETROGRADE THE TROF AXIS WWD MORE TOWRD
THE PLAINS WITH A STRONGER ARCTIC AIR DUMP DAYS 6 AND 7 SWD INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS CONSENSUS OF HIGHER RES MODELS VS GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLE MEANS A PREFERRED SOLUTION THIS MORNING.
ROSENSTEIN

[jasons2k]

Thanks for posting that summary. It just goes to show the NWS isn't asleep at the wheel after all.

[Portastorm]

Thanks for posting that summary. It just goes to show the NWS isn't asleep at the wheel after all.

No, they are not asleep at the wheel. Perhaps some are better than others at working these patterns.

Everything in due time, right?

Meanwhile, we're edging closer to the real event and we will find out what's hype and what's not.

One thing's for sure, I wouldn't want to be one of those folks walking to the Super Bowl tomorrow. Detroit is going to get blasted with a major snowstorm. 6-8 inches of snow with gusty winds, drifting snow, etc. Bbbrrrrr. Good thing it's indoors.

[aggiecutter]

The morning Ensemble run looks very cold for the mid-month period...

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... times.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

The morning Ensemble run looks very cold for the mid-month period...

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... times.html

the ensembles just re-inforce the fact that the cold will start this upcoming weekend, but that it will be cooler this next week. Still on track...

[Portastorm]

Again, if I may remind everyone, the "worst of it" may occur for us in Texas and the southern Plains as we get towards mid month ... like aggiecutter shows us with the ensemble runs.

Also as I have been posting, Air Force Met last week in this thread talked about how the coldest air would impact areas northeast of us and then gradually back southwest.

However, there is no doubt that temps will be closer to seasonal this week and maybe next weekend drop below seasonal ... and continue dropping, maybe?!

[Nimbus]

Its -39 degrees in Gakona and I have no doubt some of that cold air is going to find its way south at least as far as northern Texas.

Recent front moving through Florida will cool things down for a few days but arctic air gets moderated by the time it reaches mid to south Florida so I'm not sure where JB's prediction of an overnight low of 26 in Tampa comes from?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Its -39 degrees in Gakona and I have no doubt some of that cold air is going to find its way south at least as far as northern Texas.

Recent front moving through Florida will cool things down for a few days but arctic air gets moderated by the time it reaches mid to south Florida so I'm not sure where JB's prediction of an overnight low of 26 in Tampa comes from?

well his prediction is not for the short term, but rather he thinks that it will happen between Feb. 5th and 15th/20th. 26 in Tampa and Orlando is unusual, but not astonishing. I remember quite a few times when the mercury fell below 26 over the years that I lived in central FL...and the records for both Tampa and Orlando (all time) are in the teens. The last time that Orlando got close to 26 was in 2003 when they hit 27...but places north of the airport got as low as 20. That was also the time when snow flurries occurred on the east coast.

[jasons2k]

The last time Tampa hit 26 or below was in 1996, before that 1989.

And it's very, very rare for February. The latest in the season this has occured was on 2/14 back in - guess when - 1899. The next closest is 2/9 from the other super freeze in 1895.

In summary, Tampa has hit 26 or below in Feb. a total of 7 times since records began in 1890. And only 3 times since the winter of 1899. I'd say the odds are pretty slim it will happen this year.

[aggiecutter]

ouch....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

ouch....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

What's this? winter weather in Houston in 7 days (instead of the usual 14-15). May be the GFS is onto something this time. We will need to watch following runs closely. If it still looks like this in a few days, then ice/sleet/snow may be on the way! Let's hope it is right...

[jkt21787]

From Memphis this afternoon...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME REALLY COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

[JenyEliza]

From FFC (Peachtree City GA)

This is the first SWS we've had in a while to mention the word *now.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
345 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2006

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-050845-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS- CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW- CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB- NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES- HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON- NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON- SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT... DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...GRIFFIN
345 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2006

...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL MOISTEN RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...THEN ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ON MONDAY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS FAR SOUTH AS AN ATLANTA TO ATHENS LINE...WITH ALL SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH OF A ROME TO GAINESVILLE LINE.

IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THERE WILL BE ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL PREVENT THE SNOW FROM ACCUMULATING MUCH ON ROADWAYS...BUT BRIDGES COULD BECOME SLICK AND DANGEROUS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPMENTAL STAGES...AND THE EXACT TRACK AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS QUESTIONABLE. RESIDENTS OF NORTH GEORGIA ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR LATER STATEMENTS.

$$

[Extremeweatherguy]

WOW!!! Check out the latest AFD from Dallas:

FINALLY...SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THIS FORECAST...AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LONGWAVE PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL RESULT IN
AN ABRUPT END TO THE WARM WEATHER THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE
LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS. UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST BY GFSLR/ECMWF/CMC
GUIDANCE TO BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA...AND ALLOW AT LEAST SOME OF THE BITTERLY COLD AIR THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE OVER ALASKA TO BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO DIVE
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. LACK
OF SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND CANADIAN PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN A GOOD DEAL OF AIRMASS MODIFICATION...BUT STILL EXPECT THE
COLDEST AIRMASS SINCE THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER 2005 TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

**If we saw the coldest since early December then that means mid 30s in Houston for Highs, below Freezing in Dallas and low temperature potentials way down to 10 in Dallas and the lower 20s in Houston (the only reason we did not get there last time was because of cloud cover). It also means winter weather potential all the way down to Houston (though last time we were sparred in the knick of time...which I was mad about) Things could get VERY interesting....can't wait for the Houston AFD to come out!**

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is a portion of the Shreveport, LA discussion which includes areas all the way south to Lufkin:

UPPER WINDS TURN DUE NORTH SO
LOWERED WED AND WED NIGHT TEMPS TO AGREE MORE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES. THE REAL COLD AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. LACK
OF SNOW COVER IN NORTHERN STATES MAY MODIFY THIS POLAR AIR...BUT
GIVEN VERY LOW DEWPOINTS...ALSO LOWERED WEEKEND TEMPS TO REFLECT PERHAPS
THE COLDEST AIR YET THIS WINTER SEASON.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Houston AFD just in...they are not mentioning an arctic front just yet...but if this trend continues...I would count on the mention in their next full discussion. They do, however, continue to say that next week will be very cool.

[PTrackerLA]

It's looking more and more likely that we'll finally see a hard freeze around here with all this arctic air coming down. It's been delayed, delayed, and even more delayed since Christmas but winter is finally coming back!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Any pro met input on this upcoming weekend event? Just curious to see if you think that we will be seeing the coldest or colder air than early December too. Also, any thoughts on potential winter precip? Thanks.

[Brent]

BUT STILL EXPECT THE
COLDEST AIRMASS SINCE THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER 2005 TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

I don't see what's so shocking about that... we've been really warm ever since, so that's not saying much.