Official GA/AL/TN/NC/SC Cold Winter Rain Thread.

[HurricaneGirl]

I had approximately 4-8/10" of rain for this weekend in Jacksonville Florida.

[JenyEliza]

Getting ready for the Christmas weekend "Cold Winter Rain"....

[JenyEliza]

I'm all ready for the Cold Christmas Rain...

[whereverwx]

I'm experiencing the first symptoms: high blood pressure. Next, it will be a stroke if I'm not careful…

Friday
Mostly cloudy. Rain likely in the morning...then a slight chance of light rain and snow in the afternoon. No snow accumulation. Highs in the middle 40s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

[JenyEliza]

I'm experiencing the first symptoms: high blood pressure. Next, it will be a stroke if I'm not careful…

Friday
Mostly cloudy. Rain likely in the morning...then a slight chance of light rain and snow in the afternoon. No snow accumulation. Highs in the middle 40s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

All the makings of a really great, fun, Cold Winter Rain event.

[whereverwx]

I'm experiencing the first symptoms: high blood pressure. Next, it will be a stroke if I'm not careful…

Friday
Mostly cloudy. Rain likely in the morning...then a slight chance of light rain and snow in the afternoon. No snow accumulation. Highs in the middle 40s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

All the makings of a really great, fun, Cold Winter Rain event.

This is the first time they predicted a chance of snow this winter, they better be right!

[JenyEliza]

I'm experiencing the first symptoms: high blood pressure. Next, it will be a stroke if I'm not careful…

Friday
Mostly cloudy. Rain likely in the morning...then a slight chance of light rain and snow in the afternoon. No snow accumulation. Highs in the middle 40s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

All the makings of a really great, fun, Cold Winter Rain event.

This is the first time they predicted a chance of snow this winter, they better be right!

I hope they are right...I fear you might be disappointed. I guess we'll just have to see if this post belongs in the snow thread or the cold winter rain thread.

Good luck....we're not getting anything but cold and clouds (which is fine if we can't have *now).

Jen

[whereverwx]

I'm experiencing the first symptoms: high blood pressure. Next, it will be a stroke if I'm not careful…

Friday
Mostly cloudy. Rain likely in the morning...then a slight chance of light rain and snow in the afternoon. No snow accumulation. Highs in the middle 40s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

All the makings of a really great, fun, Cold Winter Rain event.

This is the first time they predicted a chance of snow this winter, they better be right!

I hope they are right...I fear you might be disappointed. I guess we'll just have to see if this post belongs in the snow thread or the cold winter rain thread.

Good luck....we're not getting anything but cold and clouds (which is fine if we can't have *now).

Jen

Thanks, I do pity your snowless winters.

Here's an interesting update! Looks like a cold rain event for most of the day , but the afternoon might bring hope.

Friday
Mostly cloudy. Rain likely in the morning...then a slight chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the middle 40s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

[whereverwx]

Wow, storm cancel! We did not even get a light drizzle today, which is not even close to the 7 hours of rain that Accuwhether predicted. Also, the sun is out now.

[Brent]

Geez... what a COLD MISERABLE January day(especially after near 80 on Monday ). It's dark and cloudy out and there's a biting wind chill. Temperature has been sitting at 41-42 all day(and all night last night). There may have been some kind of precip earlier(there were a bunch of reports just north of here of tiny snowflakes), but my hunch is it was too warm for it to be snow.

[jkt21787]

Geez... what a COLD MISERABLE January day(especially after near 80 on Monday ). It's dark and cloudy out and there's a biting wind chill. Temperature has been sitting at 41-42 all day(and all night last night). There may have been some kind of precip earlier(there were a bunch of reports just north of here of tiny snowflakes), but my hunch is it was too warm for it to be snow.

Looks like you got left out. Sorry.

Had a good bit of snow here Today, in the form of flurries and even an occasional full-blown light snow shower! Accumulation was noted on cars, though very light. It was nice while it lasted. Looks like similar reports were noted across MS, AL and the remainder of TN as well.

And so ends the winter of 2005-2006! It was fun while it lasted!

[JenyEliza]

Will it be cold winter rain? Or *now for the Atlanta area Sunday/Monday? At this point in our "winter" (such that it has been "winter" here), I'm guessing cold winter rain. Sure hope I'm wrong.

Sunday Night: A chance of rain and snow after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low near 30. West wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday: A chance of rain and snow before 1pm, then a slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/html/afd.php?pil=FFCAFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
500 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
SEVERAL CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL BE FALLING SOON...BUT MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON WHEN FRONT GETS THERE. AT ATL...HAVE PENCILED IN 49 BUT COULD EASILY BE MUCH WARMER IF FRONT GETS THERE RIGHT AFTER 12Z. OF COURSE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AFTERWARDS...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT. SAME THING APPLIES TO OTHER SITES EAST OF ATL BUT EVEN WARMER.

OTHER CONCERN IS WHEN PRECIP CHCS WILL TAPER OFF. AGAIN...DEPENDS ON TIMING OF FRONT AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. STILL MEASURING AT BHM THIS HOUR. AM INCLINED TO KEEP POPS HIGH IN THE MORNING AND AGAIN THE POPS PENCILED IN BELOW WILL BE SUBJECT TO LAST MINUTE CHANGES. MAY EVEN ISSUE AN UPDATE AROUND 6 TO 630AM.

TSRA CHANCES WILL BE DROPPED THIS MORNING WITH VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY PER SPC MUCAPE ANALYSIS AND LIGHTNING DATA MUCH LOWER THAN EARLIER. DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE HIGH AHEAD OF FRONT...SO WILL WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

PRECIP TYPE MAY CHANGE TO VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN FAR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES DROP QUICKLY. SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ACCUMULATION OR TRAVEL PROBLEMS EXPECTED. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED THIS AFTERNOON IF PRECIP BECOMES HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED.

LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY AS COLD AIR AT 850MB PUSHES IN. ANY BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS.

FINAL PROBLEM TODAY IS VERY STRONG WINDS. NEW GUIDANCE EVEN
STRONGER WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OVER ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES. HAVE EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY WITH SAME TIME FRAME...10AM TO 6PM.

FLURRIES TONIGHT AGAIN POSSIBLE IN WRAPAROUND BUT AGAIN NO
ACCUMULATION OR TRAVEL PROBLEMS EXPECTED.

AFTER TONIGHT...SHOULD BE CLEAR ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUED GUSTY BUT WEAKER THAN TODAY. NEXT CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK THAN PREVIOUS CLIPPERS THIS WINTER. THIS PUTS US IN A MORE FAVORABLE TRACK FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE VERY TRICKY AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM GFS AND NAM INDICATE VERY GOOD CHC OF SNOW OVER NORTH GA AND RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL GA. 1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESSES ON THE LINE FOR SNOW HOWEVER MODEL SFC TEMPS AND MAV/MET GUIDANCE INDICATE IT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM AT THE SFC FOR MUCH SNOW.

FOR LATE SUN NIGHT...HAVE CHC R/S MIX OVER N GA AND ALL SNOW OVER FAR NE GA. BY MON...TEMPS MAY RISE SOME AND LIFT AND PRECIP SLIDES SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE TEMPS ON MONDAY MAY BE WAY TOO WARM IF CLOUDS AND PRECIP HOLD FIRM DURING THE DAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 LIQUID EQUIV SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. :)

[GeneratorPower]

Here in Huntsville, AL we're hoping for the same thing.

[JenyEliza]

Here in Huntsville, AL we're hoping for the same thing.

It would be really nice to see some *now, but after the last few rather snowless winters, and the spring like weather of the last 4-5 weeks, I'm not even going dare hope for it. If it happens, then I'll be thrilled...but I'm expecting rain it will be just another cold winter rain (again).

[Brent]

This appears to be our best chance for snow this season... I'm not going to jinx it, but this is either going to be all rain or quite a bit of snow IMO. None of this flurry junk.

[JenyEliza]

This appears to be our best chance for snow this season... I'm not going to jinx it, but this is either going to be all rain or quite a bit of snow IMO. None of this flurry junk.

Beh...it's gonna be rain. Cold winter rain. Cold, cold winter rain.

[whereverwx]

Monday Night
Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain showers. Lows around 30.

I ♥ my cold rain.

Oh, but wait, I missed this:

Friday
Partly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow. Highs in the upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

[Brent]

Very borderline, but WOW. If we get into that snow we're going to have a lot. I wouldn't be surprised IF this map verifies to hear about some 6" totals...

http://204.2.104.196/S-EAST_ETA218_1000 ... P_48HR.gif

[JenyEliza]

Very borderline, but WOW. If we get into that snow we're going to have a lot. I wouldn't be surprised IF this map verifies to hear about some 6" totals...

http://204.2.104.196/S-EAST_ETA218_1000 ... P_48HR.gif

DANG. I'm just under the rain/freeze line. As usual.

[LarryWx]

Here is the 0Z SAT Euro breakdown as I see it:

1) 7 AM-7 PM MON:

- ~.25" QPF ATL and .13" AHN. (Some of this lost to evap. cooling. (~.05"??..anyone else have a guess?).

- My educ. guess is ATL very close to 0C at 850 during much of period until late, when 0C line moves north to Roswell. AHN s/b near or a hair below 0C entire time.

- My guess is that no appreciable precip. falls earlier than 7 AM on Euro.

- My interpretation is rain/snow line very close to or a hair south of ATL at the start of precip. and near Roswell at 7 PM, and a little south or near AHN the entire period. Bulk of this period's precip. would be snow downtown ATL and it would be all snow in Roswell/AHN.

- My guess for 7 AM-7PM, after taking into account the somewhat warm ground everywhere initially and slightly warming 850's in ATL, is ~1-1.5" of sticking snow downtown ATL, ~1.5-2" near Roswell, and 0.5" in AHN.

- I'm assuming ~ isothermal 850 to ground once evap. cooling is completed. Do others agree with isothermal? There's no wedging/inversion as I see it.

2) 7 PM MON-7 AM TUE:

- QPF of ~.10" ATL and ~.12" AHN making entire event's QPF .35" ATL and .25" AHN. Event QPF is ~.5"-.6" NE AL to NW GA/AL border.

- This period is mainly rain, with maybe some rain/snow mix, for downtown ATL, mainly snow and rain/snow mix for Roswell, and snow for AHN. Precip. ends late evening ATL and a little later AHN.

- Additional measurable snow guess: none downtown ATL, 0-0.5" Roswell, and 1" AHN.

3) ENTIRE EVENT sticking snow suggested by my interp. of 0Z SAT Euro:

- 1" officially ATL
- 1-1.5" downtown ATL
- 2" Roswell
- 1.5" AHN
- 3-5" snow NE AL to NW GA/AL border.
For ATL-AHN, though not a "major" snow per se, this much snow would be a very signficant event imho. For NE AL/far NW GA, it could come close to "major" category if it verfies.