Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[JenyEliza]

You guys are funny!

If someone's taking orders, I'd like my snow on Monday or Tuesday or maybe Monday AND Tuesday ... don't ruin the weekend.

I'm with y'all about teens and stuff. That's crazy cold for the South and I had enough of that growing up in Ohio. I'm ordering 28-30 degrees and precip. And yes, I want fries with that!

OMG...

[gboudx]

DFW NWS goes further with the mention tonight. I've been waiting on them to come around before getting onboard. Cold without sleet/snow isn't what I want to see, but we're enjoying this weekend. Maybe I won't have to get my mower ready afterall.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
906 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2006


.UPDATE...
DID NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH FOR THIS EVENINGS UPDATE. ADJUSTED HOURLY
GRIDS MAINLY. THIS MIGHT CHANGE TONIGHTS WORDING FOR SKIES AND WINDS
A LITTLE...BUT ALL-IN-ALL THE FORECAST IS THE SAME.

LOOKING AHEAD...ECMWF AND GFS SERIES OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS BEYOND WEDNESDAY. NEWEST GFS RUN HAS TRENDED COLDER FOR
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. IT/S THAT TIME OF THE YEAR FOR A
CHANGE...ARCTIC INTRUSION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY WITH
SUCH A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND INTO
NORTHERN ALASKA. THE DAY SHIFT HAS ALREADY TRENDED COOLER FOR
WED-SAT. IF THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND...THEN
I/M SHOULD WE WILL BE CUTTING BACK ON MAX/MIN TEMPS FOR NEXT FRI-SUN.

[Extremeweatherguy]

well the 0Z GFS had to go and ruin our fun! (haha) It still has it chilly with precip...but now instead of -8C 850mb temps. on Saturday it is about 1C 850mb temps. on Saturday. Now the model is still coming in...so I do not know what the GFS has planned for the time period beyond 162 hrs...but I hope that this change will only be temporary. Let's hope that the colder look is back by the 6Z or 12Z run or else our hopes for snow within a week may be shattered. I am confident though, that things WILL return to the colder look. We WILL get snow! I hope...

[Tyler]

I think the GFS is having trouble with this arctic air, I don't think the air would be hung up like that just to our north. Whatever, we still have many days ahead to watch this...

Anyway, I want to see what the Euro has to say.

Edit: Also, where the GFS may be an error, is that energy in the Pac NW just sitting there, that may be whats making the GFS push the trough a bit to the east. Normal GFS bias of holding energy in the long range too much in the west.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the GFS is having trouble with this arctic air, I don't think the air would be hung up like that just to our north. Whatever, we still have many days ahead to watch this...

Anyway, I want to see what the Euro has to say.

Edit: Also, where the GFS may be an error, is that energy in the Pac NW just sitting there, that may be whats making the GFS push the trough a bit to the east. Normal GFS bias of holding energy in the long range too much in the west.

yeah lets hope that this is just a temporary thing. I think it will be. I have the feeling that by the next run or two...the GFS will be back to a colder/snowier look. As long as we have the Euro on our side though, there is hope. I remember that before the December event the GFS showed cold at day 7, then lost it for 2 days, and then picked it up again around 5 days out. It tends to flip flop before a big event.

[Tyler]

Now that I look at it more, there is no way that piece of energy would undercut the ridge like that. 12z and 18z doesn't show it, and neither does the Euro. GFS bias of holding back too much energy seems to be at play here..

[PTPatrick]

I dont know about the GFS bias, but that long range 10+ days out appears to be status quo for this winter...i.e no arctic outbreak. Still looks cool this week, but all the sudden the model is calling for a warm up again beyond 7-8 days. I dont like this...I was all fired up for a cold february. I havent seen temps in the 20's yet this year, which is a first for me in a long time in Mobile. I know we have had some hard freezes in the past couple of years, although nothing really frigid since the 2000-2001 winter

[Brent]

Valentine's Day Blizzard...

[Tyler]

I dont know about the GFS bias, but that long range 10+ days out appears to be status quo for this winter...i.e no arctic outbreak. Still looks cool this week, but all the sudden the model is calling for a warm up again beyond 7-8 days. I dont like this...I was all fired up for a cold february. I havent seen temps in the 20's yet this year, which is a first for me in a long time in Mobile. I know we have had some hard freezes in the past couple of years, although nothing really frigid since the 2000-2001 winter

1st off, this is just one model run. Second, the GFS is in error with that energy undercutting the ridge in the Pac NW. Your going to see more than 20's next weekend. Take that to the bank.

[Tyler]

I bet, once the 7 day 0z Euro comes out, it will show -5C 850 temps (or colder). Just watch... The 0z GFS is full of crap past 144.

Edit: The ECMWF shows -4. I was close!

[Tyler]

6z GFS corrects itself (as I thought it would) and shows bitterly cold arctic air pushing south...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _156.shtml

-6C 850 Temps, COLD:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _174.shtml

[Tyler]

Whats interesting is the ECMWF and GFS now both have the front moving in at the SAME exact time. ECMWF a bit warmer since it usually has that bias since its a global model.

6z GFS day 7 maps:

Pressure and precip (possibly some snow in AL, GA):


850MB Temps (C):

WAY too cold for me..

[wxman22]

Looks intresting to say the least hears a clip from this mornings Houstons NWS discussion:STILL WATCHING FOR
SOME CANADIAN AIR TO COME DOWN NEXT WEEKEND. MOSTLY FOLLOWING THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN AS THEY`VE SHOWN MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE
GFS AS OF LATE. SO...WILL BE INDICATING A FROPA FRI NIGHT AND
UNDERCUTTING MEX NUMBERS BY 5+ DEGREES NEXT SAT/SUN. 47

[Tyler]

Houston's forecast for mid 50's for highs and low 40's for lows next weekend are going to bust pretty bad... With 850MB temps -5 to -8C around the area, I would say highs in the 40's and lows in the low 20's seem a good bet, maybe even upper teens. Its going to be interesting!

[Portastorm]

After a brief perusal of the models this Sunday morning, I still think the coldest air goes east of Texas and focuses more on the Tennessee Valley and deep South areas ... at least in the next 5-7 days. I just think the angle of the eastern U.S. trough and delivery of arctic air, at least as progged by the GFS and Euro, takes it that way.

I'm thinking 10-15 degrees below seasonal norms for us by this weekend. Nothing more. For Austin, that's highs in the low to mid 50s and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Actually, you folks in Houston may be more on the end of 15 degrees below norms as you'd be closer to that deep trough setting up.

But I also still think the POTENTIAL for colder beyond next weekend is certainly still there.

[Burn1]

Probably looking for lows in upper 30's next weekend for SE Texas....Normal High for mid Feb in Houston is about 67 or so, normal lows are in upper 40's....Actually record low for Houston on Feb 13, 14th is 26 and 27......So looking for lows in upper teens would be a monster undertaking for record breaking cold.....just don't see it.....

[Extremeweatherguy]

well the records you see for Feb. from the NWS or Weather.com do not go back that far. If you look way back in history you can see that we have been as low as 6 degrees in Feb. before.

Here is a link for some of those freezes: http://www.wxresearch.com/freeze.htm

Some examples:

Feb. 12th, 1899 = 6 degrees
Feb. 13th, 1899 = 6 degrees
Feb. 16th, 1895 = 13 degrees

EDIT: Plus, it does not even have to get that cold to be record breaking. In Feb. 1989 we were below 32 for a long stretch of days, but we never got below 25. There was also a trace of snow during that cold spell.

[Extremeweatherguy]

BASED ON THE FORECASTED PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT
THE GFS MAY BE TOO WARM. THEREFORE...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

^^part of the Dallas AFD^^

[Johnny]

Burn1, if we have arctic air coming down (even modified) it's going to get colder than the upper 30's at night...you can count on that. I live 45 minutes north of Conroe and I hit the mid 30's yesterday morning and it got down to 37 I believe this morning. This is without arctic air. JMO

[LAwxrgal]

New Orleans is on board (for real this time ) the Arctic choo-choo:

From the New Orleans AFD:

THE EXTENDED IS LOOKING COLD. A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST
PAC INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME REGIONS. THIS ALLOWS A VERY BROAD
DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO DIG OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
BRINGING MANY SHOTS OF COLD AIR FROM THE CANANIAN TUNDRA COUNTRY.
LOOKS LIKE WINTER WILL FINALLY STRIKE THE NORTH AND STICK AROUND
FOR A WHILE. WINTER WIL ALSO SHOW UP IN THE SOUTH AS WELL IF THESE
SOLUTIONS HOLD TRUE.

And...

EXTENDED IS STILL LOOKING TO BE INTERESTING AS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY DIVES BACK INTO WINTER AND STAY THERE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

As usual they're conservative with temps, they won't really say how cold it'll get... but this far out it's possible they don't really know yet...