SW Pacific: TD 10

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 02/0901 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F [1000 HPA] LOCATED NEAR 20S 171W AT 020600
UTC MOVING WEST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON MTSAT/IR IMAGE
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST AROUND 28C.

SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANISED WITH CONVECTION REMAINS DETACHED FROM LLCC
AND ACTIVE IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. 10F LIES SOUTHEAST OF UPPER [250
HPA] FLOW, IN A GOOD DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMMS INDICATES STRONG SHEAR
NEAR 10F BUT DECREASING TENDENCY TO THE WEST. MOST MODELS [UKGC, EC]
HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM, MOVING IT WESTWARDS INITIALLY BEFORE CURVING
IT SOUTHEAST WITHOUT SIGNIFIACNT DEVELOPMENT.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 02/2325 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE [998 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 20S 168.5W AT
022100 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT/IR
IMAGE WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST AROUND 28C.

CONVECTION REMAINS DETACHED FROM 10F AND ACTIVE IN QUADRANTS FROM
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH TO SOUTHEAST. 10F LIES EAST OF UPPER [250
HPA] FLOW, IN A GOOD DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMMS INDICATES 20 TO 30 KNOTS
SHEAR OVER 10F BUT DECREASING TENDENCY TO THE SOUTHEAST. MOST MODELS
[UKGC, EC] HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM, MOVING IT SOUTHEAST WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 03/0841 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE [999 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 21S 168W AT
030600 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT/IR IMAGE WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST AROUND 28C.

CONVECTION REMAINS DETACHED FROM 10F AND ACTIVE IN QUADRANTS FROM
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH TO SOUTHEAST. 10F LIES EAST OF UPPER [250
HPA] FLOW, IN A GOOD DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMMS INDICATES 20 TO 30 KNOTS
SHEAR OVER 10F BUT DECREASING TENDENCY TO THE SOUTHEAST. MOST MODELS
[UKGC, EC] HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM, MOVING IT SOUTHEAST WITHOUT
SIGNIFIACNT DEVELOPMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[senorpepr]

FWIW, I've added the FMS link for 10F to the S2K Worldwide Tropical Update.

http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org/
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/spac.htm

[senorpepr]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 03/2349 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE [998 HPA] RELOCATED NEAR 21.5S 169.5W
AT 032100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT/VIS WITH
ANIMATION, LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST
AROUND 28C.

DEEP CONVECTION DETACHED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LLCC AND IS
SUPPORTED BY STRONG CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE AND GOOD UPPER
DIFFLUENCE. 10F LIES SOUTHEAST OF A 250HPA CYCLONIC INFLOW. CIMMS
INDICATES 20 TO 30 KNOTS SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM BUT THERE IS
DECREASING SHEAR TENDENCY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS
[UKGC, EC, GFS, NOGAPS] MOVE 10F SOUTHWARDS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. STRONG WINDS TO THE EAST OF 10F ARE SUPPORTED BY AN
ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH A VIGOUROUS MONSOONAL FLOW EXTENDING
FROM THE SOLOMON ISLANDS. THE POSSIBLLITY IS SMALL AT THIS STAGE THAT
THIS BAND OF NEAR GALE WINDS WILL REACH CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM CENTRE.

POTENTIAL FOR 10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[senorpepr]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 04/0902 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE [999 HPA] RELOCATED NEAR 25S 169W AT
040600 UTC MOVING SOUTEHAST 05 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
MTSAT/UIR WITH ANIMATION, LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
REPORTS. SST AROUND 27C.

DEEP CONVECTION DETACHED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LLCC AND IS
SUPPORTED BY STRONG CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE AND GOOD UPPER
DIFFLUENCE. 10F LIES SOUTHEAST OF A 250HPA CYCLONIC INFLOW. CIMMS
INDICATES 20 TO 30 KNOTS SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM BUT THERE IS
DECREASING SHEAR TENDENCY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS
[UKGC, EC, GFS, NOGAPS] MOVE 10F SOUTHWARDS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. STRONG WINDS TO THE EAST OF 10F ARE SUPPORTED BY AN
ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH A VIGOUROUS MONSOONAL FLOW EXTENDING
FROM THE SOLOMON ISLANDS. .

POTENTIAL FOR 10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[Coredesat]

I'm guessing this is it:


Nothing really there on the IR. The visible showed a very well-defined circulation a while ago, but there wasn't any convection near the center.

[senorpepr]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 05/0003 UTC 2006 UTC.

NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[Coredesat]

Gone from NRL.