Official GA/AL/TN/NC/SC Cold Winter Rain Thread.

[Brent]

I'm in the southern part of the southernmost county in the advisory area. The criteria for an advisory is at least 1/4 inch.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
413 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2006

...FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA...

.AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL APPROACH ALABAMA TONIGHT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND PUSH MOIST AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE AIRMASS IS VERY DRY ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
MOISTURE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO BELOW FREEZING IN THE
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY. A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS POSSIBLE AS FAR
SOUTH AS A CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA...ALABASTER...CHILDERSBURG...
ASHLAND...WEDOWEE LINE.

ALZ017>021-024>029-051815-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WW.Y.0001.060206T1200Z-060206T1800Z/
BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-
ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...ANNISTON...CENTRE...
HEFLIN...BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...ALABASTER...
PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE
413 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2006

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 12 PM CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 12 PM CST
MONDAY.

A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WILL BEGIN NEAR THOSE AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE
65 BETWEEN 3:00 AND AND 6:00 AM CST...AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE MIXTURE WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW NORTH OF A LINE FROM WARRIOR...TO RAGLAND...TO WEAVER AND
FRUITHURST. NORTH OF THIS LINE...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS. SOUTH OF THIS LINE
ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. AIR
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE ADVISORY AREA...SO ROADWAYS SHOULD REMAIN
WET...BUT BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME ICY. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN AFTER 10:00 AM CST.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

[JenyEliza]

I'm in the southern part of the southernmost county in the advisory area. The criteria for an advisory is at least 1/4 inch.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
413 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2006

...FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA...

.AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL APPROACH ALABAMA TONIGHT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND PUSH MOIST AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE AIRMASS IS VERY DRY ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
MOISTURE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO BELOW FREEZING IN THE
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY. A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS POSSIBLE AS FAR
SOUTH AS A CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA...ALABASTER...CHILDERSBURG...
ASHLAND...WEDOWEE LINE.

ALZ017>021-024>029-051815-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WW.Y.0001.060206T1200Z-060206T1800Z/
BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-
ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...ANNISTON...CENTRE...
HEFLIN...BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...ALABASTER...
PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE
413 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2006

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 12 PM CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 12 PM CST
MONDAY.

A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WILL BEGIN NEAR THOSE AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE
65 BETWEEN 3:00 AND AND 6:00 AM CST...AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE MIXTURE WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW NORTH OF A LINE FROM WARRIOR...TO RAGLAND...TO WEAVER AND
FRUITHURST. NORTH OF THIS LINE...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS. SOUTH OF THIS LINE
ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. AIR
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE ADVISORY AREA...SO ROADWAYS SHOULD REMAIN
WET...BUT BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME ICY. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN AFTER 10:00 AM CST.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

I hope the snow fairies give us more than a dusting, Brent!

Crossing fingers here. It's bright, clear and cold...only 34 at my house at Noon.

If we actually get snow, wonder if the kids will have school?

[Brent]

If we actually get snow, wonder if the kids will have school?

I would say IF there actually is some accumulation(especially more than a dusting), there will be no school. The roads may be fine, but the bridges will be of concern for slick spots.

[JenyEliza]

If we actually get snow, wonder if the kids will have school?

I would say IF there actually is some accumulation(especially more than a dusting), there will be no school. The roads may be fine, but the bridges will be of concern for slick spots.

I think you're exactly right.

From what I've seen so far this morning, it looks like my area stands a good chance for accumulation--but I take that with a grain of salt and realize that things can change here quickly. We could end up with a couple of inches--or nothing but COLD WINTER RAIN.

So...the only thing we can do is be prepared for the worst and hope for the best.

[Brent]

If we actually get snow, wonder if the kids will have school?

I would say IF there actually is some accumulation(especially more than a dusting), there will be no school. The roads may be fine, but the bridges will be of concern for slick spots.

I think you're exactly right.

From what I've seen so far this morning, it looks like my area stands a good chance for accumulation--but I take that with a grain of salt and realize that things can change here quickly. We could end up with a couple of inches--or nothing but COLD WINTER RAIN.

So...the only thing we can do is be prepared for the worst and hope for the best.

Yeah, as usual, we won't know what's going to happen til it starts to fall. One thing for sure, I will be up early tomorrow(it better snow ).

[JenyEliza]

One thing for sure, I will be up early tomorrow(it better snow ).

Now Brent, it's not nice to threaten Mother Nature.

[Lowpressure]

System to our west starting to look better, we are cool here windy and 44.6 degrees dp 19.

[Brent]

One thing for sure, I will be up early tomorrow(it better snow ).

Now Brent, it's not nice to threaten Mother Nature.

LOL... it's just I don't get up early for anything. Snow or a really big news event would be it. It'll probably be a situation where I get up, look out the window(since it looks like the sun will be up before most of it happens), and go back to sleep if there's nothing.

[Brent]

Look at Saturday!

http://www.abc3340.com/weather/7day.html

[ga_ben]

So they've issued a Winter Weather Advisory for counties north of Cobb, Paulding, Fulton and Gwinnett and have kept most of Atlanta metro in the Winter Storm Watch. Can we imply they think that most of the wintery precip will be over North Metro? Otherwise I cant figure why they'd drop the WSW for the far northern counties.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/

Should be a wild ride over the next week regardless.

[Lowpressure]

System appears on wv imagery to be trending a little more north, initialization was a bit too far south. Looks to be a colder solution where it does snow with a sharp demarcation line to rain. Like NWS Birmingham said yesterday 30 miles can be all the difference.

[Brent]

Things aren't looking as good now. May have to push the snow line a little farther north. May end up with all rain along I-20 in AL/GA now.

Not over yet though... but that's the trend.

[Brent]

So they've issued a Winter Weather Advisory for counties north of Cobb, Paulding, Fulton and Gwinnett and have kept most of Atlanta metro in the Winter Storm Watch. Can we imply they think that most of the wintery precip will be over North Metro? Otherwise I cant figure why they'd drop the WSW for the far northern counties.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/

Should be a wild ride over the next week regardless.

I'm thinking the watch will dropped later this evening unless things change leaving only an advisory from Atlanta north.

[ga_ben]

So why'd they take the WSW out of the counties north of Atlanta Metro. Wish they'd give us an update and tell us their thinking.

[JenyEliza]

So why'd they take the WSW out of the counties north of Atlanta Metro. Wish they'd give us an update and tell us their thinking.

Yeah, me too.

This is all they've given us to go on.

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
225 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2006

GAZ025-030>035-041>045-060330-
/O.CON.KFFC.WS.A.0001.060206T1100Z-060206T2100Z/
JACKSON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-HARALSON-
CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...LAWRENCEVILLE...
CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...DECATUR
225 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2006

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE SUNDAY. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW AND INTO GEORGIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

THE AIRMASS NEAR THE GROUND WILL BE COLD AND DRY BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE SYSTEM IS STILL ORGANIZING AT THIS TIME...AND THUS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA.

IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...IF THE RIGHT PARAMETERS COME TOGETHER...UP TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY OR EXPOSED SURFACES...INCLUDING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

FURTHER SOUTH IN A LINE ROUGHLY FROM CARROLLTON...TO THE SOUTH ATLANTA METRO...OVER TO THE ATHENS AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE. UP TO AN INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE ON EXPOSED SURFACES AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES WEAKER OR TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN EXPECTED...THEN LITTLE OR EVEN NO SNOW WILL OCCUR. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES STRONGER...SIGNIFICANT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGER AREA.

RESIDENTS OF NORTH GEORGIA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATIONCAREFULLY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

TDP

[JenyEliza]

So why'd they take the WSW out of the counties north of Atlanta Metro. Wish they'd give us an update and tell us their thinking.

PS. If you're in Marietta, you're still in the Watch area.

[JenyEliza]

So they've issued a Winter Weather Advisory for counties north of Cobb, Paulding, Fulton and Gwinnett and have kept most of Atlanta metro in the Winter Storm Watch. Can we imply they think that most of the wintery precip will be over North Metro? Otherwise I cant figure why they'd drop the WSW for the far northern counties.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/

Should be a wild ride over the next week regardless.

I'm thinking the watch will dropped later this evening unless things change leaving only an advisory from Atlanta north.

If that happens, then it's YOUR fault Brent.

You just *had* to go and threaten Mother Nature, didn't you?

[Brent]

BMX AFD:

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY).
COMPLEX FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS FIRST TASTE OF WINTER
WEATHER AFFECTS THE AREA. STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS ON MONDAY. DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHIFTING
INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD. WILL GO WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW LIKELY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS AND MAINLY CHANCE POPS AS WE MOVE EASTWARD. MAIN
WEATHER EVENT APPEARS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 4AM- 9AM WEST...6AM- 9AM
CENTRAL AND 7AM-11AM EAST. HAVE RE-ISSUED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SAME AREAS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH EXTREME
NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS PERHAPS SEEING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ALL SNOW. IN ADDITION...WITH WARM GROUND/ROAD SURFACES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 33 TO 38 DEGREE RANGE SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIMITED. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
SULLIGENT TO JASPER TO ONEONTA TO GADSDEN LINE WITH PERHAPS SOME
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA
AMOUNTS MAY APPROACH 1 INCH WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM TUSCALOOSA TO CALERA TO WEDOWEE. THIS SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN AFFECT AS PLUS OR MINUS 20 OR 30 MILES COULD
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE AS WELL AS 1 TO 2 HOURS IN TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE A VERY SHORT DURATION STORM AS
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY 10 AM IN THE WEST AND
NOON IN THE EAST.

[ga_ben]

Yeah Jeny we are still in the watch area but I just want to know what the pros are seeing.

[JenyEliza]

Yeah Jeny we are still in the watch area but I just want to know what the pros are seeing.

FFC is notorious for remaining silent with approaching winter storms. Do you remember the last ice storm in December? I stayed up all night looking for input from FFC...and they piddled around while everyone guessed what was going on. If you search this thread, you should see that discussion (at least I think it was in this thread).

FFC won't say anything more (I'm guessing) until 11 pm tonight.