Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Air Force Met]

Probably looking for lows in upper 30's next weekend for SE Texas....Normal High for mid Feb in Houston is about 67 or so, normal lows are in upper 40's....Actually record low for Houston on Feb 13, 14th is 26 and 27......So looking for lows in upper teens would be a monster undertaking for record breaking cold.....just don't see it.....

So what you are saying is that this airmass will be no different than the one we have now. IAH got down to 39 this morning without the arctic air, no real high pressure to speak of and no deep troughing into the central US (all of which will be present next week).

Now...I'm not saying teens...but I am certainly sure that if the current airmass can give us upper 30's...then next weeks setup (if it verifies) will be a little colder than this one...

don't ya think? Or do you not buy the idea of a double-barralled high sitting on the lee-side of the rockies and the whole idea that that airmass is colder than this one?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Probably looking for lows in upper 30's next weekend for SE Texas....Normal High for mid Feb in Houston is about 67 or so, normal lows are in upper 40's....Actually record low for Houston on Feb 13, 14th is 26 and 27......So looking for lows in upper teens would be a monster undertaking for record breaking cold.....just don't see it.....

So what you are saying is that this airmass will be no different than the one we have now. IAH got down to 39 this morning without the arctic air, no real high pressure to speak of and no deep troughing into the central US (all of which will be present next week).

Now...I'm not saying teens...but I am certainly sure that if the current airmass can give us upper 30's...then next weeks setup (if it verifies) will be a little colder than this one...

don't ya think? Or do you not buy the idea of a double-barralled high sitting on the lee-side of the rockies and the whole idea that that airmass is colder than this one?

AFM what are your latest thoughts on this arctic front coming next weekend? How cold do you think we have the potential to get? Do we have any winter weather potential? Any response would be great, it has been awhile since we have had pro met feedback on the possible situation setting up. thanks.

[Johnny]

I pretty much said the exact same thing AFM. And yea, stop holding back brotha. Tell us what you are seeing.

[PTPatrick]

12Z GFS still not very frigid after the 13th...in my neck of the woods there does not appear to be a freeze after after next week-end all the way up until day 16 of the model run. However, this week is looking actually cooler than 0z last night so I wont complain too much

[Extremeweatherguy]

Above is the current snow pack across the US. This snow pack should increase before next weekends arctic blast. There is expected to be some snow down the central plains over the next few days all the way south to Arkansas. Also, there is expected to be snow across north Georgia and the carolina's as well. As for the area up in northern Montana...they are expecting snow on Friday as the arctic air begins to come southward. Just thought I would point these things out.

[PTPatrick]

Has accuweather made some changed to there program that comes up with the long range forecasts. I could years ago they used to always have some freak cold spells on the 7-15 day, but now it almost seems to be the opposite. I have not seen Accuweather's 15 day overdo one cold snap this winter.
I used to use that as my gauge for if it was going to cool down, and oddly enough, with all this talk of cold...according to accuweather, Mobile, AL will NOT have a low below 35 degrees for the next 15 days. is this crap?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Has accuweather made some changed to there program that comes up with the long range forecasts. I could years ago they used to always have some freak cold spells on the 7-15 day, but now it almost seems to be the opposite. I have not seen Accuweather's 15 day overdo one cold snap this winter.
I used to use that as my gauge for if it was going to cool down, and oddly enough, with all this talk of cold...according to accuweather, Mobile, AL will NOT have a low below 35 degrees for the next 15 days. is this crap?

yes. their forecasts are some of the worst you can find. The only good forecasts from accuweather come from the professional service where you can get models, discussion from experts, etc. Their normal 15-day forecasts are made by computer and are usually wrong past day 5.

[southerngale]

What did the models show for today? It was 34° here this morning and many readings in the 30's around here.

If it's going to be much colder next week+ then it should definitely be cold enough to support snow. I doubt that will happen though....just wishful thinking.

However, if highs are going to be in the 50's or even 40's, that is chilly but not real cold to me.

[plainsman]

the weatherchannel has Snow for parts of North Texas and parts of the midsouth on Sat, feb11.. they have Snow from Dallas Texas to Memphis,Tn to just north of Atlanta,Ga.. i know the weatherchannel is more reliable then accuweather or the gfs dream network they have going.... i hope this pans out!!! its definetly worth watching...

[Brent]

Local station has a chance of snow on Saturday as well and turning colder. Low 29 High 37. 57 on Friday.

http://www.abc3340.com/weather/7day.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest NWS forecast for north Houston...this has been lowered 2-4 degrees since yesterday:

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 40.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high around 54.


I still think that this is (at the very least) 5 degrees too high...but MAY be up to 20-25 degrees too high in the worst case scenario.

[Tyler]

12Z GFS still not very frigid after the 13th...in my neck of the woods there does not appear to be a freeze after after next week-end all the way up until day 16 of the model run. However, this week is looking actually cooler than 0z last night so I wont complain too much

You could look at more models besides the GFS. There are more out there ya know. The GFS isn't the "all knowing model". ECMWF, CMC, all much colder next weekend. And much more consistent.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think that the GFS is still too warm..but the 18Z run still shows precip. mixing with cold air on day 6. If we are cold enough we may have a winter weather threat...but either way; it will be the coldest air in awhile. The other models are even colder than the GFS though..so I feel the GFS temps. will bust by at least 5-10 degrees.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is an INTERESTING forecast from the NWS for north Houston:

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low near 34 (getting a little close to 32 there...and with precip!)

What makes it even more interesting is that it is prob. too warm.

[Extremeweatherguy]

TWC is starting to take a step in the right direction too...here is a look at their forecast for next weekend:

[Portastorm]

The 12z run of the Euro looks VERY COLD next Sunday for us in Texas.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

But have y'all noticed this ... it seems like the 12z runs of the Euro end up looking a lot colder at the 6, 7 day mark than the 0z runs do. It seems like every night the 12z comes out, it looks super cold at the end of the run but then the next morning the 0z run kinda moderates that cold.

Weird.

[Tyler]

Houston calling for mid 50's and mid 30's next weekend. MUCH better forecast than earlier, but still too warm. But a good conservative forecast that gives them room to change.

Extreme, it is interesting there is a chance of precip with cold air moving in, we'll need to watch this situation closely!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z run of the Euro looks VERY COLD next Sunday for us in Texas.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

But have y'all noticed this ... it seems like the 12z runs of the Euro end up looking a lot colder at the 6, 7 day mark than the 0z runs do. It seems like every night the 12z comes out, it looks super cold at the end of the run but then the next morning the 0z run kinda moderates that cold.

Weird.

Brr... lets hope the 12Z run has a better handle on things...which I think it does. We have seen good consistancy overall with the Euro though...this makes me much more confident that cold air IS coming. That 12Z run seems to show 850mb temps. down to -2C to -6C over the area...which means that with good radiational cooling we would be able to get down to 21-28F.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Even if we do not get wintry precip. from this upcoming weekend event...the GFS is showing another chance early next week:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml

[wxman22]

Indeed this will have to be watched... Keep in mind unlike the GFS "Fantasy" snow storms that are 300 hrs + this is only 6-8 days out. With colder temps than forecast now and a system "sneaking" it's way under the ridge while the cold air is in place COULD call for some Small opportunities of a possibly wintry mix. By looking at the latest GFS this is the way I see it now, of course being 6+ days away will have to see. But my forcast calls for highs Saturday to reach no higher than the mid forty's areawide. and lows in the middle to upper 20's as far south as downtown & low to mid 30's along the coast. And periods of light rain showers doing the day. And Saturday night things could get interesting as the cold air filters in the light rain showers MAY change to light snow flurries mixed in with sleet pellets & maybe even some light freezing rain as the moisture tappers off. Next Sunday may even be colder then Saturday: RIGHT NOW I'm calling for highs on Sunday to not reach the mid forty's along & north of I-10 to get into the mid forty's along the coast. and lows in the low to mid 20's areawide and of course along the coast it'll be slightly warmer with temps in the upper 20's to mid thirty's (28F-35F). Looks like early next week could also get interesting but I wont make any comments on that yet until theres more model consincy. Note: Keep in mind this is my forcast right now I could be a little to high on the temps I'll change and update my forcast when necessary.