TESSA 2006 Texas Storm Conference

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TESSA 2006 Texas Storm Conference
Saturday, March 11, 2006, 8:00 AM - 5:00 PM
The Colleyville Center
Colleyville, Texas

Agenda

8:00 AM - Welcome & Announcements

8:15 AM - David Finfrock, NBC5 Weather Team.

NBC5 (KXAS-TV) is the birthplace of TV weather as we know it. The dedication to meteorology and public weather education established by Harold Taft decades ago continues at NBC5 today.

PREPARING THE TROOPS

8:30 AM - Gary Woodall, National Weather Service - Ft. Worth, Texas.

Super Storm Spotter Training Session - Tools for the Spotter's Situational Awareness

Gary Woodall is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office in Ft. Worth, Texas. He received his Bachelors Degree in meteorology from Florida State University in 1985, and his Masters Degree in 1988 from the University of Oklahoma. While at OU, he served on the university's severe storm intercept team and performed Doppler radar analyses of severe storms. He has developed spotter training materials which are used nationwide by the NWS.

Gary will present the second annual Super Storm Spotter session, a uniquely advanced storm spotter training program designed for spotters who have already attended National Weather Service basic and advanced training. This session will provide spotters with tools for maintaining situational awareness before and during a storm event including a review of the fundamental concepts of storm behavior and severe storm environments, methods for diagnosing storm environments through analysis of surface and upper air data, the examination of 2- and 3-dimensional radar analysis techniques, and the application of these tools toward recent severe weather events.

11:45 AM - Lunch - Colter's Barbeque - Catered, $7.00.

12:00 PM - Lunchtime Video, "Hurricane Katrina" from the "Storms of 2005" Charity DVD.

LIVING WITH RISK

12:30 PM - Tim Marshall, Storm Track

Hurricane Katrina: Target Slidell

Tim Marshall is one of the nation's leading storm damage experts. He has surveyed damage in the wake of tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, and hailstorms since 1976 and has published numerous articles on the topic and made several television appearances. Tim is an avid storm chaser and has observed 15 hurricanes and almost 200 tornadoes during the past 28 years.

Tim's talk focuses on his Hurricane Katrina chase and subsequent damage survey.

The DFW Tornado Scenario: With nearly 7 million residents, the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex is the largest metropolitan area in Tornado Alley. Experts agree it's just a matter of time before a violent, long-track tornado strikes the Metroplex, and the potential exists for it to become one of the deadliest natural disasters in US history. The following three presentations explore this risk.

1:20 PM - Scott Rae, North Central Texas Council of Governments

DFW Tornado Scenario - Loss Analysis

Scott is the Database Applications Manager at the North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG), the regional planning agency for the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area. Scott has worked at NCTCOG since 1990, and has been an active developer of geographic information system, database, and Internet/Intranet applications for a variety of demographic, environmental and related planning programs in North Central Texas. His project experience includes flood damage assessment, storm damage risk assessment, population projection, GIS weather radar integration, hazard mitigation, and the development of Internet access to local government data and mapping.

Scott's presentation is an analysis of scenarios in which a violent tornado tracks through the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex. Scott will discuss what impact a major tornado event would have on property loss and infrastructure.

1:50 PM - Alan Moller, National Weather Service - Ft. Worth, Texas

DFW Tornado Scenario - Human Impact

Alan Moller grew up in Ft. Worth, and crossed the Red River to study meteorology at OU, where he received B.S. and M.S. degrees. Alan participated in the first official chase program, the 1972 Tornado Intercept Project (TIP). He has chased storms since then, and has been involved in projects involving the development of spotter training, forecaster training, and forecasting experiments/training sessions, including a 1985 FSL forecast experiment, a 1986 national microburst symposium, the 1991 Tornado Symposium, and a forecasting stint for the 1995 VORTEX project.

Alan will discuss the human impact potential resulting from a violent, long-track tornado in DFW, including an estimate of injuries and fatalities.

2:20 PM - Martin Lisius, TESSA

DFW Tornado Scenario - Mitigation

Martin is an active storm chaser of 19 years, and the founder and Chairman of TESSA. He co-produced the storm spotter training video StormWatch with the National Weather Service, and founded StormStock and Tempest Tours Storm Chasing Expeditions. He has produced numerous weather-related programs including Chasing the Wind, Beneath Stormy Skies and The Chasers of Tornado Alley for PBS.

Martin will discuss the steps that people living in the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex can do to reduce the risk they face from a major tornado event.

2:40 PM - Break

CHASING THE WIND

2:50 PM - Charles Doswell, CIMMS

Chase Safety and the Consequences of Irresponsible Chasing

Dr. Charles A. Doswell III is a veteran storm chaser of more than 30 years, and former researcher at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Oklahoma. He currently works as a senior research scientist with the Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies (CIMMS), an affiliate of the University of Oklahoma. He is a certified consulting meteorologist and a professional photographer. Over the years, he has developed storm spotter training materials for the National Weather Service and was awarded the Sergey Soloviev Medal Award at the European Geosciences Union 2005 assembly in Vienna, Austria.

Chuck's presentation will include a discussion of egregious examples of irresponsible chasing behavior by various and sundry, and the likelihood of negative consequences for all storm chasers.

3:50 PM - Break

4:00 PM - Featured Speaker - David Hoadley

50 Years: Highlights of a Pioneer Storm Chaser

David Hoadley is considered by his peers to be the first-ever storm chaser. His strong desire to find and photograph storms made him a keen observer of cloud formations and led to early development of his own forecasting technique. Chasing from his Virginia home, he has logged 766,390 miles in 27 states and seen 169 tornadoes. 2006 will mark his 50th year of chasing. He has chased every year, except 1966 when he saved annual leave for his honeymoon. Along with Randy Zipser, he began Storm Track, the first newsletter for chasers, in 1977. His photography and articles have been published internationally. One of his photographs was published on a U.S. postage stamp in 2004.

David Hoadley will speak about his pioneering work as the first storm chaser including early forecasting and challenges, increasing public awareness of storm chasing, personal highlights, and the history we are making for the future.

5:10 PM - Raffle & Farewell

6:30 PM David Hoadley Dinner Tribute*

Join us for a dinner tribute to storm chasing legend David Hoadley. Location to be announced during the conference. *RSVP required. Please sign the dinner tribute list at the TESSA Store no later than 11:00 AM.

TESSA T-shirts, decals and videos can be purchased at the TESSA Store in the vendor area. Be sure to visit conference vendors to purchase their goods and services. Super Storm Spotter items will be available for purchase after the training session has ended. Raffle tickets can be purchased at the TESSA Store in the vendor area.

TESSA Mission Statement

The Texas Severe Storms Association (TESSA) is a 501(c)(3) national non-profit organization founded to bring together both amateur and professional severe weather scientists in an attempt to better understand dangerous storms through the collection and diffusion of knowledge.

http://www.tessa.org/meeting_directions_lodging.html

Texas Severe Storms Association PO Box 122222 Arlington, Texas 76012 http://www.tessa.org

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ARLINGTON, Texas -The Texas Severe Storms Association (TESSA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) will collaborate for the third Texas Storm Conference on March 11, 2006 at the Colleyville Center in Colleyville, Texas. Speakers will deliver presentations about severe weather. Topics include severe weather safety, storm spotter training and in-depth discussions on tornado meteorology.

The second TESSA Super Storm Spotter Session, will provide the highest level of training available to storm spotters anywhere in the country. The session will be presented by Ft. Worth NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist Gary Woodall.

"The Texas Storm Conference is a natural partnership between TESSA and the National Weather Service, since both groups are committed to severe weather education," said Martin Lisius, TESSA Chairman. "It's appropriate that an event of this quality and magnitude be held in Dallas-Ft. Worth, the largest metropolitan area in Tornado Alley, an area that experiences the effects of severe weather on a frequent basis. Over the years, Dallas-Ft. Worth has become the cradle of storm spotter training techniques utilized nationwide. The positive impacts that come from an event like this spread far beyond Texas."

The 2006 conference is expected to draw 500 attendees, including storm spotters, storm chasers, emergency management officials, forecasters, educators, students and members of the general public from across the US.

The Super Storm Spotter Session will begin in the morning and will be followed by additional presentations in the afternoon. The conference is free and open to the public. Seating is limited to 500.

The 2006 event will pay tribute to veteran storm chaser David Hoadley. Mr. Hoadley will give a presentation on his 50 years of storm chasing. A special dinner honoring Mr. Hoadley will take place after the conference.

The Texas Severe Storms Association is a 501(c)3 national non-profit organization dedicated to severe weather education. The group was founded in 1993 and is based in Arlington, Texas. It is the largest organization of its kind in the nation.

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TESSA Conference Note - DFW Tornado Disaster, Scenario 5

During the afternoon portion of the TESSA 2006 Texas Storm Conference (March 11, Colleyville), we will be discussing the DFW Tornado Disaster, Scenario 5. This scenario, created by Scott Rae at NCTCOG, tracks a violent tornado from central Arlington, through the Ballpark-Six Flags-Hurricane Harbor entertainment district, then into N. Dallas and ending along the US 75 corridor in Richardson-Plano.

The track and intensity is that of the Moore ’99 tornado.

Scott estimates potential property losses of $2.8 billion, with 38,778 structures impacted. He does not attempt a fatality/injury count. Al Moller will provide those numbers which, of course, will depend on many factors such as exact time of day and day of the week. For example, a worse case scenario relating to the Arlington entertainment district would likely be a Saturday, early evening in May, when there is a Ranger game, folks at Six Flags and Hurricane Harbor and folks eating dinner along restaurant row…simultaneously. The worse case scenario impacting motorists might be on a weekday, at about 5:30 PM, when DFW freeways are clogged. Add a tornado warning, some rain and hail, and expect gridlock. One analyzed stretch of I-30 in central DFW will accommodate 200,000 vehicles when congested. We estimated 1.5 persons per vehicle in that scenario, or 300,000 people with little or no shelter.

The bottom line is that a long-track violent tornado in the DFW Metroplex would cause a lot of damage, fatalities and injuries. We are certain of that. And, property loss is fairly easy to estimate once you have a track to work with. Timing will affect the fatality/injury count more than property loss, of course. Some reasonable fatality counts are so large that most people would not even believe them. The bigger counts would go well beyond Katrina.

For more details about the March 11 conference, see http://www.tessa.org

To review the details of Scenario 5, see the PDF file at http://www.nctcog.org/weather/features/scenario5.pdf



Martin Lisius

Chairman

TESSA

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8 Day's and counting till the 2006 Texas Storm Conference!