Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

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Extremeweatherguy
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#981 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:08 pm

Tyler wrote:Folks, the GFS has raised the WHITE FLAG. It has surrendered, 1047 high over Colorado at 78. Thats a good 15MB stronger than 12z. Euro, I now worship you.
If we do not see some major forecast changes by the NWS tomorrow...I will be shocked. This is spelling COLD to me for sure. ALL models are now in agreement.
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#982 Postby jasons2k » Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:08 pm

I think IAH will be 29 Sun AM. 32 at Hobby and 36 at Galveston.
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#983 Postby Tyler » Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:08 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_102.shtml
^^well folks...the GFS is now on board for a significant surge of arctic air. Take a look at hour 102...are those 850mb temps. below -6C I see? Yes! Finally, the GFS is in line with the other models. Look for some major changes to NWS forecasts (toward a colder look) over the next few days. Also, notice the thickness values down to 534! The bad thing is that hr. 102 is overnight on Sat night/sun morning. This only reinforces the idea of a pretty hard freeze with teens and lower 20s reaching all the way to Harris Co!^^


Extreme, you and I have witnessed the worst bust the GFS has done in a LONG time. The Euro has been spot on since 7 days ago. I think the GFS owes us an apology! :wink:
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#984 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:09 pm

Image
This image at hour 102 speaks for itself...cold aimed right at us.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#985 Postby Tyler » Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:09 pm

jschlitz wrote:I think IAH will be 29 Sun AM. 32 at Hobby and 36 at Galveston.


Shclitz, good forecast. However, now that the GFS has caught on, I'll be bold (when am I not) and go with 26 IAH, 28 Hobby, 34 Galveston.
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#986 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:10 pm

Tyler wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_102.shtml
^^well folks...the GFS is now on board for a significant surge of arctic air. Take a look at hour 102...are those 850mb temps. below -6C I see? Yes! Finally, the GFS is in line with the other models. Look for some major changes to NWS forecasts (toward a colder look) over the next few days. Also, notice the thickness values down to 534! The bad thing is that hr. 102 is overnight on Sat night/sun morning. This only reinforces the idea of a pretty hard freeze with teens and lower 20s reaching all the way to Harris Co!^^


Extreme, you and I have witnessed the worst bust the GFS has done in a LONG time. The Euro has been spot on since 7 days ago. I think the GFS owes us an apology! :wink:
yes, for sure. Lets just hope it doesn't have any last second flip flops up it's sleeve.
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#987 Postby Tyler » Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:10 pm

Extreme, you just posted the 18z GFS. :wink:

Edit: cool, you fixed it!
Last edited by Tyler on Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#988 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:11 pm

Tyler wrote:
jschlitz wrote:I think IAH will be 29 Sun AM. 32 at Hobby and 36 at Galveston.


Shclitz, good forecast. However, now that the GFS has caught on, I'll be bold (when am I not) and go with 26 IAH, 28 Hobby, 34 Galveston.
I will be even bolder and go 19 Conroe, 24 IAH, 27 Hobby and 32 Galveston.
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#989 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:13 pm

Tyler wrote:Extreme, you just posted the 18z GFS. :wink:
:lol: oops. Thanks for pointing that out. Just fixed it.
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#990 Postby Tyler » Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:14 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Tyler wrote:
jschlitz wrote:I think IAH will be 29 Sun AM. 32 at Hobby and 36 at Galveston.


Shclitz, good forecast. However, now that the GFS has caught on, I'll be bold (when am I not) and go with 26 IAH, 28 Hobby, 34 Galveston.
I will be even bolder and go 19 Conroe, 24 IAH, 27 Hobby and 32 Galveston.


LOL. :lol: I agree though, it could certainly get that cold!
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#991 Postby Kludge » Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:14 pm

Tyler wrote:Conroe would be the spot to report 19! Its always a good 5 to 10 degrees cooler than surrounding observation sites. Apperently, its in a "soup bowl", an area of lower elevation.


Ok... we're busted. At the Conroe airport we keep our thermometer in a sock full of dry ice, encased in a can of freon-12, and wrapped in one of hillary!'s old bras.

We do that to attract folks to move here and away from the Houston heat.

:lol:
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#992 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:15 pm

Kludge wrote:
Tyler wrote:Conroe would be the spot to report 19! Its always a good 5 to 10 degrees cooler than surrounding observation sites. Apperently, its in a "soup bowl", an area of lower elevation.


Ok... we're busted. At the Conroe airport we keep our thermometer in a sock full of dry ice, encased in a can of freon-12, and wrapped in one of hillary!'s old bras.

We do that to attract folks to move here and away from the Houston heat.

:lol:


:lol: :lol:
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#993 Postby Tyler » Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:18 pm

Kludge wrote:
Tyler wrote:Conroe would be the spot to report 19! Its always a good 5 to 10 degrees cooler than surrounding observation sites. Apperently, its in a "soup bowl", an area of lower elevation.


Ok... we're busted. At the Conroe airport we keep our thermometer in a sock full of dry ice, encased in a can of freon-12, and wrapped in one of hillary!'s old bras.

We do that to attract folks to move here and away from the Houston heat.

:lol:


Ha! :lol:
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#994 Postby jasons2k » Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:20 pm

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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#995 Postby Tyler » Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:21 pm

I'll post those high quality colored maps from Plymouth of the 0z GFS once they come out...
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#996 Postby Tyler » Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:23 pm

Here's day 3 0z GFS:
850Mb Temps (C):

Image

Cold air ready to pounce on SE TX.
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#997 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:24 pm

My big fear is that we get rain on Saturday and that there are puddles/wet roads on Saturday night, and then we dip to well below 32 and it freezes. Could be a real mess Sunday morning. I also think we need to watch the back edge of this precip. If it lasts later into Saturday, then I would not be surprised to see it end in a wintry mix since we will be entering such a cold airmass. Just some thoughts...we will need to watch models closely over the next few days. Would not even be surprised to see some isolated flurries on Saturday evening.
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#998 Postby Tyler » Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:25 pm

0z GFS day 3.5:

Here it comes:

Image
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#999 Postby Tyler » Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:26 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:My big fear is that we get rain on Saturday and that there are puddles/wet roads on Saturday night, and then we dip to well below 32 and it freezes. Could be a real mess Sunday morning. I also think we need to watch the back edge of this precip. If it lasts later into Saturday, then I would not be surprised to see it end in a wintry mix since we will be entering such a cold airmass. Just some thoughts...we will need to watch models closely over the next few days. Would not even be surprised to see some isolated flurries on Saturday evening.


Extreme, I agree, any standing water Saturday night could freeze and cause very tricky travel.
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#1000 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:26 pm

wow. look at that straight north flow right from the arctic itself. haha I am already starting to get excited over this, as if it was going to happen tomorrow.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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