Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[wxman22]

Things are looking awfully FRIGID this weekend I'll have a forcast update later on today.............

[Portastorm]

NWS forecasts are slowly adjusting ... last night Austin predicted a low Sunday morning of 34 and I was saying 28. This morning, NWS mets predict a low of 28 for metro Austin on Sunday morning. Given the model progs, wouldn't be surprised to see this deep even lower in the next 24 hrs.

Get ready folks!

[Tyler]

Friday...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers mainly in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 60s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Friday Night...Mostly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of showers mainly in the evening. Lows in the lower 40s.

Saturday...Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 50s.

Saturday Night...Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Colder. Lows 28 to 33.

Sunday...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.

Sunday Night...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the mid 60s.

Too warm for highs on Saturday, and a bit too warm Saturday night, though at least they are mentioning 20's. Temperatures will continute to be adjusted downard as we get closer!

[Tyler]

6z GFS, hour 102 850MB map:

Notice, temperatures are COOLER on this run. -7C to -8C invade SE TX. Needless to say, sunday morning looks VERY cold, with widespread 20's expected across the area, except the immediate coast.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I still think the NWS forecast is way too warm. Highs will not be the 50s..and lows will not be in the upper 20s...we will be at least 5-10 degrees colder. I am glad to see consistancy with the GFS though. It has looked cold for the last 3 runs.

[wxman22]

FORCAST DISCUSSION:(SHORT RANGE)Looks like Southeast Texas could be in a "big" freeze this weekend. With lows possibly in the 20's as far south as I-10 or to be more specific RIGHT NOW im "drawing" a line from Liberty to Houston (downtown) to sugar land & along and to the north & northwest of that line is were there could easily be lows in the 20's. If the airmass is as cold as some of the models think and there's good radiational cooling there could be a few isolated spots reporting the upper 10's (especcialy Conroe). As far as wintry precip right now it doesnt look likely as it seems that the precip will be long gone before the cold stuff gets here (If you believe the GFS) Friday looks to be the best bet right now for some much needed rain right now it looks to be mostly a shower event NOT a severe wx event. Rain totals could be anywhere from a 0.25-0.50 of a inch in the northern zones to as much as 0.50-1.00 in the southern zones were there will be more moisture & precitable waters may reach as much as 1.0-1.5 inches. (NOTE: We could get a little more precip then what im calling for right now I'll update the rain ammounts if neccesary) LONG RANGE: Looks like this weekends artic "blast" will be short lived as High pressure shifts off to the east and allows a warm return flow to take place starting Monday the GFS was advertising a shortwave to move through Tuesday but from the latest run it pushes it back for late next week. And then again it looks like by the end of next week more cold air could spill from it's "cup" in Canada. To early to tell but the next artic "blast" could last a little longer than the upcomming one but again right now it's a little to early to tell. Another thing I must note is if the long range models are correct we COULD be in a pattern fevorable for atleast 1 or 2 wintry weather events in the south before this seasons over. Only time will tell.


EARLY HURRICANE SEASON FORCAST: Right now it looks like the 2006 season could be very active AGAIN and it looks like an increasly chance for GULF systems & systems thet hit the Atlantic coast. But more on that later I forgot this is the winter wx board Everyone have a blessed nice day more later.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow. the cold front will be here in 66-70 hrs. Finally! We are talking about the cold in the short term. It WILL be happening this time!

[boca]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... 8&map.y=85

Here in Florida were getting into the action too my low for Sun night is 36°F. Impressive for this far south.

[boca]

A DEARTH OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE HIGH RAIN CHANCES...BUT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS FRONT MAY USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF
THE WINTER SEASON TO DATE. BE SURE TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AS THIS WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVES.

This is out of the Key West NWS impressive. Miami NWS is lame compared to Key West and Tampa, also Melbourne. What I noticed about Miami's NWS they don't go into detail about any paticular weather event and I don't know why.

[LAwxrgal]

New Orleans' AFD FINALLY mentions SOMETHING:

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED
A CONVEYER BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST TO SOUTH ARIZONA/SOUTH NEW
MEXICO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WEST FLOW WILL ADVECT UPPER AND MID
LAYER MOISTURE EAST ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ETA SHOWS THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN TOO BUT HOLDS ON TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY ENTRAINING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW.
WILL INTRODUCE CLOUD COVER AS EARLY AS THU NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY AND CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. GFS
WANTS TO DEVELOP A LOW OVER SOUTHWEST LA COASTAL WATERS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND TRACK THE LOW EAST...COLD AIR MASS JUST TO THE NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS MODEL SOUNDING AT 12Z SAT SHOWS A TEMP PROFILE
BELOW 0C ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND BORDERLINE ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A 06Z SAT MODEL SOUNDING
THESE AREAS. ADJACENT GRIDS SHOW NEIGHBORS WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE
INFO BEFORE ENTERTAINING MIXED PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA. IF WE FOLLOW GFS STEP FOR
STEP...MOISTURE PUSHES SOUTH BEFORE COLD AIR IS IN PLACE. ANOTHER
BIT...THTE DIFFERENCE FIELDS SHOW CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE IN STEP
WITH UPPER WEST FLOW OVER TEXAS FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST LA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...OVER AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE PONCHARTRAIN FRIDAY
EVENING AND GONE BY SAT MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WILL
ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR WEST AND SOUTH ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. ALL IN
ALL...A COLD RAIN WITH A FEW CLAPS FRIDAY NIGHT. 1045MB HIGH ON
THE PLAINS MOVING SOUTH SAT WILL YIELD ONE OF THE COLDEST AIR MASS
OVER THE AREA THUS FAR. MODERATION IN TEMP WILL BE SLOW AS MAIN
TROUGH WILL MOVE BACK NORTH SLOWLY THROUGH TUESDAY.

[drezee]

Now that is snow over the South!!!!

[Tyler]

But the precip is gone by the time the cold air gets here. You guys to the east are lucky.

[Tyler]

FORCAST DISCUSSION:(SHORT RANGE)Looks like Southeast Texas could be in a "big" freeze this weekend. With lows possibly in the 20's as far south as I-10 or to be more specific RIGHT NOW im "drawing" a line from Liberty to Houston (downtown) to sugar land & along and to the north & northwest of that line is were there could easily be lows in the 20's. If the airmass is as cold as some of the models think and there's good radiational cooling there could be a few isolated spots reporting the upper 10's (especcialy Conroe). As far as wintry precip right now it doesnt look likely as it seems that the precip will be long gone before the cold stuff gets here (If you believe the GFS) Friday looks to be the best bet right now for some much needed rain right now it looks to be mostly a shower event NOT a severe wx event. Rain totals could be anywhere from a 0.25-0.50 of a inch in the northern zones to as much as 0.50-1.00 in the southern zones were there will be more moisture & precitable waters may reach as much as 1.0-1.5 inches. (NOTE: We could get a little more precip then what im calling for right now I'll update the rain ammounts if neccesary) LONG RANGE: Looks like this weekends artic "blast" will be short lived as High pressure shifts off to the east and allows a warm return flow to take place starting Monday the GFS was advertising a shortwave to move through Tuesday but from the latest run it pushes it back for late next week. And then again it looks like by the end of next week more cold air could spill from it's "cup" in Canada. To early to tell but the next artic "blast" could last a little longer than the upcomming one but again right now it's a little to early to tell. Another thing I must note is if the long range models are correct we COULD be in a pattern fevorable for atleast 1 or 2 wintry weather events in the south before this seasons over. Only time will tell.


EARLY HURRICANE SEASON FORCAST: Right now it looks like the 2006 season could be very active AGAIN and it looks like an increasly chance for GULF systems & systems thet hit the Atlantic coast. But more on that later I forgot this is the winter wx board Everyone have a blessed nice day more later.

Nice discussion man. Very good. Cold weather ahead for SE TX for sure.

[Tyler]

With the GFS trending colder, finally along the lines of the EURO, I bet the lowest we see at IAH sunday morning is 22. That would be a record low, and its quite possible.

Record lows this weekend at IAH (Houston):

Saturday: 20 (1981)
Sunday: 24 (1988)
Monday: 26 (1963)
Tuesday: 27 (1963)

[aggiecutter]

I agree with wxman22 in that this weekends cold will be transient and whats coming the next 7-10 days will be more prolonged cold with some wintry precip. Ironically, as we get closer to this weekend the GFS is increasing the intensity of the cold air,1040mb high, and the EURO is starting to back off, 1033mb high. The 2 models have flipped flopped from yesterday. Now, I guess the GFS will be the model of choice.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.105.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am predicting 19-21F at my house on Sunday morning.

[Tyler]

Euro having a bit of a hiccup (did this in December). It WILL correct itself at 12z.

[gboudx]

If IAH will hit 22, then DFW NWS better get on the ball because they're "only" forecasting a low of 25.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I agree with wxman22 in that this weekends cold will be transient and whats coming the next 7-10 days will be more prolonged cold with some wintry precip. Ironically, as we get closer to this weekend the GFS is increasing the intensity of the cold air,1040mb high, and the EURO is starting to back off, 1033mb high. The 2 models have flipped flopped from yesterday. Now, I guess the GFS will be the model of choice.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.105.gif

actually the high in the euro is 1038mb ONCE in the plains. It will still be 1040mb+ in Canada.

[aggiecutter]

Now, this here will be the real deal...

Ensembles 0z...


http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... 0_usbg.gif