Models show development near azores

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I give this cyclone a zero percent chance at becoming tropical. I'm starting to think that the season will start normally.

[mike815]

yeah me too

[Coredesat]

Mentioned in the 7:05 AM discussion:

THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING ENTERING THE E ATLC NEAR 32N21W EXTENDING S
TO 23N24W WITH A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE REGION
AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR 32N29W TO 29N31W THEN NW AS A COLD
FRONT BEYOND 32N37W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER AFRICA COVERS THE
FAR E ATLC E OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

It's looking marginally better today, but it's still frontal and shouldn't become otherwise unless something really weird happens.

[JamesFromMaine2]

well one model or whatever it is has a 962mb low pressure area at 120hours

[mike815]

hmmmm

[JamesFromMaine2]

[senorpepr]

well one model or whatever it is has a 962mb low pressure area at 120hours

Actually, that 962mb low is a seperate low. The low in question is the one near the Canary Islands (as depicted in the image above)--the 1012mb low.

[mike815]

thanks for clearing that up

[P.K.]

well one model or whatever it is has a 962mb low pressure area at 120hours

Actually, that 962mb low is a seperate low. The low in question is the one near the Canary Islands (as depicted in the image above)--the 1012mb low.

Two cold fronts in a week over here????

(Anticyclonic gloom here for ages now)

[Yarrah]

Is it possible for a normal area of low pressure to become tropical or even a sub-tropical low this north? Don't you need a better SST in order to get something like that?

[Coredesat]

Vince became tropical in the same area, and Epsilon and Zeta proved that you don't need 26C (or even 22C) waters to be a tropical cyclone.

TWD:

AT THE SFC...A 998 MB LOW IS
LOCATED NEAR 31N26W. A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE LOW ALONG
31N22W 26N26W 30N38W. BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
SWIRLING AROUND THE LOW WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED RAIN IN THE
EASTERN QUADRANTS FROM 31N-34N BETWEEN 18W-24W. BROKEN CLOUDS
EXTEND WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THIS LOW TO DRIFT TO THE EAST AND SLOWLY WEAKEN.

Should remain extratropical, but it'll be hanging around for a while.

[JonathanBelles]

Vince became tropical in the same area, and Epsilon and Zeta proved that you don't need 26C (or even 22C) waters to be a tropical cyclone.

TWD:

AT THE SFC...A 998 MB LOW IS
LOCATED NEAR 31N26W. A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE LOW ALONG
31N22W 26N26W 30N38W. BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
SWIRLING AROUND THE LOW WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED RAIN IN THE
EASTERN QUADRANTS FROM 31N-34N BETWEEN 18W-24W. BROKEN CLOUDS
EXTEND WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THIS LOW TO DRIFT TO THE EAST AND SLOWLY WEAKEN.

Should remain extratropical, but it'll be hanging around for a while.

>>>(Anticyclonic gloom here for ages now) anticyclonic means???

[P.K.]

[quote="fact789" ] anticyclonic means???[/quote]

Cyclonic winds are anticlockwise, anticyclonic winds are clockwise. (In the Northern Hemisphere)

Basically I've forgotten what colour the sky is when it isn't cloudy.....

[JonathanBelles]

ok thanks

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Is it possible for a normal area of low pressure to become tropical or even a sub-tropical low this north? Don't you need a better SST in order to get something like that?

Yes it is possible, though not likely especially this time of year.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Speaking of not always needing warm water (26 C, or higher) to become a tropical storm, or even a hurricane here is an article on just such a rare type of situation. It is about infamous Hurricane Michael from 2000. I posted it a few days back, and thought it might be an interesting read in relation to this subject:


http://www.novaweather.net/Hurricane_Mi ... el_MSC.pdf

[Margie]

The surface low has become better organized between this aft and this evng.

However it doesn't have the advantage that Zeta had...the energy from a tropical wave was pulled north into Zeta when it was forming, to give it a kick start.

Most likely nothing will come of it, but there is a small chance it can develop further. It is right at the same lon where Zeta formed, but even further south than Zeta.

[Epsilon_Fan]

Looks pretty unimposing to me...

[Coredesat]

The low has deepened a bit:

BROAD
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF 18N BETWEEN THE
CANARY ISLANDS AND 40W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WRAPS AROUND A
995 MB GALE LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N23W ENTERING THE E ATLC FROM A
TRIPLE POINT NEAR 31N17W ALONG 22N27W TO 27N38W. DRY UPPER AIR
COVERS THE AREA THUS LIMITING CONVECTION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS N
OF 29N INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS TO
THE S WITH THE MEAN AXIS INLAND OVER AFRICA COVERING THE FAR E
ATLC E OF 33W.

[P.K.]

WONT50 LFPW 080846

A
SECURITE ON METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,

WARNING NR 75 , WEDNESDAY 8 FEBRUARY 2006 AT 0845 UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS, WEDNESDAY 8 AT 00 UTC
LOW 997 31N24W MOVING NORTHEAST, EXPECTED 996 33N19W BY 09/00UTC,
THEN EXPECTED 999 33N18W BY 09/12UTC.
HIGH 1034 IN BISCAY SLOW MOVING, DECLINING 1021 BY 09/12UTC.

WEST FARADAY
FROM 09/03UTC TO 09/12UTC.
SOUTHERLY AT TIMES 8.

JOSEPHINE
FROM 09/03UTC TO 09/21UTC.
EASTERLY AT TIMES 8.

AGADIR
FROM 09/09UTC TO 09/15UTC.
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT TIMES 8.=