What Area is at most risk this season?OPINONS WELCOME...

[MiamiensisWx]

I have a feeling that southeastern Florida (Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties) will get hit by a major hurricane from the eastern side of the state. If you think about it, these three counties have not seen a major hurricane in quite a while. Frances and Jeanne made landfall in east-central (not southeast) Florida, and only Jeanne was considered a major hurricane at landfall. Wilma dosn't count because it made landfall in southwest Florida and was a Category Two when it went through southeastern Florida. This means that southeast Florida has not yet recently seen a major hurricane. I have a strong feeling that this empty streak is coming to an end because southeastern Florida has usually been hit at least once during active cycles, such as that in the 1940s. The day is coming...

[Jim Cantore]

heres my risk map

blue = No risk
green = almost no risk
yellow = low risk
Orange = moderate risk
red = high risk
black = extremely high risk

risk for hurricane strike


Just for fun, risk of a cat 5 strike

[Extremeweatherguy]

heres my risk map

blue = No risk
green = almost no risk
yellow = low risk
Orange = moderate risk
red = high risk
black = extremely high risk

risk for hurricane strike


Just for fun, risk of a cat 5 strike

I don't think that anyone should have a "moderate" risk of a Category 5. There have only been 3 Category 5 landfalls in history...so to have places under what would probably be a 50% chance is probably not accurate. The risk levels for Category 5 should go:

Blue = Less than a 0.001% chance
Green = Less than a 0.1% chance
Yellow = 1% chance or less
Orange = 5% chance or less
Red = 10% chance or less
Black = 15% chance or less

[Jim Cantore]

15% for a cat 5 is extremely high for anywhere

I like the way you put that one though

[no advance]

Miami and Northern Windward Is.

[jhamps10]

The area most at risk this year.... Say it isn't so but I have to say the GOM from AL to Houston ....

My second risk area would be SE Florida. And when I say at risk being at risk of Cat 4 or 5....

This is going to be a long,long season this year

[Scorpion]

It is way to early to tell which areas could be at most risk. The most favorable areas for landfall however might be the Outer Banks, the Leeward Islands, and perhaps Texas for early-season development.

[tornadochaser1986]

i agree i wouldnt be suprised if we see most storms in the atlantic and only a few in the gulf

[mike815]

yep me too

[sprink52]

ALL of Florida...except maybe Jacksonville.

[vbhoutex]

I love all this speculation with no reasoning as to why. Anyone care to ante up WHY they think what they are predicting?

[Scorpion]

I thinking of a season similar to 2003, with more storms. Texas could be at risk in June and July to BOC and Caribbean storms, North Carolina could be at risk for recurvers, and the Leewards could be at risk for recurvers as well.

[sprink52]

I have read that we are entering a La Nina period. That along with a trend for the Bermuda high's position over the last two seasons could be the ingredients for a Florida hurricane cocktail.

[Scorpion]

Yes the Bermuda High's position is crucial this year. I am thinking it will be stronger than last years, but in a different position than '04 that should prevent Florida hits from the east, and instead cause more recurvers and NC hits.

[ROCK]

I love all this speculation with no reasoning as to why. Anyone care to ante up WHY they think what they are predicting?

Because the other day it was real windy here and then it hit me...... I saw in my mind a huge storm slamming into the NE coast, then another one into FL and then finally TX......sort of like Final Destination III.....

I just love speculation.....

[Steve]

Who knows? But it's nice to see about 40% of the posters targeting their specific areas for this year. I guess we'll be playing tug of war over wobbles before long too.

Hey, it's FEBRUARY. NO ONE knows who's most vulnerable (except us here in da bowl). As for who's going to get the most hits, stay tuned to water temperature profiles. Watch in May. Then watch again in June and July. Seems like the largest area where there's reversal from anomalously cold to anomalously warm (sp?) seems to open up an area. We saw that last year along the Gulf Coast.

Also watch the next long wave trough and see where it sets up (in the Bastardi Means), if it is not transient. That's liable to be the last one and should portend either the max or where the high setup will be for the summer (or at least sometimes it does that). If La Nina holds, it will be a trough splitting season meaning a piece could easily peel off into the gulf early on, and if intersected via a wave, could produce something early. But otherwise we just have to wait and see.

Let's put it this way: If Bastardi, Dr. Gray, Gary Grey and Independentwx were unable to hit their landfalls last year, most of you will fail this year

Heh. But I'll be looking at stuff toward April and May. Until then, it's nothing but a crapshoot.

Steve

[jdray]

ALL of Florida...except maybe Jacksonville.

You do realize that the Jacksonville area has a storm pass within 60 miles or closer at least once every 4-5 years right?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm going to say because there appears to be a Azores low...Which has not been really like this sense the 2001/2002 season it could mean more recurvers/fish. Also the Atlantic sst's are cooler. On the other hand if they can get pass the trough La nina should allow for less shear over the central Atlatnic/Caribbean. What I would watch out for is the Gulf of Mexico. The Loop current looks the strongest I'v seen ever. We might get some bombing over the Gulf this year.

So here is my thinking...
If a storm develops slowly intill around 40 to 45 west. Then La nina should faver development.

2# A fast developing cape verde storm will recurve. Not 100 percent remember Isabel.

3# The monsters this year should be over the Gulf of Mexico. Maybe the Western Caribbean.

My numbers are
14 named storms
6 hurricanes
3 Majors

[LaPlaceFF]

AMEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!