Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Tyler]

And of course with a stronger high, comes yet another colder run. Brunt of cold air shifted west AGAIN.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

And of course with a stronger high, comes yet another colder run. Brunt of cold air shifted west AGAIN.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

Holy! -9C 850mb air! That would yield widespread 18-22F readings were we to see that "prefect" radiational cooling that the NWS expects. What a bust this will be for the NWS (and on-air mets too, who probably will still be 10+F too high in tonight's forecasts).

[Tyler]

Ch. 2 went pretty much with the NWS this weekend.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ch. 2 went pretty much with the NWS this weekend.

how sad for them. they will bust big time. Hopefully Houstonions will get enough warning before this cold snap...but I am afraid that they will not. It will be a big shocker when the Sunday morning AFD by the NWS says, "The forecasted low of 30 has busted. This morning Hooks is sitting at 17F, Bush at 20F, and Hobby at 24F. Due to our lack of warning; All exposed animals and sensitive plants have parished. We are sorry we did not warn you earlier, but we were too afraid that we would give an inaccurate forecast. Well, looks like we did anyway."

[weatherrabbit_tx]

HOLY CRAP. Its a 1055 (yes, that is correct, no typo) over Colorado at 66. Watch out...

5MB stronger than previous run. Backtracking, backtracking, backtracking...

its getting stronger on every run it seems!

[Tyler]

Ch. 2 went pretty much with the NWS this weekend.

how sad for them. they will bust big time. Hopefully Houstonions will get enough warning before this cold snap...but I am afraid that they will not. It will be a big shocker when the Sunday morning AFD by the NWS says, "The forecasted low of 30 has busted. This morning Hooks is sitting at 17F, Bush at 20F, and Hobby at 24F. Due to our lack of warning; All exposed animals and sensitive plants have parished. We are sorry we did not warn you earlier, but we were too afraid that we would give an inaccurate forecast. Well, looks like we did anyway."

LOL, ya I agree they are going to bust. However, I'm not going to go quite as cold with temps as you are. I'll say 21 Hooks, 24 Bush, and 27 Hobby, Galveston 32. It will be interesting this weekend, to say the least.

[LAwxrgal]

NOLA NWS:

...COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT VERY COLD AIR BOTTLED IN NORTHERN
CANADA WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD WELL INTO THE UNITED STATES LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. (well duh!!!) AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT A HARD FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...EAST-CENTRAL AND UPPER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. A LIGHT
FREEZE MAY EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE COASTAL MARSHES AND ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE UNCOMFORTABLE WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND...AT TIMES AS LOW AS THE MIDDLE TEENS.
RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO REVIEW YOUR PREPARATION
PLANS FOR COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY FOR THE CHANGES IN
YOUR ENVIRONMENT AND SURROUDINGS SINCE HURRICANE KATRINA. FOR
PERSONS LIVING IN PORTABLE HOMES AND TRAILERS...REVIEW WHATEVER
PRECAUTIONS ARE NEEDED TO AVOID FREEZE DAMAGE TO EXPOSED PIPES AND
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTIONS IF THE COLD WEATHER ONSETS THIS
WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE AN EXTRAORDINARILY HIGH RISK OF FIRES
DURING THIS PERIOD...DUE IN PART TO EXTENSIVE USE OF HEATERS AND
STRONG WINDS THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THE COLD TEMPERATURES. TAKE
APPROPRIATE MEASURES TO REMOVE FLAMMABLES AND FIRE PRONE MATERIALS
WELL AWAY FROM HEAT SOURCES.

STAY TUNED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FOR LATER
STATEMENTS THAT WILL DETAIL THE IMPACTS AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THIS
POTENTIALLY VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY WEEKEND.

[Tyler]

HOLY CRAP. Its a 1055 (yes, that is correct, no typo) over Colorado at 66. Watch out...

5MB stronger than previous run. Backtracking, backtracking, backtracking...

its getting stronger on every run it seems!

Ever since 12z yesterday, yes it has.

[Tyler]

NOLA NWS:

...COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT VERY COLD AIR BOTTLED IN NORTHERN
CANADA WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD WELL INTO THE UNITED STATES LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. (well duh!!!) AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT A HARD FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...EAST-CENTRAL AND UPPER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. A LIGHT
FREEZE MAY EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE COASTAL MARSHES AND ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE UNCOMFORTABLE WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND...AT TIMES AS LOW AS THE MIDDLE TEENS.
RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO REVIEW YOUR PREPARATION
PLANS FOR COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY FOR THE CHANGES IN
YOUR ENVIRONMENT AND SURROUDINGS SINCE HURRICANE KATRINA. FOR
PERSONS LIVING IN PORTABLE HOMES AND TRAILERS...REVIEW WHATEVER
PRECAUTIONS ARE NEEDED TO AVOID FREEZE DAMAGE TO EXPOSED PIPES AND
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTIONS IF THE COLD WEATHER ONSETS THIS
WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE AN EXTRAORDINARILY HIGH RISK OF FIRES
DURING THIS PERIOD...DUE IN PART TO EXTENSIVE USE OF HEATERS AND
STRONG WINDS THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THE COLD TEMPERATURES. TAKE
APPROPRIATE MEASURES TO REMOVE FLAMMABLES AND FIRE PRONE MATERIALS
WELL AWAY FROM HEAT SOURCES.

STAY TUNED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FOR LATER
STATEMENTS THAT WILL DETAIL THE IMPACTS AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THIS
POTENTIALLY VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY WEEKEND.

This will be the coldest air of the season, someone needs to tell the Houston NWS that...

[aggiecutter]

My winter storm is starting to take shape. The low will track out of the northern gulf along the temperature gradient, which will be lined up SW to NE from SE Texas to the lower Ohio Valley:

"AN EXACT STORM TRACK CAN NOT BE DETERMINED DURING A WEEK 2 OUTLOOK BUT A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT WOULD FAVOR A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS."

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 16 - 22 2006: THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN MAINTAINS A SHARP 500-HPA RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO ALASKA WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. TODAYS OFFICIAL BLEND CHART SHOWS 500-HPA POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WITH A MAXIMUM MAGNITUDE OF 270 METERS CENTERED AT 150W-50N. MEANWHILE... BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FOR THE DEEP SOUTH. THE HEIGHT ANOMALY PATTERN SUGGESTS A STRENGTHENING NORTH/SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOR THE CONUS. TEMPERATURE TOOLS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND ALONG WITH THE CPC AUTOMATED FORECAST SUGGEST THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY EXPAND SOUTHWARD COMPARED TO THE DAY 6-10 PERIOD. FOR ALASKA... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST EXCEPT FOR THE PANHANDLE. AN EXACT STORM TRACK CAN NOT BE DETERMINED DURING A WEEK 2 OUTLOOK BUT A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT WOULD FAVOR A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER... BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS FLORIDA WHICH IS TYPICAL OF A LA NINA PATTERN. THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR ALASKA EXCLUDING THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND PANHANDLE.

[Brent]

NWS forecast for here:

.FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 36. EAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
40S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 18.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

The point forecast has 16 Sunday Morning.

[Stormcenter]

NWS forecast for here:

.FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 36. EAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
40S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 18.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

The point forecast has 16 Sunday Morning.

What part of Alabama do you live in Brent?

[Dean4Storms]

Even the Mobile and Tallahassee AFD's are beginning to mention of a possibility of a change over to wintry precip. on the backside of this low come Fri. Nite/Sat morning especially in their Northerly zones.

[Ivanhater]

low of 27 for sunday night!

Mobile/Pensacola AFD

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL BE EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN FOR NOW. BUT (AND
THIS IS A BIG BUT) WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH VERY CLOSELY TO MAKE SURE
THE ELEMENTS FOR WINTRY PRECIP IN THE NORTHERN ZONES DOES NOT COME
TOGETHER AT THE LAST MINUTE BEFORE THE MOISTURE GETS OUT OF HERE.THE BIG STORY FOR THE WEEKEND...GETTING COLDER. SATURDAY PROMISES
TO BE A BRISK DAY. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO HARD FREEZE
TERRITORY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S INLAND. WE ARE
CONCERNED THAT THE SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS COULD EVEN BE LOWER AS AXIS OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIGHT ON TOP OF US AND CLOUD COVER WILL
BE LIMITED. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES...AS THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
SUGGESTS UPCOMING PROTECTION WILL BE NEEDED FOR OUTDOOR PETS AND
COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS. /10

[/b]

maybe some snow for the gulfcoast! please please please!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

NOLA NWS:

...COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT VERY COLD AIR BOTTLED IN NORTHERN
CANADA WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD WELL INTO THE UNITED STATES LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. (well duh!!!) AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT A HARD FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...EAST-CENTRAL AND UPPER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. A LIGHT
FREEZE MAY EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE COASTAL MARSHES AND ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE UNCOMFORTABLE WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND...AT TIMES AS LOW AS THE MIDDLE TEENS.
RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO REVIEW YOUR PREPARATION
PLANS FOR COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY FOR THE CHANGES IN
YOUR ENVIRONMENT AND SURROUDINGS SINCE HURRICANE KATRINA. FOR
PERSONS LIVING IN PORTABLE HOMES AND TRAILERS...REVIEW WHATEVER
PRECAUTIONS ARE NEEDED TO AVOID FREEZE DAMAGE TO EXPOSED PIPES AND
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTIONS IF THE COLD WEATHER ONSETS THIS
WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE AN EXTRAORDINARILY HIGH RISK OF FIRES
DURING THIS PERIOD...DUE IN PART TO EXTENSIVE USE OF HEATERS AND
STRONG WINDS THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THE COLD TEMPERATURES. TAKE
APPROPRIATE MEASURES TO REMOVE FLAMMABLES AND FIRE PRONE MATERIALS
WELL AWAY FROM HEAT SOURCES.

STAY TUNED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FOR LATER
STATEMENTS THAT WILL DETAIL THE IMPACTS AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THIS
POTENTIALLY VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY WEEKEND.

This will be the coldest air of the season, someone needs to tell the Houston NWS that...

how sad is it that we non-professionals will probably do a better job than the NWS with this forecast! I mean come on! You would think that a trained met would see that the models and pattern spell COLD. No, not a chilly 30...but a COLD 19-24. I am amazed by the poor forecasts I see sometimes being put out by these weather agencies. I mean how can the NWS take -5 to -10C 850mb temps and 530 thickness and mix that with PERFECT radiational cooling and only forecast 29-30? Houston needs to start stepping up! I mean look at all these other NWS discussions and forecasts. They are much more in line.

[Tyler]

Dallas and Corpus Christi are on the ball here. I don't think offices coordinated with each other today. Check this out:

This is the forecast for Brazos County (College Station). This forecast is made by Houston:

Friday...Showers and thunderstorms. Highs around 60. South winds 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming west and increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent in the morning Decreasing to 60 percent in the afternoon.

Friday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening...Then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows in the upper 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday...Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 50s.

Saturday Night...Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Colder. Lows in the upper 20s.

Sunday...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.

Sunday Night...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s.


Now check out the forecast for the county north of that one, Robertson county. This forecast is done by Dallas.

Friday...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and isolated thunderstorms in the morning...Then a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 60s. Temperatures falling into the 40s in the afternoon. South winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest 15 to 20 mph late in the afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Friday Night...Partly cloudy. Colder. Lows in the mid 30s. North winds 15 to 20 mph.

Saturday...Mostly clear. Much colder. Highs in the mid 40s. Lows in the mid 20s.

Saturday Night...Mostly clear. Much colder. Highs in the mid 40s. Lows in the mid 20s.

Sunday...Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 50s. Lows in the mid 30s.

Sunday Night...Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 50s. Lows in the mid 30s.


Check that out! No coordination WHATSOEVER. Apperently, if you cross the county line, temperatures will go down 10 degrees!!

For the same exact area, this is what the NWS offices think:

Dallas: Forecasts mid 60's in the morning, highs falling into the 40s in the afternoon
Houston: Just says highs around 60.

Dallas: Says mid 40's as highs saturday.
Houston: Says mid 50's. 10 degrees warmer.

Dallas: Says mid 20's for lows.
Houston: Says upper 20's.

I think we know which office is correct here. Dallas. Good job Dallas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Dallas and Corpus Christi are on the ball here. I don't think offices coordinated with each other today. Check this out:

This is the forecast for Brazos County (College Station). This forecast is made by Houston:

Friday...Showers and thunderstorms. Highs around 60. South winds 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming west and increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent in the morning Decreasing to 60 percent in the afternoon.

Friday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening...Then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows in the upper 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday...Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 50s.

Saturday Night...Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Colder. Lows in the upper 20s.

Sunday...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.

Sunday Night...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s.


Now check out the forecast for the county north of that one, Robertson county. This forecast is done by Dallas.

Friday...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and isolated thunderstorms in the morning...Then a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 60s. Temperatures falling into the 40s in the afternoon. South winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest 15 to 20 mph late in the afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Friday Night...Partly cloudy. Colder. Lows in the mid 30s. North winds 15 to 20 mph.

Saturday...Mostly clear. Much colder. Highs in the mid 40s. Lows in the mid 20s.

Saturday Night...Mostly clear. Much colder. Highs in the mid 40s. Lows in the mid 20s.

Sunday...Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 50s. Lows in the mid 30s.

Sunday Night...Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 50s. Lows in the mid 30s.


Check that out! No coordination WHATSOEVER. Apperently, if you cross the county line, temperatures will go down 10 degrees!!

For the same exact area, this is what the NWS offices think:

Dallas: Forecasts mid 60's in the morning, highs falling into the 40s in the afternoon
Houston: Just says highs around 60.

Dallas: Says mid 40's as highs saturday.
Houston: Says mid 50's. 10 degrees warmer.

Dallas: Says mid 20's for lows.
Houston: Says upper 20's.

I think we know which office is correct here. Dallas. Good job Dallas.

yeah good job Dallas...except I still think they have lows too warm. I predict teens for college station on Sunday morning.

[Extremeweatherguy]

also...how would be 29 in College station and 30 at IAH. Usually there is a 5-10 degree temp. difference there, yet the Houston NWS is forecasting lows about the same...hmmm...major problem there. And the funny thing is Victoria is forecasting 28. I HIGHLY DOUBT that victoria would be colder than college station!

[gboudx]

I'm assuming your quoting Dallas-proper in that forecast. Cus, here's the Saturday forecast for me, on the east-side of Dallas.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 41. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low near 20. Northwest wind around 10 mph.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm assuming your quoting Dallas-proper in that forecast. Cus, here's the Saturday forecast for me, on the east-side of Dallas.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 41. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low near 20. Northwest wind around 10 mph.

He was quoting roberston county...near waco...well to the south of Dallas. He is comparing robertson Co. (in the dallas NWS limits) to the college station area (in the Houston NWS limits) and showing how the Houston forecast is really poor.