Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Tyler]

also...how would be 29 in College station and 30 at IAH. Usually there is a 5-10 degree temp. difference there, yet the Houston NWS is forecasting lows about the same...hmmm...major problem there. And the funny thing is Victoria is forecasting 28. I HIGHLY DOUBT that victoria would be colder than college station!

Agreed. The NWS obviously did not coordinate today.

This morning's low was 34 at IAH, and the airmass overhead really wasn't all that cold, it was becuase of IDEAL radiational cooling conditions (the high clouds that were overhead dissipated).

An airmass of -7 to -9 C will be overhead saturday night, and the NWS is going to sit there and tell me the temperature is only going to be 4 degrees colder!? You have got to be pulling my leg here. At least mid 20s for IAH seem a good bet, take it to the bank. And highs saturday will not go above 47, take that to the bank as well.

Also, temperatures friday evening will QUICKLY tumble behind the front. This is an old fashoined blue 'norther we have coming through here. Temperatures will likely fall 10 degrees in an hour behind the front, as it pushes across SE TX. Temperatures friday evening will be in the mid 50's, when the front moves through, temperatures will RAPIDLY fall to around 40. People better be ready for that, as well as the hard freeze sunday morning across inland sections of SE TX.

[Brent]

NWS forecast for here:

.FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 36. EAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
40S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 18.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

The point forecast has 16 Sunday Morning.

What part of Alabama do you live in Brent?

East Central... near the Georgia line about midway between Birmingham and Atlanta. About an hour south of I-20.

[LAwxrgal]

Once again however the local mets in their 6 pm reports give mixed signals. One of them advertised "the coldest air we've seen here in quite sometime" and yet, said the nighttime lows on Sat and Sun nights would be anywhere from 23-27 north of the lake and 30-35 south of the lake. He's saying the reason for the temperature difference will be the brisk northerly winds... although I suspect with the new model data those numbers will have to be adjusted downward...

The other local met was so nonchalant, he suspects the trough will begin lifting out on SUNDAY...

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is my latest NORTH HOUSTON (Including Spring, Klein, Tomball and the Woodlands) prediction:

Tonight - Lows in the 30s under mostly clear skies. Cold.

Tomorrow - Mostly sunny and cool. High in the lower 60s with a cool breeze.

Tomorrow night - Increasing clouds. Lows in the lower to middle 40s.

Friday - Cloudy and breezy. Becoming cooler. High in the lower 60s. 30% chance of rain.

Friday night - Temperatures in the 50s during the evening, but dropping into the upper 30s overnight. 60% chance of rain.

Saturday - Mostly cloudy, windy and cold. High in the middle 40s. 20% chance of a light shower.

Saturday night - Clearing and very cold. Winds dying to near calm. Lows in the lower to middle 20s with isolated teens. Coldest air since March 2003 when IAH hit 22.

Sunday - Mostly sunny and chilly. High in the lower to middle 50s. Breezy.

Sunday night - Clear, calm and cold. Low near 30.

[PTrackerLA]

Once again however the local mets in their 6 pm reports give mixed signals. One of them advertised "the coldest air we've seen here in quite sometime" and yet, said the nighttime lows on Sat and Sun nights would be anywhere from 23-27 north of the lake and 30-35 south of the lake. He's saying the reason for the temperature difference will be the brisk northerly winds... although I suspect with the new model data those numbers will have to be adjusted downward...

The other local met was so nonchalant, he suspects the trough will begin lifting out on SUNDAY...

Definately appears that we will warm up quickly after this weekend with 70's possible by midweek. Keep in mind the lake has a huge moderating factor on temps especially when the winds stay up, hence it's very hard for New Orleans and surrounding areas to get below freezing. NWS is forecasting 26 in Baton Rouge and I suspect it will be more like 23/24 and 26/27 for Lafayette.

[CajunMama]

I'm trying to decide if Tyler and Extremeweatherguy are having a posting contest in this thread!

[Extremeweatherguy]

coldest 850mb temps. as shown on latest model runs:

NOGAPS = -10C to -15C
EURO = -8C to -10C
GFS = about -8C or -9C
NAM = colder than -6C

Bottom line is that these numbers are very cold. The NOGAPS numbers resemble the numbers seen during the December 1989 arctic outbreak! Looking at these numbers...I would have to say that teens look very very possible in parts of SE Texas on Sunday morning with WIDESPREAD temps. below 27. This could very well turn out being the coldest air since 1996 (when IAH hit 19F). Can't wait to see the 0Z GFS and 0Z NAM which should start to come in within a few hours. If numbers are still this low tomorrow, then I have no doubt that the NWS will HAVE TO lower their forecasts. Saying 29-30F with 850mb temps. this low and such great radiational cooling is ridiculous. We hit 27-28F at Hooks earlier this winter with 850mb temps. only near -2C...so if we saw -6C to -15C 850mb temps...you can just imagine how cold it can be.

[ETXHAMXYL]

Our local Mets here in the DFW area are ranging from lower 50's to 40's and low and upper 20's on Sat. but very quick warm up on Sunday back in the upper 50's and looks like 60's and upper by midweek.

This cold spell will be a snap and not that cold for just one day and one night. Accuweather home page and other posters on here have stated another big artic blast by next week...is this true?

To me at time being, this looks mild compared to early Dec. and very short lived. According to the local mets...no big deal.

Have a feeling that many people will be in the doctor offices next week if this cold and quick warm up happens. Winter rollercoaster rides make people sick.

[Johnny]

But will we have ideal radiational cooling conditions? Y'all are talking like this is what WILL happen, not if.

[gboudx]

Is it me or is this forecast for cold this weekend boring? Big deal if it gets cold. If it had some precip, then that would be news. Otherwise, it's just cold air. What excites you guys about this?

[Johnny]

gboudx, you are right. I wouldn't call it boring but it would have a complete different feel to it if wintry weather was in the mix, that's for sure. I'm welcoming a hard freeze to put a dent in the bug population which I hope we get.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Our local Mets here in the DFW area are ranging from lower 50's to 40's and low and upper 20's on Sat. but very quick warm up on Sunday back in the upper 50's and looks like 60's and upper by midweek.

This cold spell will be a snap and not that cold for just one day and one night. Accuweather home page and other posters on here have stated another big artic blast by next week...is this true?

To me at time being, this looks mild compared to early Dec. and very short lived. According to the local mets...no big deal.

Have a feeling that many people will be in the doctor offices next week if this cold and quick warm up happens. Winter rollercoaster rides make people sick.

Though it may be short...these 850mb temps. and thicknesses will be MUCH lower than the early December cold snap. For many places...similar or colder lows could occur with this system as did occur with that system. If we do get good radiational cooling...then your area will be in the teens for sure. Your NWS and the Houston NWS have based their forecasts off of the MOS guidance at 12Z...since then...the models have become MUCH colder, thus, if this trend continues, it should be a MUCH colder forecast tomorrow (If the NWS starts to get smart). I would expect You and I's temperature forecasts to go down by a good 10 degrees over the next few days. If you take the temps. forecasted by the NWS today and subtract 10 degrees; THAT is a good bet on how cold it will get during this systems visit. The potential is certainly there for record lows. Now of course things can change...but this is my idea for now. As for next week...another cold blast is definitely possible.

[Burn1]

Temps for Houston may barely make the freezing mark if lucky.....However if Extreme and Tyler keep wishing hard enough who knows?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Temps for Houston may barely make the freezing mark if lucky.....However if Extreme and Tyler keep wishing hard enough who knows?

Oh believe me...I will be wishing. (hoping for a little bit of surprise snow too) The good thing is that currently...the models are on my side with the cold...so my ideas are really not that crazy for how cold it might get.

[Burn1]

Just having a little fun.....I do enjoy and respect yours and Tyler's posts.....

Great activity!

[Extremeweatherguy]

But will we have ideal radiational cooling conditions? Y'all are talking like this is what WILL happen, not if.

Well if the NWS is not lying in their AFD, then yes, we will:

...THIS AIR MASS WILL BE
DRY ENOUGH TO CLEAR SKIES OUT AND LOWER WINDS TO NEAR CALM. THROW IN
THE NICE SHOT OF CAA ALOFT (850 TEMPS IN THE -5 TO -8 C RANGE WITH
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES IN THE 530 DAMS IN THE NE ZONES)...

Also...as of latest model runs...it looks like the 850mb temps. may be more like -7C to -12C...instead of -5C to -8C. With perfect radiational cooling...Houston will hit the lower to middle 20s for sure.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Above is the latest 0Z NAM run at 66 hrs. Those 850mb temps. are to -9C in parts of north Houston at that time...and this is not even at the heart of it. The whole run is not in yet...so this is just the beginning of the air spilling in. The peak of the cold would be a few hours later...during prime night time cooling.

[jasons2k]

One thing to remember is that the air temp cannot fall below the dew point. That's what will ultimately keep us from going below the 30F range IMO. Also, with the brunt of the cold air to the east, that's why College Station won't be as cold as usual.[/img]

[Tyler]

Temps for Houston may barely make the freezing mark if lucky.....However if Extreme and Tyler keep wishing hard enough who knows?

What? I'm not wishing at all. I am sorry for making my own forecast. I won't do it again, it your going to call it 'wishing'. I don't wish anything. When you see -7 to -9C 850 temps around the area, clear skies, and calm winds, your going to see more than the freezing mark.

[Tyler]

One thing to remember is that the air temp cannot fall below the dew point. That's what will ultimately keep us from going below the 30F range IMO. Also, with the brunt of the cold air to the east, that's why College Station won't be as cold as usual.[/img]

Dew points won't be a problem...