Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[boca]

That is very impressive, I've heard of a 10 degree drop but 20 is pretty rare I think. I know everyone in the Houston area will be checking their backyard thermometers every hour to see if you get to those low 20"s.

[Kelarie]

from San Angelo NWS this morn....

LONG TERM...
ALL INDICATION ARE THAT SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WE HAVE SEEN AROUND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SINCE THE MIDDLE OF DECEMBER. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. CLEAR SKIES...VERY DRY AIR MASS...AND DECREASING WINDS WILL MAKE FOR AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP FOR SUNDAY MORNING...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE USUAL LOW LYING SPOTS DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

NOT ENTIRELY SURE WHAT TO DO WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AS MODEL CONSISTENCY AS BEEN RELATIVELY POOR. WILL STICK WITH SOMETHING CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.

[jasons2k]

That is very impressive, I've heard of a 10 degree drop but 20 is pretty rare I think. I know everyone in the Houston area will be checking their backyard thermometers every hour to see if you get to those low 20"s.

Tyler and EWG may hit me over the head, I just don't see low 20's in Houston. I also don't see teens for Conroe either. I prob. won't get to post again until Sunday, by then we'll know for sure what happens I'm sticking with the numbers I posted a few days ago:

I think IAH will be 29 Sun AM. 32 at Hobby and 36 at Galveston.

[Furious George]

That is very impressive, I've heard of a 10 degree drop but 20 is pretty rare I think. I know everyone in the Houston area will be checking their backyard thermometers every hour to see if you get to those low 20"s.

Tyler and EWG may hit me over the head, I just don't see low 20's in Houston. I also don't see teens for Conroe either. I prob. won't get to post again until Sunday, by then we'll know for sure what happens I'm sticking with the numbers I posted a few days ago:

I think IAH will be 29 Sun AM. 32 at Hobby and 36 at Galveston.

I agree w/ the temps. With models trending slightly warmer, low 20's at this point would be difficult to reach.

Also, with this happening on the weekend, most people don't get out of their house until late morning - so many probably won't realize how cold it got. Still a good idea to protect plants and pets though.

I'm ready for the next system. Let's bring some precip with the cold weather next time.

[ROCK]

That is very impressive, I've heard of a 10 degree drop but 20 is pretty rare I think. I know everyone in the Houston area will be checking their backyard thermometers every hour to see if you get to those low 20"s.

Tyler and EWG may hit me over the head, I just don't see low 20's in Houston. I also don't see teens for Conroe either. I prob. won't get to post again until Sunday, by then we'll know for sure what happens I'm sticking with the numbers I posted a few days ago:

I think IAH will be 29 Sun AM. 32 at Hobby and 36 at Galveston.

though I don't chime in that much in the winter forums (sort of a tropics junky) I think you might be right. Alot of forecasts I've seen seem to mimic those temps.


Please don't hit me Tyler or EWG....

[Brent]

That is very impressive, I've heard of a 10 degree drop but 20 is pretty rare I think. I know everyone in the Houston area will be checking their backyard thermometers every hour to see if you get to those low 20"s.

Tyler and EWG may hit me over the head, I just don't see low 20's in Houston. I also don't see teens for Conroe either. I prob. won't get to post again until Sunday, by then we'll know for sure what happens I'm sticking with the numbers I posted a few days ago:

I think IAH will be 29 Sun AM. 32 at Hobby and 36 at Galveston.

Agreed.

and with this coming on the weekend, most people won't even be out in it, so it's not that big of a deal.

[gboudx]

For me, the most exciting part of this is the 50% chance of rain I have tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise, it's just cold air. I hope aggiecutter's forecast of some wintry precip in the long-range pans out.

[MiamiensisWx]

After this weekend the flow goes back to zonal which means warmer temps at least in Florida, we have are 2 day winter this weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM
AGAIN AS PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. GFSLR IS SHOWING DECENT RETURN
MOISTURE BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY THEN.

That's the Miami NWS dicussion.

The Miami NWS often downplays incoming cold temperatures and clearer conditions. It is entirely sunny in my area both today and yesterday, yet the forecast was calling for partly cloudy to mostly sunny conditions, not entirely sunny conditions! Look what happened! Also, with the pattern like it is now and with more fronts expected to arrive here soon, I just don't see that scenario playing out. Who agrees? There is ample support for reinforcing cold to very cool air into southern Florida.

Tyler, do you think I am right?

[plainsman]

Is it me or is this forecast for cold this weekend boring? Big deal if it gets cold. If it had some precip, then that would be news. Otherwise, it's just cold air. What excites you guys about this?

gboudx... houston has a different warmer climate then Dallas and north texas.... 95 percent of the posts on here are south texans mainly people from houston... north texans could care less about a front with lows in the 20s and highs in the upper 30s and 40s if theres no wintry precip to go along with it.. its not even talked about in Dallas.. this front this weekend wil not even be talked about in Dallas really.. if anything its dropping the temperatures to normal or slightly below normal.. who cares ya know??? when is the next winter event coming is what gets north, west and panhandle of Texans talking, not just a average cold front with no wintry precip with it like this one coming up

[gboudx]

plainsman, the TV mets are talking it up. But mostly because it's been so warm most of the winter.

[gboudx]

Ok, just checked my area forecast from the DFW NWS. You guys notice anything interesting about this?

Tonight: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Increasing clouds, with a low around 47. South wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Friday: Periods of rain showers, mixing with snow after 3pm. Some thunder is also possible. High near 50. Windy, with a north northwest wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to between 20 and 25 mph. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.


I'm thinking this just got interesting for me.

[aggiecutter]

The noon Ensembles bring down another strong high(next weekend-early the following week). With a SW-NE temperature gradient, the possibilty for a southern plains winter storm exist.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 20912.html

[southerngale]

But will we have ideal radiational cooling conditions? Y'all are talking like this is

what WILL happen, not if.

Well if the NWS is not lying in their AFD, then yes, we will:

...THIS AIR MASS WILL BE
DRY ENOUGH TO CLEAR SKIES OUT AND LOWER WINDS TO NEAR CALM. THROW IN
THE NICE SHOT OF CAA ALOFT (850 TEMPS IN THE -5 TO -8 C RANGE WITH
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES IN THE 530 DAMS IN THE NE ZONES)...

Also...as of latest model runs...it looks like the 850mb temps. may be more like -7C to -12C...instead of -5C to -8C. With perfect

radiational cooling...Houston will hit the lower to middle 20s for sure.

Well, that stinks. With no chance of snow, it's not all that exciting. I guess I'll enjoy my fireplace again though.

[southerngale]

Ok, just checked my area forecast from the DFW NWS. You guys notice anything interesting about this?

Tonight: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Increasing clouds, with a low around 47. South wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Friday: Periods of rain showers, mixing with snow after 3pm. Some thunder is also possible. High near 50. Windy, with a north northwest wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to between 20 and 25 mph. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.


I'm thinking this just got interesting for me.

What's for dinner tomorrow night, gboudx?

[Portastorm]

Nothing like a little thundersnow, eh?!

And in Texas to boot ... that would be a cool thing. Here's hoping some of us here at least get to see a few flakes falling with this very cold airmass soon to chill us down.

[Cookiely]

I NEVER KNEW YOU HAD TO BE CAREFUL PUMPING GAS BECAUSE OF THE WEATHER?
Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
527 AM CST THU FEB 9 2006

ALZ011>015-017>050-092100-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
527 AM CST THU FEB 9 2006

...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED
BY AN ARCTIC BLAST...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. AS
THE COLD AIR BEGINS WORKING ITS WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RAIN TO BEGIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY MORNING....
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 59 CORRIDOR. THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXIST WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM. THE SLIGHTEST SHIFT IN THE MOISTURE FIELD OR IN THE POSITION
OF THE COLD AIR...WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE PRECIPITATION
TYPES AND AMOUNTS. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN ENTRENCH ITSELF ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BY MID
DAY ON SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 18 AND 28 DEGREES EACH MORNING AREAWIDE...WITH
A FEW NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40
DEGREES NORTH AND ONLY ACHIEVE THE MID 40S SOUTH...BEFORE HIGHS
MODERATE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

EXTREME COLD CAN BE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FOR THE VERY YOUNG AND
THE ELDERLY. BE SURE THAT YOUR FAMILY AND FRIENDS HAVE ADEQUATE
HEATING IN THEIR HOMES OR HAVE A WARM PLACE TO GO. PROVIDE ANY
OUTDOOR PETS WITH ADEQUATE SHELTER AND BE SURE THEY HAVE PLENTY OF
FRESH UNFROZEN WATER. PROPER PRECAUTIONS SHOULD ALSO BE TAKEN TO
PROTECT ANY TENDER VEGETATION. FINALLY IF YOUR HOME IS NOT WELL
INSULATED...THERE ARE A FEW STEPS YOU CAN TAKE TO PROTECT YOUR
PLUMBING. DRIP FAUCETS ON EXTERIOR WALLS...MAKE SURE ANY EXPOSED
PIPES ARE WRAPPED IN INSULATION...AND COVER ANY OUTDOOR FAUCETS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY WHICH MAY LEAD TO
STATIC DISCHARGES. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN MOVING AROUND NEAR
SENSITIVE ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT AND WHEN PUMPING GASOLINE.



$$

LINHARES/SIRMON

[Brent]

I NEVER KNEW YOU HAD TO BE CAREFUL PUMPING GAS BECAUSE OF THE WEATHER?

Static electricity.

[Ivanhater]

possible snow for Mobile?

[Extremeweatherguy]

That is very impressive, I've heard of a 10 degree drop but 20 is pretty rare I think. I know everyone in the Houston area will be checking their backyard thermometers every hour to see if you get to those low 20"s.

Tyler and EWG may hit me over the head, I just don't see low 20's in Houston. I also don't see teens for Conroe either. I prob. won't get to post again until Sunday, by then we'll know for sure what happens I'm sticking with the numbers I posted a few days ago:

I think IAH will be 29 Sun AM. 32 at Hobby and 36 at Galveston.

I agree w/ the temps. With models trending slightly warmer, low 20's at this point would be difficult to reach.

Also, with this happening on the weekend, most people don't get out of their house until late morning - so many probably won't realize how cold it got. Still a good idea to protect plants and pets though.

I'm ready for the next system. Let's bring some precip with the cold weather next time.

models trending warmer? Looks to me like the GFS is as cold as ever (-7C to -9C 850mb temps.) and all the other models also look cold...and I am referring to the LATEST 12Z and 18Z runs too. I think, if anything, lower 20s look more likely than ever. My latest idea is as follows...and this is for IAH...

PERFECT radiational cooling = 20-24 degrees
GOOD radiational cooling = 22-26 degrees
Some inhibitors to cooling (clouds, wind) = 25-29 degrees
Major inhibitors to cooling (thick clouds, high winds, precip.) = 27-32 degrees

And I think you should take an additional 1-2 degrees off those readings for Hooks and 3-4 degrees off those above readings for Conroe. The question at this point is...do we get good radiational cooling or not?

[Tyler]

12z MOS guidance trended cooler. Why are you guys saying they trended warmer?