Fire Weather Discussions

[TexasStooge]

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   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 AM CST MON JAN 30 2006
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SERN
   STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE HIGH
   PRESSURE WILL BUILD SEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW RH READINGS /15-25
   PERCENT/ WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE HIGH OVER MUCH OF OK/TX. GUSTY
   WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER ERN/SRN PORTIONS OF OK/TX EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD...WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST. WEAKENING WINDS
   ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON PRECLUDING A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT. FURTHER WEST...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST
   COAST. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BROAD/WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BE
   PREDOMINANT OVER THE INTRMTN WEST....WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
   ABOUT 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT ANY
   FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
   
   ...SRN/ERN OK...ERN/SRN TX...
   BEHIND THE UPPER SYSTEM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD
   THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. INITIALLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COUPLED WITH
   A DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND MODERATE WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
   SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/ERN OK INTO
   ERN/SRN TX FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A DRY AIRMASS
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA...WITH DEWPTS IN THE SINGLE
   DIGITS AND TEENS EARLY THIS MORNING IN WRN OK...IS BEST HANDLED BY
   THE GFS MODEL. AFTERNOON DEWPTS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
   SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS OVER MUCH OF SRN/ERN OK...WITH 20S-LOWER 30S
   EXPECTED IN MOST OF ERN/SRN TX. CONSEQUENT MIN RH READINGS WILL FALL
   TO BETWEEN 15-25 PERCENT...LOWEST IN OK. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED
   WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BETWEEN 10-15 MPH DURING THE
   TIME OF LOWEST RH READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON...A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER OUTLOOK AREA DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/30/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 AM CST MON JAN 30 2006
   
   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON DAY TWO...AS ANOTHER UPPER
   LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE INTERMTN REGION INTO THE SRN
   PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL
   INTENSIFY OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE RESULTANT INCREASING
   PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MOD-STRONG SSWLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF
   THE SRN PLAINS. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
   THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. THUS LOW RH READINGS WILL COMBINE WITH
   THE WINDS TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF
   SRN PLAINS. FURTHER EAST...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
   SERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE DAY ONE COLD FRONT....NWLY WINDS WILL
   DIMINISH DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 10-15 MPH
   WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SC/GA/FL. LOW RH READINGS WILL
   LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER OVER THIS AREA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MUCH OF WRN/NRN TX...OK AND ERN
   NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SSWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH...MIN RH
   READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...THE SURFACE LEE
   TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. EAST OF THE LEE
   TROUGH...OVER PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN AND CENTRAL TX AND MOST OF
   OK...SUSTAINED SSWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WILL BE DEVELOP BY LATE
   MORNING. WINDS WEST OF THE LEE TROUGH OVER SERN NM/SWRN TX WILL
   LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT LESS /EXCEPT IN HIGHER TERRAIN/...GENERALLY
   AVERAGING AROUND 20 MPH. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARDS
   EARLIER ANTICIPATED BELIEF THAT DEWPTS WILL NOT RISE APPRECIABLY
   DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL BE
   EMANATING FROM NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
   SRN MS VALLEY...WHERE DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
   PARTIAL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW....MEAGER MOISTURE
   AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL MIXING
   POTENTIAL. THUS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
   FROM THE MID 60S IN NRN OK TO THE UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL TX...OR
   AROUND 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. WITH DEWPTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
   TEENS IN WRN TX/SERN NM...TO THE 20S IN MOST OF OK AND THE 30S IN
   NRN/CENTRAL TX...MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.
   THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS WITH THESE LOW RH READINGS WILL
   SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO
   THE EVENING HOURS...BUT A COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE/DIURNAL
   COOLING WILL LEAD TO AN END OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ...SRN GA/SC/MOST OF FL...
   WITH THE APPROACH OF A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE...MUCH DRIER
   AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. NWLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...TO SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 MPH. THUS DESPITE MIN RH READINGS
   AROUND 25 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
   EXPECTED.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/30/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

[TexasStooge]

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   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0205 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2006
   
   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS AS
   ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD FROM THE SWRN STATES INTO
   THE SRN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER
   SYSTEM...THE LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
   RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT MODERATE
   WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS REGION. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL
   ALSO EXIST OVER THE SAME REGION...LEADING TO A LARGE AREA OF
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
   NATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EWD TOWARDS THE
   SERN STATES BEHIND ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
   ACCOMPANY THIS SURFACE HIGH INTO THE SERN STATES THROUGH THE
   PERIOD...WHERE RH READINGS WILL BE CRITICALLY LOW. WEAK UPPER
   RIDGING WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SWRN
   STATES...LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH READINGS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN NM...MOST OF WRN/CENTRAL/NRN
   TX...MOST OF OK...SERN KS/SWRN MO/NWRN AR...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH...MIN RH
   READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   THE LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER
   TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SWRN STATES. THUS...AS THE CENTER OF
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EWD INTO THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INTENSIFY OVER MUCH OF THE SRN
   PLAINS REGION. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT A LARGE AREA...EXTENDING FROM
   SERN NM/SWRN TX NEWD INTO SERN KS/SWRN MO...WILL SEE SUSTAINED SWLY
   WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
   /ESPECIALLY OVER WRN OK/. IN ADDITION...EARLY MORNING SURFACE
   ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED IN THE SRN
   PLAINS...WITH DEWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN WRN OK/NWRN TX....TO
   THE MID 20S IN NRN/CENTRAL TX AND SRN OK. WITH THE AREA OF HIGH
   PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EWD...MOISTURE RETURN /EVEN IN AN ELEVATED
   SENSE/ WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...AS STRONG
   VERTICAL MIXING OFFSETS ADVECTION. GIVEN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
   RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN CENTRAL/SWRN TX/SERN NM...TO THE MID 60S
   IN SERN KS/SWRN MO...MIN RH READINGS WILL RANGE FROM 15-25 PERCENT.
   THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW RH READINGS AND MODERATE WINDS WILL LEAD
   TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   ARE ANTICIPATED TO END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS DIURNAL COOLING AND
   MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASE.
   
   ...NERN NM...TX/OK PANHANDLES...
   CLOSER TO THE LEE CYCLONE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER.
   THUS SUSTAINED SWLY-NWLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 15-20 MPH WITH
   HIGHER GUSTS. IN ADDITION TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...HIGH CLOUD
   COVER WILL THICKEN OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF
   BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL TEND TO INHIBIT DEEPER MIXING. THUS MIN
   RH READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 PERCENT...PRECLUDING A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   NWLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
   FRONT/UPPER TROUGH. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS
   THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES...WITH DEWPTS IN THE 20S/30S.
   TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD...WITH READINGS IN THE 50S
   AND 60S. THUS MIN RH READINGS WILL AVERAGE FROM 25-35 PERCENT.
   ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICALLY LOW VALUES...THE LACK OF STRONGER
   WINDS WILL PRECLUDE AN OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/31/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2006
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SERN STATES.
   BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE FROM
   THE PAC NW INTO THE ROCKIES/PLAINS. BEHIND THE INITIAL SYSTEM AND
   IT/S ASSOCIATED DRYLINE...WLY DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP
   OVER PARTS OF SRN TX LEADING TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. OVER WRN
   TX/ERN NM...SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS
   BEHIND THE LEE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM. BOTH AREAS
   WILL HAVE VERY DRY AIR WITH MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT.
   UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WINDS IN BOTH AREAS
   WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL OUTLOOK. ELSEWHERE...ABOVE NORMAL
   TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUES OVER THE SWRN STATES AND SRN GREAT BASIN
   UNDER THE PRESENCE OF WEAK UPPER RIDGING.
   
   ...FAR WRN TX/SRN AND ERN NM....
   TO THE WEST OF A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH...INCREASING FLOW IN THE MID
   LEVELS ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
   MODERATE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ATTM...SUSTAINED WINDS
   ARE ANTICIPATED TO AVERAGE FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
   LOW DEWPTS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO MIN RH READINGS AROUND
   15 PERCENT. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR STRONGER WINDS AND A CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...SRN TX...
   BEHIND THE UPPER SYSTEM...A DRYLINE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN TX
   EARLY IN THE PERIOD. GENERALLY WEAKENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
   AND WIND FIELDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LIMIT SUSTAINED WINDS TO LESS
   THAN 20 MPH. HOWEVER MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-20 PERCENT APPEAR
   LIKELY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S AND DEWPTS FALL INTO THE
   20S/30S.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/31/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

[TexasStooge]

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FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2006

...VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER TODAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM TODAY FOR ALL OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNED
AREA...INCLUDING BRYAN AND ATOKA COUNTIES...FIRE DANGER WILL ALSO BE
VERY HIGH. HUMIDITY WAS ALREADY VERY LOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND
VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE
MORNING AND SPREAD QUICKLY INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS BY MIDDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
WILL BE COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON. FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WILL SEE WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH BECOMING GUSTY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S IN THE WEST AND
UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. AFTER SUNSET CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ONLY
SLOWLY...AS MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST.

PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION TO PREVENT THE START OR SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DESTRUCTION OF
GRASSLANDS...LIVESTOCK...FORESTS...AND PROPERTY.

A BURN BAN...ISSUED BY THE STATE OF OKLAHOMA...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE STATE. A BURN BAN ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...INCLUDING THE COUNTIES OF HARDEMAN... FOARD...
KNOX... BAYLOR... ARCHER... CLAY...WILBARGER...AND WICHITA.

[TexasStooge]

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FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
344 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-069-072-074>076-010245-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-ADAIR-SEQUOYAH-HASKELL-LATIMER-LE FLORE-
344 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2006

...FIRE WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER ALERT
WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN ARKANSAS...
BENTON...CARROLL...WASHINGTON...MADISON...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN AND
SEBASTIAN.

IN OKLAHOMA...
PUSHMATAHA...CHOCTAW...ADAIR...SEQUOYAH...HASKELL...LATIMER AND
LE FLORE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS...COUPLED WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT
WILL CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY UP IN MANY PARTS OF THE AREA...ALLOWING WILDFIRES
TO IGNITE MORE EASILY. DISPOSE OF CIGARETTES PROPERLY AND AVOID ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD START FIRES. ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP COULD QUICKLY SPREAD
AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL.

A FIRE WEATHER ALERT IS ISSUED WHEN DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BUT ARE BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. A FIRE WEATHER ALERT
MAY ALSO BE ISSUED TO RELAY STATE OR COUNTY FIRE INFORMATION...SUCH
AS BURNING BANS.

ADDITIONAL FIRE INFORMATION...INCLUDING CURRENT COUNTY BURN
BANS...CAN BE ACCESSED FROM THE OKLAHOMA DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
AT: WWW.OK.GOV/~OKAG/ AND FROM THE ARKANSAS FORESTRY COMMISSION
AT: WWW.FORESTRY.STATE.AR.US.

[TexasStooge]

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GRASS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
843 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2006

...CRITICAL GRASS FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF A
SHERMAN-DENISON...DALLAS...HILLSBORO...WACO...TEMPLE LINE...DUE TO
INCREASING AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE DEEPENING
...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES BY THIS
EVENING...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST OVER
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EXPECTED
MIXING BY MIDDAY WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. COMBINED WITH DORMANT
...DRY FUELS ACROSS THE AREA AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WELL BELOW 30
PERCENT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS. SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER THE RED FLAG AREA THIS EVENING
...HOWEVER HUMIDITIES RISE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE AIRMASS COOLS.

ALL PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PREVENT FIRES FROM STARTING. OUTDOOR
BURN BANS REMAIN IN EFFECT AREAWIDE. AVOID ANY ACTIVITIES THAT COULD
START A DEADLY FIRE...SUCH AS OUTDOOR WELDING OR TOSSING LIT CIGARETTES.
NEARLY ALL WILDFIRES ARE INTENTIONALLY OR CARELESSLY SET.

IF YOU OBSERVE A WILDFIRE OR ONE DEVELOPS...REPORT IT QUICKLY TO THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE OR FIRE DEPARTMENT.

[TexasStooge]

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   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0152 AM CST WED FEB 01 2006
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NEARING THE BIG BEND AREA THIS MORNING WILL
   MOVE INTO SCNTRL TX BY THIS EVENING. SFC COLD FRONT EARLY THIS
   MORNING EXTENDS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SE NM. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
   MOVE SWD ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS REGION/SW TX TODAY...WHILE A DRYLINE
   MIXES EWD ACROSS SCNTRL TX. ALTHOUGH SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
   ACROSS CNTRL TX TODAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE OVERLY
   STRONG. MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF WILL ALSO KEEP THE
   AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE/SFC DRYLINE RATHER MOIST WITH RH
   VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
   
   ...SW/SCNTRL TX...
   LONG TERM DROUGHT CONTINUES TO AFFECT THIS REGION...WITH RECENT
   NFDRS FIRE DANGER CLASS VALUES RANGING FROM HIGH TO EXTREME. HIGH
   TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL /MID 60S WEST TO 80S S TX/
   AGAIN...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S EARLY IN THE DAY WILL YIELD RH
   VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AT LEAST ACROSS SCTNRL TX. AS
   WINDS BECOME W/NWLY IN THE AFTN...RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 30
   PERCENT. ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
   PROMOTE DEEP MIXING AND RH VALUES WILL FALL AS LOW AS 10-15 PERCENT.
   SFC WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONGEST IN THE DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT
   WEST OF THE DRYLINE.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CAPPING
   INVERSION WEAKENS ENOUGH TO ALLOW HIGHER WINDS TO MIX TO THE SFC.
   MODERATE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE
   AFTN...WHICH WILL INCREASE THREAT OF WIND DRIVEN FIRE.
   HOWEVER...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD LIMIT SUSTAINED WINDS
   TO LESS THAN 20 MPH.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 02/01/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0153 AM CST WED FEB 01 2006
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS ALBERTA/SASK ALLOWING FLOW ALOFT
   TO BECOME MORE NWLY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND SOUTHWEST.
   WINDS ALOFT ACROSS ERN NM WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 60 KT BY
   03/00Z. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER MIDWEST WAVE
   WILL SUPPORT LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTN ON THU.
   
   ...ERN NM...
   MODERATE TO STRONG SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY AFTN ACROSS THE ECNTRL
   PLAINS...WITH GUSTS OVER 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE IN DEEPLY MIXED
   ENVIRONMENT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
   FALLING BELOW 20 PERCENT. GIVEN PERSISTENT LONG TERM DROUGHT
   CONDITIONS...AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADE IN NEXT
   OUTLOOK.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 02/01/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

[TexasStooge]

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   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SCNTRL TX/LOWER RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VIGOROUS JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH
   NOW CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS IT DOES...MID LEVEL WIND
   SPEEDS ACROSS TX WILL INCREASE TO 80-90 KT. SFC COLD FRONT...NOW
   ACROSS NCNTRL TX/CNTRL NM...WILL ACCELERATE QUICKLY SWD ACROSS TX
   INTO THE GULF BY THIS EVENING. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS
   WARM AND DRY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN
   TODAY. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL DEVELOP
   WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
   MUCH OF SCNTRL TX/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SCNTRL TX/LOWER RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS/MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/LONG
   TERM DROUGHT
   
   TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY CLIMBED INTO THE 90S AND SEVERAL RECORD
   HIGHS WERE RECORDED. WHILE TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
   TODAY...THEY WILL STILL AVERAGE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
   70S/80S...WITH LOWER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY. MINIMUM RH VALUES WERE 10-15 PERCENT ON THU AND WILL FALL
   BELOW 20 PERCENT TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY FROM W TO N AS THE
   FRONT MOVES ACROSS SCNTRL TX BY MID/LATE MORNING...WHILE WINDS
   ACROSS EXTREME SRN TX WILL SHIFT BY EARLY/MID AFTN. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
   ARE LIKELY WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   WILL BE SLIGHTLY WORSE TODAY THAN ON THU DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 02/03/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT.

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   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY
   SATURDAY...AND THE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
   BY 05/00Z. MEANWHILE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE NRN
   ROCKIES. THE STORM SYSTEM NOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
   START TO AFFECT THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY. AT THE
   SFC...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWIFTLY ACROSS THE SERN STATES
   WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS ON SAT AFTN. MEANWHILE...IN THE
   PLAINS...LEE SIDE TROUGH SETS UP WHICH WILL INDUCE SLY FLOW ACROSS
   ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTN.
   
   ...ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE...
   AFTER A BRIEF SURGE OF COOLER AIR ON FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL WARM UP ON
   SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE VERY
   DRY...AND MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10-15 PERCENT.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE BY
   MID/LATE AFTN...SUSTAINED VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE
   10-20 MPH RANGE. ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 02/03/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

[TexasStooge]

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   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0321 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAINS BETWEEN MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY
   AND AS A RESULT, A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE
   GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH THE AIRMASS
   IS VERY DRY.  THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. IS UNDER A DEEP UPPER
   LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW
   ENGLAND.  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY AID IN
   STRENGTHING THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN, RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS
   FOR SUNDAY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
   
   ..BOTHWELL.. 02/04/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0401 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NEW MEXICO..NORTHWEST
   TEXAS..SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CALIFORNIA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SURFACE LOW OVER SERN COLORADO WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   OKLAHOMA AND INTO SERN ARKANSAS DURING THE PERIOD RESULTING IN THE
   STRONGEST WINDS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
   SYSTEM ALSO TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM COLORADO TO ARKANSAS. STRONG
   NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES.
   
   A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTING UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN AND
   DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR THE
   BEGINNING OF A WEAK TO MODERATE SANTA ANA EVENT BY LATE IN THE
   PERIOD FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN NEW MEXICO..NORTHWEST
   TEXAS..SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG GUSTY WINDS..LOW HUMIDITY MILD CONDITIONS
   AND SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG..GUSTY AND DRY
   SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
   DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND THE AIRMASS WILL
   BE QUITE DRY..RESULTING IN VERY LOW HUMIDITY AROUND 10 TO 15
   PERCENT.  AT THIS TIME, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
   ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA HELPING TO MITIGATE THE FIRE CONDITIONS
   SLIGHTLY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
   CLIMBING INTO THE 70S WHICH COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW
   HUMIDITY  AND DRY FUELS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASED FIRE THREAT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - SRN CALIFORNIA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: INCREASING DRY OFFSHORE WINDS..LOW HUMIDITY AND
   HIGH FIRE DANGER
   
   DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY, THE SURFACE PRESSURE
   PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A WEAK TO
   MODERATE SANTA ANA OFFSHORE WIND EVENT BEGINNING.  HUMIDITY SHOULD
   DROP TO BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
   DEVELOPING ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
   
   ..BOTHWELL.. 02/04/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

[TexasStooge]

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   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0404 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2006
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CALIFORNIA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NEW MEXICO..NORTHWEST
   TEXAS..SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   PLAINS TODAY HELPING TO PUSH ANOTHER GENERALLY DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS
   OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.  A LARGE AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
   WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND DESERT
   SOUTHWEST SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT OVER SOUTHERN
   CALIFORNIA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CALIFORNIA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS..VERY LOW
   HUMIDITY..VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER
   
   STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN COMBINED WITH AN
   INVERTED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
   PRODUCE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN STRONG AND GUSTY
   NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM THE MOUNTAIN PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL
   AREAS. HUMIDITY READINGS WILL DROP TO BELOW 10 TO 15 PERCENT.
   TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD IN THE 70S TO 80S.  THE OFFSHORE WIND
   EVENT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
   HUMIDITY RECOVERY LIMITED TO IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE
   PERIOD.
   PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WILL
   EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT
   20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY, BUT
   SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA MAY WELL EXPERIENCE DANGEROUS FIRE
   CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
   AND HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - ERN NEW MEXICO..NORTHWEST
   TEXAS..SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG S/SW WINDS SHIFTING TO N/NWLY..LOW
   HUMIDITY..DRY AND DEAD FUELS
   
   A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
   TODAY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. A COLD FRONT
   BEHIND THE LOW WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE LOW.  THE COMBINATION
   OF THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INITIALLY STRONG
   AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO VERY STRONG AND
   GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.  HUMIDITY WILL
   BE QUITE LOW..BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
   TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE 60S AND 70S.  TEMPERATURES
   BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S WITH SOME SLOW INCREASE IN
   HUMIDITY BEHIND THE FRONT.  NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE
   AFTER SUNSET AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
   HOURS.
   
   ..BOTHWELL.. 02/05/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0427 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2006
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CALIFORNIA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
   WESTERN U.S. BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A STORM
   SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
   OVER  ABOUT THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE U.S. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
   COLD FRONT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CALIFORNIA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: ON-GOING SANTA ANA EVENT WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
   WINDS..VERY LOW HUMIDITY..VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER
   
   A STRONG OFFSHORE WIND EVENT..SANTA ANA..WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY
   VALUES WILL BE ON-GOING DURING EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  PRESENT
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT BY MID AFTERNOON..THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
   WEAKEN AND THE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
   THE VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
   UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNSET.
   THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME HUMIDITY RECOVERY TO OCCUR
   MONDAY NIGHT..ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREA.
   
   ...SOUTHERN TEXAS...
   
   STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AND MANY OF THE FUELS
   ARE DRY AND/OR DEAD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS..BUT GIVEN
   COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY GENERALLY STAYING ABOVE 30 TO 40
   PERCENT...AT THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE A CRITICAL AREA ALTHOUGH THE
   SITUATION WILL BE RE-EVALUATED TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE NEXT
   FORECAST.
   
   ..BOTHWELL.. 02/05/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

[TexasStooge]

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FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
637 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2006

...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN
ONE THIRD OF OKLAHOMA BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH...DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT.
THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO
25 PERCENT...RESULTING IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.

FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP...WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT. ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...SOUTH
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY NOON AT 10 TO 15
MPH...WITH HUMIDITIES FALLING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT BEFORE
THE FRONT PASSES.

PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION TO PREVENT THE START OR SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DESTRUCTION OF
GRASSLANDS...LIVESTOCK...FORESTS...AND PROPERTY.

A BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND ALL OF
OKLAHOMA.

[TexasStooge]

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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
100 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-052200-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
100 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2006

.NOW...

...RED FLAG WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 600 PM FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERMAN...WAXAHACHIE...CAMERON LINE...

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
BEING MAINTAINED IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. FURTHERMORE...AS OF 100
PM...SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAD DROPPED BELOW 30 PERCENT
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM NOCONA...TO JACKSBORO...
STEPHENVILLE...AND GOLDTHWAITE. SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY REACH THE
15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

A LARGE GRASS FIRE HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED SOUTH OF JACKSBORO...WITH
ADDITIONAL WILD FIRES LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE URGED TO OBEY ALL OUTDOOR
BURN BANS...AND REFRAIN FROM ACTIVITIES SUCH AS WELDING...GRILLING...
AND THROWING LIT CIGARETTES ON THE GROUND.

[TexasStooge]

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FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1259 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2006

OKZ049-053>056-059>061-064>067-070-071-073>075-060000-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-PAWNEE-TULSA-ROGERS-
CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-PITTSBURG-
HASKELL-LATIMER-
1259 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2006

...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER ALERT
WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN OKLAHOMA...
PUSHMATAHA...CHOCTAW...OSAGE...WASHINGTON...NOWATA...PAWNEE...
TULSA...ROGERS...CREEK...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...WAGONER...MUSKOGEE...
MCINTOSH...PITTSBURG...HASKELL AND LATIMER.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO
CONTINUE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE...WHICH WILL FURTHER AID IN AGGRESSIVE
FIRE BEHAVIOR.

DISPOSE OF CIGARETTES PROPERLY AND AVOID ACTIVITIES THAT COULD START
FIRES. ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP COULD QUICKLY SPREAD AND BE DIFFICULT TO
CONTROL.

A FIRE WEATHER ALERT IS ISSUED WHEN DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BUT ARE BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. A FIRE WEATHER ALERT MAY ALSO
BE ISSUED TO RELAY STATE OR COUNTY FIRE INFORMATION...SUCH AS BURNING BANS.

[TexasStooge]

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   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 AM CST MON FEB 06 2006
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NCNTRL/SCNTRL TX
   THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY ACROSS SRN CA CONTRIBUTING TO
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WHILE A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE
   THROUGH SRN TX BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO THAT AREA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
   RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK WAVE NOW
   MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. AIRMASS ACROSS SRN CA REMAINS
   DRY...WITH LITTLE HUMIDITY RECOVERY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS/VERY LOW RH VALUES/EXTREME
   FIRE DANGER
   
   HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S/80S...WHICH IS 15-20
   DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW RECORD HIGHS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS AND SREF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MINIMUM RH VALUES COULD
   DIP AS LOW AS 5-10 PERCENT...WITH RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS
   INLAND LOCATIONS. AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS
   WERE ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SOME LOCATIONS REPORTING WINDS OF 20-30
   MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 15-30 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS. RECENT FIRE DANGER CLASS OBSERVATIONS REMAIN HIGH TO
   EXTREME...AND SANTA ANA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
   EARLY WEDNESDAY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - PORTIONS OF NCNTRL/SCNTRL TX
   THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH/MINIMUM RH VALUES
   BELOW 20 PERCENT/
   
   COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL TX EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL
   MOVE PAST BROWNSVILLE BY LATE MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE
   W/SW TO N BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE 30-40 KT JUST A
   FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SFC...AND ONCE DIURNAL MIXING BEGINS
   THIS MORNING...SFC WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
   15-30 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SFC
   DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND IN THE UPPER
   50S IN THE WARM SECTOR. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
   FRONT...AND RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT. WINDY AND
   DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NCNTRL TX...BUT
   TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER /MID 50S TO LOWER 60S/...THUS MITIGATING
   THE FIRE THREAT SOMEWHAT.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 02/06/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 AM CST MON FEB 06 2006
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SANTA ANA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN CA ON TUESDAY...AS UPPER
   LOW NOW OFF CA COAST GRADUALLY MOVES SEWD TOWARD BAJA.
   MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EWD ON TUE...WITH
   ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. LEE
   TROUGH WILL FORM IN THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH SWLY FLOW REDEVELOPING
   OVER NW/W TX.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS/MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW 15
   PERCENT/EXTREME FIRE DANGER
   
   OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG ON TUESDAY OWING TO TIGHT
   PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND TROUGH OFF
   THE W COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
   LIKELY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 70S/80S WILL CONTINUE...WITH
   MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 5-10 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS INLAND
   LOCATIONS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 02/06/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

[TexasStooge]

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   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0339 AM CST TUE FEB 07 2006
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE MAJORITY OF THE NATION WILL BE DRY TODAY AS LONG WAVE UPPER
   TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE
   WEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN W AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OUT WEST...A WEAK
   UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS LOW...
   ALONG WITH A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A VERY WARM AND
   DRY AIR MASS WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN CA.
   
   ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE SERN STATES BEHIND THE COLD
   FRONT WITH COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS...WHILE WEAK LEE TROUGHING CAUSES
   SWLY WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS WRN TX WHERE DROUGHT PERSISTS.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SANTA ANA WINDS / EXTREMELY LOW RH / HIGH HAINES
   INDEX
   
   SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF
   30-40 MPH LIKELY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR
   MASS IS IN PLACE AND WILL CAUSE EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND MINIMUM RH VALUES AS
   LOW AS 4 OR 5 PERCENT. AS A RESULT OF THE VERY WARM AND DRY
   WEATHER...THE HAINES INDEX WILL BE IN THE HIGH CATEGORY. RH RECOVERY
   WILL BE POOR OVERNIGHT AS STRONG ELY AND NELY WINDS PERSIST.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   IT WILL BE COOL AND DRY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL LIE ACROSS
   CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S
   ACROSS SC/GA/AL TO THE 60S INTO CENTRAL FL. THE LOWEST RH VALUES
   WILL BE OVER MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE FROM 25-30 PERCENT. IN ADDITION TO
   LOW RH...NWLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE NEAR 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
   DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH KBDI VALUES ARE LOW ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE AREA...COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND MARGINAL WINDS MAY CAUSE AN
   INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
   
   ...WRN TX...
   SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK BUT FAST MOVING UPPER
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES S ACROSS CO AND INTO NM AND W TX. WINDS
   WILL VEER TO SWLY DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 MPH. RH VALUES
   WILL DROP INTO THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE WITH TEMPERATURES OF 60-65.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 02/07/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0432 AM CST TUE FEB 07 2006
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT OVER THE NRN ROCKIES BUT WILL REMAIN
   IN TACT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AS WILL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
   MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SRN CA AND AZ
   HELPING TO STRENGTHEN ELY FLOW ACROSS SRN CA.  FARTHER E...HIGH
   PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES...WITH ANOTHER AREA
   ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SERN STATES.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SANTA ANA WINDS / EXTREMELY LOW RH / VERY WARM
   TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HAINES INDEX
   
   SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WED
   MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THU MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS 15-25
   MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 BELOW FAVORED PASSES AND
   CANYONS. RH WILL BE EXTREMELY LOW FROM 5-10 PERCENT WITH VERY WARM
   TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
   VERY STEEP WITH HIGH HAINES INDEX. RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR
   OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WINDS AND MIXING.
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY / DEEP SOUTH...
   WLY FLOW OF 10-15 MPH WILL BE PRESENT AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGH
   PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W. RH WILL AVERAGE 25-35 PERCENT
   ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.
   MARGINAL FIRE THREAT WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON / PEAK HEATING
   HOURS BEFORE RH RECOVERS QUICKLY IN THE EVENING.
   
   ...OK / N TX...
   A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OK DURING THE DAY ON WED AND WILL BE
   INTO N TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. NLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE LIKELY ALONG
   WITH MIN RH READINGS OF 20-25 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO 50S
   OK TO THE 60S IN TX. ALTHOUGH RH LEVELS ARE MARGINAL...FIRE THREAT
   WILL BE ENHANCED IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED LITTLE RAIN RECENTLY.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 02/07/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

[TexasStooge]

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   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 AM CST WED FEB 08 2006
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN STATES WITH LARGE
   AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE
   OVER SRN CA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE GREAT BASIN HIGH AND AN
   UPPER LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SRN CA AND AZ.
   FARTHER E...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
   AND WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SRN MS VALLEY BY THU MORNING...AND WLY
   WINDS WILL BRING DRY AIR INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SANTA ANA WINDS / EXTREMELY LOW RH / HIGH HAINES
   INDEX
   
   SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE
   THROUGH THE DAY. SUSTAINED WINDS 15-25 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS
   OF 30-40 BELOW FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. RH WILL BE EXTREMELY LOW
   FROM 5-10 PERCENT WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. LOW
   TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP WITH HIGH HAINES INDEX.
   RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WINDS AND MIXING.
   
   ...CAROLINAS / GA / AL / NRN FL...
   WLY WINDS NEAR 10 MPH WILL BE PRESENT AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGH
   PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W. RH WILL AVERAGE 25-35 PERCENT
   ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S. SOME
   LOCATIONS MAY SEE RH VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT DURING PEAK HEATING
   HOURS. LOW KBDI VALUES...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST
   ONLY MARGINAL THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW RH.
   
   ...SRN OK INTO NRN TX...
   A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OK DURING THE DAY ON WED AND WILL BE
   INTO N TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. NLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE LIKELY ALONG
   
   WITH MIN RH READINGS OF 17-25 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO 50S
   OK TO THE 60S IN TX. ALTHOUGH RH LEVELS ARE MARGINAL...FIRE THREAT
   WILL BE ENHANCED IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED LITTLE RAIN
   RECENTLY...MAINLY FROM CENTRAL OK INTO NW TX.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 02/08/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 AM CST WED FEB 08 2006
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN U.S. WHICH WILL KEEP
   CONDITIONS DRY. VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN CA WITH
   OFFSHORE FLOW DECREASING. FARTHER E...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
   AMPLIFY AS IT DROPS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE MS VALLEY
   REGION...KEEPING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN U.S. RATHER COOL AND
   MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. SWLY FLOW WILL
   INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON BACK SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH.
   
   ...SRN CA...
   UPPER RIDGE ALOFT COMBINED WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FIRE
   THREAT ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AS PRESSURE
   GRADIENT RELAXES. VERY LOW HUMIDITY NEAR 10 PERCENT WILL EXIST AS
   TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER 80S. HAINES INDEX WILL REMAIN MDT TO
   HIGH ACROSS THE AREA AND RH RECOVERY WILL REMAIN POOR NEAR RIDGE
   TOPS.
   
   ...WRN OK / NWRN TX...
   A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER ERN CO AND MOVE INTO NW
   TX LATE THU AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL INCREASE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND CAUSE SWLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO
   15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 LIKELY W . MIN RH LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO
   RANGE FROM 15-20 PERCENT OVER ERN NM AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND
   CLOSER TO 25 PERCENT I-35 CORRIDOR IN OK/TX.
   
   ...CENTRAL AND SRN FL...
   UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS FL THU WITH NWLY SURFACE
   WINDS NEAR 15 MPH BRINGING IN LOWER RH VALUES OF 30-40 PERCENT. KBDI
   VALUES ARE MODERATELY LOW THUS CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
   THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 02/08/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

[TexasStooge]

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FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
409 AM CST WED FEB 8 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-090000-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
409 AM CST WED FEB 8 2006

...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
ALERT WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM TODAY FOR ALL OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR TODAY
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20
MILES AN HOUR. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S WITH HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
TODAY WITH AN INCREASED THREAT OF WILDFIRES COMPARED TO THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS.

A FIRE WEATHER ALERT IS ISSUED WHEN DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT ARE BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. A FIRE
WEATHER ALERT MAY ALSO BE ISSUED TO RELAY STATE OR COUNTY FIRE
INFORMATION...SUCH AS BURNING BANS.

[TexasStooge]

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   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0152 AM CST THU FEB 09 2006
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL AND SRN FL...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR ERN NM / NWRN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST AS A POWERFUL UPPER
   TROUGH DIGS SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. VERY WARM AND DRY AIR AND
   LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS OVER SRN CA.
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH OVER
   ERN NM AND FAR NWRN TX WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND LOW RH.
   FARTHER E...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH HIGH
   PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SERN STATES. LOW RH VALUES AND NWLY SFC
   WINDS WILL ENHANCE FIRE THREAT OVER FL.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: OFFSHORE FLOW / VERY LOW RH / HIGH HAINES INDEX
   
   UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD AS UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES EWD
   ACROSS NRN MEXICO. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE MTNS
   OF SRN CA BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS WITH WEAKER WINDS ALONG THE COAST
   DURING THE DAYTIME. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 15-20
   MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS SFC PRESSURES RISE DIURNALLY OVER THE
   PLATEAU. THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR THIS CRITICAL FIRE OUTLOOK IS THE
   EXTREMELY DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
   VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO DROP TO NEAR 10
   PERCENT WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...WITH HIGH HAINES
   INDICES. RH RECOVERY WILL REMAIN POOR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
   DRAINAGE WINDS WILL OCCUR.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - CENTRAL AND SRN FL...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / NLY WINDS
   
   HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH A CONTINUED INFLUX
   OF COOL AND DRY AIR OUT OF THE N. SUSTAINED SFC WINDS NEAR 15 MPH
   WILL BE COMMON DURING THE DAYTIME WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ALONG WITH MIN
   RH VALUES OF 25-30 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 60S. KBDI
   VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ARE MAXIMIZED SOUTH
   OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH VALUES OF 400-500...COMPARED TO VALUES LESS
   THAN 200 OVER THE REMAINDER OF FL.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 3 - TX PANHANDLE / FAR ERN NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SWLY WINDS / LOW RH
   
   A LEE SIDE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER ERN CO AND WILL MOVE SWD INTO NERN
   NM DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING NWLY UPPER FLOW
   ALOFT. THIS WILL INDUCE STRONG SWLY FLOW BY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED
   SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. STRONG HEATING AND MIXING
   WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S DESPITE
   STARTING THE MORNING WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. MIN RH WILL BE NEAR 15
   PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   LATER IN THE EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE
   AREA...SHIFTING WINDS TO NLY AT 15-20 MPH. BY THIS TIME HOWEVER...RH
   WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO 35-45 PERCENT WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.
   
   ...FL PANHANDLE INT SRN AL AND GA...
   IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
   RH VALUES IN THE 20S WILL BE COMMON DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
   THE 50S. IN ADDITION...NLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. GIVEN
   COOL TEMPERATURES AND KBDI VALUES LESS THAN 300...THREAT APPEARS
   MARGINAL.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 02/09/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0153 AM CST THU FEB 09 2006
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE AND POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   AND ERN U.S. WHILE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN TACT OVER THE FAR WRN
   STATES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REINFORCED OVER
   THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE
   LOWER 48 BY SAT MORNING. OFFSHORE FLOW MAY INCREASE LATE IN THE
   PERIOD OVER SRN CA ON AS WRN FRINGE OF NLY UPPER FLOW BACKS INTO WRN
   AZ. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS WEAK LOW
   PRESSURE FORMS WITH RAIN INTO THE FL PANHANDLE BY SAT MORNING.
   RESIDUAL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL FL HOWEVER BUT WITH LIGHT
   WIND.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: OFFSHORE FLOW / VERY LOW RH / HIGH HAINES
   
   VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN CA WITH
   OFFSHORE FLOW...WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS. DAYTIME WINDS WILL
   BE GUSTY THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER INTO
   SAT MORNING AS MAIN TROUGH TO THE E SINKS FARTHER S AND UPPER
   SUPPORT FOR SANTA ANA WINDS INCREASES.
   
   DESPITE WEAK WINDS AWAY FROM THE MTNS DURING THE DAY...COMBINATION
   OF LOW RH...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL KEEP FIRE THREAT OF FIRE HIGH.
   
   ...CENTRAL / SRN FL...
   TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY OVER FL AS AIR MASS MODIFIES...WITH
   HIGHS IN THE 60S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH. POCKETS OF LOW RH WILL
   REMAIN ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MIN VALUES NEAR
   30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GIVEN SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW OF
   LOW RH...FUELS ARE DRY.
   
   ...WRN OK INTO CENTRAL AND NW TX...
   IT WILL BE WINDY BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRI WITH RH IN THE 30 PERCENT
   RANGE WITH COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 45-55 DEGREE RANGE. SUSTAINED
   WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH.
   TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL OVERNIGHT IN THE 20S AND 30S.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 02/09/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

[TexasStooge]

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FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
845 AM CST THU FEB 9 2006

...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF THESE FACTORS
WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA AND THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS.

PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION TO PREVENT THE START OR SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DESTRUCTION OF
GRASSLANDS...LIVESTOCK...FORESTS...AND PROPERTY.

A BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND ALL OF
OKLAHOMA.

[TexasStooge]

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FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1042 AM CST THU FEB 9 2006

OKZ049-053>076-100000-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
1042 AM CST THU FEB 9 2006

...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER ALERT
WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN OKLAHOMA...
PUSHMATAHA...CHOCTAW...OSAGE...WASHINGTON...NOWATA...CRAIG...
OTTAWA...PAWNEE...TULSA...ROGERS...MAYES...DELAWARE...CREEK...OKFUSKEE...
OKMULGEE...WAGONER...CHEROKEE...ADAIR...MUSKOGEE...MCINTOSH...SEQUOYAH...
PITTSBURG...HASKELL...LATIMER AND LE FLORE.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS
COULD AID IN AGGRESSIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

A FIRE WEATHER ALERT IS ISSUED WHEN DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BUT ARE BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. A FIRE WEATHER ALERT MAY ALSO
BE ISSUED TO RELAY STATE OR COUNTY FIRE INFORMATION...SUCH AS BURNING BANS.

[TexasStooge]

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FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
845 AM CST THU FEB 9 2006

...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF THESE FACTORS
WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA AND THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS.

PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION TO PREVENT THE START OR SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DESTRUCTION OF
GRASSLANDS...LIVESTOCK...FORESTS...AND PROPERTY.

A BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND ALL OF
OKLAHOMA.