Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest Houston NWS AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 PM CST THU FEB 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CA BAJA CONTINUE
TO SPIN IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTN. ONSHORE WINDS HAVE RETURNED AND
WE SHOULD SEE THEM STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW OUT W
DEEPENS AND MOVES TOWARD US. THIS PATTERN PROGGED TO BRING A SIGNIF-
ICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE (PWS STARTING AOA 1.2" AND PEAKING AOA 1.5"
FRI AFTN) IN FROM THE SSW AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS STILL IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PCPN/TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW (18-00Z). WE
ARE STILL OUTLOOKED BY SPC AS `SEE TEXT` FOR TOMORROW AND CONSENSUS
HERE AGREES. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE VERY GOOD LIFT...VERY HIGH PWS
...FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE UPPER JET (LFQ OF 110-120KT JET)...AND
GOOD WIND SHEAR WITH HEIGHT. HOWEVER QUESTIONS CONCERNING CAP STREN-
GTH AND LIMITED INSTABILITY (THAT IS TOO MANY CLOUDS AND NOT ENOUGH
TIME TO HEAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT) ARE THE MAIN CONSIDERATIONS IN NOT
GOING WITH THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE ZONES/GRIDS FOR TOMORROW. A
FEW HOURS DIFFERENCE NOTED WITH THE TIMING OF CLEARING SKIES IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT/PCPN TOMORROW NIGHT (GFS A BIT FASTER THAN ETA).
AS ADVERTISED...STRONG CAA IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF SAT AS A STRONG
RIDGE SLIDES DOWN FROM THE NRN PLAINS. DECOUPLING WINDS/CLEAR SKIES
TO MAKE FOR A VERY COLD SUN MORNING ACROSS SE TX. A LITTLE EARLY IN
THE GAME TO SAY HOW LONG WE COULD SEE BELOW FREEZING/FREEZING TEMPS
FOR THIS TIMEPERIOD...BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THIS AS WE
GET CLOSER. A WEAK FRONT THEN PROGGED TO STALL OVER THE REGION LATE
TUE/EARLY MON AS A S/W APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND FLATTENS THE UP-
PER RIDGE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST DIVERGES SOME AFTER THIS AS THE
ECMWF PROMOTES A SLIGHTLY MORE SWLY TILT TO THE WINDS ALOFT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS A SERIES OF S/WVS ACROSS FROM
THE W/NW. THE FIRST TUES NIGHT/WED WITH NO POPS BUT THE NEXT ONE ON
FRI IS PROGGED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH COULD
SHOVEL ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLD CANADIAN AIR INTO SE TX FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

[Furious George]

Have to agree with Dan on KHOU about the models. 18z NAM further confirms this.

Still thinking upper 20s for IAH, but low 20's - don't think so. Not a very big deal to me.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the NWS low temps. are still to high (28F) if we are going to see those decoupling winds and clear skies. With 850mb temps. below -6C...we WILL see lower to middle 20s if we get good radiational cooling...no doubt about it.

[Johnny]

I've got a huge back deck. Whenever we get a freeze I water it down, let it freeze, water it down again, let freeze and water it down one more time till I get a good coat of ice on top of it. Then me and sons go out on it and do a little bit of ice skating. I've been doing this since I was a kid! If y'all want to have a little winter weather fun, this is the way to go!

[Tyler]

the NWS low temps. are still to high (28F) if we are going to see those decoupling winds and clear skies. With 850mb temps. below -6C...we WILL see lower to middle 20s if we get good radiational cooling...no doubt about it.

Agreed.

[Brent]

the NWS low temps. are still to high (28F) if we are going to see those decoupling winds and clear skies. With 850mb temps. below -6C...we WILL see lower to middle 20s if we get good radiational cooling...no doubt about it.

I'm going to remember this quote come Sunday. I just don't think it's going to get that low at IAH.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Have to agree with Dan on KHOU about the models. 18z NAM further confirms this.

Still thinking upper 20s for IAH, but low 20's - don't think so. Not a very big deal to me.

how does the 18Z NAM confirm this? looks to me like it is still showing below -6C 850mb temps. with this thing...and the NAM is warmer than the GFS. Just to let you know...-6C 850mb temps. means that the upper air temps. would be near 21. In good radiational cooling situations...the ground temps. reflect those numbers. Also...if we are more in line with the GFS...we could see 850mb temps. as low as -8C or -9C which would be 16F - 18F over our heads (which could be reflected at ground level under GREAT radiational cooling). So if all goes according to plan; Lower to middle 20s look like they are more than just "possible".

[Tyler]

Latest Houston NWS AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 PM CST THU FEB 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CA BAJA CONTINUE
TO SPIN IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTN. ONSHORE WINDS HAVE RETURNED AND
WE SHOULD SEE THEM STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW OUT W
DEEPENS AND MOVES TOWARD US. THIS PATTERN PROGGED TO BRING A SIGNIF-
ICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE (PWS STARTING AOA 1.2" AND PEAKING AOA 1.5"
FRI AFTN) IN FROM THE SSW AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS STILL IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PCPN/TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW (18-00Z). WE
ARE STILL OUTLOOKED BY SPC AS `SEE TEXT` FOR TOMORROW AND CONSENSUS
HERE AGREES. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE VERY GOOD LIFT...VERY HIGH PWS
...FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE UPPER JET (LFQ OF 110-120KT JET)...AND
GOOD WIND SHEAR WITH HEIGHT. HOWEVER QUESTIONS CONCERNING CAP STREN-
GTH AND LIMITED INSTABILITY (THAT IS TOO MANY CLOUDS AND NOT ENOUGH
TIME TO HEAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT) ARE THE MAIN CONSIDERATIONS IN NOT
GOING WITH THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE ZONES/GRIDS FOR TOMORROW. A
FEW HOURS DIFFERENCE NOTED WITH THE TIMING OF CLEARING SKIES IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT/PCPN TOMORROW NIGHT (GFS A BIT FASTER THAN ETA).
AS ADVERTISED...STRONG CAA IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF SAT AS A STRONG
RIDGE SLIDES DOWN FROM THE NRN PLAINS. DECOUPLING WINDS/CLEAR SKIES
TO MAKE FOR A VERY COLD SUN MORNING ACROSS SE TX. A LITTLE EARLY IN
THE GAME TO SAY HOW LONG WE COULD SEE BELOW FREEZING/FREEZING TEMPS
FOR THIS TIMEPERIOD...BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THIS AS WE
GET CLOSER. A WEAK FRONT THEN PROGGED TO STALL OVER THE REGION LATE
TUE/EARLY MON AS A S/W APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND FLATTENS THE UP-
PER RIDGE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST DIVERGES SOME AFTER THIS AS THE
ECMWF PROMOTES A SLIGHTLY MORE SWLY TILT TO THE WINDS ALOFT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS A SERIES OF S/WVS ACROSS FROM
THE W/NW. THE FIRST TUES NIGHT/WED WITH NO POPS BUT THE NEXT ONE ON
FRI IS PROGGED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH COULD
SHOVEL ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLD CANADIAN AIR INTO SE TX FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

Another significant shot! Geez. Winter took a break in January, and now it won't let up!

[Tyler]

Have to agree with Dan on KHOU about the models. 18z NAM further confirms this.

Still thinking upper 20s for IAH, but low 20's - don't think so. Not a very big deal to me.

how does the 18Z NAM confirm this? looks to me like it is still showing below -6C 850mb temps. with this thing...and the NAM is warmer than the GFS. Just to let you know...-6C 850mb temps. means that the upper air temps. would be near 21. In good radiational cooling situations...the ground temps. reflect those numbers. Also...if we are more in line with the GFS...we could see 850mb temps. as low as -8C or -9C which would be 16F - 18F over our heads (which could be reflected at ground level under GREAT radiational cooling). [/i]

Yes, I agree. C'mon guys, we told ya it would be getting colder and there was a pattern change coming, yet some people didn't believe us. Well, the pattern change has already taken place, and now ya'll are arguing its not going to get cold? Look, when you wake up sunday morning and you walk outside and its 25 degrees, don't say I didn't warn you.

And if I'm wrong, I'll eat a rotten tomatoe, or something...

[Portastorm]

Sorry some of you guys in Houston are still having heartburn over your local NWS forecast. I guess we got lucky today in Austin. I really like the new forecast for us and think its reasonable and matches up well with the model support.

Lows Friday night near freezing
Saturday: Sunny with highs in the low 50s (this might be a bit optimistic)
Saturday night: Lows in the mid 20s
Sunday through Monday: Highs in the low 60s, lows near 30.

Good, solid forecast I think. Hats off to the NWS guys at Austin/San Antonio!

[MiamiensisWx]

The Miami NWS has finally started to change it's tune to a more realistic level, portraying the series of cold fronts expected to move through southern Florida.

000
FLUS42 KMFL 091925 CCA
HWOMFL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
225 PM EST THU FEB 9 2006

FLZ063-066>075-101900-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
225 PM EST THU FEB 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WAVES: SEAS WILL BE 5 TO 7 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM THIS EVENING AND WILL
SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 6 FEET TONIGHT.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT...
...NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO NEAR FREEZING OVER INLAND AREAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT http://WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.
$$

Yay!

[Tyler]

Houston's forecast now calls for upper 20's saturday night (brrrr!). The only thing I have a problem with, is they fail to mention falling temps into the 40's friday, and they also have saturday's highs to high. We won't reach 50, you can count on that.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Houston's forecast now calls for upper 20's saturday night (brrrr!). The only thing I have a problem with, is they fail to mention falling temps into the 40's friday, and they also have saturday's highs to high. We won't reach 50, you can count on that.

29 at IAH is still too warm though, and 31 downtown is as well. They still need to lower these numbers by 3-6 degrees.

[Furious George]

And this is for north of IAH, where yes, I expect upper 20's. But by the time I get out of the house on Sunday, I expect a nice Sunny day in the 40's! Hopefully the event next weekend brings more action.

MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLDSPRING...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
LIVINGSTON...SHEPHERD...THE WOODLANDS
345 PM CST THU FEB 9 2006

.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WARMER. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING WEST 10 TO
15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDER. LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTH
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

[MiamiensisWx]

Interesting Miami NWS latest discussion...

000
FXUS62 KMFL 091856
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
156 PM EST THU FEB 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST U.S WILL MOVE TO WESTERN
ATLAC BY FRI EVENING. EXPECT LOW LVL FLOW TO TURN MORE
EAST/SOUTHEAST FRIDAY WITH TEMPS GETTING CLOSER TO CLIMO VALUES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE POLAR JET DIGGING ALL THE WAY SOUTH FROM
NRN CANADA TO NRN GULF COAST BY SAT AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA SATURDAY.

ONE OF THE BIG QUESTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS...THUNDER OR NO THUNDER? AS IT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE
MORE FAVORABLE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA BUT MAIN ENERGY WILL BE
THEN TRANSFER NEWD WITH NO SO FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AS THE FRONT GETS
TO SOUTH FLORIDA. DECIDED NOT TO MENTION TSTMS AND WILL ONLY
INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. WL
EXPECT FROPA OVER MIAMI BEFORE MIDNIGHT SATURDAY AND STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING THROUGH. LEFT OVER MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL STILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SO MAX TEMPS MAY NOT
EVEN MAKE IT TO THE MID 60S. BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO MAKE
SUNDAY A RATHER "COLD" DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

HOWEVER...IS MONDAY THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
GFS HAS VERY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE 1320 THICKNESS LINE (1000-
850MB) ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS
MEANS THAT THERE IS A VERY HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR A FREEZE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA (NOT EASTERN METRO AREAS)...HOWEVER LATEST RUN OF
GFSX ACTUALLY FORECAST HIGHER TEMPS WITH MIN ONLY DROPPING TO JUST
ABOVE FREEZING OVER GLADES COUNTY...NOT TO MENTION MUCH WARMER
TEMPS ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. OF COURSE WILL NOT JUMP
ON THIS AND WILL TRY TO KEEP CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
MDLS TEND TO FLIP BACK AND FORTH AND WILL NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE
COOLER TEMPS IN THE NEXT RUN. NEVERTHELESS...CONFIDENT LEVEL IS
LOW SO WILL HOLD ON ANY FREEZE OUTLOOK FOR THE TIME
BEING...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

TEMPS WILL START TO RECUPERATE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A RETURN OF EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT UNDER LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW.
STILL WILL KEEP A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LAGGING
EFFECT. SEAS SHOULD BECOME ROUGH AGAIN BY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS LIKELY A RED FLAG WARNING WILL
BE ISSUED LATER FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA (IF NOT ALL) AS MEAN RH
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 35% FOR AT LEAST 4 HOURS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MEAN RH WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL DROP AGAIN BELOW CRITICAL VALUES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 48 72 57 80 / 5 5 5 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 51 72 61 82 / 5 5 5 20
MIAMI 51 73 62 81 / 5 5 5 20
NAPLES 46 69 55 74 / 5 5 5 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN
REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO
DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH
TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NMTO THE TERRITORIAL
WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO
DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

47

[Brent]

WOW!!! The 0 degree line reaches Naples and West Palm Beach Late Sunday...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_078l.gif

[MiamiensisWx]

Prepare for the Miami NWS discussions for return of zonal flow to bust!

[Extremeweatherguy]

ok for all those in Houston who think IAH will be 29+...

The forecast low in VICTORIA is 27 on Sunday night! I do not see how a place south of us, could end up being 2 degrees colder then what you are thinking Houston will be (unless there was clouds here and not there, or something similar...which is not expected). If Victoria hits 27...then I would expect at least 25 at IAH.

[Furious George]

Have to agree with Dan on KHOU about the models. 18z NAM further confirms this.

Still thinking upper 20s for IAH, but low 20's - don't think so. Not a very big deal to me.

how does the 18Z NAM confirm this? looks to me like it is still showing below -6C 850mb temps. with this thing...and the NAM is warmer than the GFS. Just to let you know...-6C 850mb temps. means that the upper air temps. would be near 21. In good radiational cooling situations...the ground temps. reflect those numbers. Also...if we are more in line with the GFS...we could see 850mb temps. as low as -8C or -9C which would be 16F - 18F over our heads (which could be reflected at ground level under GREAT radiational cooling). [/i]

Yes, I agree. C'mon guys, we told ya it would be getting colder and there was a pattern change coming, yet some people didn't believe us. Well, the pattern change has already taken place, and now ya'll are arguing its not going to get cold? Look, when you wake up sunday morning and you walk outside and its 25 degrees, don't say I didn't warn you.

And if I'm wrong, I'll eat a rotten tomatoe, or something...

I'm not arguing it's not going to be cold - upper 20's is cold to me! And of course there was going to be a pattern change in the neary 1 month timeframe this thread has been open for. And there will be more pattern changes before winter is over. I think many have posted great links and given great insight on this thread that have helped us all understand that winter is back this weekend - even if it is slightly modified.

[Extremeweatherguy]

here is (part of) a special weather statement issued from the CORPUS CHRISTI NWS:

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES IN MORE THAN A YEAR ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS. MOST OF THE INLAND LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 32 DEGREES. ISOLATED POCKETS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF AN
ENCINAL TO BEEVILLE TO VICTORIA LINE WILL DROP DOWN BRIEFLY TO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S SUNDAY MORNING. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE A HARD FREEZE FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COASTAL BEND
AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD PREPARE
NOW FOR THESE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. PREPARATIONS SUCH AS
PROTECTING TENDER VEGETATION AND EXPOSED PIPES SHOULD BE
CONSIDERED.

Once again...if it is THAT cold down there...it WILL be colder up here.