Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Tyler]

Corpus Christi mentions lower to mid 20's. Wow.

They mention "coldest temperatures in nearly a year". Thats why this is such a big deal.

[MiamiensisWx]

Tyler, do you think that southern Florida will get a very good blast from this?

[Brent]

ok for all those in Houston who think IAH will be 29+...

The forecast low in VICTORIA is 27 on Sunday night! I do not see how a place south of us, could end up being 2 degrees colder then what you are thinking Houston will be (unless there was clouds here and not there, or something similar...which is not expected). If Victoria hits 27...then I would expect at least 25 at IAH.

Houston=Heat Island.

[Tyler]

ok for all those in Houston who think IAH will be 29+...

The forecast low in VICTORIA is 27 on Sunday night! I do not see how a place south of us, could end up being 2 degrees colder then what you are thinking Houston will be (unless there was clouds here and not there, or something similar...which is not expected). If Victoria hits 27...then I would expect at least 25 at IAH.

Houston=Heat Island.

Not the airport, only downtown. The airport actually does ok during radiational cooling, unlike DFW in Dallas.

[MiamiensisWx]

Umm, Tyler... sorry if I sound annoying, but can you answer my question if southern Florida will get a very good blast from this cold air? I would like some more information from you!

[vbhoutex]

After looking at the latest run of the models, I have to move more in line with Tyler and EWG, but not totally. IF we have perfect radiational cooling, Sunday's lows should be in the mid to upper 20's from I-10 to the N, from 22-27 from IAH up towards Conroe, and possibly right around 20 in Conroe. All of the caveats I mentioned previously still apply here, but the models are definitely trending colder and still staying to the West. Those caveats are the wind(some forecasts are predicting some light winds Saturday night and Sunday am-this could bring the temps up a few degrees from what I am saying right now) and clouds more than anything. I do believe that most of the Houston Metro area will see temps in the 20's Sunday morning, even if only for a short time with Galveston at least approaching 32 if not reaching it. The "heat island" areas will see upper 20's to 32. Heat Island areas being basically inside the 610 loop within about 10 miles of downtown). The midburbs, as I call where I live in Spring Branch could get close to 27 or so. COLD in my book!!!

[Tyler]

Tyler, do you think that southern Florida will get a very good blast from this?

Yes, I think ya'll will see some very cold temperatures for southern Florida. Highs on sunday will be cool, highs struggling to reach 60, probably only upper 50s. Sunday night is your coldest night, with lows in the mid to upper 30's, as 850 temps slide to 0., depending on location from the coast..

Bundle up!

[Extremeweatherguy]

ok for all those in Houston who think IAH will be 29+...

The forecast low in VICTORIA is 27 on Sunday night! I do not see how a place south of us, could end up being 2 degrees colder then what you are thinking Houston will be (unless there was clouds here and not there, or something similar...which is not expected). If Victoria hits 27...then I would expect at least 25 at IAH.

Houston=Heat Island.

Not the airport, only downtown. The airport actually does ok during radiational cooling, unlike DFW in Dallas.

Yeah the airports do ok (except Hobby...since it is closer to the coast). The suburbs are also much cooler and my house is in a "cool pocket" which can be 3-6F colder than the airport during good radiational cooling.

[Tyler]

ok for all those in Houston who think IAH will be 29+...

The forecast low in VICTORIA is 27 on Sunday night! I do not see how a place south of us, could end up being 2 degrees colder then what you are thinking Houston will be (unless there was clouds here and not there, or something similar...which is not expected). If Victoria hits 27...then I would expect at least 25 at IAH.

Houston=Heat Island.

Not the airport, only downtown. The airport actually does ok during radiational cooling, unlike DFW in Dallas.

Yeah the airports do ok (except Hobby...since it is closer to the coast). The suburbs are also much cooler and my house is in a "cool pocket" which can be 3-6F colder than the airport during good radiational cooling.

Same here, my temps are always 3-6 cooler. However, for an airport, IAH does really well with radiational cooling, they must have the thermometer in a very good spot.

DFW in Dallas, sometimes we are cooler than them. I don't know whats up with that.

[Tyler]

Umm, Tyler... sorry if I sound annoying, but can you answer my question if southern Florida will get a very good blast from this cold air? I would like some more information from you!

I answered ya. Look above.

[aggiecutter]

Let it snow..Let it snow...Let it snow...

Forcast for Texarkana....

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... 3&map.y=89

[Tyler]

Let it snow..Let it snow...Let it snow...

Forcast for Texarkana....

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... 3&map.y=89

I'm guessing you live in Texarkana, if so, good luck!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Let it snow..Let it snow...Let it snow...

Forcast for Texarkana....

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... 3&map.y=89

I'm guessing you live in Texarkana, if so, good luck!

wish I lived in Texarkana...

[gboudx]

Let it snow..Let it snow...Let it snow...

Forcast for Texarkana....

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... 3&map.y=89

Pretty similar for me too. DFW mentions that it'll be a function of timing on how quickly the dry air moves in. Maybe when I'm heading home tomorrow, there'll be some flakes flying.

[Tyler]

I want to move north. Oh well, we get the best thunderstorms down here anyway.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I want to move north. Oh well, we get the best thunderstorms down here anyway.

the coolest thing would be if the outgoing precip. managed to mix in with some of the cold air Friday night (and drying air too) and produce a flurry or two in the Houston area. Now this is only a wish, but it would be really cool.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _036.shtml
^^Look how close we are going to be^^

Who knows...remember that sleet event awhile back...that too was completely un-expected...may be we can get a similar scenario this time around as well. Also, though air temps. will be 32-37...the dewpoints (and upper air temps) will be low enough to support sleet/snow to fall Friday night...the problem will be that the moisture will just not be around by that point in time. May be we can get a miracle... I hope so.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/hazards/
^^guys check out this cool system they have with the NWS in Miami. They need to get something like this set up for Houston! You can click on the different categories on the top to see what the impacts will be for the area on that day in different areas and it gives you a key. Very cool.^^

**yes, this was a little off topic **

[Tyler]

I want to move north. Oh well, we get the best thunderstorms down here anyway.

the coolest thing would be if the outgoing precip. managed to mix in with some of the cold air Friday night (and drying air too) and produce a flurry or two in the Houston area. Now this is only a wish, but it would be really cool.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _036.shtml
^^Look how close we are going to be^^

Who knows...remember that sleet event awhile back...that too was completely un-expected...may be we can get a similar scenario this time around as well. Also, though air temps. will be 32-37...the dewpoints (and upper air temps) will be low enough to support sleet/snow to fall Friday night...the problem will be that the moisture will just not be around by that point in time. May be we can get a miracle... I hope so.

I remember that sleet event. Wasn't here for it, but I heard of many people seeing sleet. With such cold air diving into SE TX, there could be stray amounts of moisture left to produce a sleet pellot/snow flurry. You just never know!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well i just saw 2 news forecasts. One was good...the good one (Dr. Neil Franks) had 20s in the forecast...the bad one (Frank B's on Channel 2) had 30 as the low at IAH and 32-34 downtown. These numbers will bust big time. There is no way IAH is above 28 on Sunday night (unless freak cloud cover or wind moves in).

[Tyler]

Ya, Dr. Neil has this situation pegged right now... News stations in Houston have ALWAYS been scared to put 20s in the forecast. I don't know why. The lowest they will go is 30, before they finally give in at the last minute...