February 1-15: A Snowy Pattern Unfolds

[donsutherland1]

Anthony,

I'll probably include more details when I come out with my February 16-29 discussion. That will probably be around Sunday or Monday--probably more likely on Monday.

Best wishes.

[donsutherland1]

Hybridstorm_November2001,

I know the flavor, myself. I doubt that there's anyone on these weather boards who hasn't occasionally had the opportunity to dine on crow (actually, I've had crow's foot when I was on vacation in Asia).

[donsutherland1]

Verification:

In this thread, it was noted:

February looks to be snowier than normal from at least Washington, DC to Boston. There is some potential that it could be special in terms of snowfall…

I believe February 2006 will see the following monthly snowfall amounts:

Boston: 12” or more
New York City: 10” or more
Philadelphia: 10” or more
Washington, DC (DCA): 8” or more

The major February 11-12 snowstorm brought all of these cities to these levels and beyond. Current monthly totals through February 15 are:

Boston: 17.5”
New York City: 26.9”
Philadelphia: 12.0”
Washington, DC (DCA): 8.8”

New York City is within reach of possibly experiencing its snowiest month on record. That record is held by March 1896 with 30.5”. 3.7” will establish a new record and I believe per my February 16-28 discussion that this is likely.

The past four winters have had some remarkable highlights for the East:

∙ Boston and Baltimore set single storm snowfall records in February 18-23, 2003 snowstorm.
∙ New York City has had 3 consecutive winters with 40” or more snowfall and is within striking distance of a 4th. The old record was 2.
∙ New York City now has 4 consecutive winters in which the city has received a snowstorm of 12” or more for the first time since 1853-54 through 1856-57.
∙ New York City established a single-storm snowfall record in the February 11-12, 2006 storm.

While I confined my latest discussion to February 16-28, it remains my thinking that March will likely see above normal snowfall figures for much of the East and possibly below normal temperatures, too, if one factors in the ENSO anomalies, PDO, and QBO. Per such winters, the NAO has often gone strongly negative. A classic example was March 1984. It would not surprise me to see a fairly strong block (NAO: -2.00 or below) develop as February progresses toward March. Some weak La Niña winters with a PDO+ and QBO- wound up with such blocks i.e., 1983-84 and 1995-96.

Hence, the possible moderation near month’s end should not be severe nor prolonged. So, if moderation does occur, I do not believe one should rush to raise the white flag on winter. Winter very likely will not be finished.

∙ February 1-7: Temperatures from Washington, DC to Boston should average near normal to somewhat above normal. As previously discussed, the cooldown is likely to be gradual.

This period remained much warmer than normal but temperatures did gradually trend downward. The magnitude of warmth was greater than I expected:

February 1-7 Anomalies were:
Boston: +10.3°
New York City: +11.0°
Philadelphia: +10.3°
Washington, DC (DCA): +8.6°

February 5-7 Anomalies were:
Boston: +8.1
New York City: +7.0°
Philadelphia: +6.3°
Washington, DC (DCA): +3.0°

∙ February 8-15: Overall readings in the Richmond to Boston areas should be somewhat below normal.. There is a chance of at least one or more days lows < 20° from Richmond to Boston.

February 8-15 Anomalies were:
Boston: -2.6°
New York City: -1.1°
Philadelphia: -1.5°
Washington, DC (DCA): -1.9°

Minimum temperatures < 20°:
Boston: 16°, 2/10; 18°, 2/11; 16°, 2/12; 17°, 2/13
New York City: 19°, 2/13
Philadelphia: 17°, 2/13
Providence: 19°, 2/10; 18°, 2/12; 14°, 2/13
Richmond: 19°, 2/10
Washington, DC (DCA): None

∙ Washington, DC, Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston should all see some accumulations snow in the first week in February. More significant accumulations are possible during the second week.

Boston picked up a trace of snow on February 6. None of the other cities saw snowfall during the first week in February, as readings were much warmer than normal. The second week saw the blockbuster February 11-12 snowstorm.

[JBG]

DonSutherland, good summary.