Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Nice statistics EWG!

check out the latest 30 hr. NAM Tyler. Flurries/sleet on the backside of the rain sheild all the way to Houston? Looks like a 20% chance at best...but hey...the chance looks like it is there.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _030.shtml

[Johnny]

Good find EWG. That is what I was alluding to when this happened back in early December. A very minute possibility but it's there.

[Tyler]

Nice statistics EWG!

check out the latest 30 hr. NAM Tyler. Flurries/sleet on the backside of the rain sheild all the way to Houston? Looks like a 20% chance at best...but hey...the chance looks like it is there.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _030.shtml

Wow EWG. We can only hope for moisture to wrap around the low pressure area like that. The cold is there (like always), the problem is moisture. But if the NAM is correct, we at least have a chance.

Also of note, NAM much colder now, -8 to -9C 850 temps. Quite a flop from 18z.

[Tyler]

0z NAM 54 hour:



This run is the coldest I've seen yet from the NAM for everyone in the south. Also, obviously some of the colder air goes east of SE TX (Mobile, AL almost to -12C!), BUT to say that is not being fair. Its not as if we miss it all, in fact we get quite a blow. If you call lows in the lower to mid 20's missing the cold air, you are mistaken my friend.

[Tyler]

Northern Alabama and Mississippi gets some snow!

SE TX POSSIBLE FLURRYS!?

36 hour pressure and precip:



36 hour 850MB temps:

[Extremeweatherguy]

Usually models like to warm up before an arctic front arrives, thus ruining our forecasts and making us feel like it will never get cold. This time, however, the models look to be getting cooler as we get closer. I would call that a good sign to just how cold we will be this weekend. Weird to think that we just had Houston's 10th warmest January, but that this Sunday morning it will be the coldest we have seen in 4 years. I just hope that 20% chance of sleet/snow plays out.

[Tyler]

I agree Extreme. That 10th warmest January is a thing of the past. Now we look foward to several days of below average temps.

[Tyler]

If you look at those 36 hour maps above, the NAM has a bit of precip and enough cold for snow flurries...

[Extremeweatherguy]

If you look at those 36 hour maps above, the NAM has a bit of precip and enough cold for snow flurries...

yeah...i would not be surprised to wake up Saturday morning to a few flurries or snow grains across the Houston area. Any flurries would probably end by late morning and not stick...but the fact that there is now a slight "chance" is exciting. Of course the NWS and local mets will never see it coming if it does happen..so I won't be expecting a forecast for it.

[Stormcenter]

I'm working in Jackson, Mississippi right now. What are the chances of me seeing some snow flakes here?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

After looking back on this thread and given the turn of events of the last week, I almost think Tyler and Extremeweatherguy willed this arctic cold front ...

We both have that power ya know!

Alrightee then ... how about if you spin up a winter weather event for most of Texas next weekend, ok?

You got it!

FYI, I do expect another shot of canadian air next weekend. GFS and ECMWF both support it. The next shot may be colder, as aggiecutter has pointed out as well...

Jb said that also. I think we will not warm up as fast as the NWS wants to warm up things next week before the next shot comes in. I thought it was funny that NWS Houston is on board for next weeks cold snap when they poop poed this one till the last minute.

[Brent]

0z NAM 54 hour:
http://monkeynetwork.com/model/nam.gif

Brrrr...

[gboudx]

DFW backing off a bit on snow tomorrow evening. Still rain, but less chance of snow. Times like this, my experience is that it could go either way.

[Tyler]

0z GFS MOS guidance says 25 degrees sunday morning! COLD

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/Guidance/G ... KIAH.1.txt

[Tyler]

Ok, 0z models say:

NAM: 30
GFS: 25
NGM: 25

I'm calling for 26 degrees, hopefully I didn't go too warm...

[Extremeweatherguy]

We'll this just shows that the NWS is relying only on the MOS guidance...sounds like a bad idea to me considering it usually busts in the face of an arctic front!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
914 PM CST THU FEB 9 2006

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO UPDATE IS
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
THICKENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (RISING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES).
SOME RADAR ECHOES ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP TO OUR WEST. THIS STUFF
IS PROBABLY EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. EXPECT SOUTHEAST
TEXAS ACTIVITY TO BEGIN TO PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT
MORE LIKELY TOWARD SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK
LIKE A VERY GOOD BET TOMORROW WITH A VERY MOIST FEBRUARY AIRMASS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES)...VERY STRONG
LIFT AND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACTING AS A FOCUSING BOUNDARY. BESIDES
THE RAIN (STILL LIKE THIS MORNING`S HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PREDICTION OF FRIDAY`S RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGING 1/2 TO 1 INCH WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE)...THE BIG STORY WILL BE
THE STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS) AND THE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN
STORE FOR THE AREA. SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE WEEKEND AS WINDS DIE DOWN AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
AREA. THE NEW ETA MOS GUIDANCE JUST IN HAS PREDICTED LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING OF 26 DEGREES AT CLL...30 DEGREES AT IAH AND 34 DEGREES AT
GALVESTON. CLL`S LOWEST TEMPERATURE FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF JANUARY
WAS 32 DEGREES...IAH`S WAS 33 DEGREES AND GLS`S WAS 44 DEGREES.

It will be colder than 30....especially with that great radiational cooling they keep hinting at. In the end...models are bad with surface temperatures during this kind of situation. The NWS should make it's own forecast based on meteorology and not just models. -6C or colder 850mb temps, clear skies and calm winds would lead to lows in the lower to middle 20s.

[Extremeweatherguy]

0Z GFS seems to show a possible "slight (10-20%)" chance of wintry precip. Saturday morning as well...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _024.shtml
^^24 hrs.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _030.shtml
^^30 hrs.^^

[Tyler]

Hey NWS, why don't you look at the GFS as well. As a matter a fact, look at the NGM, it has the best handle on things...

I have looked at tonight's 0z model runs and really don't have any changes to my thoughts. Rain tommorow, cold day saturday with highs in the mid to upper 40s. And saturday night, the hard freeze, with lows in the mid 20s north of IH-10, upper 20s south.

FYI:

Temps go like this on 0z models:

Saturday:

GFS 56/25 High temp WAY too warm
NAM 55/30 Just out to lunch here
NGM 50/25 Best handling with temps here

Remember, protect ya'lls plants saturday night! And of course, stay warm!

[Brent]

0Z GFS seems to show a possible "slight (10-20%)" chance of wintry precip. Saturday morning as well...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _024.shtml
^^24 hrs.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _030.shtml
^^30 hrs.^^

Not anywhere close to Houston...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hey NWS, why don't you look at the GFS as well. As a matter a fact, look at the NGM, it has the best handle on things...

I have looked at tonight's 0z model runs and really don't have any changes to my thoughts. Rain tommorow, cold day saturday with highs in the mid to upper 40s. And saturday night, the hard freeze, with lows in the mid 20s north of IH-10, upper 20s south.

FYI:

Temps go like this on 0z models:

Saturday:

GFS 56/25 High temp WAY too warm
NAM 55/30 Just out to lunch here
NGM 50/25 Best handling with temps here

Remember, protect ya'lls plants saturday night! And of course, stay warm!

the good news is that the morning NWS shift sometimes is more in touch with reality, so I am expecting a good forecast from them tomorrow morning (well...let's at least hope for one)! I think I would consider a good NWS forecast, at this point, a high of 50 or below, and a low of 26-27 or below.