Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Also...they have been mentioning PERFECT radiational cooling all week, and then this morning they go and put 5-15mph winds in the forecast for Sat. night? sounds like they might be using that as an excuse for why they are not forecasting cooler. hmmm.

All this NWS bashing is starting to get irritating. Why would they use that as an excuse? What overall purpose does that serve? If you guys would analyse something in addition to 850 mb temperatures and the strength of the surface ridge axis, you could see why their forecast includes 15 mph wind for Saturday night. High pressure is still building in at that time, while cold air advection remains continuous, with winds backing towards the NW. By early Sunday morning, high pressure has ridged in and slackened the pressure gradient enough so that the surface might very well decouple.

Why is the NWS bashing getting iriritating? Up until Wednesday most of the offices in Texas and some in the south were not paying attention to this cold opportunity because they were hugging every run of the GFS. IF one run told them warm, they went with warm forecast. Several posters on here posted evidence from several other models almost a week or more out that we had a chance to get real cold this weekend. Portastorm and I have talked about some old cats that are retired now in Brownsville that were real good about forecasting cold for Texas because they relied on historical data in addition to models. That is sorely lacking in some cases today and that goes with Hurricanes too. But that is the computer age for you.

[CajunMama]

Also...they have been mentioning PERFECT radiational cooling all week, and then this morning they go and put 5-15mph winds in the forecast for Sat. night? sounds like they might be using that as an excuse for why they are not forecasting cooler. hmmm.

All this NWS bashing is starting to get irritating. Why would they use that as an excuse? What overall purpose does that serve? If you guys would analyse something in addition to 850 mb temperatures and the strength of the surface ridge axis, you could see why their forecast includes 15 mph wind for Saturday night. High pressure is still building in at that time, while cold air advection remains continuous, with winds backing towards the NW. By early Sunday morning, high pressure has ridged in and slackened the pressure gradient enough so that the surface might very well decouple.

Why is the NWS bashing getting iriritating? Up until Wednesday most of the offices in Texas and some in the south were not paying attention to this cold opportunity because they were hugging every run of the GFS. IF one run told them warm, they went with warm forecast. Several posters on here posted evidence from several other models almost a week or more out that we had a chance to get real cold this weekend. Portastorm and I have talked about some old cats that are retired now in Brownsville that were real good about forecasting cold for Texas because they relied on historical data in addition to models. That is sorely lacking in some cases today and that goes with Hurricanes too. But that is the computer age for you.

The poor NWS...they don't stand a chance with y'all. If they had forecasted the cold and it didn't get cold or cold enough it would be their fault. They don't forecast the cold early enough y'all complain. Please please please go get your met degree and we can all have perfect forecast

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Also...they have been mentioning PERFECT radiational cooling all week, and then this morning they go and put 5-15mph winds in the forecast for Sat. night? sounds like they might be using that as an excuse for why they are not forecasting cooler. hmmm.

All this NWS bashing is starting to get irritating. Why would they use that as an excuse? What overall purpose does that serve? If you guys would analyse something in addition to 850 mb temperatures and the strength of the surface ridge axis, you could see why their forecast includes 15 mph wind for Saturday night. High pressure is still building in at that time, while cold air advection remains continuous, with winds backing towards the NW. By early Sunday morning, high pressure has ridged in and slackened the pressure gradient enough so that the surface might very well decouple.

Why is the NWS bashing getting iriritating? Up until Wednesday most of the offices in Texas and some in the south were not paying attention to this cold opportunity because they were hugging every run of the GFS. IF one run told them warm, they went with warm forecast. Several posters on here posted evidence from several other models almost a week or more out that we had a chance to get real cold this weekend. Portastorm and I have talked about some old cats that are retired now in Brownsville that were real good about forecasting cold for Texas because they relied on historical data in addition to models. That is sorely lacking in some cases today and that goes with Hurricanes too. But that is the computer age for you.

The poor NWS...they don't stand a chance with y'all. If they had forecasted the cold and it didn't get cold or cold enough it would be their fault. They don't forecast the cold early enough y'all complain. Please please please go get your met degree and we can all have perfect forecast

Using your logic then we shouldn't criticize a judge when he or she makes a bone headed decesion because some of us don't have law degrees. Or god forbid we can't criticize the media because some us don't have journalism degrees. No, read the NWS AFD's on regular basis and just see how inconsistent they are from shift to shift AT SOME OFFICES, NOT ALL. Or the lack of coordination between offices with cold weather events in particular when you will have a couple of neighboring counties have 10 degree or more temp difference from two different offices.

Again a few of the offices had discounted the upcoming cold shot. Some didn't early on like Corpus, Amarillo, Dallas and Norman.


Psst. Let me give you another hint. There is a reason why their is a demand for private weather forecasting. Think about that for a minute.

[vbhoutex]

Think about the fact that we have several NWS mets who are members here. I for one, if I were constantly bashed by those that wished they had the knowledge and schooling I had for my profession, would take my leave and go elsewhere where my expertise would be appreciated. There is a huge difference between questioning a forecast and stating why and saying the NWS doesn't know what they are doing. One of the rules at S2K is that we do not BASH the public agencies. Questioning the forecasts is ok, bashing the agency is not. Fair warning.

Now back to the matter at hand. I am now backing off on my post of yesterday. Why? One look at the temps to our North this am tells me that this air mass has modified quite a bit. Only 21 in Montana? LOL!!!! It won't get to the low 20's in Houston with that going on. My guess is that IAH willnow see somewhere around 28 with 30 closer to I-10. Maybe some mid 20's near Conroe. As I said yesterday the winds were not going calm. That was the first clue.

[gboudx]

I could argue that a judge performs his/her job with far more absolutes than a meteorologist. Over the years I'm come to really respect the meteorological field, because there are so many fluid factors to consider in making a forecast. There are virtually no absolutes. I think the NWS does a fantastic job at what they do. What we don't know are the conversations that go in inside their offices. Don't think for a second they don't see one thing, but forecast another. Why? Because they have to be responsible to a degree to the public. And what does it hurt to change a forecast as the period gets closer? None. This isn't a hurricane barreling through the GOM. It's a cold front. Not life and death IMO.

[Portastorm]

As a S2K member who has hammered on some NWS offices (I don't know if you'd qualify my comments as "bashing" or "questioning"), I feel I need to weigh in here. Like any other business, NWS has forecasters who are talented and more seasoned and some who aren't. My sense is the vast majority of NWS forecasters are very good and very talented ... but no doubt there may be a few duds in there as well.

I don't think any NWS forecaster tries to "cover up" or make excuses for the forecast. They take all of the tools and data they have in hand and do the best they can. It seems like maybe we place unrealistic expectations on these guys if we expect a perfect forecast 72 hours out of an event. For example, the east coast NWS guys were very skeptical of a snowstorm this weekend earlier this week. Now, winter storm watches and even blizzard watches are all up and down the East Coast. Why? Because more data has come in and the forecasters have honed in on their best efforts. Same thing here in Texas.

This has been a good exercise I think for all of us and it has helped me re-evaluate my thoughts on the NWS forecasters. Will I continue to question them? Sure! It's my American right to free speech and if I see something that really makes me think "what the heck!?", I may say something. But I think we do them a disservice if we start to suspect that they have hidden agendas.

OK, I'll step down off my soapbox now.

Oh ... and I do agree with CC that private weather companies do provide good competition ... which should make everyone better!

[aggiecutter]

As houtex pointed out above, this is not the mother of all air masses. The source region of this air mass in Canada is only in the teens at this hour. Actually, that is probably above normal for that part of North America...

http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag226.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

As houtex pointed out above, this is not the mother of all air masses. The source region of this air mass in Canada is only in the teens at this hour. Actually, that is probably above normal for that part of North America...

http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag226.html

According to that image it is -17 in Wyoming though! I would call that VERY cold.

[Furious George]

Think about the fact that we have several NWS mets who are members here. I for one, if I were constantly bashed by those that wished they had the knowledge and schooling I had for my profession, would take my leave and go elsewhere where my expertise would be appreciated. There is a huge difference between questioning a forecast and stating why and saying the NWS doesn't know what they are doing. One of the rules at S2K is that we do not BASH the public agencies. Questioning the forecasts is ok, bashing the agency is not. Fair warning.

Now back to the matter at hand. I am now backing off on my post of yesterday. Why? One look at the temps to our North this am tells me that this air mass has modified quite a bit. Only 21 in Montana? LOL!!!! It won't get to the low 20's in Houston with that going on. My guess is that IAH willnow see somewhere around 28 with 30 closer to I-10. Maybe some mid 20's near Conroe. As I said yesterday the winds were not going calm. That was the first clue.

I couldn't agree more. Also, I just checked out the current temps. This does not look like a major arctic blast based on a current US temp map. But I still expect upper 20's a IAH, in line with the NWS. I know a lot of people seemed angry at them not dropping their lows to the low 20's for Sunday morning - but it looks like they know what they're doing after all!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Think about the fact that we have several NWS mets who are members here. I for one, if I were constantly bashed by those that wished they had the knowledge and schooling I had for my profession, would take my leave and go elsewhere where my expertise would be appreciated. There is a huge difference between questioning a forecast and stating why and saying the NWS doesn't know what they are doing. One of the rules at S2K is that we do not BASH the public agencies. Questioning the forecasts is ok, bashing the agency is not. Fair warning.

Now back to the matter at hand. I am now backing off on my post of yesterday. Why? One look at the temps to our North this am tells me that this air mass has modified quite a bit. Only 21 in Montana? LOL!!!! It won't get to the low 20's in Houston with that going on. My guess is that IAH willnow see somewhere around 28 with 30 closer to I-10. Maybe some mid 20's near Conroe. As I said yesterday the winds were not going calm. That was the first clue.

the 21 is in eastern montana...this air mass is coming from areas further west. It is -17 in parts of wyoming (south of montana) at this hour.

[vbhoutex]

Think about the fact that we have several NWS mets who are members here. I for one, if I were constantly bashed by those that wished they had the knowledge and schooling I had for my profession, would take my leave and go elsewhere where my expertise would be appreciated. There is a huge difference between questioning a forecast and stating why and saying the NWS doesn't know what they are doing. One of the rules at S2K is that we do not BASH the public agencies. Questioning the forecasts is ok, bashing the agency is not. Fair warning.

Now back to the matter at hand. I am now backing off on my post of yesterday. Why? One look at the temps to our North this am tells me that this air mass has modified quite a bit. Only 21 in Montana? LOL!!!! It won't get to the low 20's in Houston with that going on. My guess is that IAH willnow see somewhere around 28 with 30 closer to I-10. Maybe some mid 20's near Conroe. As I said yesterday the winds were not going calm. That was the first clue.

the 21 is in eastern montana...this air mass is coming from areas further west. It is -17 in parts of wyoming (south of montana) at this hour.

And the elevation where that was taken is MUCH higher than our elevations down here. I haven't done a detailed study of the topography of Wyoming, but I dare say most of that state if not all of it is higher in elevation than most points in TX. Elevation does make a difference in temps. Most of the temps shown on the map aggie cutter posted are not even below zero and that is what we need up there if we are to expect low 20's down here.

[gboudx]

Just curious EWG and Tyler, will you give the NWS their due props if they are correct on the temps this weekend? I don't mind you high-fiveing each other if you're right, but you gotta give them their due if they are right.

[Portastorm]

Even JB in his mid-morning update today says the NGM model forecast of 21 for IAH is "overdone." FYI.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Even JB in his mid-morning update today says the NGM model forecast of 21 for IAH is "overdone." FYI.

Remember my prediction for IAH was 25-27...so I think that they will not be down to 21. The NWS forecast of 29-30 is probably too warm though.

[Stratosphere747]

Kinda like apples and oranges now...Anything near 30 in the Houston area is means to go into shut down mode.

[Tyler]

Think about the fact that we have several NWS mets who are members here. I for one, if I were constantly bashed by those that wished they had the knowledge and schooling I had for my profession, would take my leave and go elsewhere where my expertise would be appreciated. There is a huge difference between questioning a forecast and stating why and saying the NWS doesn't know what they are doing. One of the rules at S2K is that we do not BASH the public agencies. Questioning the forecasts is ok, bashing the agency is not. Fair warning.

Now back to the matter at hand. I am now backing off on my post of yesterday. Why? One look at the temps to our North this am tells me that this air mass has modified quite a bit. Only 21 in Montana? LOL!!!! It won't get to the low 20's in Houston with that going on. My guess is that IAH willnow see somewhere around 28 with 30 closer to I-10. Maybe some mid 20's near Conroe. As I said yesterday the winds were not going calm. That was the first clue.

When I was critisizing the NWS, I was not in any way "bashing". I was just giving my opinion. I think they do a great job, I just think they are a bit conservative sometimes, thats all.

Oh and also, I still believe IAH reaches mid 20's. Radiational cooling can really screw up a forecast...

[Tyler]

Just curious EWG and Tyler, will you give the NWS their due props if they are correct on the temps this weekend? I don't mind you high-fiveing each other if you're right, but you gotta give them their due if they are right.

The upper 20s for Harris county is ok, however, saying we are going to reach the mid 50s tommorow is bogus. We'll see, and I'll gladly eat crow if I'm wrong.

[Tyler]

Also, its snowing north of Dallas right now...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KGLE.html

[Tyler]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml

Here we go again guys. 12z GFS has a 1052 high in NW CAnada at 126 hours. 10 MB stronger than last run. I have a feeling we're in for another shot of Canadian air next weekend. GFS tries to stall the cold air from reaching here, however, thats a bias of the GFS, and it did it with this arctic intrusion as well.

And this time, air in Canada is 3x as cold as it is now...

[PTrackerLA]

The temperatures in the northern U.S. tell it all, this airmass simply isn't that cold. Yes it will be cold for our standards and it will likely be the coldest airmass of the season but from the talk on these boards you'd swear we were going to hit the single digits! NWS is forecasting a low of 28 Saturday night and I think that is right on the money. Shreveport is only forecasted to get down to 27 and they are usually a few degrees colder than we are. Mid 20's in Houston are out the question and the same implies for my area IMO.