Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Brent]

Also...they have been mentioning PERFECT radiational cooling all week, and then this morning they go and put 5-15mph winds in the forecast for Sat. night? sounds like they might be using that as an excuse for why they are not forecasting cooler. hmmm.

All this NWS bashing is starting to get irritating. Why would they use that as an excuse? What overall purpose does that serve? If you guys would analyse something in addition to 850 mb temperatures and the strength of the surface ridge axis, you could see why their forecast includes 15 mph wind for Saturday night. High pressure is still building in at that time, while cold air advection remains continuous, with winds backing towards the NW. By early Sunday morning, high pressure has ridged in and slackened the pressure gradient enough so that the surface might very well decouple.

Thank you!!!



It is beyond annoying.

[plainsman]

UPDATE FOR DALLAS FORT WORTH AREA::: looks like residents of dallas fort worth especially the northern parts along and north of 1 20 will see some light snow/sleet this afternoon, gainsville a north Dallas suberb has already changed to 34 degrees with light snow, dallas fort worth fell from the mid 50s to the mid 40s in 1 hour and continue to drop already low 40s in ft.worth, the NWS have a 50 to 60 percent chance of snow for the Dallas Fort worth area they just have straight up snow /sleet mix not a snow/rain mix they just updated from snow/rain to snow/sleet minutes ago... gainsville is only 1 hr. north of Dallas and is not to high in elevation about 700ft. the same as Dallas.. the most interesting part is their might be lightning and thunder sleet .. lightning strikes have already been reported in lubbock and are moving west.. i expect winter precip to start mixing in in the afternoon around 3 or 4.. temps are dropping like a rock ! every minute! anybody have any updates???

[Furious George]

Latest from NWS. They won't budge on the highs in the 50's. But with things looking to clear out, making room for sunny skies - I now have to agree. 28/58 sounds very possible for Sunday. Next week it looks like highs back up to near 70.

SOUTHEAST TEXAS ZONE FORECASTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1111 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2006


TXZ200-213-110115-
HARRIS-LIBERTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...HOUSTON...
LIBERTY...PASADENA
1111 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2006

.TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY
IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 100 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BREEZY...COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 10 TO
15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. COOLER. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTH
WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.

[Tyler]

Also...they have been mentioning PERFECT radiational cooling all week, and then this morning they go and put 5-15mph winds in the forecast for Sat. night? sounds like they might be using that as an excuse for why they are not forecasting cooler. hmmm.

All this NWS bashing is starting to get irritating. Why would they use that as an excuse? What overall purpose does that serve? If you guys would analyse something in addition to 850 mb temperatures and the strength of the surface ridge axis, you could see why their forecast includes 15 mph wind for Saturday night. High pressure is still building in at that time, while cold air advection remains continuous, with winds backing towards the NW. By early Sunday morning, high pressure has ridged in and slackened the pressure gradient enough so that the surface might very well decouple.

Thank you!!!



It is beyond annoying.

EWG, as well as I, are only giving out our opinions. What is a definition of a bash? I would think bashing is: "OMG NWS SUCKS THEY DONT KNOW HOW TO FORECAST MAN THEY ARE IDIOTS!!!" (and obviously we are not saying this at all) Bashing is not backing up your reasoning at all, and just shooting off the mouth a bunch of nonsense. However, EWG is simply giving his own opinion on the situation and why he thinks they are forecasting too warm. I really don't see a problem with that... Let him voice his opinion.

[Johnny]

Tyler, you have been a big part of this discussion so someone sooner or later is gonna make a remark or two. Water off a ducks back man!

[fwbbreeze]

from the national weather service in Mobile!!!
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/productview ... &version=0

FLZ006-110000-
COASTAL OKALOOSA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF.....FORT WALTON BEACH
653 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2006

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING
SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...BECOMING WINDY. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
BECOMING SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTY. CHANCE OF RAIN 100
PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...WINDY. PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTY. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY...COLDER. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S INLAND WITH LOWER 30S AT THE BEACHES. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 50. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S INLAND WITH LOWER
30S AT THE BEACHES.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 60.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS
AROUND 50. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.

$$

GARMON


This "arctic outbreak" has about as much punch in my area as when I leave the refrigerator door open by mistake. Would be VERY surprised to see the coastal areas of the Florida panhandle fall below 30 degrees.

fwbbreeze

[Furious George]

As houtex pointed out above, this is not the mother of all air masses. The source region of this air mass in Canada is only in the teens at this hour. Actually, that is probably above normal for that part of North America...

http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag226.html

Seems temps have really warmed up in locations well behind the front. OKC already at 47 and increasing when projected high was 46. Amarillo near their forecast high of 37 also. This is a good sign that Houston will see highs well into the 50's Sat and Sunday.

[Brent]

This "arctic outbreak" has about as much punch in my area as when I leave the refrigerator door open by mistake. Would be VERY surprised to see the coastal areas of the Florida panhandle fall below 30 degrees.

That's been my point all week. This isn't a big deal for this time of year. It's even less of a big deal because it will be occurring on the weekend.

[Tyler]

This "arctic outbreak" has about as much punch in my area as when I leave the refrigerator door open by mistake. Would be VERY surprised to see the coastal areas of the Florida panhandle fall below 30 degrees.

That's been my point all week. This isn't a big deal for this time of year. It's even less of a big deal because it will be occurring on the weekend.

For you, no, for Houston, yes, it is a big deal for this time of year. You don't see 20s in February that often...

[Tyler]

As houtex pointed out above, this is not the mother of all air masses. The source region of this air mass in Canada is only in the teens at this hour. Actually, that is probably above normal for that part of North America...

http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag226.html

Seems temps have really warmed up in locations well behind the front. OKC already at 47 and increasing when projected high was 46. Amarillo near their forecast high of 37 also. This is a good sign that Houston will see highs well into the 50's Sat and Sunday.

Who cares what temperatures are right now, that has nothing to do with tommorow. Thats becuase the cold air is really lagging behind the front. All through tommorow, cold air will continue to be funneled through the plains to SE TX. We're not going to be well into the 50s tommorow.

[Furious George]

As houtex pointed out above, this is not the mother of all air masses. The source region of this air mass in Canada is only in the teens at this hour. Actually, that is probably above normal for that part of North America...

http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag226.html

Seems temps have really warmed up in locations well behind the front. OKC already at 47 and increasing when projected high was 46. Amarillo near their forecast high of 37 also. This is a good sign that Houston will see highs well into the 50's Sat and Sunday.

Who cares what temperatures are right now, that has nothing to do with tommorow. Thats becuase the cold air is really lagging behind the front. All through tommorow, cold air will continue to be funneled through the plains to SE TX. We're not going to be well into the 50s tommorow.

You might want to check out that map again. And check out the trends in temp behind the front today - temps are going up. It is 50 degrees in Norman, Ok (yes 50). With Sunny skis tomorrow - do you honestly think we wont hit the 50's. Try not to let your desire for cold air bias your opinion.

[Tyler]

As houtex pointed out above, this is not the mother of all air masses. The source region of this air mass in Canada is only in the teens at this hour. Actually, that is probably above normal for that part of North America...

http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag226.html

Seems temps have really warmed up in locations well behind the front. OKC already at 47 and increasing when projected high was 46. Amarillo near their forecast high of 37 also. This is a good sign that Houston will see highs well into the 50's Sat and Sunday.

Who cares what temperatures are right now, that has nothing to do with tommorow. Thats becuase the cold air is really lagging behind the front. All through tommorow, cold air will continue to be funneled through the plains to SE TX. We're not going to be well into the 50s tommorow.

You might want to check out that map again. And check out the trends in temp behind the front today - temps are going up. It is 50 degrees in Norman, Ok (yes 50). With Sunny skis tomorrow - do you honestly think we wont hit the 50's. Try not to let your desire for cold air bias your opinion.

Try not to put words in my mouth. I never said we were not going to hit 50. I just said we aren't going to be "well into the 50s". Lower 50s at best.

[Tyler]

I need EWG back in here, everyone is ganging up on me...

[Furious George]

As houtex pointed out above, this is not the mother of all air masses. The source region of this air mass in Canada is only in the teens at this hour. Actually, that is probably above normal for that part of North America...

http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag226.html

Seems temps have really warmed up in locations well behind the front. OKC already at 47 and increasing when projected high was 46. Amarillo near their forecast high of 37 also. This is a good sign that Houston will see highs well into the 50's Sat and Sunday.

Who cares what temperatures are right now, that has nothing to do with tommorow. Thats becuase the cold air is really lagging behind the front. All through tommorow, cold air will continue to be funneled through the plains to SE TX. We're not going to be well into the 50s tommorow.

You might want to check out that map again. And check out the trends in temp behind the front today - temps are going up. It is 50 degrees in Norman, Ok (yes 50). With Sunny skis tomorrow - do you honestly think we wont hit the 50's. Try not to let your desire for cold air bias your opinion.

Try not to put words in my mouth. I never said we were not going to hit 50. I just said we aren't going to be "well into the 50s". Lower 50s at best.

Actually you did, but that was an old quote when models were trending very cold. Now that you say 50's is a possibility (woohoo), I'm going to stop ganging up on you and call a truce. I'll even back you up and agree that 20's in Feb is not common - I think the last time we saw 20's in Feb was in '02.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I need EWG back in here, everyone is ganging up on me...

Thou shall not speak ill will of the NWS. They are always right. They are like the post office. They get the mail everywhere on time.

I don't think Tyler, EWG or others that disagree with the NWS IN SOME OF THEIR FORECASTS is necessarly bashing them. If anything I have seen people on here bash some of the private mets out there more than the NWS and they don't get called out as bashing them.


I guess it's a rule I wasn't aware of and maybe not you too, Tyler.

[Tyler]

And we watch another possible cold blast (this one obviously colder) late next weekend...

Day 7 ECMWF 850MB Temps:



Day 7 GFS 850MB Temps:



Cold air will NOT be a problem with this cold blast, the cold air will be on our side of the pole this time, as bitterly cold temps flow from the pole down through Canada, and take aim on the lower 48. -30C in Canada folks! Don't mess with that, my friend. How cold do we get? And will it make it this far south? Well, its too early to say, we'll just have to watch. More fun cold tracking ahead!

[Tyler]

As houtex pointed out above, this is not the mother of all air masses. The source region of this air mass in Canada is only in the teens at this hour. Actually, that is probably above normal for that part of North America...

http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag226.html

Seems temps have really warmed up in locations well behind the front. OKC already at 47 and increasing when projected high was 46. Amarillo near their forecast high of 37 also. This is a good sign that Houston will see highs well into the 50's Sat and Sunday.

Who cares what temperatures are right now, that has nothing to do with tommorow. Thats becuase the cold air is really lagging behind the front. All through tommorow, cold air will continue to be funneled through the plains to SE TX. We're not going to be well into the 50s tommorow.

You might want to check out that map again. And check out the trends in temp behind the front today - temps are going up. It is 50 degrees in Norman, Ok (yes 50). With Sunny skis tomorrow - do you honestly think we wont hit the 50's. Try not to let your desire for cold air bias your opinion.

Try not to put words in my mouth. I never said we were not going to hit 50. I just said we aren't going to be "well into the 50s". Lower 50s at best.

Actually you did, but that was an old quote when models were trending very cold. Now that you say 50's is a possibility (woohoo), I'm going to stop ganging up on you and call a truce. I'll even back you up and agree that 20's in Feb is not common - I think the last time we saw 20's in Feb was in '02.

Yes, the air isn't as cold as I thought it was going to be, but its still not going to be as warm as ya'll think its going to be. Good radiational cooling Saturday night will yield mid 20's for areas north of IH-10. If I bust, I'll eat crow!

[CajunMama]

Why don't we just stop with the back and forth bickering and just wait and see what it's going to do. I'm tired of watching this thread.

[Tyler]

I need EWG back in here, everyone is ganging up on me...

Thou shall not speak ill will of the NWS. They are always right. They are like the post office. They get the mail everywhere on time.

I don't think Tyler, EWG or others that disagree with the NWS IN SOME OF THEIR FORECASTS is necessarly bashing them. If anything I have seen people on here bash some of the private mets out there more than the NWS and they don't get called out as bashing them.


I guess it's a rule I wasn't aware of and maybe not you too, Tyler.

Thanks cc. I respect the NWS more than I probably look like I do, since its hard to convey emotions on a message board, I was just (as well as EWG) giving out opinions on why I think they are going to warm. Not bashing.

[Tyler]

Why don't we just stop with the back and forth bickering and just wait and see what it's going to do. I'm tired of watching this thread.

Don't worry, its friendly bickering on my end. I think everyone on here likes to debate, we just get a little carried away sometimes.